Tag: Autocrats Never Lose

A Key Difference Between MAGA And Everyone Else

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

In general, I’m a one-issue voter: I want to live in a functioning Western democracy. That’s it. I feel as though if we can simply establish that baseline on a national basis that the rest will take care of itself. Democracy is messy, but, in general, it does usually come up with political solutions that are the best for everyone.

I think of this fact when I see some stray piece of information about the center-Left that I can’t brook. I’m not in a fucking cult like MAGA cocksuckers, so I can step back and say, “I just don’t support that.”

This all goes back to my desire to live in a functioning Western democracy. There are so many issues that I totally agree with when it comes to the center-Left agenda, that I’m willing to hold my nose for the time being because I feel that if we can just return to having a functioning liberal democracy then rest will take care of itself.

And, I think, in general, that we have to accept that the real battle before us is simply to keep what’s left of our democracy viable. The fucking fascists know that if they can transition us into autocracy then, that’s it — they will get everything they want without an opposition at all.

I still get annoyed when I get attacked from my Left, though.

Vivek Ramaswamy is Officially Dangerous

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

Last night, Vivek Ramaswamy gave off serious Trump 2015 vibes and I think the MAGA base is going to eat it up. The thing about Vivek is he has managed to come up with a viable way to stake out a position as a placeholder, backup plan in case something happens to Trump and he can’t the Republican nominee.

The key issue is that Vivek has a very Trumpian vibe that DeSantis can’t pull off. As such, I suspect that Vivek is going to surge in the polls pretty quick to the point that I don’t know if DeSantis is even viable anymore.

The key issue is smug Twitter liberals don’t “get” what MAGA wants and so they totally miss that Vivek taps into the same populist rage that Trump has used to great success.

There is issue of race, of course. Given how fucking racist most of the MAGA base is, it does make you wonder if they can look past the fact that he’s not white and not Christian. And, yet, any study of history will tell you that generally history takes the most ironic path possible.

As such, yes, of course Vivek has a real possibility of being what DeSantis thought he was going to be — Trump without Trump. Vivek is young and smart and yet also gives the populist base all the fucking fascism they they expect in a presidential candidate.

Vivek seems well verse in all the paranoid, bizzaro talking points that the MAGA to the point that I just don’t see DeSantis being a viable candidate anymore. The key thing that seperates Vivek from DeSantis is Vivek has, well, some sort of personality. It may be grating, but at least it’s a personality.

DeSantis, meanwhile, just seems…there.

Anyway, I just don’t think we should underestimate the potential power of Vivek going forward. That’s my hot take for the moment, at least.

Crunch Time

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

It is clear that I have to stop drifting towards my goal of being a published author. I have to start setting cold, hard metrics that I have to meet on a regular basis. And it’s not just writing that would be involved — I have a small library of books in my To Be Read pile (I’m not joking).

I continue — for the time being — to be in something of an ideal situation when it comes to writing a novel and so I need to show how grateful I am by actually working on it in a more focused, structured manner. I can’t just daydream all the time and expect to be querying within a year.

While I know I need to do this, in practice it’s very, very difficult. I just want to sit around and daydream all the time while actually doing any work on the novel(s) in short bursts every once in a while.

I need structure. I have a second novel gamed out now and if I’m going to have to creative tracks, I can’t continue to drift.

Of course, the great irony of all of this that it’s possible I could do all this hard work and then, lulz, just as I’m querying seriously the entire world goes tits up because fucking Trump single-handedly starts a civil war /revolution.

Ugh. Fucking ugh.

But you have to have hope, I suppose. I can’t just stop everything and wait around to see if The Fourth Turning happens in late 2024, early 2025.

Let’s rock.

Trump’s New World Order: The End of NATO

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

With it growing more and more clear that malignant ding-dong Trump is probably going to win re-election in 2024, we have to start taking seriously the consequences of that particular political tragedy.

The most obvious foreign policy clusterfuck that will happen in a Trump second term is the end of NATO. What’s more, Trump will probably do everything in his power to hand over the entirety of Ukraine to the Russians. Given how bonkers and enamored Trump is with Russian-style autocracy, not even a complete rearrangement of the existing post-WW2 world order is out of the question.

And, what’s more, Trump could pull out our 28,000 man “tripwire” in South Korea as all of this is going on.

Now, it is difficult to comprehend exactly how the world’s nations would react to such momentus foreign policy moves on the part of King Ding-Dong I. But such an event would create not just chaos, but something of a power vacuum that would probably be filled by China.

And, in all honesty, I have to admit that in the back of my mind the idea that all the smug Twitter liberals might stop their massive exodus from the states if it was clear that Trump was going to remake not just America, but the world, in his deranged image.

Again, let me be clear — I hate violence of any sort. I hate guns, I hate violence and I’m a man of ideas and peace. Besides, I’m too old to make much of a difference to anything — or anyone — no matter how bad things might get. I suppose some overzealous ICE agent might murder me because I refuse to shut up about what a fucking cocksucker Trump is, but, lulz, other than that, no.

But Trump really gets as bad as we all fear, there is a least a small chance that he may spark something akin to a revolution on the part of Blues. There is always the chance it will fail and MAGA will only consolidate power in its aftermath, but I think we aren’t giving enough credience to the idea that there is a small chance that it won’t be Reds who freak out and take to the streets, but Blues.

I still don’t think that’s possible. Trump is going to win a second term and we will slide peacefully into a Russian-style autocracy. At least 1 million smug wealthy Blues will leave the country starting Election Day and that will be that. Soon enough, the existing ICE infrastructure will be weaponized and I’ll be rounded up.

Wish me luck.

‘Do Not Comply’

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

One of my conservative relatives — who I love dearly — continues to be enraged by the COVID restrictions of several years ago. They talk about how much they think they were “lied to” by the elites, yadda, yadda, yadda, blah, blah, blah.

Whenever this relative mentions grievance –which is often — I note to him that that is not how Republicans will win the 2024 election. Unless there is a significant uptick in COVID cases that leads to an attempt to bring by COVID restrictions, people in 2024 are going to want 2024 solutions, rather than someone who looks back at what happened in 2020.

Apparently, there is some belief within Righwing Twitter that those restrictions are coming back this fall. I find this fear delusional for a number of reasons, the chief of which is there just is no political will to do such a thing. Thousands of people could be dying a day from COVID this fall and winter and, lulz, there will be absolutely no political will to do anything about it.

It does make you wonder what will happen if some sort of pandemic happens in the future that is far, far worse than what we experienced with COVID. There is a real risk that if some sort of Big One happens that it could be that not until 10,000 people are dying a day will we manage to have any sort of political will to lock the country down.

The Bolts Continue To Pop Off The United States

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

The thing about history is while it’s happening, there is no narrative. As such, if you were living through, say, World War 2, the whole thing was value free. No one had any idea how, exactly, it was going to end. It was only, in hindsight, that we realized how obvious it was that the Nazis would be defeated.

I keep thinking about this as we careening towards late 2024, early 2025 when something akin to so-called Fourth Turning may occur. It seems to me at the moment that we’re just going to slip peacefully into a MAGA-themed autocracy. Smug, wealthy Blues who would otherwise be the leadership in any effort to do something about America’s transition into autocracy will be too busy leaving the country to do anything about it.

But there is a greater-than-zero chance that the two other scenarios might happen. It could be that either we have a civil war when Trump somehow manages to lose, or w revolution if Blues balk at our transition into an autocracy.

But remember, no one can predict the future. While it’s easy for center-Left people like me to think that we could solve all our problems by defeating MAGA on the battlefield, I hate violence and there’s no assurance that we, the Good Guys, will ultimately win.

So, it’s just as possible that Reds will successfully establish Trumplandia or any attempt at a Blue Revolution will fail and allow the consolidation of MAGA power as it is that we get to have the “cool stuff” associated with a Second Reconstruction.

All I can tell you is I will be astonished if we somehow, some way, manage to punt our structural problems down the road another four years. It definitely seems as though late 2024, early 2025 Will Be It.

Let Them Fight

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

In a growing sign of how surreal the modern world is, and how difficult it is sometimes to get through news headlines with a straight face — Elon Musk has blocked Catturd on “X.”

This comes after Space Karen made a big deal about how he wants to eliminate the ability to “block” someone on X. (I still have to do a double take whenever I write out “X” instead of “Twitter.”)

Anyway, the whole thing is bonkers. Both that Musk would block Catturd and the idea that Musk would do away with Blocking in favor of “enhanced Mute.” For someone so smart, Musk totally misses what is going on with social media at the moment.

If I was Musk, I would be a lot more focused on dragging X into AI era than I would screwing around with basic, existing features like Block. It is very easy to imagine a scenario whereby you could organically make an AI prompt a central feature of the text-based X.

And, yet, here we are, yelling at each other about the “who shot John” specifics of being blocked or even having the ability to block someone. We are living through the twilight of social media and Space Karen would be smart to leverage the user base of X in preparation for the next technological era, rather than worrying about dumb feature issues.

But, then, it’s not like I had $42 billion on hand to buy Twitter, only to drive into the ground.

Some Thoughts On Glenn Youngkin

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

Apparently there is a growing sense within the Republican monied class that they need a Great White Hope because of all of Trump’s legal problems. Among the people they’re considering is my governor, Glenn Youngkin. He’s waiting until the fall, after a state election, to decide if he will run or not.

The thing to consider about Virginia is it’s not really a swing or purple state so much as it is two states — one Red, one Blue — fused together who fucking hate each other’s guts. Rural Virginia is all-in with Trump and MAGA to the point that some Red counties in Virginia wanted to secede when we had a Blue governor.

The issue about Youngkin is he has proven himself to be just sort of There. He is moderate in temperment, but not politics. He is very much a MAGA person who would be just as fascist as Trump — and more effective — if he ran and became president. The Republican Party has been consumed by some very dark political forces to the point that the moment there is another Republican President, I don’t see how traditional American democracy survives.

And don’t forget that Youngkin won in Virginia not so much because of his message so much as enough moderate, independent Virginians were tired of having Democrat governors and voted for change. So any success he has had says more about the general ebb and flow of a functioning democracy than him any particular political aptitude on his part.

All of this interest in Youngkin seems like moved deck chairs on the Titanic to me. Something incredible would have to have happen at this point for Trump not to be the nominee and for him not to win the general in 2024. His victory in 2024 — and the dark, bonkers events that will be caused by that victory — seem to be something of an immutable force of political history at this point.

A Subtle Shift

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

On a political basis, I’m very much the red headed step child of my family. A quirk of my personal history has led me to be far more liberal than my immediate family. I love my relatives dearly, but it’s jarring that people so close to me could have such different political views from me.

It’s so bad that I often think that my personal life would be much, much better if I sold my soul to fascism and became MAGA. It really would improve my personal interactions a great deal.

But, alas, that’s not going to happen.

I bring all of this up because I had of my occasional in-depth political discussions with one of my MAGA-adjacent relatives and I was taken aback by the subtle shift in their political sentiment.

They have been really big DeSantis supporters in the past, but it definitely seems as though they have resigned themselves to Trump being the nominee. What’s more, they were not as quick to dismiss my “hysterical doom shit” about the possibility of a National Divorce if Trump should somehow magical not win the 2024.

My relative inhabits that tiny political sliver of people who are traditional conservatives who really like Trump’s policies, but aren’t willing to look past the issue of electability. This relative desperately wants to win so the “woke cancel culture mob” can be destroyed once and for all.

They don’t think Trump can win. I, of course, think that Trump is 60,000 votes in 5 swing states away from winning. But I do think that the subtle shift in my relative’s political views are indicative of broader forces at work within the Republican Party.

Something is shifting, but what the ultimate consequences of that shift might be, I don’t know.

I’m Growing Worried Trump May Freak Out When He’s Booked In Georgia

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

The more I learn about what ding-dong Trump is going to go through when he is booked in Georgia this week, the more alarmed I grow. Trump is already crazy enough as it is, there is a chance that when he sees first hand how bad the conditions are in jail while he waits to get booked that he might freak the fuck out.

I don’t think we appreciate how bonkers Trump could go between now and Election Day 2024. His natural instinct is to lash out whenever he feels trapped and my concern is he might begin to grow ever more transactional to the point that he’s directly telling his followers what he wants them to do to protect him on a personal basis.

The thing about Trump is, you just never know what that fucking crazed idiot is going to do. That, in a sense, is his power. Because you never quite know what to expect, your natural inclination is to assume the absolute worst.

Remember, Trump is an avatar, a vessel for broader problems in the American political system. As such, as I’ve mentioned numerous times before, we have to take seriously a scenario whereby Trump personally is responsible for a National Divorce in late 2024, early 2025 if he should somehow, magically manage to actually lose the 2024 election.

The stage is already set. The two sides so hate and misunderstand each other at this point that I just don’t see how we make it through the 2024 election cycle in one piece. There is a real risk that no matter who wins the election, one side or the other is going to feel they will have to take matters into their own hands because they can no longer get what they want peacefully through political means.

I don’t know what that means, but I do have my uneasy suspicions. It definitely seems possible that if Trump loses in 2024 — which I don’t think will happen — he will throw down the gauntlet and demand a National Divorce specifically to keep myself out of prison.

But, who knows. I sure as hell don’t.