Tag: Autocrats Never Lose

Scenes From A Failing Union

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

I on occasion find myself talking to a conservative relative of mine. While I love them dearly, the two of us could not be more different. In fact, in some ways, we’re on the exact opposite ends of the political spectrum. So, talking to this person is an insight into “how the other half lives,” if you will.

Here are some first-blush things I’ve noticed.

First and foremost, the Republican nomination is Tucker Carlson’s to lose. Even though my relative is not really MAGA but rather “MAGA adjacent” when asked, they were all-in on voting for Carlson if he runs for the nomination. Carlson has all the ingredients of Trump in 2015-16 and pretty much all he has to do is throw his hat into the ring and he will go toe-to-toe with Trump. It would be easy for Carlson to paint Trump as a “loser” who has lost a number of elections for Republicans.

So, for me at least, it’s curious that we’re not hearing more about Carlson’s presidential ambitions.

The next thing I found interesting is how the Trans movement is used to juice the conservative base on conservative podcasts. My relative, in fact, said they were rather tired of that being the only thing that anyone on his conservative podcasts are talking about. The thing about the Trans movement, which I generally support, is it is too often used as a bludgeon by conservatives against moderates and centrists to sort of force the issue of “which side are you on?”

We’ve reach a point where there is absolutely no middle ground on ANY issue of the day. None. Either you’re all in for the Right or you’re all in for the Left. The center has not held. What makes this whole situation even worse is there is a lot of agitprop about the Trans movement being pushed by all these popular Right wing podcasts to the point that the whole issue is so muddled to the point that it’s difficult for anyone to get a handle on what is really going on. (Which, of course, is the whole point.)

Another thing I notice is how potent the Gay Scare is within Republican ranks. What’s more, it is clear that even with your run-of-the-mill conservative that the idea of the state enforcing a Christian morality on secular society is very, very popular. It’s a catch all solution for anything that conservatives don’t like or can’t explain any other way.

They don’t like gay people because it’s a “sin.” They hate any form of gun control, so they say we have a “mental health crisis” or we all just need more of the Good Lawd in our lives. They hate the right to chose because they believe life begins at conception, so they all all for squashing female agency, even though they, themselves say they “just want to be left alone.”

The list goes on.

But the key takeaway from my conversation is how my center-Left echo chamber no longer has any overlap with my relative’s center-Right echo chamber. None. We can’t even agree on the facts anymore. There are basic ideas that make the Right seethe with rage, even if they little no basis in reality.

It definitely seems to me that we’re careening towards the existential choice of autocracy or civil war starting in late 2024, early 2025 in the context of the 2024 election cycle.

A National Divorce Would Be Just The Beginning

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

The thing about a so-called National Divorce, even if it was reasonably clean and reasonably bloodless is it would be just the beginning of a protracted era of chaos in North America. The reason is simple — both sides of the political equation in now-united America need each other for political, social and economic reasons.

The moment Red and Blue America officially cleave into two, independent nations, the age-old dynamics of rival nations would kick in. Add to this that all metrics point to Red America becoming inward looking, religious and a lot poorer, suggests that any “National Divorce” would inevitably prompt a re-match of some sort.

Red America, facing growing poverty in the context of finally being able to establish white minority autocratic Christian rule would have every reason to want to reunite the country at some point soon after the initial National Divorce.

But I’m working on the absolute best case scenario. Any National Divorce would be messy and chaotic and probably be happening in the context of WW3 breaking out. What happens if, say, the DPRK decides to lob a few H-Bombs on Blue America during the process of a very blood divorce? Then what are we going to do?

It seems to me that any divorce, for any reason, would cause a civil war / revolution of some sort to a scale and impact not seen since the French Revolution. The whole world would rumble as it began to sink in to various hostile powers across the globe that they now had free reign to do whatever the fuck they wanted while America was busying eating itself.

The point is — I really hope we don’t have a civil war, for whatever reason. I’m growing comfortable with the other possible choice America may make in late 2024, early 2025: autocracy. At least if we slide peacefully into a MAGA-themed autocracy, it’s less likely that millions will die. Though, in all honesty, I do fear that it would be inevitable that some MAGA Pol Pot might appear who starts to round up all the “woke” people he can find and we end up with American Killing Fields.

Anyway. I’m always wrong. Hopefully we will someway manage to avoid either autocracy or civil war….but something pretty spectacular would have to happen.

‘Digital Darwinism’

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

I’m growing alarmed at the prospect that just as the discovery of evolution lead to Social Darwinism and, as such Nazism, it seems possible the darkener element of MAGA might fuse with the rise of AI.

My fear is that because humans are lazy and have a natural inclination to “triangulate” with AIs, there will come a point when MAGA Nazi will use AI as validation for God only know what. We already have a situation where fucking fascist cocksuckers get really worked up with there are guardrails on AI. They want AI to be as racist, misogynistic and bigoted as they are.

And they can get really upset if they don’t get what they want. They call any form of guardrail on AI as “woke.” America is already careening towards a fascist one party state that establishes white Christian minority rule. It seems possible that if that is the new reality of America that our new autocratic overlords might throw AI into the mix and defer to AI in their efforts to justify genocide.

If you have “unwoke” AI established as the only “objective” outcome of that the state will allow, then, oh boy, are we fucked. I only raise this as a possibility because it definitely seems as though we’re rushing towards a perfect storm of a Petite Singularity and the Fourth Turning starting in late 2024, early 2025.

Anyway. I’m really worried about the unintended consequences of the intersection of AI and society. Things could get dark.

Biden’s Looming Debt Ceiling Fight Impeachment

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

Republicans are on the hunt for some reason, any reason, to impeach Biden. Just in the last 24 hours, they have been telegraphing that they want to lay the groundwork in the minds of voters that Biden is on the cusp of being impeached.

At the same time, there is the looming possibility that because of some very dumb politics the U.S. faces an unprecedented default. Biden may have to come up with some novel methods to avoid that default and if he does, it’s clear that House Republicans will strike and impeach him.

It doesn’t matter that Biden would have saved the global economy if he, say, invoked the 14th Amendment to avoid a default, Republicans will have their reason to impeach Biden and rally the base.

In principle, at least, Biden doing anything out of the ordinary is a gimmie for House Republicans impeaching Biden.

And, if you really want to think about it, it’s possible that even if we do default that that, unto itself, could be the reason why House Republicans impeach Biden.

Another theory of the case is that if Trump gets indicted a few more times, it would be helpful for Republicans to go through an impeachment process as all of that is happening. It could be that all this talk about impeachment is a preemptive measure in the face those potential looming indictments to give Republicans something to talk about as all of that happens.

It Appears Republicans Are Preparing To Impeach Biden Over ‘Vibes’

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

The Republican Party works in mysterious ways and it definitely seems as just within the last 24 hours they’ve all decided to begin the process of laying the ground for impeachment of Biden over “vibes” It makes you wonder “Why now?”

All I got is maybe they know that Biden is going to pull a rabbit out of a hat to save the country from default and, as such, they need to prepare the base for what it about to happen. They are officially looking for an excuse, any excuse, to impeach Biden, no matter how tenuous its connection to reality. It’s almost as if they’re just bored and they’ve decided they need a win.

They need to not only juice the base but distract low-information voters. Or, it could be, they have realized that if they’re going to impeach Biden before the 2024 election they kind of have to do it now. But the idea of impeaching Biden definitely is very appealing to the MAGA Republican base and given how fucking frothy and fascist Republicans are just in general, it’s something that was bound to happen sooner rather than later.

I have long though this was going to happen and have been thinking for some time that it was odd that Republicans hadn’t already impeached Biden since they had control of the House.

What The Fuck Are Republicans Up To?

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

Something curious has happened within Republican ranks in just the last 24 hours. All of a sudden, there’s all this chatter about this or that impeachable thing that Biden is alleged to have done — with absolute no proof. It makes you wonder if they haven’t decided that the need to impeach Biden for something, anything sooner rather than later.


One theory might be that Republicans believe that should Biden come up with some novel manner to avoid a default that they can use that as a reason to impeach Biden. This, despite it being Biden that would have saved everyone’s ass by having done so.

Regardless of why this is happen, it’s obviously part of a broader messaging campaign on the part of Republicans. They want to pound into people’s minds that we just about to impeach Biden for some reason, any reason. So, when it finally happens, they want low-information voters to shrug and just assume this was something that had been in the works for sometime.

I don’t think any of us normal people really appreciate how radicalized Republicans are and continue to grow. As I keep ranting about, the conditions for either autocracy or civil war are there, it’s just an issue of which one of those choices we ultimately pick.

At the moment, it could go either way.

Tucker Carlson: The Most Dangerous Man In America (2024 Presidential Cycle Edition)

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

I can attest that Tucker Carlson has a fucking stranglehold on the minds of the MAGA base. And we know that he hates Trump. As such, Carlson is now a wildcard when it comes to the 2024 presidential cycle.

I say all of this in the context of how bad Tiny-D seems to be flaming out as he attempts to jump on the national stage. So, Carlson 2024 is pretty much a turnkey solution at this point.

All he has to do is announce and he’s at least Trump’s equal in the minds of the MAGA base. And it’s very easy to imagine that the death-by-a-thousand-legal-cuts could finally bring Trump down to the point that someone like Carlson could step in to replace him.

The two men are both cowards and bullies. And remember, Trump is very lazy and very stupid and he serves as nothing more than an avatar for fascists who hate that America is not only browning but women are growing in their economic agency.

So, as such, Tucker wouldn’t have to do anything. He’s got the name recognition, the “brand,” if you will. And there are plenty of people who might see the Tiny-D implosion and glom onto Tucker because they get everything they want from Trump in a younger, more coherent package.

Only time will tell, I suppose.

The Looming Battle Over ESG

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

It is very interesting that the very people who “just want to be left alone” are the same people who bitch and moan about things like “environmental, social, and corporate governance” scores. If the free market thinks ESG is something to strive for the what’s the problem?

The “leave me alone” people who otherwise think the we should leave everything to the hand of marketplace, suddenly get all freaked out that that very thing is happening. And, what’s more, these are the same people who get REALLY upset over “woke” corporations.

So the very people who think the state should stay out of the way are the very people who would support a Federal ban on ESG scoring. The issue is, of course, that lulz, nothing matters. The siren call of fascism is so powerful in American politics that the obvious hypocrisy involved in wanting the state to intervene with the work of the free market is a lulz.

It just doesn’t matter.

The fascist concept of the “corporate state” is growing in popularity amongst people who should know better. There’s no going back. It definitely seems as though my prediction that we will face the existential choice of autocracy or civil war.

What I Got Wrong About Late 2024, Early 2025

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

If I was forced to predicted what I get wrong about late 2024, early 2025, I think it all boils down to the idea that somehow we punt our problems down the road AGAIN, just like we did in 2020.

The key issue would be that either Trump loses and just shuts up, or Biden isn’t the nominee in the first place and THAT person manages to unite the country in some way I can’t predict.

But here in early 2023, things are NOT looking great for America. All things considered, we either have a civil war or we turn into a MAGA-themed autocracy. That’s all I got.

So, something I simply can’t predict here in 2023 would have to happen to prevent that choice from happening. In 2020, it was a combination of Trump being VERY stupid and VERY lazy combined with a once-a-century pandemic that punted out problems down the road.

I just don’t see us being that lucky again.

As such, there is a very, very narrow window possibility for us to escape either turning into a MAGA-themed autocracy or having a National Divorce and, as such a civil war.

‘The Rumor’

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

This is a totally baseless rumor as far as I can tell, but I’ve had a bit to drink, so I will share what I saw on a very dubious Tik-Tok some time ago: there may be a Kamala Harris sex tape.

I’m sure this is total, complete bullshit. But just the idea that one MIGHT exist is enough to give me a serious case of hives because as today’s abrupt and unexpected firing of Tucker Carlson today proves — we may be entering a very strange election cycle.

My fears about this totally untrue rumor go something like this — Biden shuffles off this mortal coil between now and election day 2024. Harris becomes POTUS and she’s forced to resign because we all see her doing the nasty. The rumor I heard is she does it with her old beau Montel Williams. Anyway, THEN, we end up with a President MacCarthy.

It would be a head spinning series of events.

Again, I think all of this is total bullshit. But it definitely would make a lot of sense if it did exist. Harris is a very attractive woman and she seems like she was something of a wild child in her younger days.

I still believe the 2024 presidential cycle is shaping up to be completely fucking bonkers in ways that none of us could possible imagine.