Category: Trumplandia

What Is Wrong With You People (Who Want A Second American Civil War)


by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

I just don’t get people who actually want a Second American Civil War. Talk about the dumbest timeline! If you have a political belief that causes you to want not only mass murder but the potential end of human civilization through a World War 3, maybe you need to rethink what you believe.

The issue is — once a civil war started in the United States two thing would happen. One, the two sides would grow significantly more radical and would likely steal WMD from American military bases. The other is, the entire post-World War 2 liberal order would collapse and WW3 would begin.

So, yeah.

It seems as though what people who want a civil war want is to be able to wave a wand where they don’t have to worry about being “canceled” for just being conservative. Or something. They simply can not accept how fast America is changing on social issues and so they would rather risk the lives of millions than accept, say, gay marriage or the sexual agency of women. That’s kind of deep. But I guess if all you do is watch Newsmax and OANN, then there’s not much else you can expect.

I am obsessed with my Webstats and it definitely seems as though a lot of Southern cocksuckers really do think “the South will rise again.” Speaking as a New South Southerner — grow up, you idiots. Accept the modern world. I can’t help that you’re in too invested in the MAGA personality death cult.

Do I think there’s going to be a civil war? I honestly don’t know. But I will say if Rudy’s SCOTUS gambit works at this late date or if some idiot blows something up in protest to a Biden Administration, all bets are off. Anything, but anything is possible.

The End Of The Beginning Of The End Of The Trump Era


by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

I’m so happy it appears as though Trump may actually leave office. We still have a long, long, long, long ways to go. But at least this is the end of the beginning. Anyway, how is this possible, you ask. I thought autocrats “never lose.”

  1. He’s lazy and incompetent.
    There’s a reason why Trump is a “would be” autocrat — he really is just an empty suit. While Republicans have gotten pretty much everything they could possibly want with Trump because of their control of the Senate, to date, he hasn’t been able to take it to the next level. I overestimated his political ability and underestimated the power of American civil society.
  2. He didn’t strike before the election was called.
    If he was really the political genius that Maggie Haberman and — apparently me — think he is, he would have goaded Bill Barr into striking before the election was called. He probably could have “not lost” at SCOTUS had he done that. But, to date, Bill Barr has sat on his hands. It’s not over yet, of course.
  3. All his actions were tactical
    I really screwed this one up. Even Rudy’s usual disinformation tactics couldn’t overcome the dead hand of politics once the election was called. It’s surreal that they waited until AFTER the election was called to try to start ratfucking. There was no over all, grand strategy other than “just win.”
  4. It’s not over yet.
    I’m cautiously optimistic. But we’re one political bombing away from the country descending into civil war. But maybe, in the end, we’ll get through this. Trump could still do “something weird” (or destructive) on his way out the door.

Rudy’s SCOTUS ‘Political 9/11’ Gambit


by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarer

What gets me is people like Chris Christie don’t understand what Rudy and his goons are really up to. The point is not to win anything in court, the point is to make the average person, who is too busy raising their kids and paying their mortgage to worry about politics, think what’s going on is “just like 2000.”

It is not, as you may know, “just like 2000.”

The 2000 race was decided by about 500 odd votes. Under the conditions of 2000, Trump has lost, lost, lost. Rudy knows that if he can make it seem as though the result of the election is still up in the air — which isn’t — then they have a shot at pulling off a “political 9/11” at SCOTUS should the opportunity arise.

Or, put another way, they want to create enough doubt within the center-Right bullshit echochamber that about 50% of the population listens to, that it gives cover to MAGA legislators in Michigan and Pennsyliva to simply nullify the certification of votes. If that works, then we have a coup.

It will be given a thin cover of “this is just like 1876,” but it’ll be a coup. It goes to CONGRESS, NOT THE HOUSE, and because the law on disputed Electors is shit and Congress is split….it goes to SCOTUS and Trump “doesn’t lose.”

That’s the disinformation strategy that Rudy is has in mind right now. I’m not being hysterical to say this strategy has worked over and over and over and over and over and over again for Rudy the last four years, so makes sense that it will work YET AGAIN.

The stakes are a lot higher, but the results will be the same — Trump lives to fight another day.

Now, of course, there is zero overarching strategy to any of this other than “just win,” so when they do “win,” there’s probably going to be a civil war / revolution and a lot — maybe a huge amount — of Americans on both sides will die for no damn reason.

I hope I’m wrong. I’m often — almost always — wrong. But at least be aware of what’s really going on right now.

‘I’d Like You To Do Us A Favor, Though:’ What If Trump Hosts The Electoral College At The White House?


by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

I’ve been so busy assuming the Far Right would dox electors, that it didn’t occur to me that Trump might out of the blue call them all to the White House for a little tet-a-tet. And there’s absolutely nothing we could do about it.

We haven’t even gotten past the Certification Crisis, either. So, it could end there. Trump could throw the election into Congress, then SCOTUS then win. But if we get past this Certification Crisis, then we might see the surreal imagine of all the Electors spending the weekend at the White House or Camp David for the specific purpose of Trump attempting to glandhand them into voting for him.

Hell, he might even try to bribe them.

“I’d like you to do us a favor, though….”

While it’s still very possible that out of the blue a Right Wing insane person might murder an Elector before any of this can happen, I guess what I’m trying to say is — Electors are the weakest link of the Constitution because they’re physical human beings.

Autocrats Never Lose: What If You Held A Second American Civil War & And Nobody Came?


by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

We have to be honest with ourselves, it’s possible that as we speak, Trump dangling sweet, sweet cash in front of Republican legislators from states like Michigan and Pennsylvania as a form of quid pro quo for them to throw the election to him by “nullifying” the certification of the vote.

In other words, damn the law, they just won’t do it because they don’t want to.

Now, as I understand it, the logic of these shenanigans is to throw the election to Congress where the, because the House and Senate are split, SCOTUS will get involved and, by definition, Trump will win. It would be nothing less than a political 9/11. We’re all just going to walk around in a daze for a few days that Trump managed to pull it off.

And, really, at that point the circle will be closed. We can impeach Trump (and Pence?) all we want to, but TrumpBarr will begin to consolodate power at an alarming rate and he’ll laugh off any impeachment trial in the Senate. I say this even if we manage to win to those two crucial Georgia Senate seats. Trump could murder someone in cold blood while having sex with Ivanka and eating a baby and Senate Republicans won’t blink an eye. As long as Trump doesn’t become a Muslim or raise taxes, he really is something akin to a God King.

It’s sad, but true.

I keep ranting about how all that would start a civil war, but would it really? There might be huge protests, but a civil war? Really? More likely with the upcoming purge of the media, we’ll just be in a Belarusian-like stalemate where there are lots of protests but nothing really happens. And any violence that does happen, TrumpBarr just use the Insurrection Act to squelch it.

Then Trump demands a Constitutional Convention to “pass a balanced budget amendment,” and before you know it, they’re passing a 1984 doublespeak “Second Bill of Rights.”

So, that’s it. That’s how America finally becomes a Russian-style autocracy. We have a political 9/11, nothing really happens and American democracy dies not with a bang but with a whimper.

Oh well. At least I have the novel. I’d prefer not to be pushed out of a window by ICE before I can finish it.

America Is So Fucked


by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

I just don’t see how we get out of this current situation without some sort of major political violence. All the conditions are there. The only this missing is one — 1! — extremists on either side blowing something up or killing someone important and we have a civil war / revolution on our hands.

On one end, it would just be huge protests — enough for Trump to invoke the Insurrection Act — and we would have something akin to what’s going on in Belarus right now: a stalemate. A lot of protests, but not much change. Trump quickly consolidates power by purging the media, among other things, and the First Republic is felled by a deranged, failed TV gameshow host.

On the other end of the spectrum, we have an honest-to-God civil war. It’s not a few hundred people who die, it’s potentially a FEW FUCKING MILLION. We pretty much just nuke and gas ourselves into oblivion because working class white men can’t figure out the point of the progressive tax and are very VERY afraid of being “canceled” because of a stray Tweet.

Throw in the potential for a WW3, and we’re talking about a serious End of The Age kind of situation.

But, thankfully, I’m almost always wrong. So, we’ll see.

I do need to drink more, though.

All Roads Lead To SCOTUS (& A Coup…Then A Civil War)


by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

I am often wrong. But here’s what I’m looking at right now. The entire point of the Trump’s legal challenges to the election is to get to SCOTUS. Once it’s at SCOTUS they will win, no matter what.

Then the whole country convulses and a civil war breaks out.

Why anyone would actually WANT such a civil war is beyond me. But we just have way too much time between now and January 20th for SCOTUS to not get involved. There are just too many moving parts that TrumpBarr can fuck with.

I predict we’re going to have a “political 9/11,” very soon where we all wander around in a daze for a few hours as it sinks in that Rudy got SCOTUS to overturn the election. It will be a real “where were you when” type of moment. This will happen either as a result of a “certification crisis” or an “Elector intimidation’ crisis.

Really, the only reason why we might manage to escape this clusterfuck is, well, not only has the election already been called, but Trump and Rudy are just very, very incompetent. But they do have Barr.

So, prove me wrong, folks. I really want to be wrong. But, remember, there are two different Americas right now. There’s MAGA America and everyone else. In MAGA land, they assume my worst nightmare is simply a reality waiting to happen.

Throw in the Insurrection Act and we’re all fucked. At best, we’ll have regular huge protests and massive explosions around the country, at worst we have dueling presidents and actual civil war / revolution. If you want that, please fuck off you piece of shit.

The MAGA Dog That Hasn’t Bitten Anyone (Yet)


by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

Thankfully, no MAGA cocksucker has taken Trump up on his now near-constant effort to incite political violence. Not that it won’t happen, but it’s eerie that it hasn’t happened to date.

Anyway, all that has to happen is one (or a few) Oklahoma City-style bombings or a major assassination and that could be the cover Trump needs to take ‘total control.”

Or, put another way, we have a very, very, very long few weeks ahead of us. Remember, Rudy being in control of the Trump Campaign’s effort to steal the election has more to do messaging Republican state legislatures than anything else.

It’s easy to imagine a “political 9/11” situation where a number of Republican legislatures all decide at the same time to not certifiy the election. Then it all goes to Congress where the law on all of this is shit. Thus, it goes to SCOTUS and Trump will absolutely win, no matter what.

What’s more, even if we get passed the certification crisis, we still have the Elector intimidation crisis and the January Trump freakout crisis. Good luck.

Why Trump Will Dox Electors On Twitter


by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

I’m wrong all the time. But here’s something to think about.

  1. Trump is deranged.
    Trump is an autocrat — if a very bad one — and as it grows more obvious that he will be indicted by NYS after leaving office, he’s going to do anything necessary to “not lose.”
  2. It will be value free.
    By the time we get around to impeaching Trump for doing this, we’ll have moved on to the next thing. The intimidated Electors were “legal” votes and fuck you, lib.
  3. He’ll be president, fuck you lib.
    What are you going to do if Trump intimidates Electors to vote for him, impeach and convict him? This is never going to work, especially if Democrats can’t take the Senate. So, in that sense, at a minimum, Interior Minster Barr will believe Trump can get away with a coup. Trump will dox Electors on Twitter, the Proud Boys scare the hell out of them — they vote for Trump. The End. Coup successful. (Though, of course, this would likely cause a civil war / revolution, but #MoscowMitch doesn’t think in those terms. It’s all about power for power’s sake and owning the libs.)

MAGA Is Just Identity Politics For White People


by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

Let me be clear, that going to one small MAGA rally in DC does not an expert on the subject make. But it was my first MAGA rally and it made a big impression on me. Then I talked to a relative who is conservative-but-not-MAGA and something occurred to me.

One reason why it’s so fucking hard to deal with MAGA is at its core, it’s identity politics for white people, but you can’t bring that up because they get all defensive and think you’re calling them, personally, racist. What’s more, they don’t even believe in systemic racism — period — so you can’t even bring that up.

Throw in the two sides no longer having a shared reality and, well, you have the makings of a pretty unstable country. And I honestly don’t know how this particular situation fixes itself peacefully. We have about 20 years before the dead hand of demographics finally whittles away at the core of the Republican Party — old people.

What’s more, it’s possible that as brown people grow more “white,” that their natural Catholic conservatism will kick in and, well, we turn into an autocracy no matter what. That could just be our fate now — the United States, on a macro level, is going to become an honest-to-God autocracy in my lifetime.

I can’t predict the future. I have no idea what is going to happen.