Month: January 2024

What The Fuck Is Wrong With The USA?

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

All I can say is, it definitely seems as though we’re careening towards a very, very dark future. As I keep saying, they say you go bankrupt gradually, then all at once and it definitely SEEMS as though in late 2024, early 2025, we’re going to reach the “all at once” part of that particular rule of thumb.


It’s just all very sad. All great empires must come to an end and so, lulz, either America somehow manages to punt our problems down the road or there’s some sort of Black Swan event that saves us — otherwise, yikes, we’re going to implode.

We’re going to turn into an America First autocracy and the post-WW2 liberal world order is going to collapse. Then, oh Lort. Only the good Lawd knows what will happen then.

It just seems very possible that the next few years could be very, very bumpy in ways that we simply can’t predict or control. Trump is a one-person chaos agent and, as such, pretty much no matter what, he is going to put us to the test.

Assessing The Next 12 Months

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

The issue of what might happen in the next year could be rather profound in hindsight. The issue first and foremost that no one can predict the future. So, I can write all dystopian hellscape verbiage I want, in the end, only the good Lort knows for sure what is going to happen.

Now, in January of 2024, it definitely SEEMS as though Trump is either going to win and turn us into a very unstable autocracy, or he is going to lose and demand a National Divorce to save his sorry ass on a personal basis.

But there is always a chance that either Trump loses and just slinks off into oblivion, or some Black Swan event happens that no one can predict that gives us an off ramp from a very dark future that none of us can now predict.

And, yet, we have to take seriously at least the possibility that some fucked up shit is going to happen in late 2024, early 2025. It could very well be that the United States as we current conceive of it will no longer exist in a year. It could be that we either are just about to transition into a full-blown MAGA autocracy, or we’re just about to depose Tyrant Trump.

I am growing more and more nervous that because of where I live, I may become some sort of domestic political refugee in about a year. That I will be forced out of my home and forced to move somewhere that better fits my center-Left political views.

But at the moment, that’s kind of out there. It could be that lulz, none of that happens and we’ll somehow — somehow — punt our political and social problems down the road another four years.

NYT GPT

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

It doesn’t take a brain surgeon to realize that OpenAI’s GPT store could be used on newspapers. My only fear is that it will take newspapers way too long to figure out how to embrace GPTs and still make money.

GPTs are a transitional phase in our trek towards the Web collapsing into a singularity and everything — including the news — being presented to us via some combination of AI and XR technology. As such, you might wear a very fashionable successor to the Apple Vision Pro that would be hooked up to some successor to ChatGPT.

I just don’t see the Web as we currently interact with it lasting much longer, given how fast AI is advancing, and especially with the advent of the GPT store. Maybe it won’t be GPTs, but I do think every major Website will be replaced with something akin to a GPT that will talk to your digital agent and, as such, the Web will collapse into a Singularity.

The details of all of this are still very fuzzy. But that seems to be the general trend.

We Live In Strange Times

By Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

Things are so fucked up at the moment, that it would be nice if Trump got involved in your run-of-the-mill sex scandal. It’s not like it would change anything. He would still be 60,000 votes in five swing states away from being POTUS.

But at least we would have some…entertainment…for a few days or weeks till things go sorted out.

It definitely seems as though ding-dong Trump is, at the moment, an immutable force of American political history. He’s going to either lose and start a civil war by demanding a National Divorce, or win and either transition us into an autocracy or win and cause a revolution on the part of blues which, in turn, causes a civil war by Reds.

All because white Christian (men) are uneasy about the browning of America and the rise of women having more reproductive and economic agency.

I Really Want To Return To Asia For A Little Lookie-Loo

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

Barring something I simply can not predict at the moment, I’m not going to South Korea or Asia anytime soon. But that doesn’t stop me from really wanting to return for a few weeks.

Me, (background), in the bad old day of Seoul.

I think, in all honesty, what’s going on is I just want to visit A Real City and I’m either too broke (NYC) or it’s too far away AND I’m broke (LA). So, I idly muse about going to Asia again.

It’s been so long since I was in Asia that I think the whole thing would be a rather meh experience. There are a few people in Asia that if I specifically tracked them down there would be drama…but it’s just not worth it. I just want to swoop in for a few weeks, see some of my old stomping grounds then head home.

That’s it.

There is, of course, always a risk that some people will demand that I absolutely stay for this or that great job opportunity they would love for me to fill. That would be…existential…for more reasons than one.

But that’s a serious amount of hopeful daydreaming on my part. I think I could probably sneak into Seoul and leave without too much drama. Of course, there would probably be at least one Korean who would stop cold in their tracks if they saw me and freak the fuck out.

Anyway.

That’s not happening anytime soon.

Angst For The Memories: Why Won’t Manuscript Consultants Take Me Seriously?

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

I feel like just a man with a dream. (Flips chair around.) You know who else was just a man and a dream…Donald Trump.

Before you get too excited, I say that in jest, but with a little bit of bitterness. Back when I had money, I would offer to pay manuscript consultants money and they would either ghost me or, pretty much, just laugh in my face. Which, of course, makes me wonder — why?

You would think that manuscript consultants — who are supposed to help creative people take things to the next level — would be tolerant of kooky drunk cranks like me.

Well, guess what, you guess wrong!

Apparently, they don’t want my cooties near them in any way. They are just snobs who won’t give a brother a chance. This is very, very grating to my nerves. All I need them to do is be a sounding board for my vision for the various novels I have rolling around in my head.

And I can’t even get some of them to help me do that. My hope is, of course, that I can bootstrap myself with a novel, some novel that gets sold and then use THAT as a calling card to make my second novel a lot better.

Of course, I’ll be old as fuck by the time all that sorts itself out.

Angst For The Memories — Write Write Write Edition

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

Now that I’m officially in the second act of the third draft of my first novel, I have come to the conclusion that I have to re-imagine on a structural basis, pretty much everything. And that is going to slow me down.

The key thing I have to game out is cause and effect. The second draft of the novel, upon reflection, doesn’t really have a lot of cause and effect. Things just…happen. There’s no this then happens, but, therefore, this thing happens.

As such, I have to brood.

I have to reimagine the story — which is going to stay the same in a general way — so that there is a very clear set of events that cause each other to happen one right after the other. This is causing me to stare out into space and contemplate not just my plans for this novel, but reality in general.

Anyway. I hope to not only re-imagine this novel, but to read other people’s work, watch more TV and movies AND begin to game out not only back up ideas, but some of the sequels to this first novel.

Nobody, but nobody takes me seriously.

I hate to admit it, but I feel a little bit like a literary version of Donald Trump, given how manuscript consultants tend to shit on my dreams.

It Was A Long Time Ago & Nobody Cares Anymore…Virginia Press Edition

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

Somewhere in the multiverse, there is a version of me that is an assistant editor at The Richmond Times-Dispatch. I doubt this person would be “me” as I am in this universe, but they would probably have my name and a little of my personality and general drive.

I would have a half-finished novel in a desk drawer at home. I would daydream a lot. I would semi-loveless marriage and three kids. But I would, if nothing else, be a “success” relative to the traditional metrics that we all have to abide by.

But, here I am, in Earth Prime, just a drunk crank working on the third draft of my novel.

Given everything that has happened since I tried — to no success whatsoever, to work at The Richmond Times-Dispatch many moons ago, I have to say it all does give me something of a chuckle. Reading this book about The New York Times, I am again reminded about how naïve I was all those years ago when I wanted to work at the TD.

Jesus Christ. I was a ding-dong.

I just had no frame of reference for what I was getting myself into. I worked at the Virginia Press Association at the time at the TD was the center of our universe, so of course I wanted to work there. But, it just didn’t work out and it’s for the best.

But I did learn a lot about the newspaper business working at the VPA. And, if nothing else, my time trying to work at the TD did provide me with something of an…Easter egg…for the novel I’m working on. I’ve thought really hard about the nature of that Easter egg and I just don’t see why anyone would object. It’s just a silly wink and a nod to someone who was really important in my life a long, long, long time ago.

Yet I do think about that particular issue a lot.

Only time will tell.

Brooding

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

As a compromise to myself, I’m going to continue to mull a total restructuring of the rest of the third draft of the novel and, yet, at the same time start to game out other stories.

And read. And watch.

What I can’t do is just stare out in the space and pretend that I’m not going older every day. I have GOT to treasure this moment in time. I have go to accept that this moment in my life isn’t going to last for ever. It’s going to end eventually and then Something New will replace it.

What that Something New is, I dunno. But it will happen. All good things must come to an end and I have to throw myself into being as creative as possible. I keep saying that then, lulz, what do I do — nothing of note. Or, whatever I do, I continue to do it by drifting towards my goal, rather than buckling down and getting something done as soon as possible.

But I feel pretty confident that I could still meet my deadline for this novel. I just have to be a lot more self-conscious of my deadline. I can’t just keep doing what I’ve been doing and expect to wrap this novel up ASAP, especially since I keep throwing everything up in the air on a structural basis.

Vibe Shift: Culture, Like Nature, Abhors A Vacuum

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

Something very curious is going on with Western culture at the moment. And that curious thing is…nothing. There’s just nothing much going on at the moment. There are lot of macro trends that are heading towards something, but there’s just not a lot going on right now.

There are a lot of ways to look at situation.

One is, this is just the usual winter lull in the year. Another is, culture is kind of in a holding pattern until the election. Or, you could say, once the AI generated Toy Story pops out in a few months, and it will be away we go!

But think about it.

For the last 20-odd years, people have dressed pretty much the same. We’ve listened to music that is pretty much the same — with a few notable exceptions. Everything has just been a number of apps maturing in popularity until some — like Facebook — seem like virtual malls. (Not a lot going on and those people who do use them are old people getting their steps in.)

I do think that AI and the Fourth Turning might be two things that upend the rather sedate cultural world we live in at the moment. And it might be that Apple’s Vision Pro is the first thing that REALLY throws everything for a loop. But even that, I think, has a few more years before people will actually want to wear them.

Not until XR glasses are indistinguishable from those wrap around sunglasses that all those angry MAGA chodes wear will they become popular.