Tag: Autocrats Never Lose

What’s So Funny ‘Bout Peace, Love & Understanding?

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

But for the fact that it would cause the world to descend into chaos, death and destruction, I would be prepared to call MAGA’s bluff on a National Divorce. In fact, I think,but for the prospect of civil war, revolution and WW3, that Blues should leave the Union in late 2024, early 2025 should it be clear that we’re going to become a white Christian ethnostate.

And, yet, I hate violence, so, lulz, I guess I have to root for Ron DeSantis being the Republican nominee so the risk of civil war goes down to pretty much zero but we still turn into a white Christian ethnostate.

In other words — we’re fucked.

No one is prepared for what is about to happen to the United States, one way or another. I suppose we might punt our systemic, structural problems down the road a little bit more, but things are coming to a head very, very soon. We just can’t escape the consequences of the browning of America and the economic rise of women.

And, of course, the “birth dearth” that is probably the real reason why everything is so fucked up in the United States at the moment — white people on a macro basis just can’t handle the transition to minority status and it’s eating away at them on a psychological basis.

I talk to my conservative relatives — whom I love dearly — and I’m aghast at how we can no longer even agree on what is “real” anymore. Red and Blue are receding away from each other on a macro basis at an alarming rate to the point that I just don’t see how we don’t become all Red (a white Christian ethnostate) or we don’t have a National Divorce that ends up burning the entire globe to the ground to a certain extent.

I just don’t know what to tell you. Buckle up. Things are going to get bumpy one way or another.

Imagining Trump’s Second Term

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

I’m always wrong, but here are some general ideas about what Trump’s second term might look like. The key issue for me is — how close do we come to a civil war in late 2024, early 2025 after Trump wins the 2024 election? If it becomes clear that his incoming agenda is EXTREMELY RADICAL, then there is a greater-than-zero-sum chance that Blue States begin to leave the Union.

It would all happen very, very quickly. So fast that a lot of people would get caught up in the moment and wouldn’t even realize what was going on until the Second American Civil War was actually on-going.

But I just don’t think that’s going to happen. While I do think that the chance of a 2ACW is far greater if Trump becomes POTUS, in the end, I just don’t think that Blues have it in them. Too many of the people who would actually incite a National Divorce — namely, Twitter liberals — have the means, motive and opportunity to use their newly obtained second passports to flee the country and setup shop in the south of France.

So, what would a Second Trump Administration actually look like? It would be based on revenge and the final battle between MAGA and the “deep state.” But I think the real issue, the thing will transform America into a white Christian ethnostate will be a Constitutional Convention.

Within months — days? — of Trump being sworn in, he’s going to start ranting about how he is going to run again, even though the Constitutional prohibits it. At some point, he’s going to realize he can get his MAGA Enabling Acts by calling a Constitutional Convention. It goes rouge because it’s make up of people selected by state legislatures –which are majority MAGA — and away we go.

As all of this happening, a huge pipeline of wealthy, smug Twitter liberals will flow out of the country until, of course, Trump — or whomever succeeds him — freaks out and makes it illegal to leave the country.

So, there you go.

Barring something I can’t predict — that’s America’s future.

History Doesn’t Repeat, But It Does Rhyme: The Secret Service As Praetorian Guard

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

I’m growing worried about the Secret Service. I know this will sound fucking hysterical, but you could game out a situation where MAGA Secret Service members toppled a Blue USA government if it was Reds, rather than Blues, who decided to leave the Union in late 2024, early 2025.

I am well aware of how hysterical this sounds, but the Secret Service has repeatedly proven in the last few years that they’re in for MAGA. And if the country was collapsing in some sort of National Divorce (and Blues were the ones keeping the USA “brand,”) it definitely seems as though they might do some sort of palace coup to help the Reds.

In short – we continue to be fucking screwed. The United States is being torn apart before our very eyes and the we face autocracy or civil war. And if it’s civil war, the only question is which side decides to leave the Union. At the moment, I honestly don’t know.

Good luck.

Time To Daydream

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

Now that I have completed a “private beta” of my first novel, I’m going to spend the next few days trying to go outside my creative comfort zone. Once I start the process editing the private beta to turn it into a public beta, I’m going to have a limited amount of time.

I’m going to have to push myself once I start the public beta process. I’ll only have a month to pull this particular stunt off. But I know I can do it. I’m just going to have to be really aware of my deadline. I can’t keep drifting towards my general goal anymore.

And once I finish the public beta, things are going to not be in my hands anymore. I’m going to have to wait for people to get back to me about the novel. AND, what’s more, all of this will happen in the context of me beginning the querying process AND looking into saving up for a professional editor to look over the novel to improve it, take it to the next level.

My current goal is to start the querying process early next year, just after the holidays wrap up.

As such, I think I’m going to really take seriously the idea of working on the SECOND novel in this projected six novel project. Or something. I’m going to keep writing something, anything, to keep my momentum going.

All of this is going to happen in the context, of course, of some sort of fucking Fourth Turning / civil war happening in 2024 – 2025. “Hopefully” we become an autocracy so at least my novels about how much I fucking hate MAGA will have the opportunity to resonate with millions of other people who feel the same thing as our already dead frog continues to cook and cook.

America Is In Deep Trouble

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

I talked to my conservative relative — who I love dearly — about the fact that Democrats, after being out of power for 12 years, were able to return in 1992 because they changed their policies. I said this in the context of suggesting to my conservative relative that rather than supporting fascist policies and hating democracy, that maybe Republicans could change their policy agenda.

“You mean you want us to turn into Democrats?” was their response.

It’s this type of thinking on the part of stalwart Republicans that I find very troubling in the context of the 2024 presidential campaign. At the moment, at least, it seems as though the 2024 election will be existential to our democracy. It’s going to be a total shitshow one way or another.

The only question in my mind at the moment is if we have a civil war or turn into an autocracy. I definitely think that because it’s most likely that the onus will be on Blues to leave the Union because Reds are politically ascendant that we NOT going to have a civil war, but rather simply slide peacefully into a MAGA Nazi themed autocracy.

About 1 million smug Twitter liberals will leave the country starting Election Day 2024 and that will be that. America will leave NATO and soon enough there will be a MAGA-run Constitutional Convention that will slap some sort of MAGA Enabling Acts onto the Constitution.

At the moment, here in 2023, that particular nightmare scenario seems a foregone conclusion.

Day 41: I’m Working On The Assumption There Won’t Be A Civil War

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

Well, things continue to go well with this novel. So well, in fact, that I find myself idly thinking about what happens if I actually sell the thing. Now, some context — it could be a loooooong time between when I start to query and when I get any sort of book deal. And, what’s more, from the point that I get a book deal, it could be 18 months before the novel is actually on bookshelves.

As such, for all my “hysterical doom shit” about there potentially being a Second American Civil War, on a personal basis, I’m definitely acting as if that isn’t going to happen. There wouldn’t be much of a market for a novel such as mine if we’re all too busy dodging explosions to go to the bookstore.

At least if we slip peacefully into autocracy the general gist of the series, which is all about how much I fucking hate MAGA Nazis and extremism in general — will grow very, very relevant.

So, there’s that, I guess.

Ugh, Everything Is So Dumb!

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

MAGA Nazis are such fucking crybabies. They are equal to some of the more extreme elements of the Trans movement when it comes to being willing to destroy everything in the name of “vibes.” Take, for instance, their reaction to the prospective new CEO of Twitter.

MAGA has some sort of vague sense of ideological purity that if they don’t get they freak the fuck out. They also love to gaslight when it comes to the issue of “free speech.” They want the absolute right to spread hate to the point that if you even bring up the idea of some of guardrails, they freak the fuck out. They see “free speech” as nothing more than an means to and end when it comes to establishing a fascist MAGA Nazi state.

The tragedy of the commons and all that.

The whole thing is completely fucking bonkers. It proves a point I’ve been making for some time — MAGA Nazis are politically ascendant and it could be that if we have a “National Divorce,” it will be Blues, not Reds who decide to serve papers.

I will note in passing that I’m worried about the next Republican president establishing an autocratic state using hard power, at the same time my conservative relatives — who I love dearly — are freaking out about “woke” corporations ruining their lives.

Everything is so dumb.

The Central Tenant Of MAGA & The Modern Conservative Movement is ‘Owning The Libs’

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

While I love them dearly, talking to my conservative relatives can be frustrating at times. Take, for instance, global climate change. They tell me on one hand that, in the end, technology may solve the crisis and, yet, when the free market comes up with things like ESG to facilitate that very thing — they get really, really angry.

So, it seems as though the only acceptable solution to global climate change for conservatives is, much like the gun violence crisis — no solution.

The only thing that most modern conservatives care about at the moment is “owning the libs.” That’s it. Over 200 children could die in a mass casualty event involving an AR-15 and conservatives would shrug, say “thought and prayers” and then piviot to this or that thing that they felt the libs had screwed up.

The earth could grow so hot that it was obvious that life on earth would soon be extinguished and conservatives would pivot to talking about the border crisis or the excesses of the Trans movement.

It’s shit like this that I find very troubling. It definitely seems that the absolute need to “own the libs” could very well force the existential choice of autocracy or civil war in late 2024, early 2025. That definitely seems to be the endgame for that particular urge on the part of Republicans.

I don’t have a ready answer for you. It just seems like we’re fucked.

It Definitely Seems As Though Biden Is About To Be Impeached

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

Welp, it definitely seems we’re lurching towards MAGA Republicans impeaching Biden in the very, very near future. In fact, if they did impeach Biden quick enough, they could very well impeach him TWICE within the next few months.

Once for the bullshit they’ve just come up with and another time for him using the 14th Amendment to avoid a debt default. Or maybe all of the bullshit Republicans have stirred up the last few days is simply prepping the way for an impeachment of Biden for SOMETHING, ANYTHING, so they don’t have to talk about all the criming that Trump continues to do on a nearly daily basis.

The only surprise in all of this is it’s taken MAGA Republicans this long to get around to impeaching Biden. It was inevitable that this was going to happen. Republicans are so devoid of any meaningful policies — that are popular, at least — that an impeachment or two is the political equivalent of crack. They get a quick, cheap way to juice the base and if they impeach Biden enough times, take away a talking point from the libs they so want to “own.”

The clock is ticking, regardless. It’s just a matter of time at this point. It will be interesting to see how long it takes the process to unfold going forward.

2024 Is Shaping Up To Be A Massive Clusterfuck

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

I’m growing more and more alarmed at what might happen in late 2024, early 2025. Here are the reasons why I fear 2024 could be the most historic presidential election since 1860.

Biden’s Age
Remember, there is a pretty wide amount of time where if anything, God forbid, happens to Biden, the entire election process will be thrown into chaos. From the moment the ballets are printed to Certification Day, if Biden abruptly shuffles off this mortal coil…we’re fucked. The system simply isn’t designed for the abrupt departure of the head of the ticket. Add to this that Harris hasn’t really impressed me as a Veep and…oh boy. Any student of history will tell you that often bad things happen in quick success during a crisis.

Trump’s Radical Agenda
Ding-Dong has made it very, very clear that any second term on his part will be based on revenge. In fact, his second term agenda is so radical that America will be at a crossroads. Either we have a civil war or we turn into a MAGA-themed autocracy. Given that the onus would be on Blues to decide if we have a civil war or not, I tend to believe we’re just going to turn into an autocracy. Blues just don’t have it in them, collectively, to leave the Union. What’s more likely to happen is a lot – A LOT — of smug Twitter liberals are going to flee the country en masse. Trump will transition us into an autocracy and whomever he picks as his veep will be our new Caesar Augustus.

Trump’s Criminal Problems
The thing about Trump is it possible that by the time the 2024 election rolls around, he will be under indictment for a number of Big Boy Crimes and yet he could still win the election. That’s the kind of shit that puts a lot of extra pressure on the system that is already at a breaking point.

Economic Unknowns
Two major issues could throw everything in the air. In the near term, we have to worry about a debt default that could crash the global economy in a rather abrupt manner. Meanwhile, at some point between now and early 2025, we have to worry about the possibility of some sort of Petite Singularity happening that would cause the economy to shed millions of jobs in a rather abrupt manner.