Tag: The Fourth Turning

Things Are Going Well With The Newest Attempt At A Third Draft Of The Novel

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

I think the only way I’m actually going to get past the first few chapters is just…not look at the first few chapters of the third draft once I finish them. Just wing it when it comes to consistency.

My dream is to write a novel as accessible and popular as The Girl With The Dragon Tattoo.

Things are set up now that I should be able to methodically go through at least the first half of the novel without feeling forced to re-read everything from the beginning. I had a real problem the last time I thought I had transitioned from the first to second acts of the third draft to the point that I went back to the very beginning and made some structural changes.

I’m pretty pleased, in general, with what I’ve come up with. I continue to worry about things I just can’t control. The rise of AI and the possibility of The Fourth Turning happening at some point over the next 18 months weigh heavily on my mind. But, as I’ve written, finishing this novel is existential.

I’m going to try to finish the third draft of this novel not later than April, but it might be closer to July. THEN I have to worry about finding the funds to get someone to look over the novel before I query an agent. And even then, I have to worry about an agenda doing due dilligence on me and thinking I’m not only a crackpot, but a smelly CIS white male who writes from a female POV sometimes.

I do still have a few scifi concepts I want to work on. It’s just so difficult for me to stop fixating on the mystery-thriller long enough to do such a thing. But I really do need to do it ASAP. I don’t like having all my eggs in one basket.

Comparing To Trump to Navalny Is Fucking Insane

By Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

The late Alexei Navalny.

Alexei Navalny’s tragic death has caused the usual MAGA suspects to compare his murder to what’s going on with Trump these days. Or, even more stupidly, MAGA will do “whataboutism” of pointing out the uncertain nature of Jeffery Epstein’s death in prison.

Ugh.

And Tucker Carlson pretty much gave Putin a pass for what happened to Navalny. Double ugh. The whole thing is fucked up. But it does give us a pretty solid indication of how bad things will get if Trump is re-elected.

I continue to predict that about 1 million wealthy, smug Twitter liberals will flee the country starting in late 2024, early 2025 should Trump get re-elected. That will be just the beginning as Trump begins to put the squeeze on anyone he sees as either a potential political opponent or critic.

What’s so bonkers about all of this is, of course, the fact that if Trump is really ham-handed in the implementation of MAGA tyranny….oh boy. All bets are off as to how that particular situation is finally fixed. If Trump is a total bonkers tyrant starting in 2025….it’s at least POSSIBLE that Blues might rise up against him in some sort of General Strike that might lead to a Glorious Revolution.

But I have my doubts — and I’m not advocating anything. I hate violence of any sort.

Yet I am worried. Very worried.

A Brief Remaining Window Of Opportunity: Developing, Writing & Finishing This Novel Is Existential To Me

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

So. I have a window of opportunity before either The Fourth Turning destroys the country and / or AI makes all human generated entertainment moot. So, I have to hurry. At this point, finishing this novel is now existential and, to some extent, irrational.

I should just give up and stare at my ceiling all day until I die of boredom. I suppose that’s what a “normal” person would do — just give up.

But fuck that. I’m not normal. Never have been. So, once more into the breach. Now that I’m sober, I feel in a better position to sprint. All I want to do is to express my humanity by telling a great story that one — one! — person who isn’t related to me or who doesn’t know me personally finishes and really likes and wants to read more.

That, in my mind, will prove that I don’t suck as a writer.

MAGA Is American National Socialism

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

The issue of how socialist the Nazis were is a tricky one whenever it comes up. The Nazis being socialists is something that far Right American groups throw around whenever they want to shit on the center-Left.

What people miss about the Nazis and socialism is the Nazis were NATIONAL socialists. They were far Right nationalistic group that wanted to take over the world. But they *were* socialist, just not in the way that could be used to attack center-Left people in the US.

It’s hard for an American in the 21st Century to understand the complexities of why Hitler added “National Socialist” to the National Socialist German Worker’s Party’s name. But he did. And he really fucking hated both traditional socialists and Communists.

But the issue for me is — MAGA is American National Socialism. It’s even more complex than that, though. MAGA really doesn’t have any ideology other than whatever the fuck Trump “truths” that particular day. And that’s something interesting about the future of American National Socialism — what happens when fat fuck Trump shuffles off this mortal coil?

Who will take up his bonkers mantel and will the base of the Republican Party have the same about of absolute fidelity to him or her? A lot depends on how far we’ve transitioned into a MAGA-themed autocracy when ding-dong goes up to that big fast-food joint in the sky.

I do think we need to keep any eye on MTG. That woman is far more sly that any of us might otherwise believe. And I have long thought that we might one day live under a “Velvet Glove” autocracy with our tyrant being a MAGA woman, not man.

Only time will tell, I suppose.

Biden Being So Frail Is Historical Bad Ju-Ju

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

I’m very uneasy about what is going on with President Biden. He’s demonstrably old and frail — if mentally still smart as a tack. My fear is that things will get so bad with Biden that we’re going to have to invoke the 25th Amendment in some way.

I continue to believe that late 2024, early 2025 could be one of the momentous few months in American history. The fact that Biden is so frail and old just as a number of major historical trends are all coming to a head all at the same time. And remember, Trump is chomping at the bit to exploit any possible weakness that might occur in late 2024, early 2025.

Look up the election of 1872.

If we manage to escape this catastrophe, I will be very pleased. I’m just worried. Really worried. But maybe the strange thing to happen will be not that something shocking happens, but rather….we muddle through.

I dunno. It will be curious going forward.

Joe Biden Is Elderly & Frail — But He’s Still Better Than Deranged Ding-Dong Trump

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

It’s times like these that make me think we live in a simulation. I say this because all of the conditions are there for late 2024, early 2025 to up there with 1917 – 1918 in sheer number of astonishing and historic things happening in a very, very short amount of time.

Just imagine how the history books might describe what we’re careening into. We have an elderly, if very capable president doddering around while a dangerous and deranged would-be fascist dictator is absolutely determined to become president again. It’s like something out of Shakespeare.

Things are so bad that I’m extremely worried about our nation’s fate from the moment the ballots are printed until the moment the 2024 president election is certified in early 2025. Trump is such an avatar, a vessel for white Christian rage that if Something Bad happens to Biden — especially after a very close election the fall of 2024 that he may have lost….HOLY SHIT.

Look up Horace Greeley and the election of 1872.

Total. Complete. Chaos.

And that might set off a chain of events whereby the whole world goes tits up and about 1 billion people die because of all the nukes that start to whiz around as the US consumes itself because “vibes.”

I just don’t know what to tell you. All the signs indicate that late 2024, early 2025 could be EXTREMELY DRAMATIC on a macro historical basis. But I can’t predict the future, so, who knows. It could be that we just somehow muddle through like we always do and nothing of note will happen.

But the thing about Trump and his plans for a second term is he definitely seems to be determined press some pretty important issues to the breaking point. They say you go bankrupt gradually then all at once and that’s exactly what might happen in late 2024, early 2025.

Or not. Again — I can’t predict the future. I couldn’t predict a global pandemic would be enough to stop Trump in 2020 and there are any number of Black Swan events that might happen that might make all my hysterical fears seem silly in hindsight.

About 38% Of The American Electorate Wants A White Christian MAGA Ethnostate

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

I just refuse to believe that our only option at this point is to “vote harder.” Everything I’ve read about what happened in Germany indicates there is no historical 1-to-1 between Germany 1933 and America 2025. And it’s not just beyond the obvious, “there’s never a 1-to-1” between historical events.

The reasons why about 38% of the electorate wants a white Christian ethnostate instead of a democracy are just really, really different from why the Nazis — barely — took power in January 1933. Where is the MAGA SA to knock the heads of Blues who don’t want to abide by fascism? The list goes on.

The issue for me is that too many people think that if Trump comes to power again and he goes full tyrant on us that all the Blues in the USA will simply shrug let him consolidate power and fucking snatch people off the street because he doesn’t like them.

These people are being extremely short sighed and simplistic. Trump has already caused some pretty unprecedented things to happen, there may come a point where his corruption of the administration of the leavers of power grows so bad that, on principle, the populace might rise up and depose him. (I’m not advocating anything, just musing. It really grates on my nerves when people refuse to contemplate how we might combat MAGA autocracy if Trump becomes POTUS again.)

Anyway, in general, we’re fucked going forward. There is a chance that Trump will get re-elected and that will be that. We’ll become a white Christian ethnostate and I’ll die in a Trump-branded ICE concentration camp because I won’t shut the fuck up about how I think Trump is a fucking cocksucker.

I Don’t Think Believing It’s Possible America Will Fall Into Revolution & Civil War Because of Tyrant Trump is ‘Optimism Bias’

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

I’m still smarting over some fucking Twitter liberal putting me on blast for simply believing that it won’t be the of the story if Trump wins re-election in the fall. This nattering nabob of negativism seems to think that our only choice is to “vote harder” and it’s a foregone conclusion that we’ll turn into German 1933 the moment Trump has power again.

I find this extremely aggravating. I don’t think it’s “optimistic” to suggest that SOME SORT of severe reaction will happen within Blue parts of the USA if Trump goes full tyrant. Seems pretty dark to me. Now, obviously, if Trump goes full tyrant, there’s a chance that about 1 million smug Twitter liberals will leave the country.

But that still leaves a shit ton of very angry Blues spread across the third largest nation by geography and population. I don’t want to have to depose the POTUS in a revolution then have to worry about a civil war when Red States leave the Union in protest.

That would not be fun or cool or “optimistic.”

Anyway. I am not prepared to give up if Trump wins. For me, it won’t be the end of the story, it will be a new beginning in which we will all be tested and forced to figure out what we will risk our lives and scared honor IN THE REAL WORLD to protect.

Not advocating anything.

It’s Like We’ve Given Up

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

I don’t know what to tell you, folks, other than maybe “Watch out for that last step.” Now, in February of 2024, it definitely seems as though the only way we prevent Trump from being POTUS again is some sort of Black Swan event that I just can’t predict.

I continue to believe that people are looking at the potential of a Second Trump Administration all wrong. It will be so tyrannical and such an aberration compared to anything we’ve ever seen before that I don’t think it’s “optimism bias” to think the reaction to Trump’s ham-handed tyranny could be just as unprecedented.

As I keep saying, America 2025 is NOT Germany 1933.

At a minimum, it will take time for Trump to build out an SA-like infrastructure to remind Blues to keep their heads down and mouths shut. I keep musing on the idea that Trump is somehow deposed in a Glorious Revolution, then that, in turn prompts a Second American Civil War.

That, in turn, causes World War 3.

And, yet, I just can’t predict the future. No one can. And there is every reason to believe that either Biden is peacefully re-elected, or Trump really does get to be a tyrannical autocrat and we all just lulz it.

Though I do think that about 1 million smug Twitter liberals will leave the country once it becomes clear that Trump is actually going to do what he was elected to do in 2016 — be an autocrat.

Why I’m Really Worried About The United States In Late 2024, Early 2025

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

A number of things are coming together at the same time to destabilize the United States. Everything from negative polarization to income inequality is eating away at the very fabric of the greatest nation in world history.

I just don’t know if we’re going to make it through the 2024 presidential silly season.

There is every reason to believe we will, but even if we do, we could very well peacefully slide into autocracy under a second Trump Administration. They key thing for me is the Republican Party wants an autocratic white Christian ethnostate sooooo fucking bad that, in a sense, Trump is all that stands in the way of the getting their goal.

Not because he’ll lose, but because if he wins, he could very well rile everyone up so much in the ham-handed manner in which he tries to establish that autocratic white Christian ethnostate that there’s a “Glorious Revolution” by Blues and he’s deposed — not that I’m advocating anything!

Anyway. A lot is going wrong in the US right now. But for my worst fears to come true — that the US would collapse into revolution and / or civil war — a lot more shit would have to go wrong.

Hopefully, at a minimum, we’ll just peacefully turn into an autocracy and I’ll figure out some way to leave the country.