It seems clear to me that we have to take seriously the prospect of some sort of significant political event happening because of the 2024 presidential election. Whatever it is that happens could be the biggest domestic event in American history since 1860.
The Right is chomping at the bit to have some sort of excuse for political violence, while the Left is so busy fighting over pronouns as to be waiting for a sucker punch.
The key thing I’m worried about for the more immediate future is the prospect of severe political violence that would indicate that far worst things are in store for late 2024, early 2025. In fact, I would go so far as to say it has been, in general terms, eerily quiet on that front.
Not that I want any such thing to happen, but the Right can only freak the fuck out in rather absurd ways for only so long before some idiot decides to act on it. It’s possible that the convictions associated with the January 6 insurrection have given a lot of fascists pause for thought.
Maybe that’s what’s going on?
But I really worry that soon enough that will change and we may have some sort of co-ordinated political violence that would definitely make it clear that the country is in for serious trouble in late 2024, early 2025. Or not. Maybe I’m really over thinking things and, thankfully, we’ll somehow manage to muddle through like we have so many times in the past.
The issue with the term “woke” is it is so loaded now — and so defined by people who use it for whatever they need it to mean — that it’s really hard to pin down an exact meaning. In general, relative to my point of view, to be “woke” means you are a cultural Leftist who has such a ridged orthodoxy on certain issues that you would rather the United States become a MAGA fascist state than give centrists some wiggle room.
But that’s just me. I suppose in the minds of ambitious Republican politicians, “woke” is a nebulous catch-all of far Left agendas that scare your voters. But because being against the “woke cancel culture mob” polls well, you slather the term over anything — and I mean ANYTHING — that it in anyway seems “liberal.”
Because the term “liberal” has become so hated, so loaded within Republican ranks that you can’t use it at all for any reason. You can’t even use it to describe what the United States is — a liberal democracy.
There is no denying that younger generations have different social expectations that can leave old coots like me at a loss. And, yet, at least I’m willing to admit and acknowledge that just because I don’t understand what the youngins think, doesn’t mean it’s automatically wrong.
But the obsession with this or that thing being “woke” in the minds of MAGA Republicans is part of a broader macro problem — the political center no longer exists in the United States and the two sides are receding from each other at an astonishing rate.
Neither side understands the other and the MAGA Right seems determined to either establish a fascist state in the United States or force the issue of a National Divorce.
In the end, once things grow far more existential in nature, the very notion of this or that thing being “woke” will seem rather quaint.
Soon enough, one won’t be able to figure out the politics of someone wearing a shirt with Trump’s mugshot on it. Either you’re wearing it in support of Trump, or you’re wearing it ironically to remind people of its existence.
But Trump’s mugshot is yet another indication of how we’re rushing towards Something Bad in late 2024, early 2025 because it reminds us of how far apart the two sides are.
The key issue is, of course, who wins the 2024 election.
If Trump wins the 2024 election — as I believe he will — then, lulz, people like me will be so busy worrying about avoiding being sent to a weaponized ICE camp that we won’t really have much time to think about anything else. But if Trump somehow manages to lose — which I find farfetched — then there is a very real possibility of a civil war.
A lot of all of this rests on what the reaction of state Republican Parties. If Trump loses and begins to rant about the need for a National Divorce so he doesn’t go to prison, do they listen to him? Are we really so divided that that is even a possibility? The Right sure would like to have us think that is a possibility, but I dunno.
The idea that the wealthiest, most powerful nation in the world would implode over the fate of a ding-dong like Trump is a bit much. And, yet, here we are. Even during the recent Republican primary debate the notion of a “cold civil war” got slipped in a few times because it was a way to stroke the base.
But as I keep saying, they say you go bankrupt gradually, then all at once and we at least SEEM to be in the “gradually” part of that equation. The Right is beginning to believe that they can’t get a fair shake politically for their fascist Nazi views and because of the deep echo of the First Civil War in the minds of a lt of white Southerners, well, there you go.
The whole situation is fucked up. There are no easy answers. And for the time being, we just have to wait and see. Though, I have to say, whenever I find myself looking at content from the MAGA echo chamber, I’m not exactly encouraged that this Union can be saved if Trump loses in 2024.
Let me make one thing clear — I just don’t think Trump is going to lose in 2024. There are macro trends afoot that are going to make it damn near impossible to prevent Trump’s return in 2025.
As such, we need to begin to prepare for the fascist shit-show that will result starting in 2025. The people who would do something about our transition into a Russian-style autocracy — smug, wealthy Twitter liberals — will simply level the country en masse rather than risk their “lives and scared honors” do anything about the final destruction of American democracy.
But, just for “fun” let’s imagine what might happen if Trump manages to lose in 2024.
It definitely seems that Trump would have a vested interest in demanding a “National Divorce” if he lost in 2024. He doesn’t want to go to prison and he’s so stupid that he might begin to rant about the need for a “National Divorce” without realizing that Red States across the country would actually begin to take him up on the issue.
And it’s not going to be some sort of “MAGA revolution” where good olde boys run around shooting all the liberals they can find with their AR-15. It would be National Divorce done at a state level just like the first civil war. Because a lot of America is “purple” on the ground, there would be a massive amount of domestic political refugees as people began to vote with their feet when it became clear that you have to live in a state that fits your personal political views.
The Red States will begin to call up secessionist conventions and away we go. How all that would play out, I just don’t know. It really could go either way for a number of reasons. I do know not only would a lot of people die in the United States for no reason, but WW3 would probably happen as well once it became clear that the United States was too busy bombing itself to worry about keeping the global peace.
But all of that is rank speculation. It could be I’m way overthinking things. I could be that, lulz, we’ll somehow, magically, manage to punt our problems down the road another four years.
The American Left and Right continue recede from each other at an alarming rate. The Right is so consumed by the culture wars and “owning the libs” that they are oblivious to once were really big concerns for them. So, all the talk about how Trump added trillions to the national debt just don’t mean jack shit on a political basis.
And, of course, the Left doesn’t do itself any favors by fixating on the very things that alarm and enrage the Right (or, more specifically, the Centrists who win elections.) The Left screams at the top of their lungs about “protect trans kids” when, as far as I can tell, there aren’t really all that many trans kids to “protect.”
One thing that has to be noted is the thing that MAGA people love about Trump is he’s a fighter. He has no ideology other than ranting about, in the stupidest way possible — a pretty complex macro issue: a lot of white Christian (men) are enraged by what’s going on in America.
Trump’s “magic sauce” is he’s a fighter. White Christian (men) feel put upon for various reasons, disenfranchised and so they love the “idea” of Trump. They could care less about what he actually believes or does — hence they ignore all the trillions of dollars he added to the national debt.
Having said all that, it’s clear that Vivek Ramaswamy has figured out enough of Trump’s winning formula that I believe he is going to soon be the second place “placeholder” that will exist solely for the purpose of being the nominee should something happen to Trump to make no longer politically viable.
From the clips I’ve seen of Vivek, he seems like just the sort of guy that the MAGA base would love. He’s post-truth, makes people like me angry and alarmed and so there you go — Trump 2.0.
That’s the thing about Ron DeSantis — he totally misses the point of what attracts people to Trump. He thought that by running to the Right of Trump on culture war issues that he could at least by the guy the party turned to if something happened to the Dear Leader.
But DeSatanis is to weird, off-putting –and humorless — to pull it off. Vivek, at least, has a big goofy grin on his face all the time. And Vivek knows the MAGA base well enough to know that they just don’t care about issues. They see them as white noise.
All the MAGA base wants is to “own the libs.” They hate liberals so much that many of them can’t even use the word “liberal” for any fucking reason without getting fucking triggered.
This is a “not great” situation for a lot of reasons. But it’s the political world we live in at the moment and it’s only getting worse. The big unknown of all of this is, of course, how far things going to go? Are we going to reach a breaking point where we turn to political violence because our political system finally collapses?
That is a question I don’t have the answer to and worry about a lot. At the moment, it really could go either way. We could descend into civil war (Reds) / revolution (Blues) or we could simply slide peacefully into autocracy.
In general, I’m a one-issue voter: I want to live in a functioning Western democracy. That’s it. I feel as though if we can simply establish that baseline on a national basis that the rest will take care of itself. Democracy is messy, but, in general, it does usually come up with political solutions that are the best for everyone.
I think of this fact when I see some stray piece of information about the center-Left that I can’t brook. I’m not in a fucking cult like MAGA cocksuckers, so I can step back and say, “I just don’t support that.”
This all goes back to my desire to live in a functioning Western democracy. There are so many issues that I totally agree with when it comes to the center-Left agenda, that I’m willing to hold my nose for the time being because I feel that if we can just return to having a functioning liberal democracy then rest will take care of itself.
And, I think, in general, that we have to accept that the real battle before us is simply to keep what’s left of our democracy viable. The fucking fascists know that if they can transition us into autocracy then, that’s it — they will get everything they want without an opposition at all.
I still get annoyed when I get attacked from my Left, though.
Last night, Vivek Ramaswamy gave off serious Trump 2015 vibes and I think the MAGA base is going to eat it up. The thing about Vivek is he has managed to come up with a viable way to stake out a position as a placeholder, backup plan in case something happens to Trump and he can’t the Republican nominee.
The key issue is that Vivek has a very Trumpian vibe that DeSantis can’t pull off. As such, I suspect that Vivek is going to surge in the polls pretty quick to the point that I don’t know if DeSantis is even viable anymore.
The key issue is smug Twitter liberals don’t “get” what MAGA wants and so they totally miss that Vivek taps into the same populist rage that Trump has used to great success.
There is issue of race, of course. Given how fucking racist most of the MAGA base is, it does make you wonder if they can look past the fact that he’s not white and not Christian. And, yet, any study of history will tell you that generally history takes the most ironic path possible.
As such, yes, of course Vivek has a real possibility of being what DeSantis thought he was going to be — Trump without Trump. Vivek is young and smart and yet also gives the populist base all the fucking fascism they they expect in a presidential candidate.
Vivek seems well verse in all the paranoid, bizzaro talking points that the MAGA to the point that I just don’t see DeSantis being a viable candidate anymore. The key thing that seperates Vivek from DeSantis is Vivek has, well, some sort of personality. It may be grating, but at least it’s a personality.
DeSantis, meanwhile, just seems…there.
Anyway, I just don’t think we should underestimate the potential power of Vivek going forward. That’s my hot take for the moment, at least.
It is clear that I have to stop drifting towards my goal of being a published author. I have to start setting cold, hard metrics that I have to meet on a regular basis. And it’s not just writing that would be involved — I have a small library of books in my To Be Read pile (I’m not joking).
I continue — for the time being — to be in something of an ideal situation when it comes to writing a novel and so I need to show how grateful I am by actually working on it in a more focused, structured manner. I can’t just daydream all the time and expect to be querying within a year.
While I know I need to do this, in practice it’s very, very difficult. I just want to sit around and daydream all the time while actually doing any work on the novel(s) in short bursts every once in a while.
I need structure. I have a second novel gamed out now and if I’m going to have to creative tracks, I can’t continue to drift.
Of course, the great irony of all of this that it’s possible I could do all this hard work and then, lulz, just as I’m querying seriously the entire world goes tits up because fucking Trump single-handedly starts a civil war /revolution.
Ugh. Fucking ugh.
But you have to have hope, I suppose. I can’t just stop everything and wait around to see if The Fourth Turning happens in late 2024, early 2025.
With it growing more and more clear that malignant ding-dong Trump is probably going to win re-election in 2024, we have to start taking seriously the consequences of that particular political tragedy.
The most obvious foreign policy clusterfuck that will happen in a Trump second term is the end of NATO. What’s more, Trump will probably do everything in his power to hand over the entirety of Ukraine to the Russians. Given how bonkers and enamored Trump is with Russian-style autocracy, not even a complete rearrangement of the existing post-WW2 world order is out of the question.
And, what’s more, Trump could pull out our 28,000 man “tripwire” in South Korea as all of this is going on.
Now, it is difficult to comprehend exactly how the world’s nations would react to such momentus foreign policy moves on the part of King Ding-Dong I. But such an event would create not just chaos, but something of a power vacuum that would probably be filled by China.
And, in all honesty, I have to admit that in the back of my mind the idea that all the smug Twitter liberals might stop their massive exodus from the states if it was clear that Trump was going to remake not just America, but the world, in his deranged image.
Again, let me be clear — I hate violence of any sort. I hate guns, I hate violence and I’m a man of ideas and peace. Besides, I’m too old to make much of a difference to anything — or anyone — no matter how bad things might get. I suppose some overzealous ICE agent might murder me because I refuse to shut up about what a fucking cocksucker Trump is, but, lulz, other than that, no.
But Trump really gets as bad as we all fear, there is a least a small chance that he may spark something akin to a revolution on the part of Blues. There is always the chance it will fail and MAGA will only consolidate power in its aftermath, but I think we aren’t giving enough credience to the idea that there is a small chance that it won’t be Reds who freak out and take to the streets, but Blues.
I still don’t think that’s possible. Trump is going to win a second term and we will slide peacefully into a Russian-style autocracy. At least 1 million smug wealthy Blues will leave the country starting Election Day and that will be that. Soon enough, the existing ICE infrastructure will be weaponized and I’ll be rounded up.
One of my conservative relatives — who I love dearly — continues to be enraged by the COVID restrictions of several years ago. They talk about how much they think they were “lied to” by the elites, yadda, yadda, yadda, blah, blah, blah.
Whenever this relative mentions grievance –which is often — I note to him that that is not how Republicans will win the 2024 election. Unless there is a significant uptick in COVID cases that leads to an attempt to bring by COVID restrictions, people in 2024 are going to want 2024 solutions, rather than someone who looks back at what happened in 2020.
Apparently, there is some belief within Righwing Twitter that those restrictions are coming back this fall. I find this fear delusional for a number of reasons, the chief of which is there just is no political will to do such a thing. Thousands of people could be dying a day from COVID this fall and winter and, lulz, there will be absolutely no political will to do anything about it.
It does make you wonder what will happen if some sort of pandemic happens in the future that is far, far worse than what we experienced with COVID. There is a real risk that if some sort of Big One happens that it could be that not until 10,000 people are dying a day will we manage to have any sort of political will to lock the country down.
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