Category: Cold Civil War

Does MAGA Really Have More Fun?

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

Someone on Twitter quipped that I “appear to have a miserable life” and I should become a conservative because they “have more fun.” Excluding the fact that all of that is complete bullshit, let’s investigate the idea that MAGA is “having more fun” these days.

The personal in the circle is not doing the Hitler salute, but is having a lot more fun I think.

I suppose it’s always more fun to burn things to the ground than to build them up. Building and defending institutions is hard work and so of course it’s more fun when you’re lighting a match and laughing as democracy goes up in flames. But that is the rather abstract political “fun” of destroying things.

If you want to be far more practical about things on a personal level — being conservative sucks. You’re against all the fun things of life like recreational sex even though you do it just as much, if not more than liberals.

Because you don’t mind being fucking hypocrites.

So, no. Being conservative is NOT more fun. It makes fucking cocksucker MAGA New Right people feel better to suggest this, but it’s just not fucking true. And, history has shown that autocracies ARE NOT FUN.

But conservatives aren’t thinking about that at the moment. They just want to “own the libs” on Twitter by suggesting if they only became conservative they would have more fun instead of their miserable lives of screaming at the top of their lungs that the arrival of…conservative tyranny.

It Appears The United States’ Decent Into Autocracy Is A Foregone Conclusion

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

I’ve pretty much seen enough — rather than have any sort of civil war, the United States is going to become a Hungary-style autocracy. I say this because the American center-Left has proven itself to be complete ineffectual. Combine this with how the entire edifice of the Republican Party is now fascist and I just don’t see how we don’t slouch our way into autocracy at some point after 2025.

Things won’t change initially, of course. But gradually, in fits and starts someone like a President DeSantis is going to gradually throttle what’s left of traditional American democracy.

And we’re going to let it happen with our eyes wide open. There will be a lot of gnashing of teeth on the part of Twitter liberals as all of this happens, but in the end they’re simply going to leave the country — I predict a least 1 million in the first few years.

Now, this is not an abstract to me. I’m a loudmouth crank who is often drunk and as our new autocrat consolidates power it is inevitable — because form follows function — that even that most prized of American rights, freedom of speech, will no longer exist.

All my hysterical predictions from the first Trump Administration will happen, just a number of years after I initially predicted them. Remember, the people who voted for orange dingus in 2016 wanted an autocrat. Trump has shown how weak America’s democratic institutions are and as such, once someone like DeSantis is POTUS they will know they can get away with some pretty white knuckled autocracy and people will abide by it.

The great irony is, of course, that the MAGA New Right is hysterical about how much they want to murder people like me in cold blood for political reasons that they — and a lot of third party observers — get wrapped up in the fanciful idea that Reds will start some sort of civil war.

This is a very dumb belief. Reds have no reason to start a civil war and it would be a massive, historic self-own on their part if they did such a thing. They just have a vested interest in keeping the peace so they can inevitably consolidate power without firing a shot.

There, are, any number of scenarios you could think up were we have a civil war but most of them require some pretty massive screw ups on the part of the MAGA New Right. If there is a Second American Civil War, it’s going to happen when Blue States leave the Union en masse.

The only reason why I can’t 100% predict there won’t be a civil war is, lulz, I can’t predict the future and any number of totally unexpected things could happen that might force Blue States to feel they have no other option but to leave the Union through a “National Divorce” and, as such, precipitate a civil war.

But, for the time being, I would advise you to get ready for A Very American Autocracy. The center-Left is fiddling while American democracy burns by being “woke” and getting way too wrapped up in things like pronouns. Autocracy is really, really popular in the United States at the moment and, as such, when the next Republican becomes president, that’s all she wrote for the American birthright of democracy.

‘Generation DeSantis’

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

I like to say that if every election your nation have is existential, then maybe you’re not really a democracy anymore. Well, there are so many would-be autocrats running around within Republican ranks at the moment who would throttle American democracy once elected that it’s hard to manage them all.

Ron DeSantis

But the one that my Traditionalist relatives love, love, love, love is Ron DeSantis, to the point that they tell me in a very snarky, asshole way that they want to “vote for him three times” when the time comes.

The reason DeSantis (and to some extent Tucker Carlson) is so dangerous is he is far smoother than Trump. He’s an opportunist. Trump was a stress test on our democratic institutions and they failed. A lot. So all DeSantis has to do is just get elected and the rest takes care of itself. The Republican Party is fascist and they will be more than happy to pass enabling acts that will allow DeSantis to purge the government of the “deep state.” They will look the other way when he threatens the broadcast licenses of major media companies and, a such, neuters them.

At the moment, follow is pretty much a foregone conclusion. DeSantis becomes president, becomes our first autocrat changes the Constitution via a Constitutional Convention and weaponizes ICE along the way. That’s it. That’s America’s future.

In fact, I would go so far as to say the only reason why I have any doubt that this is, in fact, our future is I can’t predict the future and it hasn’t happened yet. Otherwise, it’s just reality that is in the future.

So, what could go wrong?

The most obvious obstacle with Generation DeSantis becoming a reality is Trump. If Trump refuses to step aside and DeSantis manages to draw first blood, then all the other would-be autocrats lurking around would jump on Trump, too.

Then the best DeSantis can hope for is to be Trump’s veep. He would still be very well positioned to be our first true autocrat. BUT, we have to remember that Trump is so stupid and lazy that he could, single-handedly start a civil war at some point in late 2024 – early 2025.

So, on one hand, we have an autocratic DeSantis future and on the other we have civil war.

Is Tucker Carlson Running For President?

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

Everyone’s favorite bowtie fascist Tucker Carlson went to Iowa recently and makes one think — is he running? I can tell you from empirical evidence that he is EXTREMELY POPULAR with Traditionalists who are Good Germans but who are uneasy with Trump.

So it’s very logical for Carlson to at least ponder seriously the idea of running for POTUS. In a sense, Carlson is more Trump than Trump because he’s smarter and better educated so he can be even more white nationalist in an overt manner than Trump but say it in such a way that he can get away with it.

Now, some context.

Trump is such an idiot and something of a Frankenstein’s Monster that he refuses to retire and let DeSantis or whomever fight it out with Carlson to see who will be the fascist that makes America officially an autocratic state. So, there are two options.

One, Trump simply wades back into the race for president and politically cockblocks everyone else. The other option is there is a massive pitched battle between Trump, DeSantis and a few other would be autocrats like Tucker Carlson. Then, it’s a very last man (or woman) standing situation. To the point that there MIGHT be a brokered Republican convention which would be more about who would be Trump’s veep than anything else.

I don’t think enough people appreciate how important Trump’s selection of veep will be. Trump is old and fat and so out of shape that it’s doubtful he will make it through his second term. As such, if Trump goes nuts and picks, say, someone like Mike Flynn to be his veep — something I’ve been told on Twitter will never, ever happen — then we could really be up shit creek without a paddle.

Anyway, don’t sleep on Tucker Carlson. Even with Trump running around running for POTUS during the 2024 cycle, Carlson is SO popular that he still has a pretty decent chance of winning the nomination and, as such, the presidency. I mean, we’re never going to have another free and fair election unless there’s a civil war so, lulz, if you win the Republican nomination you’re POTUS.

Ugh.

Folks, America Has Some Serious Problems

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

I talk to my Traditionalist relatives and when they’re not talking about their extreme abstract fears of being personally “canceled” by the woke cancel culture mob just for being conservative — they believe that that very same woke cancel culture mob is trying to turn everyone gay.

In fact, I have to spend 10 minutes wading through their homophobic talking points distilled from Fox News and various rabidly conservative podcasts before we can even talk about the issues of the day. Relative to Traditionalists, the “homosexual agenda” has grow so absolutely powerful that no one can escape its maw.

Traditionalists think everyone who isn’t a Traditionalists is either gay or about to become gay or is “grooming” little tykes to become gay in the not so distant future.

I guess what it all boils down to is the center-Left has a branding problem. A serious one. MAGA has successfully painted their opposition as either “groomers’ or a “woke cancel culture mob” to the people who would otherwise serve as a firebreak against fascists: Traditionalists. When Traditionalists become Good Germans, your nation has a serious fucking problem on its hands.

But that’s where we are.

As I’ve written before, it definitely seems as though Americans have collectively just given up. We’re slouching towards either autocracy or civil war. We’re in a post-accountability era and, as such, that’s post truth. If you’re post truth, you’re pre-fascist. And only because officially becoming an autocratic state would bump up against American self-perception in a big way to I still have any doubts about us becoming an autocracy.

Otherwise, all systems are go for us to become a Hungary – Turkey style autocracy and maybe even drift towards being a Russian clone on a political basis. The center-Left is so weak, so focused on identity politics driven by the latest outraged tweet that we’re all just fucked. Some of it is out of the center-Left’s hands because of macro trends, and some of it is unforced errors.

Anyway. Good luck, I guess?

America’s Given Up

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

It’s clear to me that America, as a nation, has collectively given up. The forces of autocracy or civil war that are tearing us apart are just too strong. As I keep saying, we’re past the event horizon.

We’re either going to implode (autocracy) or explode (civil war.)

America is in this strange post-accountability era where Trump and his cronies are all above the law because we’re afraid to upset MAGA. This, of course, only emboldens them to commit more crimes. And, in the end, either we get some accountability through murdering each other in cold blood for political reasons or we turn into a MAGA autocracy and that’s that.

Given empirical evidence at the moment, I think we’re going to become an autocracy. Blue States just don’t have the willpower or leadership to leave the Union en mass. I get really irritated when people say our future is the “Troubles” like what they had in Northern Ireland. That is total bullshit. That says more about MAGA wanting to use all those guns they want to fuck to murder people like me than it says anything about what our future may be.

A “Troubles” situation is not applicable for the United States. We’re far more likely to simply skip that step and become an autocracy. And if we do have large scale political violence, it’s going to be because Blue States leave the Union.

Anyway, because of macro, tectonic issues this is the twilight of traditional America. Either this is a modern antebellum period, or we just going to become an autocracy and then the issue is how much do we drift into being a Russia clone.

2025: A New Fall Of Constantinople

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

The ebb and flow of history can lead to some pretty strange outcomes. The fall of Constantinople in 1453 flooded Europe with Greek scholars that led to all sorts of new thinking and, ultimately, the Renaissance.

Well, flash forward a few centuries and here we are — the barbarians are again at the gates of civilization and they’re probably going to break through. So, once MAGA turns the United States into an autocracy a flood of well trained, well educated wealthy liberals will flee the country for parts unknown. It also happened with the ascension of the Nazis in Germany and it’s going to happen in the United States.

These days, I find myself wondering not only where all those Americans will go, but how they will change world culture. I’m assuming that the first stop all these wealthy Blues will go to is Canada. But Canadians hate Americans, so it seems like Europe and Oceania might be a bit more receptive. I could see Perth — one of the more interesting cities in the world from my experience with individuals from there — might see an influx of Hollywood types.

Then, of course, there’s the chance that somewhere unexpected like the Philippines. The living is cheap, it has great weather and it’s big enough that a lot of wealthy Blues could land there and fall in love with the place. (I know I did when I visited a few times.)

But the thing we have to appreciate is end of American democracy will bring massive change to global culture. The States has about 335 million people. So, given the massive income inequality here — I mean, who can afford to use Blue Apron on a regular basis? — I could see as many as 10 million wealthy Blue Americans having the means, motive and opportunity to leave the country starting around 2025. That will be when MAGA Republicans seize power in the United States finally and permanently.

My Hot Take On America’s Dark Fate

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

At the moment, it definitely seems as though the United States is careening not towards civil war but autocracy. There might be a it of a frantic spasm in late 2024 – early 2025, but in the end the forces of autocracy will be too great. Then at least a million wealthy liberals will flee the country en mass — maybe more. They’ll flee to Canada, Europe and Oceania, taking wealth and the cream of American thinking and culture with them.

Despite all the demands that people “vote harder,” the United States will become a Turkey – Hungary style autocracy with permanent minority rule. That’s what happens if we’re lucky. If we’re not lucky, we become a political clone of Russia.

I say all this because of the limp wristed reaction on the part of Establishment Democrats to the the end of Roe. There have been no major protests. No general strike. Nothing. The center-Left just gave up. So, as such, it seems as though the same thing will happen between Election Day 2024 and Certification day 2025.

We’re just going to give up.

There’s no indication that the center-Left is going to make any type of last stand for democracy or that there will be any sort of “National Divorce” that would lead to civil war. About 250 years of democracy will end not with a bang but with a whimper.

Nothing will change at first — especially if it’s President DeSantis we’re talking about — but gradually, year by year, white minority rule will be established and a whole host of very unpopular Republican policies will be enacted without any viable recourse for now largely disenfranchised Americans.

And, remember, for all the talk about Reds starting a civil war, they have no reason to. They have a vested interest in keeping the peace since they’re getting everything they want via SCOTUS and regular old anocracy politics. We’re fucked and get out of the country while you still can — even though I still think it should be taboo to do so in the face of our impending doom.

If there is a civil war in late 2024 – early 2025, it will be because officially losing our democracy will just be too much for American self perception and because of macro forces individual center-Left people will bubble up to the surface and be the leadership of some new Blue State Union.

But that seems extremely doubtful. We’re fucked. The bad guys are winning and will ultimately win.

Twilight Of American Democracy

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

As much as it pains me to admit this, my Traditionalist relatives — whom I love dearly — are fascists. They want white autocratic minority rule, even if they would deny it if confronted with the idea. But in total what they support is fascism.

A lot of different things are happening at the same time. A number of macro forces that have been brewing for decades are coming to a heads at the same time. Of late, the issue of trans rights has come to the forefront of the minds of Traditionalists. It’s such an effective wedge issue that whenever my Traditionalist relatives need to piviot to something else, that’s what they bring up. They get rather worked up about “groomers.”

It’s very, very unsettling.

They would rather live in a white autocratic state with minority rule than risk the whims of the “woke cancel culture mob” that wants to “turn everyone gay” and to “groom” 3rd graders. Ugh. They come out and say that while they don’t like Trump, they really like his policies.

And, as such, even if we magically got rid of Trump politically, there are a dozen other would-be autocrats waiting in the wings to finish the job he started. Chief among them being, of course Ron DeSantis. He’s so popular among my Traditionalist relatives that they keep saying how they want to “vote for him three times.”

Just from my personal interaction, I can tell you that conservative white men are enraged by the “woke cancel culture mob” to the point that fascism seems very attractive to them. What’s worse, they’re in complete denial about MAGA is ascendant and all they have to do is be patient and they will get everything they want politically.

It’s rather surreal. They act like some sort of oppressed group when very soon their ilk will control everything and never give up power — at least as long as I’m alive.

I don’t have any solutions for you. I think we’re past the point of there being solutions. We’re in the montage before Something Bad happens. What that Bad Thing will be, I still don’t know. It will either be autocracy or civil war. For the time being, I’m just not prepared to believe we’re going to have a civil war. While I’m well aware of how civil war is on everyone’s mind, it definitely seems as though we’re just going to turn into an autocracy without even a blink of an eye.

Then, of course, we begin the process of gradually becoming a Russia clone and I have to worry about escaping ICE agents.

Why Is It So Difficult For The MAGA New Right To Realize They’re Politically Ascendant?

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

It’s quite regular for MAGA New Right people to float the idea of there being a National Divorce and, as such, a Second American Civil War. Here’s the latest example of this, found on Twitter:

Walsh’s hot take is sooo dumb because Red States would lose everything if they started a civil war. They have SCOTUS and they are politically ascendant. They’re one stolen presidential election away from controlling all three branches of government and away we go. And yet, here we are, with Walsh making it clear that he wants a civil war.

I really struggle with why the MAGA New Right does this when they have no reason to. The only thing I can think of is their grievances are so deep seated in racism and misogyny that they are extremely impatient and want everything they want NOW, rather than simply being patient.

The great irony will be, of course, when they do, in fact, get everything they want and then they have the audacity to complain when wealthy, well educated and trained Blues begin to flee the country in the millions. Not to mention how they will howl if there’s an actual civil war when Blue States, not Red States leave the Union.

I don’t know what to tell you. Republicans love to wallow in shameless hypocrisy and it’s meaningless and moot to point it out at this point.