Category: Cold Civil War

MAGA Has Gone Septic

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

It continues to appear as though, baring something I can’t predict, 2024 is going to Be It. We’re going to make an existential decision — one way or another — as to the fate of our democracy. The 2024 presidential cycle could be the most historically significant since 1860.

But there is a lot still up in the air about what, specifically, will happen. There are four possible options, it seems. One is, Trump wins outright and we peacefully slide into autocracy. The next possibility is, Trump wins and there’s some sort of “Resistance Revolution.” Another option would be Trump loses and there’s a civil war when Red States begin to leave the Union. And then, of course, there is the least likely possibility — Biden or some other Democrat wins and we just punt things down the road again.

At the moment, I just can’t figure out which of those four options will actually become a reality. I’m always, always wrong, so it’s probably going to be some outcome that I just can’t predict.

But I do think that at the moment the most likely outcome is Trump wins again and smug liberals just leave the country. The United States will peacefully slide into autocracy and before you know it we’ll have a MAGA-induced Constitutional Convention and we’ll have some sort of MAGA Enabling Acts bolted onto the Constitution.

It seems to me that the United States will follow the path of Russia over the last 20 years in which we slide into autocracy. The big issue is, of course, will it be a “light touch” autocracy or will our new autocrat be so insecure that they begin to consolidate power in a way that it bumps up against the American self-perception that we’re a democracy.

That is the real crux of what we face in late 2024, early 2025. At the moment, I think people are just to blase and no matter how radical Trump’s incoming agenda is, nothing of note is going to happen in regards to any sort of resistance. We’ll become a MAGA-themed autocracy and that will be that.

And, yet, there is a greater-than-zero chance that if Trump’s incoming agenda is really as radical as we all fear, that something extraordinary might happen. And that doesn’t even begin to address the possibility of a civil war if Trump loses. I could totally see Red States — starting with, say, Texas — leaving the Union in late 2024, early 2025 if Trump loses.

But, again, it’s at least possible that we’ll just punt things down the road again. I just don’t know what is going to happen at the moment.

Does ‘Barbenheimer’ Portend Our Long-Awaited ‘Vibe Shift?’

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

It definitely FEELS like we’ve reached the absolute end of one pop culture era and we’re waiting for a new one to arise from the ashes. And, yet, given that we may face a perfect storm of Petite Singularity and The Fourth Turning in late 2024, early 2025, these months leading up that era in time may be nothing more than wasted time.

We may just drift through cultural time without any sort of clear idea of where things stand until we make up our minds about if we’re going to continue to be a democracy or not. And, at the same time, we also have to decide if AI is going to completely and totally take over huge swaths of the human experience or not. I’m very weary about both of these events, given that they’re going to take place at the same time.

So, I don’t know. It could go either way. It could be that we just slide into autocracy and we let AI write and produce all our entertainment and we live in a permanent Black Mirror episode. Or, it could be that we have some sort of sharp, violent political event starting in late 2024, early 2025 and not until that’s settled we make any big decisions about AI.

It just seems like we’re lurching towards Something New in a rather abrupt manner and it will be interesting to see when exactly this happens. I suspect we may continue to be in something of a cultural vacuum for a few more months. We really haven’t reached a tipping point, I don’t think. It’s definitely one of those — you know it when you see it kind of things.

I look forward to what’s next, though. We’ve been suck in the post-911 cultural era for way, way too long.

The Real Threat In 2024

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

The key issue for late 2024, early 2025 has nothing to do with another January 6th type situation. The real danger is that, on a systemic basis, the Republican Party has grown so radical that if Trump somehow magically manages to lose the 2024 election that they will begin to leave the Union.

As such, people who are focusing on some sort of repeat of January 6th are totally missing the point. The is a real risk of a Second American Civil War if Trump loses in 2024.

Let me be clear — at the moment, in July 2023 — I just don’t see Trump losing. He’s going to win and he — and his successor — will lurch American into a Russian-style autocracy. I say this because Trump’s fate remains in the hands of 60,000 voters in five swing states.

That’s it.

So, baring something I can’t predict, Trump is the next president of the United States and he’s going to be a tyrant and a thug in ways that are unprecedented in American history. And, remember, Biden is very old. And history is replete with instances where the absolute worst thing that could possibly happen, happens.

So it is VERY EASY to imagine that Biden, tragically, shuffles off this mortal coil at some point between when the 2024 ballots are printed and Certification Day. If such a thing happened, mass chaos would ensue. The last time any such thing happened was in 1872 and the solution wasn’t great — they equally distributed the dead guys Electoral Votes among everyone else.

Yikes!

Anyway, if Trump does somehow manage to lose, there is a real risk that we’re going to have a civil war. The greatest, most powerful nation in the world, is going to destroy itself because of “vibes.”

The other alternative is, of course, Trump wins and we have something akin to a “Resistance Revolution.” I seriously doubt such a thing would happen — too many of the people who would otherwise spear head such a historic event will simply bounce — but it’s at least possible, I guess. If it happened, Blues across the country would actively work to prevent tyrant and thug Trump from becoming president.

If we’re lucky, it would be a “Glorious Revolution” if we’re not…oh fucking boy.

The Curious Case of UAPs

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

There is a lingering mystery in the air when it comes to Unidentified Aerial Phenomena. I find it astonishing that we honestly have no idea what the fuck is going on with UAPs and yet the idea has — to date- gotten zero traction in the public imagination.

Given just a little bit of thought, however, this is kind of bonkers. There are strange, powerful objects zipping around the skies of the globe and we have no idea what they are or where they’re from? Why is no one freaking out about this? It’s all very strange.

The most obvious explanations — that either a state or non-state actor has come up with some very, very advanced technology — doesn’t seem to fit what’s going on. So, there is the third, seemingly impossible option: these UAPs are probes are of non-human origin.

If we accept that the seemingly impossible is, in fact, what’s going on…that really opens a can of worms. And, yet, this idea doesn’t seem to matter to the general population. The idea that ETs are using probes to take regular looky-loos at Humanity should at least give people…pause for thought?

But, no. Nothing. Nobody cares.

It seems as though the only way anyone is going to care is if there is Hard First Contact with little green men landing on the front lawn of the White House. It’s enough to make one believe that if the government did release what it might know about ETs that…no one would care.

Only space nerds would get excited, everyone else would go back to fighting over the culture wars.

Tiny D is Such A Fucking Fascist

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

The thing about Ron DeSantis is he will be an American Putin if he is elected POTUS. I say this because the Republican Party is a fascist party now and, by definition, our next Republican president will be an American Autocrat. And there really isn’t much we can do about it unless there’s something along the lines of a Resistance Revolution.

The great irony is, of course, that ding-dong Trump is so stupid, so lazy that he simply was not able to do what he was originally elected to do in 2016 — be an autocrat. Trump is well on his way to getting another shot at being an autocrat and this time, in 2024 – 2025, he’s probably going to be successful. There is, of course, a greater-than-zero chance that, like I said, there will be something akin to a revolution (Blues) or a civil war (Reds) no matter what happens in 2024.

But let’s get back to Tiny D, who tweeted this:

The hissy fit that fucking fascists like Ron DeSantis have over ESG is as stereotypical as it is depressing. Tiny D’s attack on ESG is a prime example of how we’re careening into fascism. There’s no going back. And the only way we don’t slide into autocracy be it through President DeSantis or Ding-Dong Trump, is something akin to a revolution.

And I hate violence. So, lulz, I would prefer we just slide peacefully into fascism that have any sort of violence. But the key issue that I have to accept if we go that path is things are going to get personal — ICE agents will be weaponized and either I get rounded up and put into a Trump-branded camp or just get a bullet in the back of the head.

I say this because I’ve really had the luxury of living in the Western liberal democracy. And when that is no longer the case, I’m not going to change my behavior — I’m never going to shut up.

Where’s Our Vibe Shift?

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

It used to be that culture could change a lot just within the course of one decade. As late as the 1980s, early 80s was very different than mid or late 80s. And, yet, it definitely seems as though since 2001, cultural shifts haven’t happened as rapidly.

I’m old enough that if I look back over the last 20 years, I struggle to see how there has been any sort of major vibe shift. Yes, there have been blips of change here and there since 2001, but, in general any cultural changes have been rather subtle.

At some point over the last 20 years, something changed.

Could it have been the advent of social media because of the smartphone? Is that what caused everything to change? It’s all very curious. Or is it possible that we’re really, really overdue for a severe vibe shift.

And as such, maybe 2024 really is it?

Could it be that because of both the Petite Singularity and The Fourth Turning may happen at the same time in late 2024, early 2025 that, unto itself, could be the Vibe Shift that we’ve all been expecting. Maybe?

But it is very curious. Someone should write a 10,000 word New Yorker piece about this shit.

2024: A Perfect Storm

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

It definitely seems like everything is going to come to a head in 2024. Developments in AI will combine with the put up or shut up political moment of late 2024 – early 2025 and the fate of the entire world — of all of humanity — could be decided starting in 2024.

I say this because if the US collapses — or even simply peacefully transitions into an America First autocracy — everything is going to be upended. Talk about a New World Order! If the US leaves NATO and aligns itself with other autocratic states like Russia, Hungary and Turkey, then, that, unto itself could prompt WW3 to happen — killing about 1 billion people one way or another.

If America collapses into the chaos of civil war (Reds) or revolution (Blues) the same thing will happen — a billion people will die (at least.) If all of this happens, then the issue of AI will be punted down the road until America figures out of it’s going to become Trumplandia or if we’re going to establish the Third American Republic.

At the moment, it really could go either way. It really the fuck could. No fate but what we make and all that.

But if a Third American Republic is established, THEN the issues of global climate change and AI could be addressed collectively by humans as a species. That, at least, would be the idea endgame.

And, yet, humans are dumb and it could be that not even a New World Order after WW3 could get us to get our act together enough to address, collectively some Big Issues that face Humans.

But, I guess, we’ll see, huh?

2023: The Quiet Before The Storm?

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

This year, 2023, is really beginning to have a “quiet before the storm” vibe to it. The signs are everywhere that our political system is collapsing before our very eyes to the point that I just don’t know if we’re going to make it through the passions of the 2024 election.

It definitely seems as though This Is It. We’re either going to turn into an autocracy when Trump wins or he wins and we have a “Resistance Revolution” in response. Or he loses and he demands a civil war. There just doesn’t seem to be any “Third Way” that allow us to punt some severe, macro problems down the road another four years.

I saw someone today that really alarmed me — he definitely looked like someone who would murder me in cold blood in late 2024, early 2025 if the country collapses into anarchy because there’s either a civil war going on because Trump has lost or a Resistance Revolution going on because he’s won and Blues have managed to stop sucking their own cocks long enough to actually fight back. (Not that I’m advocating anything.)

And, yet, I said the same sort of shit about 2020 and….nothing happened other than the January 6th Insurrection. And, I’m always, always wrong. So…maybe somehow, someway we will manage to eek through 2024 without either turning into an autocracy or having a revolution / civil war? Maybe?

It will definitely be interesting to see one way or another.

I May Participate In The ‘Barbenheimer’ Gimmick On Opening Day

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner


I have the means, motive and opportunity to do the Barbenheimer double-feature gimmick. I am very, very poor at the moment, but it would be fun-interesting to do something so zeitgeisty.

It will, of course, be interesting to see if I can actually watch both movies all the way through. I am notorious for leaving movies soon after they start.

Anyway. It’s intriguing, if nothing else.

If Trump Doesn’t Win In 2024, He’s Going To Start A Civil War

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

The thing that Republicans are wilfully oblivious about is not only is Trump going to be the nominee, but if he does lose in 2024, he’s going to single-handedly start a civil war. And if he wins, he may cause a Blue revolt that will be marketed as a “Resistance Revolution.”

The point is — 2024 is it. It’s the year a lot of macro trends come a head, just as the pseudo-science book The Fourth Turning predicts. And, at the moment, it seems like Trump is going win in 2024 — or start a civil war if he doesn’t. Trump is an avatar for a LOT of macro problems in American politics and, as such, we can’t just keep punting these problems down the road.

The Second American Republic, the one founded by Lincoln upon his death, is just about to end and either we turn into an American Autocracy or we have some sort of rebirth into a Third American Republic. At the moment, it could go either way.

My bet is this is it, Trump wins and he and his eventual successor turn us into something akin to Russia, Hungary or Turkey. There might be a WW3 along the way as we transition into an autocracy as well.

But I do think that if Trump loses — as all these well meaning Republicans seem to think in private — we’re going to have a civil war, probably with Texas being the first state to leave the Union. And, add into the equation how fucking old Biden is and…oh boy.

Anyway. Get out of the country while you can, if you have the means.