Month: August 2022

Either Trump Gets Away With Espionage Or We Probably Have a 2nd American Civil War

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

The last few days’ news on the Top Secrets at Mar-a-Lago front definitely indicate that things are coming to an alarming head soon. And we, as a nation, are going to have to confront the very real possibility that either Trump is let off the hook somehow or he’s indicted and he probably starts a civil war in an effort to protect himself personally.

Now, I can’t predict the future. But I do know that a lot of MAGA Republicans, maybe the majority of them, want to own the Libs and the “woke cancel culture mob” so much that they are willing to protect Trump, even if he was literally selling American secrets to the Saudis, Russians or North Koreans. There is going to come a point where they cross the Rubicon when it comes to even being willing to sacrifice their lives in the name of that malignant orange dingus.

And maybe this particular scandal is, unto itself, the thing that causes that to happen. The MAGA faithful do a gut check and they realize that Trump engaging in espionage is really just another thing they have to accept and rationalize away in the name of establishing as white Christian autocratic ethnostate. You know things aren’t going swell for your Republic when you realize that even if you did somehow neutralize Trump, there are a dozen other would be autocrats willing to jump in and finish the job Trump started.

And that, really, is kind of the political quandary we find ourselves in. Trump has accomplished his political and historical duty of being a transitional figure as we slide into autocracy. The problem is, of course, is Trump refuses to get out of the way and, as such, he grows more and more unstable and the country as a whole careens towards a very dark fate.

The reason is — if the Justice Department finds itself absolutely forced to hold Trump accountable and indicts him, I honestly have no idea how bad things could get. To date, Trump has not gone transactional outside of one speech right before the January 6th Insurrection. But if Trump honestly felt there was a real chance he would not only get indicted but booked and ultimately have a court trial he could really go crazy and start insinuating some pretty insane things. Everything from demanding Red States begin the process of leaving the Union to even maybe some sort of deranged demand that a Second Constitutional Convention be called. (Remember, given precedent, it’s very likely that MAGA state legislatures would name the members of any such convention and, by definition, it would go rouge and codify MAGA into any new Constitution.

What makes this particular situation with Trump so unqiue is it’s very, very serious and Trump isn’t POTUS anymore so he can’t hide behind the “only way you can do anything about me is impeachment” defense. Things are so bad that there is even a growing choirs of people who want Biden to pardon Trump over this matter for “the sake of the nation.” As I’ve written before, the only way I would ever support such a thing is if Trump, in exchange, agreed retire from political life.

Anyway, it’s at least possible that the moment of truth when it comes to Trump is upon us. If we ultimately we STILL don’t have the political will to do anything about Trump, then the next fork in the road will be at some point in late 2024 – early 2025. Either Trump and MAGA brazenly steal the 2024 election to the point that Blue States begin to leave the Union, or he wins out right and his second administration agenda is so radical that we definitely might have a 1860 type situation on our hands where Blues, seeing what Reds have in store for the country decide to preemptively bounce, causing a National Divorce and a civil war.

Or, put another way, the United States is so unstable at the moment that Trump getting a very well deserved indictment could be the catalyst that destroys the country. Or, if maybe not “destroys” it, definitely changes it in the sense that the National Divorce that I think Blues will do would be caused early by Reds. America is so bad politically at the moment that I don’t know if it will be Reds or Blues who ultimately demand a National Divorce.

I’m not VOX. I have no idea what to tell you. There are no easy solutions. Get out of the country? Invest in gold? Or maybe just figure out what you’re willing to suffer for and go from there. That’s one thing you’re going to need in the real world going forward, no matter what happens.

What Is To Be Done About Trump?

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

Trump is like America’s UTI that is always just about on the cusp of going septic and nearly killing us. The key issue is that Trump is nothing more than a vessel, an avatar for the rage of white Christian (men) about the changing nature of the United States. A lot of it, obviously, has to do with the white Birth Dearth, but that is the subject of a different post.

But it is very clear to me — and others — that the issue at the moment is that one of the two major American parties believes that, by definition, Trump is like the fucking Pope — infallible. What’s more he’s not just infallible, but he’s above the law to the point that by definition any law he breaks is invalid. and subject to attack.

It’s so bad that MAGA, which purports to be all about “law and order” goes after the FBI of all things, just because they are doing their jobs and trying to enforce laws. Of course, as others have mentioned, the issue is MAGA wants order but no law. That’s the crux of autocracy — that laws are applied only when in service of the overall goals of the autocrat.

MAGA is so absolutely devoted to dingus Trump that they are totally prepared to burn the county to the ground in order to protect him. It is difficult, at this point, not to believe that MAGA wants something akin to an Americanized version of Nazi Germany. They want a nation of blood and soil where the Leadership Principle of Der Fuhrer means whatever Trump wants, he gets. I still struggle a great deal to figure out what about Trump is so appealing to MAGA. Reading about Hitler, I can kind of “get” why he was able to take over Germany in the wake of WW1. But Trump, I still don’t understand.

He is so stupid and lazy that it’s difficult to understand why anyone, regardless of education or class would give a shit what he has to say. And, yet, here we are with millions of people — some of whom should know better — who are waiting with baited breath for Trump’s second, far more radical term.

And, in the end, I again have to say that we face the existential choice of autocracy or civil war. We’re either going to become something of a political clone of Russia (the DeSantis option) or we have a civil war (the Trump endgame.) There is absolutely no middle ground. It just doesn’t exist. You have to pick a side and if you call yourself a “centrist” at this point, you’re really complicit in the rise of American Nazism (MAGA)

Trump, as a political entity, is an extremely dangerous flaw in our political system. He is so weird and apt to do anything to save his own skin that he could literally, unto himself, cause the end of the United States as we’ve known it for close to 250 years.

I have no solutions. I have no idea what to do. I guess get ready.

‘Just Write’

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

One of the most annoying things to happen to me during the course of all these years of working on this project has been people who have told me to “just write.” I have found that plotting really fits my personality far better than “just writing.”

Now, here I am, plotting six novels.

Me, back when I was cute.

But the key thing I’ve realized of late is how important developing character is. So, that’s something I’ve really been dwelling on and reading about (again). It’s character that causes the reader to want to invest in the novel to the point that they’re willing to spend a number of hours with it to finish it.

My overall writing and storytelling ability continues to improve. But there remains a severe learning curve. I need to take a deep breath and focus on both the macro arc of the story over six novels and the more specific issues found within each individual novel.

But, overall, it’s a lot of fun.

Having six novels to flesh out is very demanding creatively and keeps me on my toes.

Shorting America

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

These are the twilight days of Pax Americana. The lives of millions of everyday people all over the world are about to change in a rather dramatic fashion one way or another. I say this because no matter what, the current situation we live in is too unstable and is going to break either into autocracy or civil war. There is no middle ground. Pick a side or a side will be chosen for you.

So, if America was a stock, I would short it.

I’m not writing this for VOX, so I’m not smart enough or smug enough to be able to write an explainer as to how to prepare yourself for the coming Great Reset or Fourth Turning. All I know is we’re totally and completely fucked.

I suppose if I was a normal person, I would begin to prepare for departure from the United States. I would try to go back to being an expat somewhere, maybe somewhere in Southeast Asia. But, alas, that’s just not an option. So, I’m going to have to ride the pony to the bottom and see where it leads me.

It definitely seems as though at some point between now and January 2025 there is going to be a Great Reset or Fourth Turning. It could be very subtle as America slides into autocracy or it could be VERY DRAMATIC as Blue States begin to leave the Union as part of a National Divorce. But the crux of the issue is — America is very, very unstable. Like, France right before the French Revolution unstable.

It’s just difficult for one to grasp in an abstract manner what’s going on because the macro forces at work are so enormous.

Apocalypse Me

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

I have often said that if The End comes, I’ll either be the first person to die or the person who brings back civilization. I find myself thinking a lot about this as I grow more and more alarmed about America’s fate over the next few years. I find myself wondering if I might find out if my silly prediction is going to turn out to be a lot closer to the truth than I might otherwise realize.

In either end of the spectrum — autocracy or civil war — I might very well find my life upended in a rather dramatic fashion. If we become an autocracy, then I’m going to inevitably run afoul of the autocrat. If we have a civil war, then I’m probably going to wiggle my way into some sort of leadership position simply because I refuse to stand by in such a crisis.

Whenever my start to daydream about being some sort of Second American Civil War leader, I think about how U.S. Grant was a drunk in the middle of nowhere for most of the 1850s before the First American Civil War changed his life forever. I’m definitely not comparing myself to Grant, but I do know my strengths and an America thrown into chaos because of a 2ACW is something I know that I could definitely potentially thrive in.

Or, of course, I would be one of the first people murdered for political reasons when it first began — not a lot of people like me. (Wink.)

I don’t seriously believe I could become any sort of leader as a result of a 2ACW, but it is something interesting to think about. Or, put another way, it’s something to make myself feel better when I realize how fucking dark the future of the United States is going to be, one way or another.

Of Russia, NATO and Estonia: Is America Too Divided To Defend The West?

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

The recent murder of Darya Dugin has caused a series of curious events in Russia. As I understand it, the Russians are now claiming that she was murdered by a Ukrainian spy who escaped to Estonia. Or something like that. I’m too lazy to look up the specifics to be sure.

Anyway, all of this gives me pause for thought because if the Russians are pointing fingers at both Estonia and Ukraine, things could go down a very dark path pretty quick. And, what really concerns me at the moment is the United States is so existentially divided — and the fucking fascist Republicans love Russia so much — that I don’t know if the United States is prepared to properly address any military action on the part of the Russians should such a thing happen.

I mean, is the United States prepared to go toe-to-toe with Russia if they decide to attack NATO member Estonia? Republicans love autocracy and Russia so much that after the initial shock wore off, the two sides would each go back into their echo chambers to the point that Biden wouldn’t be able to get the country on the same page as to what to do.

Or, put another way, the United States is so divided and so weak right now that we don’t have the political will to fully serve our purpose as the core of the post WW2 liberal order. And, in all honesty, the only thing that gives me any hope about this particular situation is Russia is so weak — especially after its on-going military debacle in Ukraine — that for the time being all this talk of going after Estonia or Ukraine is just that. Talk.

Russia has been proven to be so weak that they couldn’t do anything with Estonia even if they wanted to. Of course, you could say that Putin is no longer a rational actor and, as such, he might do something as bonkers as attack a NATO member over make up charges. Then my fears of a very divided America would be put to the test.

What I mean by all of this is America is so fucked up right now that there would be no assurances that we summon up the will to defend the free world from Russian aggression if it came to that. I say this especially in the context of the possibility that the fucking fascist Republicans might soon take the House again (at least).

If Russia attacked Estonia and the United States couldn’t get its act together enough to defend it properly in the context of Article 5 of NATO then it would principate the total collapse of the barely-hanging on post-WW2 liberal order. We would be thrown into a level of international chaos not seen since the Interwar period.

Let’s just hope the Russians don’t test America to see if it can still do the right thing, even if it wanted to.

Where Would The Worst Fighting Of A Second American Civil War Be?

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

Someone recently came to this site looking for information about what would happen to Kentucky if there was a Second American Civil War. I thought about it some and here’s my general hot take.

First, a lot — and I mean A LOT — of things would have to go wrong for the United States to have a traditional civil war. I say this because of the U.S. Military. The more I think about it, the U.S. Military is something of a wildcard in all these dystopian hellscape civil war scenarios I keep coming up with. The only way that things would get so bad that there was WW2-type fighting in America during a 2ACW would be if states began to leave the Union and were able to successfully get members of the U.S. Military to join their new armies. That is very debatable.

What’s more likely to happen is some sort of military coup then junta. We would endup with Acting President James Mattis who would hold the country together until we were able to have a Second Constitutional Convention to address the causes of our impending doom.

But, let’s say, for the sake of argument, that the U.S. Military was hollowed out as states began to leave the Union. Now, at the moment, I believe that if we have a civil war, it will begin in late 2024, early 2025 when it becomes obvious to Blues that the presidential election was stolen.

I suppose, of course, that it’s at least possible that if Trump gets indicted before 2024 that he will go transactional and it will be Reds, not Blues that demand a “National Divorce” and, as such, start a civil war.

Back to the scenario.

I think the high-density states of the “Heartland” like Kentucky will see the most brutal fighting if it comes to that. I say this because the first phase of the Second American Civil War in that area of the country would see coups and counter coups as it was determined which side each state was on. I mean, there is a very small but very organize group of people in, say, Michigan that would definitely want the state to be a Red state in any Second American Civil War. And, yet, there there are enough Blues in the state that such a move would be violently contested.

So the Heartland would probably turn into a pitched battle just like WW2 in Europe. And, remember, there is a very good chance that WMD would be used by both sides as the civil war began to grow more heated. And, I could see Kentucky radicalizing to the point that the state would collectively decide to fight to the absolute end rather than surrender to Blue forces, should Blue forces get the upper hand and try to re-unite the country as a war aim. (I don’t see that being a war aim for Blues, but war is so unpredictable that I suppose it could happen as part of mission creep.)

What’s more likely to happen is once it’s determined which state is a Blue state and which state is a Red state that there really could be some sort of “National Divorce” that was a lot less violent than you might think. The two sides might agree to disagree once a short, but violent war of separation happened and then the looming problem would be all the people in Trumplandia desperate to flee the Trumplandia USA.

To answer the question of what would happen to Kentucky in a civil war — there is a pretty wide spectrum of outcomes. On one end, you have the state simply becoming a border state to Blue USA (Illinois) and on the other you have the complete and total destruction of the state because Blues swoop in and demand the MAGA cocksuckers come to grips with the reality of who has won the war.

We’re In The Twilight Of The Post WW2 Pax Americana Era

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

Enjoy these last few months of the post-WW2 era of Pax Americana. At any moment, everything could change in a rather dramatic and violent manner. I don’t know what it will be, but the nation is so much on edge that there definitely seems to be an air of inevitability to it all.

I continue to read a political biography of Hitler about his ascent and it continues to remind me of what’s going on right now in the United States. And, yet, I also continue to notice as I read — Trump is no Hitler. The biggest difference between the two men is even though both of them are very lazy, Trump is by far the lazier of the two.

Even Hitler was willing to do the basic organizational work necessary to get and maintain autocratic power. Trump, meanwhile, is an empty suit. He’s a brat. He thinks that just by ranting a lot he can get what he wants. Now, obviously, some of this has changed with his Schedule F idea. Schedule F is very much a Nazi-like idea. Which brings up the idea again that Trump, unto himself, could start a civil war because he will try to ram through a very radical fascist agenda from the moment he gets into power.

While I absolutely believe that someone like Ron DeSantis will, at a minimum, become an American Putin. But he’s smart enough to slather some sugar on the initial stages of his personal guiding of America into a political Russian clone. Trump, meanwhile, is so deranged that he could very well personally be the reason why Blue states like California begin to call up secessionist conventions at some point in late 2024, early 2025.

I know that sounds hysterical. I get it. And to some extent a lot of what I’m talking about is things I believe that, all things being equal, have the possibility of happening. It doesn’t mean they will. If you really wanted to get nitty-gritty about it, the more I think about it, the more it seems like the U.S. Military would step in and run the country if there was any real risk of civil war. I am well aware that this runs counter to everything the American military believes on an institutional basis, but if the other choice was sitting back and watching the country collapse into chaos, I could see us having an Acting President James Mattis for a few months until we sorted things out through a Constitutional Convention.

But the point is, like I keep saying, this is it — the America we’ve known for about 70 years is just about over and done with. Something is about to replace it. What that will be is still to be determined.

Tik-Tok Did It Yet Again

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

Ok, so I was obsessively using Twitter as I’m apt to do, when I noticed someone say something about how they like the Steve Martin movie “Man With Two Brains.” For a moment, I thought REALLY HARD about a different Steve Martin movie, “All Of Me.”

I thought specifically of the scene where one character says to the other, “Back in the bowl.” Or, if you want to know — this specific scene:

Let me be clear — I didn’t tell anyone this. I didn’t search for the scene anywhere. All I did was think about it really hard for a brief moment. Then the moment passed.

Would you believe that Tik-Tok pushed that very scene at me out of the blue just a moment ago? The moment I saw it, I had to think, “Well, if Tik-Tok can read our minds, then there’s yet more evidence to suggest that is the case.”

But I suppose it’s all algorithms, no any extremely advanced and hidden technology that would allow the Chinese government to read the minds of America’s young people. Right, that’s not possible, is it? Is it?

Trump Is A Political Monster That Isn’t Going Anywhere

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

I think it’s safe to say that once the MAGA nightmare is over — however it may be — we’re going to have a lot better understanding of the rise of Hitler in Germany. The vague parallels between Hitler and Trump are startling. But the key thing we have to remember is — no matter how bad things might be with Trump at any particular moment, they’re always going to get worse.

Donald Trump

As such, we have to begin to do not only triage, but gird our political loins for pretty bad situation. Apocalyptic, even. I still content that in the end, MAGA will ultimately be responsible for more deaths than the Nazis. And that goes for either way things might work out — Fortress America or some sort of 2nd American Civil War. In either instance, Pax America will end and something marketing as WW3 will break out.

Or, put another way, we are in the political twilight of an unpreceded era of global peace and prosperity whereby America was the linchpin of a stable order the likes of which humanity has never seen since Roman times. It’s almost over. All that has to happen is either MAGA gains power again or we have a civil war of some sort.

We’re going to live in some very interesting times. There will be no narrative and it may take generations for us to fully understand the implications of what happens. We’re about to have a “Fourth Turning” or “Great Reset” of some sort and it’s all going to be fucking dingus Trump’s fault.

It definitely looks as though everything could go to hell in a handbasket at any moment. All we need is some sort of catalyst. It may be that we will look back at the FBI raid on Mar-a-Lago as what started it all, or maybe not. Maybe Trump has to go transactional first.

All I know is — enjoy these last few days or weeks, or months of “normal” life in America. At best we might be able to punt things down the road one more presidential cycle. But the days of muddling through political are over. We’re all going to have to pick a side or a side will be chosen for us.