Tag: The Fourth Turning

MAGA Is American National Socialism

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

The issue of how socialist the Nazis were is a tricky one whenever it comes up. The Nazis being socialists is something that far Right American groups throw around whenever they want to shit on the center-Left.

What people miss about the Nazis and socialism is the Nazis were NATIONAL socialists. They were far Right nationalistic group that wanted to take over the world. But they *were* socialist, just not in the way that could be used to attack center-Left people in the US.

It’s hard for an American in the 21st Century to understand the complexities of why Hitler added “National Socialist” to the National Socialist German Worker’s Party’s name. But he did. And he really fucking hated both traditional socialists and Communists.

But the issue for me is — MAGA is American National Socialism. It’s even more complex than that, though. MAGA really doesn’t have any ideology other than whatever the fuck Trump “truths” that particular day. And that’s something interesting about the future of American National Socialism — what happens when fat fuck Trump shuffles off this mortal coil?

Who will take up his bonkers mantel and will the base of the Republican Party have the same about of absolute fidelity to him or her? A lot depends on how far we’ve transitioned into a MAGA-themed autocracy when ding-dong goes up to that big fast-food joint in the sky.

I do think we need to keep any eye on MTG. That woman is far more sly that any of us might otherwise believe. And I have long thought that we might one day live under a “Velvet Glove” autocracy with our tyrant being a MAGA woman, not man.

Only time will tell, I suppose.

Biden Being So Frail Is Historical Bad Ju-Ju

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

I’m very uneasy about what is going on with President Biden. He’s demonstrably old and frail — if mentally still smart as a tack. My fear is that things will get so bad with Biden that we’re going to have to invoke the 25th Amendment in some way.

I continue to believe that late 2024, early 2025 could be one of the momentous few months in American history. The fact that Biden is so frail and old just as a number of major historical trends are all coming to a head all at the same time. And remember, Trump is chomping at the bit to exploit any possible weakness that might occur in late 2024, early 2025.

Look up the election of 1872.

If we manage to escape this catastrophe, I will be very pleased. I’m just worried. Really worried. But maybe the strange thing to happen will be not that something shocking happens, but rather….we muddle through.

I dunno. It will be curious going forward.

Joe Biden Is Elderly & Frail — But He’s Still Better Than Deranged Ding-Dong Trump

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

It’s times like these that make me think we live in a simulation. I say this because all of the conditions are there for late 2024, early 2025 to up there with 1917 – 1918 in sheer number of astonishing and historic things happening in a very, very short amount of time.

Just imagine how the history books might describe what we’re careening into. We have an elderly, if very capable president doddering around while a dangerous and deranged would-be fascist dictator is absolutely determined to become president again. It’s like something out of Shakespeare.

Things are so bad that I’m extremely worried about our nation’s fate from the moment the ballots are printed until the moment the 2024 president election is certified in early 2025. Trump is such an avatar, a vessel for white Christian rage that if Something Bad happens to Biden — especially after a very close election the fall of 2024 that he may have lost….HOLY SHIT.

Look up Horace Greeley and the election of 1872.

Total. Complete. Chaos.

And that might set off a chain of events whereby the whole world goes tits up and about 1 billion people die because of all the nukes that start to whiz around as the US consumes itself because “vibes.”

I just don’t know what to tell you. All the signs indicate that late 2024, early 2025 could be EXTREMELY DRAMATIC on a macro historical basis. But I can’t predict the future, so, who knows. It could be that we just somehow muddle through like we always do and nothing of note will happen.

But the thing about Trump and his plans for a second term is he definitely seems to be determined press some pretty important issues to the breaking point. They say you go bankrupt gradually then all at once and that’s exactly what might happen in late 2024, early 2025.

Or not. Again — I can’t predict the future. I couldn’t predict a global pandemic would be enough to stop Trump in 2020 and there are any number of Black Swan events that might happen that might make all my hysterical fears seem silly in hindsight.

About 38% Of The American Electorate Wants A White Christian MAGA Ethnostate

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

I just refuse to believe that our only option at this point is to “vote harder.” Everything I’ve read about what happened in Germany indicates there is no historical 1-to-1 between Germany 1933 and America 2025. And it’s not just beyond the obvious, “there’s never a 1-to-1” between historical events.

The reasons why about 38% of the electorate wants a white Christian ethnostate instead of a democracy are just really, really different from why the Nazis — barely — took power in January 1933. Where is the MAGA SA to knock the heads of Blues who don’t want to abide by fascism? The list goes on.

The issue for me is that too many people think that if Trump comes to power again and he goes full tyrant on us that all the Blues in the USA will simply shrug let him consolidate power and fucking snatch people off the street because he doesn’t like them.

These people are being extremely short sighed and simplistic. Trump has already caused some pretty unprecedented things to happen, there may come a point where his corruption of the administration of the leavers of power grows so bad that, on principle, the populace might rise up and depose him. (I’m not advocating anything, just musing. It really grates on my nerves when people refuse to contemplate how we might combat MAGA autocracy if Trump becomes POTUS again.)

Anyway, in general, we’re fucked going forward. There is a chance that Trump will get re-elected and that will be that. We’ll become a white Christian ethnostate and I’ll die in a Trump-branded ICE concentration camp because I won’t shut the fuck up about how I think Trump is a fucking cocksucker.

I Don’t Think Believing It’s Possible America Will Fall Into Revolution & Civil War Because of Tyrant Trump is ‘Optimism Bias’

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

I’m still smarting over some fucking Twitter liberal putting me on blast for simply believing that it won’t be the of the story if Trump wins re-election in the fall. This nattering nabob of negativism seems to think that our only choice is to “vote harder” and it’s a foregone conclusion that we’ll turn into German 1933 the moment Trump has power again.

I find this extremely aggravating. I don’t think it’s “optimistic” to suggest that SOME SORT of severe reaction will happen within Blue parts of the USA if Trump goes full tyrant. Seems pretty dark to me. Now, obviously, if Trump goes full tyrant, there’s a chance that about 1 million smug Twitter liberals will leave the country.

But that still leaves a shit ton of very angry Blues spread across the third largest nation by geography and population. I don’t want to have to depose the POTUS in a revolution then have to worry about a civil war when Red States leave the Union in protest.

That would not be fun or cool or “optimistic.”

Anyway. I am not prepared to give up if Trump wins. For me, it won’t be the end of the story, it will be a new beginning in which we will all be tested and forced to figure out what we will risk our lives and scared honor IN THE REAL WORLD to protect.

Not advocating anything.

It’s Like We’ve Given Up

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

I don’t know what to tell you, folks, other than maybe “Watch out for that last step.” Now, in February of 2024, it definitely seems as though the only way we prevent Trump from being POTUS again is some sort of Black Swan event that I just can’t predict.

I continue to believe that people are looking at the potential of a Second Trump Administration all wrong. It will be so tyrannical and such an aberration compared to anything we’ve ever seen before that I don’t think it’s “optimism bias” to think the reaction to Trump’s ham-handed tyranny could be just as unprecedented.

As I keep saying, America 2025 is NOT Germany 1933.

At a minimum, it will take time for Trump to build out an SA-like infrastructure to remind Blues to keep their heads down and mouths shut. I keep musing on the idea that Trump is somehow deposed in a Glorious Revolution, then that, in turn prompts a Second American Civil War.

That, in turn, causes World War 3.

And, yet, I just can’t predict the future. No one can. And there is every reason to believe that either Biden is peacefully re-elected, or Trump really does get to be a tyrannical autocrat and we all just lulz it.

Though I do think that about 1 million smug Twitter liberals will leave the country once it becomes clear that Trump is actually going to do what he was elected to do in 2016 — be an autocrat.

Why I’m Really Worried About The United States In Late 2024, Early 2025

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

A number of things are coming together at the same time to destabilize the United States. Everything from negative polarization to income inequality is eating away at the very fabric of the greatest nation in world history.

I just don’t know if we’re going to make it through the 2024 presidential silly season.

There is every reason to believe we will, but even if we do, we could very well peacefully slide into autocracy under a second Trump Administration. They key thing for me is the Republican Party wants an autocratic white Christian ethnostate sooooo fucking bad that, in a sense, Trump is all that stands in the way of the getting their goal.

Not because he’ll lose, but because if he wins, he could very well rile everyone up so much in the ham-handed manner in which he tries to establish that autocratic white Christian ethnostate that there’s a “Glorious Revolution” by Blues and he’s deposed — not that I’m advocating anything!

Anyway. A lot is going wrong in the US right now. But for my worst fears to come true — that the US would collapse into revolution and / or civil war — a lot more shit would have to go wrong.

Hopefully, at a minimum, we’ll just peacefully turn into an autocracy and I’ll figure out some way to leave the country.

The United States Has a Severe Problem With Corrosive ‘Vibes’

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

America is growing more and more unstable. The sad thing about it is, that instability boils down to something a nebulous and vacuous as “vibes.” Both Red and Blue have reason to resent the union that we find ourselves in. I will note, of course, that Reds are far bigger crybabies than Blues when they don’t get their way or if they feel slighted.

What’s the most surreal element to all of this is Reds are ascendant politically on a macro basis. But they are totally oblivious to this fact. They are so shortsighted and angry at any perceived slight — even though all the political momentum is on their side — that they’re chomping at the bit to start a civil war.

That’s probably the biggest mistake I’ve made when trying to game out potential civil war scenarios — Reds are acting irrationally. They have no political patience and they could very well shoot themselves in the foot and start a civil war even though they are well on their way to getting everything they want if they’re just take a long-term approach to their goals.

It’s interesting when talking to my center-Right relatives how they perceive the center-Left. They seem to think that center-Left people hate Apple Pie and motherhood. They believe that all center-Left people are gay or trans people who hate want to commit infanticide then crow about it on social media.

It’s deeply weird and based almost exclusively on vibes generated within the Right-wing echo chamber of podcasts and Fox News. (Even though a lot of Right wing people like to poo-poo Fox News, the network still sets, a general way, the agenda of the Right wing echo chamber.)

Anyway, I really, really hope that we just muddle through things like we always do (at least have in the past.) But I’m starting to have my doubts.

What Can’t Be Said

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

A sign that the United States is growing more and more unstable is it’s growing more and more difficult for people who disagree on policy to talk to each other. It’s difficult to say what is obviously true when talking to some conservatives, which is, “Hey, you’re a bigot.”

You just can’t do it. If you mention racism or bigotry being the core reason why this or that thing is generating so much fear and hate within someone who should know better, it would instantly end the conversation.

But, here we are — sexism, bigotry and racism are now generating a huge amount of political power within conservative ranks. That’s one of the reasons why the two sides are receding from each other at such an alarming rate — conservatives are very touchy — maybe even a bit delusional — whenever the issue of why, exactly they’re so upset about the “crisis at the border” or abortion.

I don’t know what to tell you — either we collectively dodge a bullet and just muddle through another four years….or we don’t.

Birthright Citizenship Is In Serious Danger If Trump Is Re-Elected

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

One of the absolutely bonkers element of any second Trump Administration is the fact that he will be gunning for something we all taken for granted — birthright citizenship. This make me both very angry and very alarmed because the first thing fascists — like the Nazis — do is start to fuck with who is a “citizen.”


I have conversations with my far more conservative relatives — whom I love dearly — and their reaction to the potential demise of something as fundimental as birthright citizenship is a real life shrug emoji. They just don’t care. All they care about is “securing the border” to the point that when you press them about how they plan to deport 20 million undocumented people — they just laugh.

They don’t care, they just want it to happen, damn the consequences.

So, it definitely seems as though if Trump is re-elected that many of my dystopian fears for his first term will come to fruition. I just don’t know what to tell you folks. It definitely FEELS like I may very well lose my citizenship and find myself in a Trump-branded concentration camp at some point after 2025 if I can’t manage to sell the novel I’m working on and get the hell out of the country.