Category: Cold Civil War

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

The United States, the most powerful nation the world has ever seen, is careening towards a dark and unstable fate. I can’t predict the future, so I don’t know what that fate is, but you are a fool if you don’t think things are about to come to a head.

America faces a spectrum of scenarios, with autocracy being at one end and civil war being at the other. The recipe for A Very American Autocracy is simple — a Republican becomes president. That’s it. You don’t even have to add water. The Republican Party hates democracy, doesn’t believe in it and actively says the United States ISN’T a democracy, but rather a “constitutional republic.”

Our transition into autocracy may not even be very dramatic. We’ll just wake up with a Republican president one day and that will be that. Initially, not much will changed but the procession into autocracy will have officially begun and if we’re lucky we settle somewhere around Hungary and if we’re not, we end up a political clone of Russia.

Now, this is not an abstract for me. I’m a loudmouth crank — often drunk — who is known to rant in a very public way at bars about issues of the day. I know it sounds hysterical now to suggest that I might get in trouble doing that in the United States in the future, but form follows function. Once we’re an autocracy, there’s every reason to believe that ICE will become our FSB and there will be a severe chilling affect on freedom of speech in the United States one way or another.

And that means me getting arrested and sent to a camp for calling President DeSantis a cocksucker.

All of this is happening in broad daylight. We see it happening all around us and we’re not doing anything to stop it. Things are so dumb that we all know exactly what might save us — Mike Pence going John Dean on MAGA — and there is absolutely no way it’s going to happen.

Meanwhile, there is a reasonable chance that we might have a civil war. That, too, sounds pretty bonkers. The idea that a United States, which is ostensibly the most stable nation in the world, imploding into civil war seems very difficult to believe is possible.

But it is.

You have the MAGA New Right which is actively chomping at the bit to start a civil war, even though they have no reason to want one. They’re getting everything they want peacefully via the courts and politics, why would they want a civil war?

Anyway, I have no idea which direction we’re going to go. Given how meh the reaction to the Dobbs decision has been, I have every reason to believe that there won’t be any reaction to us becoming an autocracy. I keep thinking it’s possible that in the process of transitioning into autocracy that people will rise to the occasion they will be the people that lead Blue States out of the Union.

Because it will be Blue States that leave the Union if there’s a National Divorce. It’s all very dumb.

All I can say is, figure out what you believe in and what you’re willing to risk in the real world. Good luck.

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

We live in a post-truth, post-accountability era. In other words — we’re on the verge of becoming a fascist state. Or having a civil war. At the moment, it definitely seems as though we’re just going to slouch into autocracy. And, as I keep saying, the first thing that’s going to happen when it becomes clear this is the case is about 1 million wealthy, well-educated American liberals will bounce.

It will get so bad that President DeSantis will go on Fox News all the time to complain about how America is suffering a “brain drain” at the hands of unpatriotic liberals who need to stay and help make America great again. Then, of course, he’ll push for laws making it far, far more difficult for people to leave the country.

Form follows function.

There doesn’t seem to be anything we can do about any of this. The American Republic is on its last legs. Either we destroy ourselves and maybe, just may renew the Republic after bombing ourselves into oblivion, or transition into an autocratic empire and that will be that.

I continue vacillate wildly between thinking we’re going to have a civil war and thinking we’re going to become an autocracy. But, for the time being, I’ve decided that autocracy is what’s going to happen to us. The center-Left is too busy canceling Dave Chappelle to do the hard work in the real world of defending democracy or, if all else fails, seceding from the Union.

The thing that so many Twitter liberals miss is how popular autocracy is right now in the United States. And a lot of that popularity comes from unforced errors on the part of the center-Left. They really can come across as the “woke cancel culture mob” at times — especially when they “cancel” people like Dave Chappelle.

Anyway, things are dire. Really dire. And we’re going into a massive, historic disaster with our eyes wide open. We’re doing nothing constructive to stop either autocracy or civil war. It’s like, as I’ve written before, we’ve just given up.

Good luck.

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

I really admire author Don Winslow for a number of reasons. As I understand it, he was older when he started getting novels published and that’s something I hope to do, as well. And he and I have a similar belief that the so-called “Resistance” isn’t doing nearly enough to address the rise of fascism in the United States.

But something I do think about is it possible that he’s a little TOO negative. And, let me be clear, I’m the person that Mueller, She Wrote called a “terribly negative person” and blocked.

I guess what specifically I’m thinking about is how he attacks some of the more notable names in the #NeverTrump roster. I totally agree with him that we need to keep an eye on them going forward, but I also think we’re so absolutely desperate as we approach the very turbulent 2023 – 2025 timeframe that we should think about giving them a pass.

Or not. It’s something to think about.

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

It definitely seems as though Republicans have one core belief and that is: owning libs. The idea of “owning the libs” is so fundamental, so existential to what they believe that in their campaign ads they simply can not have enough AR-15s. They don’t stop at holding one.

No, they need at least two. And if they’re forced to hold only one AR-15, then it has to be pointed at something, as if they’re going to murder in cold political blood the next libtard that cross their path. It makes you wonder what’s next. Are Republicans going to abduct members of The Atlantic staff and film snuff films where they chase them through the streets of New York City with an AR-15?

Definitely seems possible, the way things are going.

But there is a broader connection between Republicans obsession with AR-15 and the rise of fascism in the United States. Even though Trump pretty much is totally above the law and fuck you lib, the idea that Leftists are burning cities down, and, as such, God fearing Republicans need to have a few AR-15s at the ready are very much intertwined.

The thing I fear your typical Twitter liberal doesn’t grasp is how popular autocratic, theocratic fascism is in the United States. If you add in conservative Traditionalists who aren’t MAGA but hate libs because they think they’re all “groomers” the total percent of the electorate in favor of a white Christian ethnostate is probably at least 48%.

So, I don’t know what to tell you. It definitely feels like we’re going to slip peacefully into fascist autocracy. Republicans are just too organized and passionate. Good luck. Get out of the country if you can.

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

Just from talking to my Traditionalist relatives, I can tell you that they’re too busy owning the libs over cow farts to do anything about humanity’s impending doom from global climate change. It’s not that they not believe the weather is weird or that it’s changing, it’s just they refuse to do anything about it. They usually couch their answers in terms how the weather is always changing and there’s nothing anyone can do about it.

A clip from Don’t Look Up, and then a real TV interview that just happened pic.twitter.com/CokQ5eb3sO

— Ben Phillips (@benphillips76) July 20, 2022

American Traditionalists would literally rather bequeath a planet too hot to live on that risk missing an opportunity to own the libs. The more I think about it, the more it seems like the only way we save humanity is for America to have that “National Divorce” that MAGA New Right people seem to masturbate to all the time.

But it should be Blues, not Reds who serve the papers.

Even if such a National Divorce caused the use of WMD and the USA bombing itself into oblivion and WW3 happened because of it, maybe when came out the other side humanity would all be on the same page about what to do about global climate change.

Because as of right now, a united America is so unable to address the existential danger of global climate change that it’s better that we slide into civil war and hope for the best. If we don’t do anything, the climate is only going to get worse and worse to the point that earth is uninhabitable.

But at least every last lib will be owned, like with a boot on their face for eternity.

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

MAGA’s political thinking has reached a point where it is so recursive that it’s very pointless to talk to them if you don’t agree with them. I suppose the same could be said for me as anti-MAGA as well, but usually if I feel the person who disagrees with me is acting in good faith I’ll at least give them a chance before walking away.

One talking point I’ve gotten recently from MAGA is the idea that it’s the Left that is “burning down cities because they don’t get what they want.” Of course, one could point out that the most egregious example of people turning to violence because they didn’t get what they wanted came from MAGA when they stormed the Capitol.

It’s arguments like that one the part of MAGA that makes me just tune out. I give up. How do you have an honest debate with someone who either always talks in bad faith, or if they do talk in good faith, they’re so absolutely partisan than they see compromise as weakness and, as such, something that has to be exploited and attacked.

Jesus Christ, fuck that!

And this totally ignores that I keep saying that MAGA has every reason to not be violent because they’re getting everything they want via the courts and politics. I keep saying this over and over and over and over again but MAGA is so full of angry crybabies who feel aggrieved that they…just…don’t…listen…to…me. They’re so angry about how thing think anyone who isn’t MAGA is gay or a “groomer” or both that they don’t even hear it when you tell them that they just need to be patient and they’ll get everything they want.

It’s very, very frustrating.

When about half the population hates the term “liberal” so absolutely that just the use of the term, period, for any reason evokes rage you got a problem. I mean, I can’t say “liberal democracy” or “liberal world order” without a MAGA person freaking the fuck out. FUCK YOU, MAGA, YOU COLLECTIVE PIECES OF SHIT.

Anyway. We’re doomed. We either turn into an autocracy or have a civil war. There is no middle ground and neither side is listening to the other. There is no solution at this point other than to just leave the country. Or figure out what you believe in and what you’re willing to suffer for in the real world when the time comes.

Things are dark and getting darker.

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

One thing that continues to really get on my nerves is how clueless the nattering nabobs of negativism on Twitter can be so clueless about the intentions of Reds. They got to great pains to point out the ostensibly “dumb” comments that Red “thought leaders” make.

First of all, all the dumb things that Red thought leaders say aren’t dumb — they’re craven. Red leaders know their audience and they know what gets them a prized Fox News primetime slot. Sometimes, to get on Fox News they simply jumble a series of MAGA catch phrases and buzz words together in something that doesn’t sound like English — at least to someone who isn’t MAGA.

As such, you have Red governors ranting about how unsecure the border is — even though their specific state is nowhere near the fucking border! But that’s not how the MAGA base sees it. They know that it’s not “the border” it’s The Border. In the mind of MAGA there is only one border — the national border. I don’t think anyone really appreciates that MAGA really wants that fucking wall built even though it’s completely bonkers to propose and that’s not even how most illegal immigrants get in the country.

I point them to a link that explains that it’s people overstaying their visas, not crossing the border that is causing the immigration crisis and because the article was in The Atlantic, they dismiss it as “bogus” and “liberal propaganda.”

The point of all of this is Blues and Reds are now so siloed in what they believe that neither side has any clue what the other side thinks and, as such, projects onto them what they believe they think. So, Reds think that all Blues are “groomers” who want to cancel anyone who doesn’t fit their media narrative. Meanwhile, Blues like me throw around the term “fascist” when it comes to Reds — something that often makes Reds quite upset. (They are fascists, by the way.)

But where does all this lead us? Well, as I keep saying there’s a spectrum of what is going to happen in the United States. On one end, there’s civil war (unlikely at this point ) and on the other is autocracy.

At the moment, it definitely seems as though we’re going to stop being two nations and start becoming just one — Trumplandia. I suppose it’s possible that we’ll have a civil war but if it happens it will be because Blues leave the Union, not because Reds decide to have that revolution they apparently have a huge hard on for. Fuck you if you want a MAGA revolution, by the way. Eat shit.

But we’re going to become an autocracy because the center-Left is so divided, poorly focused and poorly lead that they just don’t have the guts necessary to leave the Union and, as such, start a civil war. So, lulz. That’s it. We’re going to turn into an autocracy (probably much like Hungary) and Reds will, at last, not have to worry about being canceled.

They may have to worry about relatives — like me! — who refuse to get with the Red program being snatched off the street by ICE and found in a ditch somewhere, but ho um. I suppose it will be worth it to them in the long run.

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

Ok, so you’re drinking Coors Lite with your buds at the cabin, you know, the one where you SWEAR you saw Big Foot, and you come to your evening’s 2 minutes of Liberal Hate. You talk about how all liberals want to do is “groom” third graders and how Dr. Fauci OBVIOUSLY directly made money from COIVD and why isn’t he in jail yet?

Before things finish, though, you realize that there needs to be a revolution or something. So, in your anger, you search for “MAGA Revolution?” and end up here.

First of all, you’re a fucking cocksucker who was high when you “saw Big Foot.” Fuck you, you piece of shit.

Ok, but let’s get the the question at hand, “Will MAGA start a revolution?”

This is such a dumb, dumb, dumb sentiment for lots of reasons, chief among them it’s highly unlikely that MAGA will start a “revolution” than a “civil war.” But you’re obviously an idiot and “revolution” makes you feel better.

The crux of this question is the idea that, for some reason, MAGA is going to freak out and start murdering people like yours truly for political reasons, using all those AR-15s that you want to fuck so bad.

I hate to break it to you, you fucking cocksucker MAGA piece of shit, but it makes no sense at all for MAGA to start either a revolution or a civil war. Why in the world would MAGA do that? Republicans are just a few months away from winning the House and SCOTUS is handing MAGA everything it could possibly want and more on a silver plate.

I suppose there is the chance that Trump will get named Speaker in 2023 and he will demand a civil war unless both Biden and Harris are impeached by the House and convicted by the Senate. But that, while very possible, still is very silly and would be a massive self own when all Trump would have to do is be fucking patient.

The point is — the MAGA New Right has a concrete vested interest in there not being a civil war. Meanwhile, if there is going to be a civil war, it won’t be Reds who start it, but Blues. WHY IS THIS SO FUCKING HARD FOR PEOPLE TO UNDERSTAND.

JESUS H. CHRIST.

This frustrates me because plenty of very well educated Twitter liberals who should know better still chase the shiny object of Reds being interested in starting a civil war.

Ugh. What’s worse, I don’t even think we’re going to have a civil war! We’re just going to slouch into autocracy.

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

I talk a lot about the United States now, inevitably, becoming an autocracy, but what does that mean in real terms? Well, some context first. The violent elements of the MAGA New Right get a lot of attention, to the point that even some experts assume that if there is a civil war they will be the ones to start it.

This is complete bullshit. They’re politically ascendant and they have a vested interest in keeping the peace so they get everything they want without firing a shot. MAGA talks a lot about murdering people like me in cold blood for political reasons, but that’s more just the froth of a movement that is extremely impatient to strangle American democracy.

So, the key thing you have to appreciate is there is, in fact, a chance of a civil war during the transition to autocracy, but it should it happen, it will be Blues, not Reds who start it. And it will be at the state level, not some sort of rolling political violence like what was found with the Northern Ireland “Troubles.” Anyone who suggests that either isn’t paying any attention or they have some sort of warped fever dream where they get to use their AR-15s against liberals once and for all.

Anyway, back to autocracy.

There are two paths to autocracy for the US at the moment. One is, Trump becomes president again struggles to bring autocracy but can’t because he’s too dumb and lazy to pull it off. But he does set the stage for his hand-picked successor to pull it off. Trump is a big fat tub of lard and I just can’t see him making it through his second term. Given how deranged Trump is, his veep in this scenario could be anyone from Gen. Mike Flynn to malignant goober Josh Hawley.

The OTHER way is much more direct — Ron DeSantis becomes president and he slowly and methodically strangles American democracy. It could be any one of the dozen would be autocrats within Republican ranks that does it, but DeSantis is probably the most likely non-Trump nominee.

Ok. So then what?

Nothing will change at first. But soon enough, Republicans will push through a series of “reforms” that will allow them to establish an autocracy that will change the lives of everyday Americans in practical ways. Abortion will be be outlawed nationally without any exceptions. The social safety net will be gutted. Taxes for the poor will rise, while taxes for the wealthy will be cut down to the bone.

But one not-so-obvious “reform” will be with the Federal civil service. Trump already rants about how he wants to make it so he can fire anyone he likes for any reason. This usually comes up in context of how much he hates Dr. Fauci. And given how much my Traditionalist relatives hate Dr. Fauci, anything that would let the autocrat replace him with a MAGA toadie is something they can support.

So, once the autocrat can fire civil servants for political reasons, then there really will be a Deep State — only it will be MAGA. So, even if, somehow, a Democrat won the presidency and some point in the future, the MAGA Deep State would balk at actually doing anything he or she said.

And, lastly, we have to accept that there’s going to be a Constitutional Convention at some point after 2025. Now, obviously, it is also possible that in the near term someone like DeSantis could simply be named Speaker of the House and rule the country that way. He would personally pick some toady — maybe Lara Trump? — to be POTUS and would have a “Velvet Fist” situation where she would run around being hot and dumb while the real power would reside behind the throne with Speaker DeSantis. Such shenanigans are pretty standard with autocratic states.

The last thing to go would be freedom of speech. The first way this would be changed is when plutocrat allies of the autocrat buy up or invest in major media companies so they are beholden to him. Or, if the autocrat wanted to more…autocratic…he would simply threaten to revoke their broadcast licenses until they submitted. ICE would be weaponized and would become like the FSB in Russia. The existing ICE infrastructure would be used to throw people — like me! — into camps if they cross the autocrat.

So, that’s our future. Or we have a civil war. Take your pick.