Tag: Autocrats Never Lose

Contemplating Becoming a Domestic Political Refugee In Late 2024, Early 2025

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

I can not predict the future. No one can. But all signs point to either the United States becoming a MAGA-themed autocracy starting in early 2025, or the entire country going tits up because of either a civil war (Reds) or a revolution (Blues.) As such, I find myself contemplating what I am going to do if I simply can not live in my rural MAGA-loving area anymore.

But, first, I have to think about what might cause me to actually leave my home in the first place. The thing about Virginia is, it’s two states — one Red, one Blue — fused together who fucking hate each other. As such, I can totally imagine a scenario whereby Virginia is one of the first states to implode into severe intra-state political violence if there is any sort of National Divorce or Blue Revolution.

Give my nature, I suppose I will wait until it’s clear that people around me know that my politics don’t fit the vibe of the area and I get the sense that maybe I should flee. But it would have to be real. It couldn’t just be some vague, abstract sense of unease.

I have long believed that if the End of the World came, I would either be the first person to die or the person who helped bring back civilization. So, lulz, it could be that I just open my front door one day in late 2024, early 2025 and I get shot in the face.

But who knows. I guess if things get too hot for me I will grab some essential in a bug out bag and head north one way or another. I have a well-meaning relative who wants to hide out in the woods, but he’s south of me and that sounds rather fatalistic. Once states begin to leave the Union, the the force of the State will be involved in things and it makes no sense to stick around.

I have some relatives in Richmond, so I guess I’ll drive in that direction? But that’s an iffy situation if things really are collapsing, so I may just using whatever infrastructure has developed to facilitate Blues in Virginia getting to safety in Maryland and beyond and use that.

No Good Will Come Of MAGA Republican Blood Libel Against Abortion Rights

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

One sign that we are totally fucked in 2024 is the absolute insistence on the part of people like malignant ding-dong Trump that the center-Left wants to murder babies. This is not true. Everyone knows it’s not ture, and, yet, here we are with millions of rabid MAGA people wilfully believing this awful blood libel because of confirmation bias.

The Nazis never met a blood libel against the Jews they didn’t like and if you stir in some dumb Qanon ideas into the mix of what MAGA is up to, well, that’s a tragedy that writes itself.

It’s all part of a surge in some tectonic forces that are tearing the United States apart. I will again state that if the absolute worst happens in the United States, be in civil war (Reds) or revolution (Blues) it will be the single biggest geopolitical even in real terms since the French Revolution.

Everything will be different once everything is sorted out. Either America will be all MAGA, divided or all Blue. No matter what the outcome, there will be MILLIONS of American who will flee the re-imagined area of the United States, which will spread America ideas across the globe.

What’s more, the likelihood of World War Three increases significantly in late 2024, early 2025. The moment the United States is too distracted because it’s imploding is also the moment that a number of simmering hotspots across the globe will explode into violence — some of it nuclear tipped.

And MAGA’s Blood Libel against, well, people like me, is the tip of the spear of some potentially astonishing geopolitical events. There are any number of pretty fucking dark scenarios to contemplate if we don’t manage to just punt things down the road another four years.

I just don’t know what to expect. I just can’t predict the future. But things like the MAGA Blood Libel against people who support abortion rights is extremely alarming!

American Killing Fields? I’m Worried About Blue Cities In Red States Should A Second American Civil War Happen

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

One thing I’ve noticed is a certain level of clueless, oblivious naivete on the part of some people who should know better when it comes to what a Second American Civil War might be like.

I’m working on the assumption that if there is an actual 2ACW, it will be because Trump loses in 2024 and, in a desperate attempt to evade prison and starts to rant about the need for a National Divorce and, lo and behold, states like Texas take him up on the idea.

There is a far small chance of a Blue “Resistance Revolution” if Trump wins and is incoming agenda is just too radical for Blues, but I have serious doubts that Blues, by nature, would have it in them to do such a thing.

But the issue is that any National Divorce would lead to a 2ACW because of how Purple the country is, in general. A lot of Red States have a dollop of Blue in them in the guise of their major cities. As such, if a state like Texas or Tennessee secedes, their Blue Cities will probably be the site of some serious fucking flashpoints.

There is a real risk that America will go all Cambodia on itself, with the rural areas of the country rising up and emptying the cities to establish American Killing Fields. Or something, something gruesome like that.

Way too many members of the nattering nabobs of negativism have STILL yet to come to grips with how dark our future is. American politics are collapsing before our very eyes and once we finally reach the Singularity — we’re probably going to fight it out in the real world with real weapons, instead of just being fucking keyboard warriors.

And, remember, once you crack the egg of civil war or revolution, things usually get out of control –just as the French. Once MAGA finally goes septic, loudmouth cranks like me will be right behind Jewish people when it comes to being packed up and sent to a weaponized ICE camps.

The main thing to remember is the United States is a lot less stable, in general, than we would like to think. It definitely seems as though 2024 will be the most significant election in American history since 1860. The only thing that spared us the symmetry of 2020 being it is, well, Mike Pence decided to destroy his political career by doing what he was supposed to.

But the issue remains –we are careening towards a potentially catastrophic near future. I, of course, can’t predict the future, so there is always a chance that some how, some way, we’ll do what we did in 2020 and find some sort of “third way” that allows us to punt our severe structural problems down the road another four years.

I just don’t know. They say you go bankrupt gradually, then all at once, so it could be one of those things where we just don’t know what is going to happen…until it happen.

Imagining a SNL ‘Unfrozen Caveman Governor’ Sketch

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

It is self-evident how much Ron DeSantis looks like the late Phil Hartman’s classic character Unfrozen Caveman Lawyer. This, of course, gets me thinking about how SNL might bring back the character this fall (whenever the writers’ and actors’ strikes end.)

You open with the same opening as the original sketch, only it instead of him being a lawyer, he’s governor of Florida. You have him making a campaign speech where he talks about the “woke mind virus” and how it’s as powerful as the mastodons he had to hunt 10,000 years ago. Or something, something like that.

I would really lean into the idea that he’s “caveman conservative” and that reflects in his policy ideas. Extra points if you can somehow shoehorn those type of ideas into what DeSantis actually believes.

The inciting incident of the sketch would be him ending his speech and him walking around talking to different people. One of them might be Donald Trump and they trade barbs or something.

Another way you might do it is as a recorded campaign ad whereby Unfrozen Caveman Lawyer goes through the benefits of having a president that was born 10,000 years ago.

Biden’s Impeachment As ‘Benghazi 2.0’ — The Lead Up To Autocracy or Civil War Starting In Late 2024, Early 2025

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

The whole point of the Biden “impeach inquiry” on the part of House Republicans (and Trump) is simply to create some for of false moral equivalence between Biden and Trump on election day. Either people will not vote or the calculous they use to vote will be so fucked up from a shame impeachment of Biden that Trump wins.

We have to begin to accept that we’re careening towards the most decisive presidential election in American history since 1860. At the moment, barring something none of us can predict, Trump is going to win in 2024 — or we have a civil war.

There is, of course, a very small chance that we might have a “Blue Revolution” if Trump wins, but I doubt it. Smug Twitter Liberals already have one foot out the door with second passports, so lulz, they’re going to be too busy relocating to the south of France to help Poors like us.

Eat the rich.

Anyway, as I keep saying, you go bankrupt gradually then all at once. And I think that’s exactly what’s going to happen to the United States. Once Trump is president again, America is going to have a very Germany 1933 vibe to it. I don’t think there’s going to be anything stopping MAGA’s consolidation of power in 2025 if Trump wins.

That will be that. Trump will be the transitional figure between us being in an anocracy and an autocracy. America will leave NATO and South Korea and the entire post-WW2 global order will be thrown up in the air. Russia will win its war of aggression against Ukraine and the already existent ICE camp infrastructure will be weaponized.

In 20 years — or less– Americans will wake up and wonder why we’re invading Canada to save it from “the woke mind virus.”

If Trump doesn’t win, meanwhile, we have a civil war. Or come close to one. The deep echo of the first civil war is alive and well in the South and, as such Texas will leave the Union and that will set off a cascading series of events with no obvious endgame.

And, of course, there will probably be WW3 as all of that is happening.

Good luck. You’ll need it.

The Extremely Dumb Rationale Behind The House Republicans ‘Impeachment Inquiry’ of Biden

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

Any discussion of what’s going on with House Republicans being hell bent to simply be able to use the word “impeachment” a lot when it comes to Biden has to first remember how the first impeachment in American history went down. As I recall, Radical Republicans were so angry at Andrew Johnson that they impeached him without even knowing why they they were doing it.

They just wrote in the articles later.

So, here we are, with it seeming as though the United States is either going to turn into a MAGA-themed autocracy, or have some sort of secessionist crisis at some point in the near future. At the moment, it definitely seems as though late 2024, early 2025 is going to be a crucial moment in American history, where we decide our form of government for generations to come.

Anyway, it seems as though in some respects, the “impeachment inquiry” against Biden is happening for several reasons. One reason is sheer spite — House Republicans want to strike back at Biden for Trump being a criminal. They also want to both scream at the top of their lungs that Biden is being impeached and thus can’t be re-elected while at the same time poo-pooing the idea that Trump has been impeached twice.

“It happens to every president these days,” is what they want people to think.

Also, remember, this is white knuckled power politics. House Republicans simply want cover for using the word “impeachment” on Fox News, in hopes that all that white noise bullshit will lodge itself into the minds of low information voters in five swing states and be 2024’s “Benghazi.” At the moment, they don’t even have the votes to actually launch an impeachment inquiry, much less actually impeach Biden.

But, lulz, they’re going to do it anyway because they can say “the only way we can find the truth is with an impeachment inquiry.” It’s a similar logic to how Republicans vote against popular programs, then take the credit for them when they are implemented in their districts.

It’s a win-win: they get to tell Red voters that they voted against big government spending and they get to take credit for popular programs in the minds of Blues and independents.

I do find it curious that Republicans are so dumb and ill-focused that they didn’t decide to impeach Biden for the “border crisis” or any number of actual problems in the country, rather than nebulous bullshit involving Biden and his son. It’s all very strange to me.

But, regardless, we have to accept that what’s going on in the House is ping for a not-so-distant future where we either are no longer a democracy, or our political system finally collapses into real world political violence. I hate violence, but I would suggest you get ready.

MTG Keeps Proving My Theory Of The Case About The Nature Of A Second American Civil War Starting In Late 2024, Early 2025

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

I can’t predict the future, but I have for years now written about how I believe if there is an actual civil war, it won’t be some sort of mass freak out by AR-15 toting MAGA morons. It’s going to be a proper old school civil war with a secession crisis and the whole she-bang.

Just look at this tweet by Marjorie Taylor Greene:

The above words definitely seem to indicate that Republicans have secession on the brain if they don’t get what they want. And I still think that if there is a Secession Crisis in late 2024, early 2025 because Trump loses that Texas will be the first state to call up a secessionist convention.

Though I suppose it’s possible that Texas might defer to South Carolina out of a sense of historical symmetry. Of course, given the large African American population in South Carolina secession MIGHT be a hard sell in that state, even though apparently most of the Republicans in that state think “the South Shall Rise Again.”

But we’re still too far out — I just don’t know the specifics of any so-called “Fourth Turning.” The issue I just can’t predict is how serious Republicans are about leave the Union in a National Divorce if Trump doesn’t win. It could be all talk, even if Trump is going to be ranting at the top of his lungs that there should be a National Divorce so he doesn’t have to go to prison.

All I can tell you is — any National Divorce or subsequent 2ACW is going to be very, very, very messy and will probably prompt World War 3 while it’s at it. Hold on tight, things might be bumpy starting in late 2024, early 2025.

Republicans Painting Democrats as ‘Baby Killers’ May Lead To Severe, Dark Consequences

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

Something very alarming is beginning to become a mainstream tenant of faith for Republicans — the idea that Democrats are “baby killers.” Republicans probably are doing this at the moment just because it’s a convenient way to juice the base and appeal to low information voters, but long term, oh fucking boy.

The notion that Democrats as a group advocate murdering babies is just the type of dehumanizing tactic that might lead to God-only-knows-what at some point in the future. It’s very similar, of course, to the Blood Libel that the Nazis committed against the Jews.

Do I think things might get that bad? I guess…not? I just don’t know. I can’t game things out that much. But it’s definitely a “Not great, Bob,” type of situation when you have a major political party in a failing democracy accusing the membership of its rivals of something so heinous.

My fear is, of course, that MAGA will go septic and the next thing you know, MAGA Republicans will be in power again and they’ll start rounding up center-Left people in the name of “saving babies.”

Shiver. What a dark and tragically possible future.

It’s Definitely Looking Like My So-Called ‘Hysterical Doom Shit’ About Our Fate Might Not Be So Far Off

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

You have to admire “Mueller, She Wrote.” The proprietors of that account think that all of our political problems will be magically solved because of this or that court case. Somehow, using rainbows and unicorn farts, Trump and MAGA will fade away because someone swoops in an “saves” us.

Fuck that — we are so fucking screwed.

I can’t predict the future, of course, so it’s very possible that something might happen between now and late 2024, early 2025 that makes a “third way” viable. But I’m not going to fucking hold my breath. If it happens, it’s not going to be because someone “saved” us — it will be because of something totally unpredictable and totally out of our control.

As it stands, either we slide peacefully into autocracy as a result of Trump winning in 2024, or we have a massive fucking civil war domestically and a world war internationally. The world is primed and ready for Something Bad to happen a lot sooner than you might think.

I mean, we fucking have MAGA people running around with “Trump or Death” flags just as fucking Nazis are also walking around. If that isn’t an indication that we’re in a bumpy political ride in the near term, I don’t know what does. We have to stop thinking that either our law or a politics function like they used to.

We have to begin to prepare for the absolute fucking worst — be it autocracy or civil war / revolution. It’s a hard pill to swallow, but it is a very cold, hard reality. No one is going to save us. Get ready.

Qanon’s Fixation On Tom Hanks Is Totally Fucking Bonkers

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

Tom Hanks is not perfect. He’s human like all of us, and, yet, apparently in the minds of the fucking Qanon cocksuckers, he’s some sort of evil villian, lurking in the shadows. My current theory as to why this is goes like this — given Hanks’ all-American persona, the freaks of Qanon think that if they can get you to think the worst of him, they can convince you of anything else.

Like I said — Hanks isn’t perfect.

He’s apparently had a long-running affair with a much-younger woman, or something like that. But, in general, what I understand about him is he does pretty much live up to his persona. As much as anyone could be expect to, at least.

Anyway. I don’t think we really take the fucking Qanon bullshit threat seriously enough. Those fuckers are growing in power and if we’re not careful, they’re going to fucking go septic and a lot of innocent people will endup in campus. The fact that I might be among them has not escaped my attention. Even though, of course, we all know that Qanon is just warmed over old school anti-semitism

It definitely will be interesting to see how things play out with Qanon between now and late 2024, early 2025..