Category: The Resistance

The Nature of Trump’s Continued Popularity

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

Ok, here’s what’s going on with Trump and that core 38% of the electorate who continue support him, no matter what. It’s no so much Trump the person as it is Trump the “idea.” Trump’s base of support comes from conservative white Christians who feel put upon by the “excesses” of the center-Left.

They don’t consider themselves racists or bigots, but relative the “woke” center-Left, they feel like they’re being portrayed that way. As such, they are angry over being put upon by the rise of a browner America and women with economic agency.

As such, they want the “good old days” of white Christians being “on top” to return. Since they can’t get that, they cling to a fighter like Trump, even though he is demonstrably bonkers, racist and stupid.

So, at this point, it really doesn’t matter what Trump does. He’s still 60,000 voters in 5 swing states away from being POTUS again. We’ve kind of given up. On a macro basis the American Republic is on its last legs. Or we have a civil war /revolution of some sort starting in late 2024, early 2025 and after bombing or ourselves into oblivion the “good guys” win and we gradually return to hyperpower status, though in the context of a New World Order after a Third World War.

I can’t predict the future, but that definitely seems like one option.

Or, put another way, the rise of someone as fucking stupid as Trump definitely indicates that America is at a crossroads. Either we establish a Third American Republic, or, that’s it. That’s all she wrote — we turn into a Russian-style illiberal democracy probably with some form of AI being involved for good measure.

Which direction will we take?

I honestly don’t know.

But back to Trump.

All the liberals who continue to be aghast at Trump’s popularity are really missing the point.They are very, very out of touch. A lot of white Christians — a few of whom I’m related to — mean well, but just can’t grapple with the rapid social changes of the “woke” cultural left.

So, they fell pushed into the arms of fascists. There are no easy answers to this particular situation. While we may still punt our problems down the road, in general, we’re very, very fucked.

Good luck.

Little Green Men, Or: MAGA Is Why We Can’t Have Nice Things

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

I don’t know if I should laugh or cry at how MAGA (and the far Left RFK, Jr) are using the news of credible evidence of UFOs to tout their bonkers conspiracy theories. It’s very, very fucking annoying.

Has no one learned the idea that correlation is not causation?

Just because things are similar, or seem to be acting in conjunction with each other, doesn’t mean the fuckinig are!

But this crazy, bonkers rhetoric on the part of professional idiots has gotten me thinking — what if Hard First Contact came? What would be the political reaction?

It seems to me that after the shock wore off, the center-Left would be interested in finding out more about the ETs, while the center-Right would grow hysterical and probably eventually want to either blow them up or convert them to some sort of weird interstellar Christianity.

I wish I was kidding.

But America is sooooo fucking divided and growing more so every day that there simply is no way that anything — ANYTHING — will force us to get our act together.

That’s why late 2024, early 2025 COULD be a rather monumental moment in time. I’m always — always — wrong, so, lulz, we may just muddle through things like we always do…..but I am worried.

It seems like either a full-blown descent into fascist autocracy is going ot happen as part of the 2024 – 2025 timeframe, or we have a civil war (Reds)/ revolution (Blues.).

At the moment, I think we’re probably just going to slide peacefully into autocracy and that will be that. If we’re lucky. And it will probably all be so subtle that we don’t even realize it.

What’s The Matter With CNN?

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

It seems to me that the crux of problem with CNN is there is No Center. One side wants me to believe the sky is green while the other side sees that the sky is blue.

Pick a side, CNN. Or a side will be chosen for you.

If they went all-in with MAGA, then they would be really popular. If they went all-in with anti-MAGA, they would be popular. But this issue of trying to play it straight down the middle is bulshit.

Things fall apart. There is no middle. Any attempt to square the circle of modern American politics by doing such a thing is a fool’s errand. Get with the program. CNN needs to accept that Blue and Red are receding away from each other at an alarming rate.

If they keep trying to place themselves in “the center” they’re just going to be fools. Like I said — pick a fucking side. Only by doing that, CNN, will you find any success. I’m serious. You’re fooling yourself to think there is some magical “center” you can reside in that will make you respected by both sides.

It just isn’t going to happen.

Make up your mind one way or another.

I’m Impressed But Not THAT Impressed With The New Apple Vision Pro

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

I’m tentatively willing to suggest that the Apple Vision Pro may be A Big Deal. If you fused XR technology with AI technology — that’s a big fucking deal. And, yet, I don’t know. The jury seems still out to how big a deal it will all be.

One thing we need to understand is the context of all of this going forward — late 2024, early 2025 definitely seems to be a Perfect Storm, a convergence of sorts of political and technological tipping points. It could be that we’re going to fate not just a Fourth Turning but a Petite Singularity around that time.

Or, put another way, things are moving really, really fast on a number of different fronts.

If we dive into a severe recession by late 2024, early 2025 because of a Petite Singularity just we’re facing the existential choice of autocracy or civil war. Oh boy. That would really suck.

And, yet, I’m always wrong, so, lulz.

It could be that I’m over thinking things. But I do think that the years 2025 – 2029 will be years of dramatic transition. If we’re lucky, we transition into some sort of autocratic techno-state. If we’re NOT lucky, then, well, lulz, we will have some sort of civil war / revolution during those years and we’ll spend the 2030s figuring out what the post-WW3 New World Order will be like.

Yikes.

But that’s just more of my “hysterical doom shit.”

I think we’ll probably just muddle through. We (almost) always do.

‘Polite Robot’

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

Given that there is a non-zero chance that AI — or AGI — could very well mean the end of humanity, I continue to grow aggravated with people who complain that the mainstream LLM systems aren’t a cool as they used to be. One person compared the most recent version of ChatGPT to a “polite robot.”

What the fuck do these people want, the Terminator?

It seems as though a small, but vocal portion of the userbase of LLMs literally want the most hateful, spiteful possible versions of the technology so, I don’t know, they can have their personalities reflected back at them? I do think that we’re rushing towards a “Her” future where everyone has a digital assistant that has near-AGI levels of intelligence.

That, of course, will bring with it all sorts of problems — namely, it’s just a matter of time before Incels hook AGI technology up to sexbots and anway we go. You thought Incels were a pain in the butt before, just wait until they have absolutely NO contact with actual human women and they get all their creepy weirdo dreams made a reality by sexbots who are programmed to be pliant and submissive.

But again — I struggle to understand why fucking Redditers seem to want a technology that’s been compared to the a-bomb to be totally unregulated so any hateful dumbass could end civilization because, I don’t know, the wall didn’t get built?

Fuck those people. Idiots.

But it’s that mentality that we have to work around going forward. The whole issue of regulating AI — or AGI — could turn into something a lot like global climate change in the sense that it will get wrapped up in the whole Red-Blue divide and, in the end, nothing will be done about it.

Though, I have to note, if we reach something akin to the Singularity and, like….uhhhhh…no one has any jobs, then it could be that when regulation of AI or AGI is finally filtered through the Red – Blue prism that neo-Luddism will be what MAGA evolves into, leaving the idea of “light touch” regulation for the Blues.

Or something. Whatever it is, it will be fucked up.

The Oscars Should Embrace Gender-Neutral Acting Categories

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

I think it’s time to end the gender-specific acting categories at the Oscars. I believe this not because of any passionate fondness for non-binary people, but rather I just think its time.

Just like how I believe young women should be required to sign up for Selective Service, I think we should give male and female actors the opportunity to go head-to-head. I’m well aware that there are A LOT of problems with this idea. The whole non-binary issue — which is what the Little Gold Men podcast focused on — is besides the point.

We need to move past having Best Actor and Best Actress nominees, etc, so the point where men and women are judged by their ability head to head as opposed to sequestered by sex. From what I tell from the Little Gold Men podcast, The Academy is very, very slow to change such things.

I wouldn’t focus on the whole non-binary issue if I was marketing this for the broader public. I have no problem with non-binary people, but if their concerns are played up in any change of the categories then a lot of mainstream people will roll their eyes at how clueless Hollywood is.

But if you just say this is a “modernization” of the Oscars, then I think a lot of people will embrace it without all the “woke” fuss.

Or not. What do I know.

The Looming Prospect of An American Fourth Reich — The MAGA Right Has Gone Full Fascist

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

Just in the last few days, the MAGA chattering class on Twitter has decided to go all-in on fascism. They’re openly talking about the need for a Right wing dictator along the lines of Franco, of all people.

And, given that it definitely seems as though the United States is about to default for the first time ever, it seems as though the conditions for the US to transition into a fascist state are just about there. Trump will be get re-elected — even if he’s under indictment for violating the Espionage Act — he will demand MAGA Enabling Acts be stapled to the Constitution via a new Constitutional Convention and, there you go — The Fourth Reich.

All my hysterical doom shit — the shit that got me blocked by Twitter liberal darling Mueller, She Wrote — will come true. And we’ll be faced with the existential choice of autocracy or civil war / revolution.

It definitely seems as though that’s our future. Or, put another way, the moment the US defaults for the first time, all bets are off. The French Empire defaulted in the years leading up to the French Revolution, so, lulz? Either we implode into a white Christian ethnostate or we explode into civil war / revolution.

If it happens, it’s probably going to be at some point in late 2024, early 2025.

It Definitely Seems Like America is About To Default

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

Welp, I think America is going to default. Or, more specifically, I think we’re going to default, Biden is going to be forced to invoke the 14th Amendment and it gets throw into the lap of the hack MAGA judges who want to destroy America so we become an autocratic white Christian ethnostate.

Then, in turn, once all that is figured out, MAGA House Republicans will strike — they will impeach Biden for “abuse of power” and that’s what we’ll be focused on for the next few months while we suffer through a severe global recession o a par with the Great Recession.

Now, obviously, having such a horrific economic situation ahead of us definitely would focus the mind of pols in Washington. But I think because MAGA Republicans are so tyrannical and politically bloodthirsty that they will lulz everything because a default will help them transition the US into an autocratic white Christian ethnostate.

So, there you go.

We’re fucked.

Or not.

I suppose it’s possible we’ll somehow muddle through yet again, but I have my doubts.

Would The Indictment Of Trump For Espionage Be A ‘Disruptive Event?’

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

Let me be clear — I think much like the late Roman Empire, America has given itself over to the macro forces of history. We’ve just given up and there just doesn’t seem to be any way to avoid our inevitable transition into an illiberal democracy.

In fact, between now and spring 2025, our choice will be rather stark — autocracy or civil war.

So, I don’t really give much credence to the idea that anything — ANYTHING — can stop Trump from being 2024 Republican nominee and probably the next POTUS. In short, we’re fucking doomed. And, yet, for some reason, 50 Senators have, according to CBS News, been given satellite phones because of the fear of “a disruptive event.”

Just like how the paranoid Right spent 30 years mulling what James Baker was going to say in the “New World Order” speech that he never gave, it’s possible that the same people are going to spend the next 20 years worried about a “disruptive event” that never comes.

But it does seem that Trump might — MIGHT — be on the cusp of being indicted for a number of Big Boy Crimes, amongst them being espionage. I just don’t see that as rising to the status of a “disruptive event,” however, because everything is so baked into the cake with Trump that even if he, I don’t know, ate someone live on TV, he would still be 60,000 voters in five swing states away from being president.

That’s how much America has collectively given the fuck up.

It definitely will be interesting to see Trump running for POTUS between now and Election Day 2024 having been indicted for espionage of all things. Jesus Christ.

But, here we are.

The Political Implications of America’s Looming Default

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

Here are, in no particular order, the political consequences of the United States defaulting.

Trump Will Probably Win In 2024
A default would hand Trump an economic gimmie on a massive scale. Unless something none of us could possibly predict, America defaulting all but assures a second Trump Administration. In short — we’re totally, completely fucked. I still believe that Trump, in the end, will be something of a transitional figure with his MAGA Nazi successor being the person who finally consolidates power and turns us into a Hungary-like illiberal democracy.

Probability of Revolution / Civil War Grows Greatly
By definition, a default would not only totally scramble the world economy — maybe causing the Second Great Recession — but would also destabilize the United States to the point that when the 2024 election rolls around, we either have a civil war (Reds leaving the Union) or a revolution (Blues overthrowing the Red Nazi autocratic state.) Regardless, it’s going to be fucked. It’s going to be horrible and there’s a real chance that WW3 will happen while the United States is too busying imploding to keep an eye on global hotspots.

UBI Becomes Closer To Reality
A severe recession would give companies the cover they needed to use AI to replace many, many, MANY jobs, to the point that it’s even possible that implementing some sort of UBI will be a major campaign issue of the 2024 presidential cycle. It’s possible that it will become clear to everyone that AI is going to end most jobs and the government is going to have to step in. If nothing else, AI’s impact on the economy and society could be far bigger than any of us imagine when it comes to the political landscape of 2024.

Biden’s (First?) Impeachment
MAGA Republicans in the House are already itching for an excuse to impeach Biden and WHATEVER he does in the context of a default that doesn’t involve screwing over the Poors will be enough for House Republicans to ram through an impeachment. It’s a testament to how dumb and ill-focused House Republicans are that they haven’t managed to come up with an excuse to impeach Biden, even though their base obviously wants it really bad.