Tag: Autocrats Never Lose

We Live In A ‘Wrong & Strong’ Era

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

This is a problem that I don’t know how to fix — we live in an era whereby people often have some very ill-conceived hot takes that they’re willing to fight to the death to defend.

It’s even to make just existing a real struggle. I can’t seem to go a day without someone pretty much just spouting bullshit, but bullshit in such a strident way that it makes you question your sanity.

While MAGA is the biggest example of this, the Left is not immune. I’ve come across some pretty batshit insane Leftist views. And don’t get me started on all the bullshit writing advice that I’ve had to endure the last few years. UGH. It’s enraging.

But, in a way, what’s worse is when the polity we’re supposed to have collapses because some pretty basic issues are so loaded that no one is willing to talk about them. The two sides views on everything from abortion to guns to global climate change are now so absolute and unchanging that it’s best not to even mention them if you don’t want a screaming match to break out.

I know from my own personal life that my MAGA-friendly relatives — whom I love dearly — pretty much have stopped talking to me about politics these days because I simply review to toe the fucking MAGA line.

UGH.

Anyway, fucking late 2024, early 2025 could be so fucking insane that few, if any of us, get out alive.

I Can’t Predict The Future, But I Am…Worried About America’s Political Future

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

I continue to grow more and more alarmed about what may happen in late 2024, early 2025. I say this because I just can see any sort of “third way” like what happened in 2020.

This is it — in 2024, we either slip peacefully into a MAGA-themed autocracy or we have a civil war (Reds) or revolution (Blues.) I definitely don’t want any of these scenarios to happen — I just want to punt things down the road again –but that just doesn’t seem a viable option.

In fact, if anything, the MAGA Right continues to make it clear, time and again, that we could spend all this energy to defeat Trump, only to have him turn around and demand a civil war so he, personally, can avoid prison.

That’s the element to all of this that way too many well-meaning Blues miss. They think that by just defeating Trump at the polls that everything will be ok for another four years, when, in fact, we just find ourselves facing the prospect of a “National Divorce.”

There remains one thing I can’t game out — how much of all this talk of violence on the part of MAGA and how much if it is real? I think, in a sense, we’re asking the wrong question. I don’t think on an individual basis that MAGA idiots have it in them to run around shooting people (thank God.)

But I do think that on a institutional basis that MAGA Republican state legislatures *DO* have it in them to call up Secessionist Conventions if Trump loses in 2024 — probably starting with Texas and then going to South Carolina.

Anyway, pray, is all I gotta say. Pray that I’m wrong and somehow we aren’t careening towards a catastrophe, even though it looks like we are at the moment.

Lazy Observations About Vivek Ramaswamy’s Talking Points

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

I still find it curious that Vivek Ramaswamy hasn’t managed to gain significant popularity in the polls, since he makes all the right people angry. And, yet, here we are. Trump is just as popular as ever and Vivek continues to poll in the single digits.

Here are some very lazy observations about his talking points — I’ve done no research and I’m just doing it off the top of my head.

The most notable talking point to me is how Vivek never misses an opportunity to slip in a reference to a National Divorce. I think this gives us a pretty good sense of the audience he’s trying to reach. He is scooping up the fears and concerns of the far far Right and trying to validate them in an effort to pry some of them off of Trump.

All this talk about a National Divorce — no matter how chipper he may be as he says it — has only managed to make people like me more concerned about what will happen if malignant ding-dong Trump manages to lose the 2024 election. I can’t predict the future, but it definitely seems as though there is simply no way to avoid a massive, historic political event of some sort involving the 2024 presidential election.

Meanwhile, the other thing I hear a lot from Vivek is always pivoting to “the future” whenever some stupid thing that Trump comes up in conversation. I get what he’s trying to do. Not only does it allow him to dodge questions about the past, it gives him a bright, sunny “Morning Again In America” type vibe, even if it’s from a fucking fascist POV.

Lastly, the other issue he keeps blathering about is not only raising the voting age to 25, but requiring young people to take a civics test to vote. Not only is this fascist, but it’s also ironic given that Vivek has repeatedly shown that HE can’t pass basic American civics.

Anyway. We’re fucked. Good luck!

An Astonishing Number Of People Will Have To Die Each Day During The Next Pandemic For Us To Have The Political Will To Do Anything About It

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

I can tell you from what the conservatives in my family — whom I love dearly — have told me that a massive number of people will have to start dying each day for any sort of political response to a new pandemic to happen. It could be as high as 10,000 people a day before we can get our act together.

I don’t know, it might even be more — 20,000? 30,000? 50,000?

There is now a strict orthodoxy within traditional conservative ranks that under no circumstances can there ever be any sort of lockdown or restricts imposed because of a health emergency.

So, things will have to grow rather apocalyptic before there is any collective action when we have the next pandemic. I have this on my mind at the moment because I’m growing nervous that this fall and winter might be really bad in regards to COVID.

At the moment, it definitely seems as though, lulz, we’re just going to let people die needlessly, no matter how bad things get this COVID season. Ugh. Everything is so dumb.

America May Destroy Itself Over ‘Vibes’

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

It’s clear from talking to my conservative relatives that the thing at very absolute forefront of their minds isn’t policy — it’s vibes. They usually don’t know why they’re angry, just that they are. This “vibe” anger is so potent that most of the country thinks we’re in a recession when we are not, in fact, in a recession.

As such, I don’t know how much credence I give to people who think that we can only have a civil war / revolution if there is some sort of economic element to it. Even though abortion is definitely an economic issue, I think civil war (Reds) / revolution (Blues) could happen just because of vibes.

This “vibe” civil war / revolution we’re careening towards appears in all sorts of ways. One conspicuous way this expresses itself is when MAGA people online say the most ridiculous things about Trump — things they do not, in fact, believe — just so they can “own the libs” and do some virtue signalling to their fellow MAGA cult members.

So dumb.
This particular dumb technique on the part of MAGA cocksuckers really has become rather absurd. It’s totally bonkers and dumb. It’s one of those things, though, that makes me very uneasy.

Given a few more months to marinate and the passions of a presidential election, it definitely seems as though “vibes” will be enough to ultimately destroy the United States — or at least put in it a very precarious position while we figure out if we’re going to become a MAGA autocracy or a have a civil war / revolution.

A Populist Recipe For Disaster

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

I continue to grow alarmed with how otherwise normal, sane people have bought into the populist bullshit that ding-dong Trump keeps pushing. A growing number of people have serious misgivings about the honesty of “the elites” to the point that they are willing to vote for a fucking fascist like Trump.

It definitely seems as though we’re careening towards a very, very, very dark situation in late 2024, early 2025. Of course, there is always a possibility that we’ll find some sort of “third way” or off ramp before things get as bad as I fear, but, lulz, I doubt it.

Some severe macro forces are a play at the moment. While I still believe The Fourth Turning is nothing more than astrology for dudes, I do think the idea that some sort of catastrophic event may occur around 2025 has some merit to it. All signs point to a massive clusterfuck in late 2024, early 2025 because we just can’t keep punting our problems down the road any more.

It’s officially put up or shut up time.

Any major change in America’s political system will cause a series of cascading events that will probably lead to WW3. It doesn’t matter if we turn into an inward looking autocracy of blood and soil or if we have some sort of civil war / revolution — if the United States is distracted, then the entire post WW2 global order will be at risk.

There doesn’t seem to be any way to stop it all. We just have to prepare for something dramatic to happen in less than two years. Whatever it is that happens, I think will mark the end of the silly “woke” era that we’ve been living in. It’s difficult to get too up set over the misuse of pronouns when you’re hiding from ICE agents or dodging missiles.

But we’ll see, I suppose.

Vivek Ramaswamy Has A Donald Trump Problem

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

Well, I obviously don’t understand the Republican MAGA base as well as I thought I did. It seemed to me that “Vivek The Fake” had successfully positioned himself after the first debate to rocket into second place.

Whoopse!

As far as I can tell, there really hasn’t been any change in the standings. Everyone remains about 40 points behind malignant ding-dong Trump. This does not bode well for the country going forward. The Trump cult of personality is so absolute that not even dangling a younger, more organized Trump replacement that makes all the right people angry is enough to cause the MAGA base to give up on Trump.

So, at least at the moment, it seems that it’s going to be Trump V. Biden 2.0 in 2024, for better or worse.

Something Big would have to happen to change that, something so big and unexpected that it would be historic in its magnitude. At the moment, it seems as though the political forces are locked in and there’s no going back. Trump will be the 2024 Republican nominee and either we have a civil war when he loses or we slide peacefully into autocracy when he wins. (Even though I talk lot about it, I just don’t think Blues have it in them to do any sort of Resistance Revolution if Trump wins in 2024.)

Anyway.

We’ll see I guess. But I will again say that late 2024, early 2025 is shaping up to be the most monetu span of time since between Election Day 1860 and Lincoln’s swearing in in 1861.

Buckle up.

The Curse of Tippecanoe Is Making Me Nervous

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

I generally am not a superstitious person — or at least like to think so. And, yet, given how fucking old Joe Biden is, I find myself worrying about the Curse of Tippecanoe.

What’s more, the moment the 2024 presidential ballots are printed, the American political system will be at its weakest until the election is certified, and maybe even until the president is sworn in.

All of this is really alarming with ding-dong Trump being neck-and-neck with Biden in the polls at the moment.

All of this is happening at the same time. We have fucking Nazi MAGA fascists who want to turn the United States into a Russia clone, just as we have a very, very old president and a very, very untested veep. Even a casual glance at history will tell you that usually nothing changes for decades and then WHAM, everything changes virtually overnight.

So we’ve kind of entered the danger zone already. Anything big that happens to change the political equation for 2024 could have far more massive consequences than we could possibly imagine.

It’s The Culture Wars, Stupid

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

Back in the 1990s, Bill Clinton’s team was famous for saying, “It’s The Economy, Stupid.” Well, lulz, these days, we can’t even agree if the economy is doing well, even when the facts indicate that it is, in fact, doing well. We’re so divided that MAGA Republicans want to will us into a recession because of “vibes.”

This is why someone who might otherwise stand out, like Nikki Haley, can’t get any traction. She came out swinging at the most recent debate, basing her campaign on such quaint issues like “spending.”

No one — especially MAGA Republicans — give a shit about “spending” when there are libs to be owned.

The absolute core, the central tenant of MAGA is owning the libs. MAGA just does not give a fuck about any policy agenda at all other than strangling the “woke cancel culture mob.” MAGA lives in a post-truth, post-policy universe. And, what’s more, the whole thing is a cult of personality around Trump so good luck managing to pry any support away from the malignant ding-dong that is Donald Trump.

The closer we get to the 2024 election, the more my so-called “hysterical doom shit” doesn’t seem so far off. The die is cast, the lines are drawn. There is no center and, baring some “third way” I simply can’t predict at the moment, we’re either going to slide peacefully into autocracy, or we’re going to have a civil war (Reds) or revolution (Blues.)

But I can’t predict the future. So, lulz, anything is possible. Yet I am very worried. Election 2024 is shaping up to potentially be the most historic election since 1860. Republicans, by definition, are fascists and want to establish an autocracy.

If they don’t get that, then they may start a civil war. And if they do get it, there’s a minor possibility that Blues will do some sort of “Resistance Revolution.”

I hate violence, so I want none of it, but it’s definitely something to think about.

I Just Wish MAGA Republicans Would Be Honest

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

It is clear that in late 2024, early 2025, America will find itself at a crossroads. While I suppose it’s possible that we may somehow manage to find a “third way’ whereby we punt our problems down the road another four years, I will be flabbergasted if that actually happens.

What is more likely to happen is we slide into a MAGA themed autocracy, or we have a civil war (Reds) or a revolution (Blues.) It is clear that the next Republican president the United States has — no matter who it might be — is going to be a fucking fascist.

The MAGA has gone septic within the Republican Party to the point that the moment Republicans control the presidency again, that’s it — we’re going to have to make a decision one way or another as to what is going to happen to America. Are we going to become a white Christian ethno state or not? Are we going to have a complete and total ban on not just abortion, but any form of birth control or not? That’s just the beginning of a litany of extreme policies that are now MAGA Republican orthodoxy.

What will be interesting to see is if our new MAGA autocrat fucks with freedom of speech or if he / she is smart enough to wait a few years for the MAGA consolidation to take effect to move on something so important to Americans. Trump, despite everything, is still too stupid and lazy to actually implement a lot of his fascist dreams.

So, it’s probably going to be his immediate Republican successor who gets to play Augustus Caesar.

I do think, however, that Trump’s incoming agenda during his second term will be so radical that there will be a lot of talk within Blue ranks about some sort of “Resistance Revolution.” But Blues have a far different collective temperament than Reds and I think, in the end, about 1 million smug, wealthy Twitter liberals will leave the country, leaving us Poors to fend for ourselves.

Enjoy this peace before the storm, is all I gotta say. Late 2024, early 2025 is going to be fucking lit.