I was put on blast by a Twitter liberal because I pointed out that if Trump goes full tyrant after his possible election then there will be consequences. She called my comment “optimism bias.”
As is so often the case when trying to debate a complex situation on Twitter, what I was trying to say was lost in the argument. I don’t think I’m being optimistic to suggest that we might have a fucking revolution if Trump goes full tyrant.
That seems anything but “optimistic.”
Seems pretty fucking dark to me.
Her argument, it seems, is this — we just have to give up if Trump wins re-election. We can’t even game out what we might do as a nation if Trump wins. We just have to cling on to rainbows and unicorn farts and put all our chips on “voting harder” and, as such keeping Trump out of office.
Jesus Christ does this confusion make me angry.
Rather than pinning all my hopes on “voting harder,” I think we should start to think seriously about the consequences of Trump being a tyrant in 2025. I just don’t think that the US will go the route of Germany in 1933. The two nations are just too different.
The US is huge, diverse, decentralized and has a strong tradition of democracy. And, if anything, I’m embracing the idea that there won’t be any guardrails if Trump is re-elected.
In fact, it is the very lack of political guardrails that might lead to the very dark scenario of a Blue Revolution that would, in some way, depose Trump.
Jesus Christ did that dumb argument on Twitter make me angry.
It definitely seems to me that the lingering and simmering stand off at the Texas border may lurch forward into new and dangerous territory at some point in the near future.
It seems to me that once it is absolutely clear that the immigration bill now in Congress is officially dead that Biden is going to do something like Federalize the Texas National Guard. The center-Left media echo chamber is slowly beginning to get woke to what’s going on down there and there is building pressure for Biden to act.
The question, of course, is what is going to happen when he does.
I honestly don’t know. But I do think that the US is a lot — A LOT — less stable than any of us would prefer. On a basic level, the Right has crossed the Rubicon when it comes to being willing to commit political violence to “hold the line” against the Federal government.
The fact that Nikki Haley in a craven effort to win votes in a primary she is going to 100% lose has said that states have a right to secede doesn’t exactly help the situation any.
But we’ve not reached a tipping point. Things could still go either way.
It’s comical to try to make some sort of 1-to-1 between Hitler and Germany 1933 and Trump 2025 if he wins. I’m not saying it’s not POSSIBLE that Trump might somehow peacefully transition us into autocracy, just that if it’s Trump doing it, things might not go according to plan.
I have a lot of reasons to believe this.
People keep telling me to read up on the rise of the Nazis….and I have already done it and continue to do it! And the more I read and learn, the more I just don’t see there being a direct 1-to-1 between Trump and Hitler. So the fact that people who claim to have read ever so much more than me about this situation would claim some sort of 1-to-1 is very, very curious — and very annoying — to me.
But let’s go through some reasons why I believe that we can’t just assume that America will peacefully transition into a fascist state if Trump becomes POTUS again.
First, in general terms, Nazism was an expansionistic political philosophy, while MAGA is one of retrenchment. Some of these next differences are pretty obvious.
Germany in 1933 was a smallish, pretty centralized nation that had only become a democracy about a decade before after a horrible loss as part of WW1. America, meanwhile, is a very prosperous, very decentralize and diverse nation where we have a very strong sense of ourselves as being a “free country.”
Furthermore, Hitler was a Great Man of History. He bent history to his will. He was willing to knock heads — using the SA — and he was also, just in general, willing to put in the hard work necessary to transition Germany into a fascist state.
Trump, meanwhile, is a complete lazy idiot. And, what’s more, he’s not a Great Man of History. He’s just an avatar, a vessel for some pretty severe issues in American politics and culture. He just assumes that if he invokes the Insurrection Act that somehow, magically, that will be enough to subdue the Blue parts of a nation of 335 million people.
If it was anyone else in Trump’s historical position, then, yeah, I might be willing to believe America will soon be a true fascist MAGA state. But this is Trump we’re talking about. If Trump just pushes America straight into the cold dark waters of fascism overnight…there will be some sort of consequences.
I’m not advocating anything! I’m just saying if you do a back-of-the-envelope scenario, it just doesn’t make any sense that Trump could whip out his fascist MAGA cock and get freedom loving Americans to willfully suck on it. It’s just not going to happen.
One last thing — a key element of Hitler maintaining control in the early days was the SA making it clear to the average German that they had better be Good Germans…or else. And just from my discussions with my far more conservative relatives, it seems as though if Trump started to come after cranks like me that even Traditionalists in America might sit up and taken notice at such tyrannical behavior.
But I can’t predict the future. Who knows. But I still have hope that, in the end, we will save ourselves because no one else will.
The thing about having a discussion on Twitter is everyone is running around with scissors and even when you agree with someone, sometimes, they feel obliged to disagree with you.
That’s what happened to me recently when I got into a debate about what might happen if Trump wins this year. There were all these people who telling me that if Trump goes full tyrant on us, then, that’s it. We’ll just become Nazi Germany Redux and no one is going to do anything about it.
I have some serious doubts.
But my doubts are so nuanced that it’s just not possible for people on Twitter to comprehend that I actually agree with them, with a few caveats.
The issue for me is if it was anyone else but Trump in charge of our transition into autocracy, then, yes, we would become an autocratic state without much trouble. But this is Trump we’re talking about.
There is a real risk that rather than him gradually guiding us into what seems inevitable at this point — autocracy — that he will thrash around and be so ham-handed in his efforts that he will make a lot of Blue America very very angry.
I’m not advocating anything, but if Trump just overnight turns himself into a dictator, that will bump into America’s self-perception. And that is why I think there is a chance that Trump, specifically, might be deposed in some way if he does all these crazy dictatorial things he is proposing.
America 2025 will not be Germany 1933. In 1933, Germans were ready and willing to embrace fascism. In America 2025, we’re talking about a huge, diverse and decentralized nation where not only is the military a foundation of our democracy, but the forces of fascism don’t have an SA to run around and knock heads.
And it will take time for an SA to be built out, even if the fascists wanted to create enough storm troopers to round up 20 million people to deport them. And that would be a window of opportunity for, say, a General Strike. But, of course, there is a real possibility that about 1 million wealthy Blues will simply flee the country rather than be the core of any sort of effort to topple ding-dong Trump.
I was accused of “optimism bias” on Twitter by someone who should know better simply because I believe it’s within the realm of possibility that Trump might be deposed.
JESUS FUCKING CHRIST.
I just can’t believe that if Trump does all the fucking bullshit that he is planning that the entire country is just going to shrug and let him do it. Really? Someone thinks that?
I know that, in general, Americans are pretty laid back, but if Trump starts to literally round up 20 million people and to go after his political rivals in a direct way… SOMEONE, SOMEWHERE IS GOING TO NOTICE.
I simply refuse to believe that Trump could go full tyrant and there wouldn’t be consequences of some sort. The US is too decentralized, too big, too diverse and has too much a tradition of democracy for Trump to go full tyrant without there being an effort to depose him.
One thing that has kept the lingering standoff between the Feds and Texas at a low, inconspicuous simmer is it really hasn’t caught the attention of the national press. Yes, Fox News and the rest of the outrage-fueled MAGA media have been all over it, but, in general, the center-Left MSM has been rather meh about it all.
There’s a chance that may change — last night, Stephen Colbert devoted a sizable chunk of his monologue to the stand off, going so far as to mention that the whole thing might cause another civil war.
Now that we’ve reached that milestone, we need to think about what happens next. I think it’s possible that Seth Meyers might devote his Closer Look feature to the stand off, which will add to the political momentum for Biden to do something about the situation.
But I think the key thing to think about is the immigration deal that’s ping-ponging around Congress at the moment. Once that deal is officially dead, then the Biden will be in the clear to escalate the situation with Texas by, say, Federalizing the Texas National Guard.
So, we’re not out of the woods yet. Add to all of this the looming possibility of another major regional war, this time in the Middle East, and….oh boy. I think we need to hunker down and maybe have a bug out bag handy in case the absolute worst happens.
These days, I often find myself thinking the unthinkable. Namely, what am I going to do if, well, the world ends. Now, obviously “the world ends” is something of a spectrum ranging from simply becoming a domestic political refugee to something far more severe like living through the aftermath of a DPRK H-bomb attack on DC or NYC.
I keep thinking about food. I keep wondering how I will eat in such a situation. I can’t cook and I can’t hunt. And while I have a downlow survivalist relative who wants to camp out in the middle of the woods armed — he lives in the wrong place. AND, he kind of misses the point — the state is going to be involved in any collapse of the US and, as such, I need to head to a safe Blue state should the worst happen.
In general, if the worst happens, I’m going to grab a few essentials and head north. First to Richmond than maybe see if I can get to NYC. Now, obviously, I’m working on the assumption that I won’t be alone leaving. I probably won’t even be able to leave until some sort of infrastructure exists that will allow me to live until I find succor somewhere safe.
But I do think a lot about this. I just don’t know how things are going to work out going forward.
Everything is so dumb. And one of the dumbest things to happen in a long time — and that’s saying something — is how MAGA is absolutely determined to attack Taylor Swift, to make her the focus of the culture wars.
Insane. Totally, completely insane.
All I can think of is that maybe that think that because of what she looks like — and her background in country — that she’s something of a “traitor” to the MAGA cause. So much so, that they totally ignore how popular she is and how the base of her support is liberal white women, not a group known to be swayed by the ranting of malignant ding-dong Trump.
I fear this is yet another example of how the greatest nation the world has ever seen could very well collapse into chaos because of…vibes. It could be that just because we don’t like each other that the US will implode into revolution and civil war a lot sooner than you might think.
I continue to worry about what might happen as part of the 2024 presidential silly season. It will be interesting to see what happens when we meet a Moment of Truth when Federal elected officials have to decide if they’re going to jump ship to some rebel forces.
Anyway. At the moment, that’s kind of bonkers to even speculate. But the point remains — leave Tay-Tay alone.
It definitely seems as though we’re in for a significant “vibe shift” caused by technology in the very, very near future. This fact has gotten me thinking about how there might be some unintended political consequences to something akin to a Petite Singularity.
I came to this realization walking around Wal-Mart today. Imagine if instead of struggling to find a human to tell me what I needed to know, the place was crawling with one of those androids that Elon Musk is working on. Put Grok or ChatGTP in them and download the entire floorplans and the stock of the store and they could replace the humans that work at the store.
This might happen at an affordable level by 2030 — if we don’t blow the world up first.
But imagine if there was a sudden tipping point on the android / AI front and a lot of DDD jobs that undocumented people usually fill were done by androids. That might turn off the tap of people coming across the border simply because androids would be doing the jobs they would otherwise be paid to do.
Everything is so dumb
Also, isn’t it at least POSSIBLE that that, unto itself, might unfuck up our politics when it comes to MAGA and abortion? And if Incels can fuck a sex bot instead being idiots thinking women have a responsibility to fuck t hem, then…maybe a lot of the culture war fueled by feminism and a low birth rate….might just vanish?
So, there might be some upside to the rise of coming AI android overlords. Of course, this solution will, in turn cause the rise of an AI / android rights movement that I’m sure MAGA will love to oppose.
And remember, we still have the possibility of absolute chaos at home and abroad starting from right about now until sometime in 2025. It could be that just like how WW2 paused the development of TV that the coming Second American Civil War / WW3 will do the same thing with the Petite Singularity.
It could be that after about 1 billion people die across the globe — specifically and directly because of the actions of MAGA and Trump — and all that is sorted out that it won’t be until about 2030 that all the cool technological goodies that we’re being promised today will actually be rolled out.
Impeachment, by definition, is a political process. That’s why President Andrew Johnson was impeached by Radical Republicans without there even being any articles — they filled them in later, after the vote.
So, I find the looming impeachment of Homeland Security Secretary Alejandro Mayorkas rather honest and refreshing — it’s being done by House Republicans for no reason but spite. They don’t even pretend that it has anything to do with “high crimes” — they just want to “send a message” to the Biden Adminstration.
And so, I wish they would do the same thing with Biden himself. Spare me the Hunter Biden bullshit. The only thing President Biden is guilty of on that front is of loving his wastrel son too much.
House Republicans should impeach Biden because of the “crisis at the border” and be done with it, rather than some sort of sham influence peddling charge.
But Republicans can only function in bad faith, so, lulz.
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