I look back upon American history and it seems to me we live in the Second American Republic. It was founded upon the death of Lincoln in 1865. But now, we come to another moment in time when either we slide into the ditch of autocracy or find some sort of rebirth.
And it could definitely go either way at the moment.
The key issue, that people too often ignore, is even if we defeat Trump in the general election, there is a good chance that he will unto himself, will spark a civil war. Trump has a vested interest in a civil war because he will see it being his get out of jail card.
That’s the thing that people continue to assume that if they can just defeat Trump that somehow magically everything will be fixed. I’m really nervous that we might somehow defeat Trump, only to have to go through a secession crisis.
So, in general, 2024 is going to be a shit show.
I can’t predict the future, so I suppose it’s possible that we might find some magical, mystery “third way” that will allow us to punt our problems down the road another four years.
Every once in a while, I run into some earnest liberal on Twitter who gets upset when I drolly say that we need to “manage our expectations” for 2024. They get really excited and say that only “WORK” will defeat MAGA.
And, in general, I agree with this sentiment.
But what I mean by “manage our expectations” is we have to accept that when it comes to Trump becoming POTUS again no amount of WORK on an individual basis means jackshit. Yeah, it makes you feel better, but the die is cast — it’s autocracy or civil war (Reds) / revolution (Blues) starting in late 2024, early 2025.
We have to start figuring out what we’re going to do when the time comes. Even if all your WORK manages to single-handedly stop Trump from winning in 2024, there is a pretty good change that that, unto itself, could spark Trump to start a civil war.
Then what are you going to do?
That’s what I mean by the era of hope is over and the era of preperation has begun. We all need to do a gut check. We all need to figure out if we’re going to stay and fight or leave the country if necessary. America right now has very late Roman Republic vibes.
America is at the crossroads and either we establish a Third Republic from the ashes of the Second, or we just give up and turn into a Russian-style autocracy. At the moment, I still don’t know which path we’re going to take.
But what I do know is everyone has to pick a side — or a side will be chosen for you.
We continue to underestimate how potent the forces of fascism have become within the Republican Party. They are so bad at the moment that by the time Election Day 2024 rolls around, we will enter put up or shut up days. It is clear that Republicans now only see an election as valid if they win, so if they don’t win, there is a real risk of civil war.
The issue with Vivek Ramaswamy is he gives Republicans what they want — he’s all personality and he makes people like me angry. So, he’s perfect. We are in a post-truth era — especially when it comes to Republicans — so, lulz, as long as someone like Ramaswamy conforms to the “truthiness” that Republicans demand, he’s going to be a success.
Republicans’ white-hot need to “own the libs” is so all powerful that they are willing to ditch everything — especially any connection to reality — in order to get the lib owning they crave. So it doesn’t really matter to Republicans if Ramaswamy has no idea what he’s talking about — he owns the libs.
I just don’t think we appreciate how dire things are, how absolutely cataclysmic late 2024, early 2025 are shaping up to be. The entire Republican Party has been so consumed by the MAGA cancer that if it’s not Trump, then it’s probably going to be Ramaswamy that they turn to. Republicans want a white Christian ethnostate so badly that they’re even willing to turn to a Hindu to make it a reality.
History does, you know, usually take the most ironic course possible.
Anyway, there are macro trends at work that are beyond our control. There are a few major unexpected things that might happen to divert the possible catastrophe of late 2024, early 2025, but, in general, either we turn into a MAGA themed autocracy or we have a civil war.
I just don’t think Blues have it in them to have any sort of “Resistance Revolution” if Trump wins. The people who would be the leadership of such thing will be too busy flee the country to help us Poors out.
We’re now in an era where the America Right is so untethered from reality that not just reality but any sense of propriety that they are willing to say fucking anything in furtherance of their bonkers cause. The most recent example of this is Newt Gingrich saying that abortion rights advocates want to murder infants.
Suggesting such a thing is ridiculous in the extreme, and, yet, here we are. They keep blathering on about such something that simply is not true because it “feels true” to them. The Right is so consumed with their hatred of the “woke cancel culture mob” that they are willing to believe anything, say anything because it “feels” true.
This is very similar to the Christian persecution porn that occasionally pops up when some Christian claims they were accosted for praying in public. Even though this never fucking happens, the Christians in my life act like they “feel” like it could be true.
This is very disturbing for a number of reasons. It seems to me that it’s a short jaunt from proposing that liberals want to murder infants to accepting the Qanon conspiracies surrounding Hollywood stars.
Such bullshit from people like Gingrich is part of a broader macro trend on the part of the American Right to dehumanize the center-Left to the point that when the time comes, some pretty dark things may happen. It definitely seems within reason that either we slip peacefully into MAGA autocracy when Trump wins in 2024 and ICE starts murdering people like me or Trump loses and we have a National Divorce and civil war.
Or, put another way, a lot of macro trends look like they’re coming to a head in late 2024, early 2025, one way or another. We can’t keep punting all our problems down the road. We’ve reached the “put up or shut up” stage for both sides of the political equation.
Either Trump wins and Blues have to figure out if they’re going to do anything about it, or Trump loses and Reds have to figure out if they’re prepared to continue to stay in America since they don’t believe they can get a “fair shake” anymore.
But I am wrong all the time. I suppose it’s a least possible that somehow, someway we will, in fact, do a Third Way like we did in 2020. I have my doubts about that possibility, but I can’t predict the future.
For a political movement that accuses anyone who disagrees with them “snowflakes,” MAGA sure can be a bunch of fucking crybabies. There latest reason to pout is, apparently, the refusal of Netflix and Amazon to stream the Qanon-ish movie “Sound of Freedom.”
Now, I’m the first to admit that the movie deals with a serious topic and deserves to be seen. And, YET, the REASON why the movie is so successful is it taps into the Qanon belief that Hollywood is run by a bunch of baby eating satanists who traffic children.
I would compare it to how, when I was growing up, occasionally Playboy would have pictorials of supermodels. The models would pick the best fashion photographers in the world to do the spread and so they felt they were “artistic” while Playboy’s audience of dirty old men were just excited to see a naked supermodel.
The same goes with Sound of Freedom. You have a lot of people — mostly Christians — who are really concerned about child trafficking who have seen the movie and YET you also have a bunch of fucking MAGA Qanon fucktards who wack off to the movie because they believe in confirms what they already believe about Hollywood.
Of course, all of this plays into the general paranoia of MAGA. When people point out the obvious appeal of Sound of Freedom to Qanon jackasses, they get all worked up and talk about how the elites can’t handle the truth.
It seems clear to me that we have to take seriously the prospect of some sort of significant political event happening because of the 2024 presidential election. Whatever it is that happens could be the biggest domestic event in American history since 1860.
The Right is chomping at the bit to have some sort of excuse for political violence, while the Left is so busy fighting over pronouns as to be waiting for a sucker punch.
The key thing I’m worried about for the more immediate future is the prospect of severe political violence that would indicate that far worst things are in store for late 2024, early 2025. In fact, I would go so far as to say it has been, in general terms, eerily quiet on that front.
Not that I want any such thing to happen, but the Right can only freak the fuck out in rather absurd ways for only so long before some idiot decides to act on it. It’s possible that the convictions associated with the January 6 insurrection have given a lot of fascists pause for thought.
Maybe that’s what’s going on?
But I really worry that soon enough that will change and we may have some sort of co-ordinated political violence that would definitely make it clear that the country is in for serious trouble in late 2024, early 2025. Or not. Maybe I’m really over thinking things and, thankfully, we’ll somehow manage to muddle through like we have so many times in the past.
The issue with the term “woke” is it is so loaded now — and so defined by people who use it for whatever they need it to mean — that it’s really hard to pin down an exact meaning. In general, relative to my point of view, to be “woke” means you are a cultural Leftist who has such a ridged orthodoxy on certain issues that you would rather the United States become a MAGA fascist state than give centrists some wiggle room.
But that’s just me. I suppose in the minds of ambitious Republican politicians, “woke” is a nebulous catch-all of far Left agendas that scare your voters. But because being against the “woke cancel culture mob” polls well, you slather the term over anything — and I mean ANYTHING — that it in anyway seems “liberal.”
Because the term “liberal” has become so hated, so loaded within Republican ranks that you can’t use it at all for any reason. You can’t even use it to describe what the United States is — a liberal democracy.
There is no denying that younger generations have different social expectations that can leave old coots like me at a loss. And, yet, at least I’m willing to admit and acknowledge that just because I don’t understand what the youngins think, doesn’t mean it’s automatically wrong.
But the obsession with this or that thing being “woke” in the minds of MAGA Republicans is part of a broader macro problem — the political center no longer exists in the United States and the two sides are receding from each other at an astonishing rate.
Neither side understands the other and the MAGA Right seems determined to either establish a fascist state in the United States or force the issue of a National Divorce.
In the end, once things grow far more existential in nature, the very notion of this or that thing being “woke” will seem rather quaint.
Soon enough, one won’t be able to figure out the politics of someone wearing a shirt with Trump’s mugshot on it. Either you’re wearing it in support of Trump, or you’re wearing it ironically to remind people of its existence.
But Trump’s mugshot is yet another indication of how we’re rushing towards Something Bad in late 2024, early 2025 because it reminds us of how far apart the two sides are.
The key issue is, of course, who wins the 2024 election.
If Trump wins the 2024 election — as I believe he will — then, lulz, people like me will be so busy worrying about avoiding being sent to a weaponized ICE camp that we won’t really have much time to think about anything else. But if Trump somehow manages to lose — which I find farfetched — then there is a very real possibility of a civil war.
A lot of all of this rests on what the reaction of state Republican Parties. If Trump loses and begins to rant about the need for a National Divorce so he doesn’t go to prison, do they listen to him? Are we really so divided that that is even a possibility? The Right sure would like to have us think that is a possibility, but I dunno.
The idea that the wealthiest, most powerful nation in the world would implode over the fate of a ding-dong like Trump is a bit much. And, yet, here we are. Even during the recent Republican primary debate the notion of a “cold civil war” got slipped in a few times because it was a way to stroke the base.
But as I keep saying, they say you go bankrupt gradually, then all at once and we at least SEEM to be in the “gradually” part of that equation. The Right is beginning to believe that they can’t get a fair shake politically for their fascist Nazi views and because of the deep echo of the First Civil War in the minds of a lt of white Southerners, well, there you go.
The whole situation is fucked up. There are no easy answers. And for the time being, we just have to wait and see. Though, I have to say, whenever I find myself looking at content from the MAGA echo chamber, I’m not exactly encouraged that this Union can be saved if Trump loses in 2024.
Let me make one thing clear — I just don’t think Trump is going to lose in 2024. There are macro trends afoot that are going to make it damn near impossible to prevent Trump’s return in 2025.
As such, we need to begin to prepare for the fascist shit-show that will result starting in 2025. The people who would do something about our transition into a Russian-style autocracy — smug, wealthy Twitter liberals — will simply level the country en masse rather than risk their “lives and scared honors” do anything about the final destruction of American democracy.
But, just for “fun” let’s imagine what might happen if Trump manages to lose in 2024.
It definitely seems that Trump would have a vested interest in demanding a “National Divorce” if he lost in 2024. He doesn’t want to go to prison and he’s so stupid that he might begin to rant about the need for a “National Divorce” without realizing that Red States across the country would actually begin to take him up on the issue.
And it’s not going to be some sort of “MAGA revolution” where good olde boys run around shooting all the liberals they can find with their AR-15. It would be National Divorce done at a state level just like the first civil war. Because a lot of America is “purple” on the ground, there would be a massive amount of domestic political refugees as people began to vote with their feet when it became clear that you have to live in a state that fits your personal political views.
The Red States will begin to call up secessionist conventions and away we go. How all that would play out, I just don’t know. It really could go either way for a number of reasons. I do know not only would a lot of people die in the United States for no reason, but WW3 would probably happen as well once it became clear that the United States was too busy bombing itself to worry about keeping the global peace.
But all of that is rank speculation. It could be I’m way overthinking things. I could be that, lulz, we’ll somehow, magically, manage to punt our problems down the road another four years.
The American Left and Right continue recede from each other at an alarming rate. The Right is so consumed by the culture wars and “owning the libs” that they are oblivious to once were really big concerns for them. So, all the talk about how Trump added trillions to the national debt just don’t mean jack shit on a political basis.
And, of course, the Left doesn’t do itself any favors by fixating on the very things that alarm and enrage the Right (or, more specifically, the Centrists who win elections.) The Left screams at the top of their lungs about “protect trans kids” when, as far as I can tell, there aren’t really all that many trans kids to “protect.”
One thing that has to be noted is the thing that MAGA people love about Trump is he’s a fighter. He has no ideology other than ranting about, in the stupidest way possible — a pretty complex macro issue: a lot of white Christian (men) are enraged by what’s going on in America.
Trump’s “magic sauce” is he’s a fighter. White Christian (men) feel put upon for various reasons, disenfranchised and so they love the “idea” of Trump. They could care less about what he actually believes or does — hence they ignore all the trillions of dollars he added to the national debt.
Having said all that, it’s clear that Vivek Ramaswamy has figured out enough of Trump’s winning formula that I believe he is going to soon be the second place “placeholder” that will exist solely for the purpose of being the nominee should something happen to Trump to make no longer politically viable.
From the clips I’ve seen of Vivek, he seems like just the sort of guy that the MAGA base would love. He’s post-truth, makes people like me angry and alarmed and so there you go — Trump 2.0.
That’s the thing about Ron DeSantis — he totally misses the point of what attracts people to Trump. He thought that by running to the Right of Trump on culture war issues that he could at least by the guy the party turned to if something happened to the Dear Leader.
But DeSatanis is to weird, off-putting –and humorless — to pull it off. Vivek, at least, has a big goofy grin on his face all the time. And Vivek knows the MAGA base well enough to know that they just don’t care about issues. They see them as white noise.
All the MAGA base wants is to “own the libs.” They hate liberals so much that many of them can’t even use the word “liberal” for any fucking reason without getting fucking triggered.
This is a “not great” situation for a lot of reasons. But it’s the political world we live in at the moment and it’s only getting worse. The big unknown of all of this is, of course, how far things going to go? Are we going to reach a breaking point where we turn to political violence because our political system finally collapses?
That is a question I don’t have the answer to and worry about a lot. At the moment, it really could go either way. We could descend into civil war (Reds) / revolution (Blues) or we could simply slide peacefully into autocracy.
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