Category: The Resistance

The Bolts Continue To Pop Off The United States

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

The thing about history is while it’s happening, there is no narrative. As such, if you were living through, say, World War 2, the whole thing was value free. No one had any idea how, exactly, it was going to end. It was only, in hindsight, that we realized how obvious it was that the Nazis would be defeated.

I keep thinking about this as we careening towards late 2024, early 2025 when something akin to so-called Fourth Turning may occur. It seems to me at the moment that we’re just going to slip peacefully into a MAGA-themed autocracy. Smug, wealthy Blues who would otherwise be the leadership in any effort to do something about America’s transition into autocracy will be too busy leaving the country to do anything about it.

But there is a greater-than-zero chance that the two other scenarios might happen. It could be that either we have a civil war when Trump somehow manages to lose, or w revolution if Blues balk at our transition into an autocracy.

But remember, no one can predict the future. While it’s easy for center-Left people like me to think that we could solve all our problems by defeating MAGA on the battlefield, I hate violence and there’s no assurance that we, the Good Guys, will ultimately win.

So, it’s just as possible that Reds will successfully establish Trumplandia or any attempt at a Blue Revolution will fail and allow the consolidation of MAGA power as it is that we get to have the “cool stuff” associated with a Second Reconstruction.

All I can tell you is I will be astonished if we somehow, some way, manage to punt our structural problems down the road another four years. It definitely seems as though late 2024, early 2025 Will Be It.

The Fire Next Time

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

There is growing chatter online that because of rising COVID cases that there may be some sort of move towards a return to pandemic-era restrictions. I just don’t see such a thing happening.

There is just no political will for any such thing to happen. The number of COVID cases could surge to dramatic, frightening levels and there STILL would be no political will do go back to any pandemic restrictions.

Everything is very much up in the air about what might happen, so it could be that we’re going to get really worked up over nothing. But the fall and winter is usually when there is an uptick in things like COVID and so it’s at least possible that that might happen.

But, like I said, even if things get really, really dire and we have 1 or 2,000 deaths a day, just like the bad old days and, lulz, the outrage over any form of restrictions would be so intense that absolutely nothing would happen. We would just take it for granted that way, way, way more people are dying of COVID than is necessary.

I continue to fear that we may see a dramatic twist of fate in the near term that will throw all of our expectations about the 2024 presidential election cycle up the air in a big way. What that might be, I have no idea.

A Lazy Review of ‘Oppenheimer’

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

I almost didn’t go see Oppenheimer because I felt I knew enough of what happened in the movie from Tik-Tok videos that I didn’t need to. But I felt compelled to see it and I’m really glad that I did.

My key takeaway from the movie was that Christopher Nolan wanted to keep the audience off kilter in an effort to reflect what happened in real life with Oppenheimer. There were some pretty big twists in the confirmation plot line that I just didn’t see coming.

And, what’s more, the issue of if the United States should have dropped the A-Bomb was another interesting moral conundrum. It’s kind of sad that the dropping of the A-Bomb is one of a number of loaded historical issues that is almost impossible to talk about honestly without risking being “canceled.”

Anyway, in general, I really liked the movie. It is definitely a “dude” film in that it deals with “dude stuff.” I’m not suggesting women won’t like it or that women can’t do “dude stuff,” just that the audience for the film is obvious men who want to see other men do “dude stuff.”

The seemingly ever-growing number of issues that are taboo to even broach in our “woke” modern world is enough to make one just want to lie in bed and stare at the ceiling. I still think, though, that it’s at least possible that the existential nature of so-called Fourth Turning may cause all our notions of “woke” discourse to seem rather quaint.

Let Them Fight

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

In a growing sign of how surreal the modern world is, and how difficult it is sometimes to get through news headlines with a straight face — Elon Musk has blocked Catturd on “X.”

This comes after Space Karen made a big deal about how he wants to eliminate the ability to “block” someone on X. (I still have to do a double take whenever I write out “X” instead of “Twitter.”)

Anyway, the whole thing is bonkers. Both that Musk would block Catturd and the idea that Musk would do away with Blocking in favor of “enhanced Mute.” For someone so smart, Musk totally misses what is going on with social media at the moment.

If I was Musk, I would be a lot more focused on dragging X into AI era than I would screwing around with basic, existing features like Block. It is very easy to imagine a scenario whereby you could organically make an AI prompt a central feature of the text-based X.

And, yet, here we are, yelling at each other about the “who shot John” specifics of being blocked or even having the ability to block someone. We are living through the twilight of social media and Space Karen would be smart to leverage the user base of X in preparation for the next technological era, rather than worrying about dumb feature issues.

But, then, it’s not like I had $42 billion on hand to buy Twitter, only to drive into the ground.

Some Thoughts On Glenn Youngkin

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

Apparently there is a growing sense within the Republican monied class that they need a Great White Hope because of all of Trump’s legal problems. Among the people they’re considering is my governor, Glenn Youngkin. He’s waiting until the fall, after a state election, to decide if he will run or not.

The thing to consider about Virginia is it’s not really a swing or purple state so much as it is two states — one Red, one Blue — fused together who fucking hate each other’s guts. Rural Virginia is all-in with Trump and MAGA to the point that some Red counties in Virginia wanted to secede when we had a Blue governor.

The issue about Youngkin is he has proven himself to be just sort of There. He is moderate in temperment, but not politics. He is very much a MAGA person who would be just as fascist as Trump — and more effective — if he ran and became president. The Republican Party has been consumed by some very dark political forces to the point that the moment there is another Republican President, I don’t see how traditional American democracy survives.

And don’t forget that Youngkin won in Virginia not so much because of his message so much as enough moderate, independent Virginians were tired of having Democrat governors and voted for change. So any success he has had says more about the general ebb and flow of a functioning democracy than him any particular political aptitude on his part.

All of this interest in Youngkin seems like moved deck chairs on the Titanic to me. Something incredible would have to have happen at this point for Trump not to be the nominee and for him not to win the general in 2024. His victory in 2024 — and the dark, bonkers events that will be caused by that victory — seem to be something of an immutable force of political history at this point.

A Subtle Shift

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

On a political basis, I’m very much the red headed step child of my family. A quirk of my personal history has led me to be far more liberal than my immediate family. I love my relatives dearly, but it’s jarring that people so close to me could have such different political views from me.

It’s so bad that I often think that my personal life would be much, much better if I sold my soul to fascism and became MAGA. It really would improve my personal interactions a great deal.

But, alas, that’s not going to happen.

I bring all of this up because I had of my occasional in-depth political discussions with one of my MAGA-adjacent relatives and I was taken aback by the subtle shift in their political sentiment.

They have been really big DeSantis supporters in the past, but it definitely seems as though they have resigned themselves to Trump being the nominee. What’s more, they were not as quick to dismiss my “hysterical doom shit” about the possibility of a National Divorce if Trump should somehow magical not win the 2024.

My relative inhabits that tiny political sliver of people who are traditional conservatives who really like Trump’s policies, but aren’t willing to look past the issue of electability. This relative desperately wants to win so the “woke cancel culture mob” can be destroyed once and for all.

They don’t think Trump can win. I, of course, think that Trump is 60,000 votes in 5 swing states away from winning. But I do think that the subtle shift in my relative’s political views are indicative of broader forces at work within the Republican Party.

Something is shifting, but what the ultimate consequences of that shift might be, I don’t know.

I’m Growing Worried Trump May Freak Out When He’s Booked In Georgia

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

The more I learn about what ding-dong Trump is going to go through when he is booked in Georgia this week, the more alarmed I grow. Trump is already crazy enough as it is, there is a chance that when he sees first hand how bad the conditions are in jail while he waits to get booked that he might freak the fuck out.

I don’t think we appreciate how bonkers Trump could go between now and Election Day 2024. His natural instinct is to lash out whenever he feels trapped and my concern is he might begin to grow ever more transactional to the point that he’s directly telling his followers what he wants them to do to protect him on a personal basis.

The thing about Trump is, you just never know what that fucking crazed idiot is going to do. That, in a sense, is his power. Because you never quite know what to expect, your natural inclination is to assume the absolute worst.

Remember, Trump is an avatar, a vessel for broader problems in the American political system. As such, as I’ve mentioned numerous times before, we have to take seriously a scenario whereby Trump personally is responsible for a National Divorce in late 2024, early 2025 if he should somehow, magically manage to actually lose the 2024 election.

The stage is already set. The two sides so hate and misunderstand each other at this point that I just don’t see how we make it through the 2024 election cycle in one piece. There is a real risk that no matter who wins the election, one side or the other is going to feel they will have to take matters into their own hands because they can no longer get what they want peacefully through political means.

I don’t know what that means, but I do have my uneasy suspicions. It definitely seems possible that if Trump loses in 2024 — which I don’t think will happen — he will throw down the gauntlet and demand a National Divorce specifically to keep myself out of prison.

But, who knows. I sure as hell don’t.

A Ping From A Dark Future

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

Sometimes, you see something on social media that makes you sit up and take notice. I saw this on “X” today and was alarmed.


The reason why it alarms me is this type of thinking just the sort of thing that would make America ripe for a “National Divorce” if Trump loses in 2024 and begins to rant Reds have to leave the Union once and for all. The logic is there already, you just need to add the passions of the a presidential election to produce a Secessionist Crisis.

And, yet, who knows? A lot can happen between now and late 2024, early 2025.

‘Go Woke Go Broke’

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

One of the alarming similarities between the 1850s and the modern age is how both sides seem obsessed with boycotting this or that thing. Usually, the ones that work are very simple to understand.

Take, for instance, the boycott of Bud Lite that happened as part of the overall Gay Scare of the last few years. It’s a very simple type of boycott — don’t drink Bud Lite unless you want your guy friends to think you’re gay or supporting the “gay agenda.”

This is a very simple message to convey and I can tell you from personal experience that this boycott has really resonated with the people who live around me in BFE Virginia. So, of course, one of the main proponants of this boycott would be seen with, you guessed it, a Bud Lite in his hand.

It’s clear that the entirety of the Republican worldview is done in bad faith and specifically designed to “own the moment” no matter what. It’s thinking like the “go woke go broke” campaign that is probably going to lead to uncontrollable global climate change.

Things suck and there doesn’t seem to be any solution. Though, of course, the astrology for dudes known as The Fourth Turning would suggest that in 2024 we’re going to decide matters one way or another.

At This Point, The Only Unknown Is How Severe The Political Crisis In Late 2024, Early 2025 Will Be

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

I was shocked in 2020 when history managed to pull a fast one on me and came up with a Third Way. In the years leading up to the 2020 election, I could never have predicted that not only would we have a pandemic, but Trump would be too dumb and lazy to do some pretty basic autocratic moves to stay in power.

As we approach 2024, the key thing we all have to remember is because of the Electoral College, the fascist nature of the Republican Party is obscured. It’s just not readily obvious what’s going on — the Republican Party is a fascist party, while the Democratic Party is a hodge-podge of center-Left pro-democracy special interest groups.

Because of the ebb and flow of politics and history, it’s inevitable that the fucking MAGA Nazi fascists of the Republican Party will gain power again. The only unknown at this point is if it will be deranged ding-dong Trump would tries to transition us into autocracy, or if it will be a younger, more focused and polished fascist who does it.

So, really, it seems as though the only known unknown of 2024 is how bad things will get. Will we just peacefully transition into a MAGA autocracy, or will we have some sort of civil war (Reds) or revolution (Blues.) The third option — that of us just punting our structural problems down the road another four years, just doesn’t seem all that viable.

The United States is a lot less stable than one might think and at this point it seems like just an issue of which side, Left or Right, feels that they can’t stand the current political arrangement.

I no longer think Blues will leave the Union if it comes to that,but rather do something a lot closer to a revolution. My gut tells me that Blues, because they don’t have the deep historical echo of the Civil War in their collective political race memory, would rather reimagine the United States than leave it — hence a revolution.

But who knows. I sure as hell don’t.