Tag: Autocrats Never Lose

What To Make Of ‘TEXIT’

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

I write a lot about how I think if there is any sort of National Divorce that it will be Blues, not Reds, who serve the papers. And, yet, here we are with shit like this:

So, here we are. There is actual move towards “TEXIT,” or Texas voting to secede from the Union. I continue to believe that this is just not going to happen unless something really unexpected happens.

I’ve beginning to believe that even if Trump is the 2024 Republican nominee that Trump will become president without a shot being fired. In fact, the only way I’m beginning to think that the only way this might happen is the following scenario: Trump is the nominee in 2024, but he loses and when he starts to demand a “National Divorce” people take him seriously about it.

Otherwise, it’s a lulz.

Either Trump wins outright and we just slide into some form of autocracy — especially should something happen to him and his veep become POTUS — or he’s the nominee and we become an autocracy that way.

So, in a sense, a lot of things would have to go wrong in a specific way for there to be a National Divorce. The question is — how possible that that specific series of events might happen?

It seems as though we’re still too far out to know one way or another. We don’t know Trump will be the Republican nominee. We don’t know if he will win the 2024 election and we don’t know if Trump loses and starts to rant about civil war if anyone will take him up on it.

A lot of this an issue of the economy. If the United States defaults on debts because we won’t raise the debt ceiling, then that sets up a situation where the economy is doing so badly that an already unstable United States would be primed and ready for strategic political violence.

Another issue is Biden’s age. There are a lot — A LOT — of nightmare scenarios dealing with Biden being out of the picture suddenly at just the wrong moment during the 2024 presidential cycle. I wince even thinking about any such thing happening, but history shows that sometimes once you’re in a crisis a lot of bad things can happen in quick succession.

So, should we take TEXIT seriously? Maybe. But maybe not YET. It could go either way with either there being TEXIT or there being, alternately, being CAXIT.

Things are very much up in the air at the moment.

How Tall Is Ron DeSantis?

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

I have no idea, for sure, how tall Ron DeSantis is. I have a few leads, but, oddly enough the last time I checked a few days ago, Wikipedia does NOT say how tall he is.

This leads me to believe that there may be an active campaign on the part of his would-be presidential campaign staff to obscure how tall he is. Here’s what I know:

And yet, if this is the case, how come Wikipedia doesn’t have his height? This leads me to believe that maybe however tall DeSantis is, he’s short enough that he doesn’t want anyone to know.

Or, if you want to get all paranoid about it, you could even go so far as to say that this is a ping from a future where DeSantis is POTUS and, well, lulz, America has become a Russia clone.

Speaking of Russia — Putin is pretty short, too, and that hasn’t stopped him from being Russia’s president for close to 30 years. And, what’s even more amusing — it’s not so much DeSantis’ height that I would be worried about so much as his weasley voice.

His voice is really, really fucking annoying. And, yet, even with him being short and having an annoying voice, non-Trump MAGA cocksuckers are so in love with the “idea” of DeSantis that he could very well be the next POTUS.

Is 2023 a New 1788?

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

As I grow more and more alarmed about what is going to happen in late 2024, early 2025, I think I’m going to add more books about the French Revolution to books that I buy then wait years to read.

It seems to me that because of income inequality, the United States may burst into civil war and revolution as part of the 2024 presidential cycle. And, honestly, sometimes I think it’s just a matter if its Blues or Reds who are going to be the ones who get fed up and bolt the Union. (Spoiler Alert: it will probably be Blues.)

But the United States is so huge, diverse and powerful that if we collapse into civil war and or revolution, it will one of the biggest events not just in American history — but human history. The only thing I can compare it to would be the 1789 – 1799 French Revolution combined with the American Civil War.

The world really will be turned upside down if the United States should buckle – it probably would prompted WW3. The entire global order would be thrown up in the air until everything was sorted out one way or another. And just because Blues might leave the Union to start their own center-Left nation doesn’t mean that there wouldn’t be mission creep and, ultimately, there would be a global conflagration that would totally re-arrange the entire global framework.

But, before I go down that hysterical path TOO much, remember — I’m always wrong. I think, in the end, that DeSantis will be elected and initially, any changes in the United States will be rather subtle. It won’t be until 20 years of DeSantis consolidating power that we’ll endup invading Canada to overthrow the “woke cancel culture mob” there.

Or, put another way — I’m probably full of shit and why are you even listening to me at all? Wink.

My Latest Attempt To Explain The Battle Royale Over ‘Wokeness’

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

Ok. Here goes. I think, at its heart, “wokeness” is really about white Christians flipping out that America is careening towards a majority minority nation and, as such, “wokeness” is a debate about that transition.

As such, the white Christian “powers that be” scream about “wokeness” as an effort to rally other white (angry) Christian (men) in an effort to establish permanent white Christian minority rule. It’s a dog whistle for their broader fears about not being in the majority anymore.

So, ANYTHING they don’t like is considered “woke” because they need some sort of catch-all for the bad vibes that white Christians feel as a majority of the country becomes brown, secular and feminist.

That’s all I got, at least.

The Sides Are Set

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

No amount of “owning the libs” or rhetorically “destroying” this or that MAGA person means jack shit. This is it, the two sides are set — and they’re hardening their positions.

There are just 100,000 people in four or five swing states who will ultimately decide if we have a civil war with Red States leaving the Union or a civil war with Blue States leaving the Union. Or, even more likely, we won’t have a civil war at all, but rather, we’ll just slip peacefully into autocracy.

America is in a serious, lingering rolling political crisis with no obvious endgame in sight. In short, the one thing we all want — to remain in a traditional Western democracy — is the one thing that is the absolute least likely to happen.

The United States is careening towards a very dark future, one way or another. I just can’t figure out which one. A lot is going to depend on Trump. If he is the Republican nominee, the likelihood of a civil war grows exponentially. If he is not the Republican nominee, then either he splits the vote and maybe — just maybe — Biden wins a second term and we punt our problems down the road again.

Or, Trump folds and supports DeSantis and we become an illiberal democracy like Hungary.

Anyway, I hope to wrap up my novel in time to flee the country with all the smug liberals. Wish me luck.

The Conundrum That Is America’s Immediate Future

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

Something Big Is looming in America’s future — but what?

I honestly don’t know. It could go either way and by either way autocracy or civil war. I fear the nation is far more fragile politically than we’re willing to admit to ourselves.

I keep thinking about different scenarios for the future between now and, say, spring 2025 and the least likely is we’ll have a 2020 situation again where we somehow punt the problems that are tearing the country apart down the road one more election cycle.

At the moment, at least, it seems, Ron DeSantis (or some other non-Trump Republican figure) will become POTUS and we’ll slip peacefully into autocracy. That will be that.

We’ll wake up in 20 years and wonder why not only have we had the same POTUS for 20 years but why we’re invading Canada to save it from “wokeness.”

It’s all very curious. I have no ready answers as to what is going to happen to America. But I do have a lot of fears.

2025: Am I Going To Be Antifa In A MAGA Fascist State?

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

Unlike most fucking keyboard warriors on Twitter, I have enough strength in my convictions that should the worst happen and we turn into a MAGA fascist state in 2025, I’m prepared to risk my life and sacred honor in the real fucking world.

I only say this because I’m something of a loudmouth crank and it’s inevitable that if things get as bad as I fear that I’ll round afoul of either autocrat Trump or autocrat DeSantis

So, there you go. Whatever that means in real terms, I’m prepared to live that new, scary existence. I’m just never, ever going to be a “Good German,” whatever that means for me once the United States is an autocracy. HOPEFULLY, I will have written a breakout first novel by that point and maybe that will give me the funds the get the fuck out of the country.

I will be able to a guest on all the Left-leaning podcasts that will be produced in the south of France once all the fucking smug liberals have left the country. In fact, I’m looking forward to being a smug liberal expat. That would be kind of fun, if late in life.

And, again, I could still be wrong — no fate but what we make and all that. It could be that, just like with 2020, the hand of God will step in and somehow allow us to punt all these existential problems we have down the road one more election cycle.

I have my doubts, but you never know.

‘Cry, The Beloved Country’

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

Well, it’s time for me to redouble my reading about the rise of the Nazis in Germany. My Traditionalist relatives — who I love dearly — totally lulzed the idea it’s possible my fears about bloggers such as myself being forced to register with the government.

So, I think my alarm over MAGA being American Nazism is valid. I’ve found myself reading a lot more about history — especially the Nazis — and Great Men. I need to understand how to live through what could be Very Interesting Times starting sometime between now and, say, spring 2025.

What do I think is going to happen?

I honestly don’t know. Maybe nothing is going to happen. I’m always wrong, afterall.

But the idea that my conservative relatives would not realize that I, personally, could run afoul of our new American Autocrat, whomever that may be. I’ve long suggested that my Traditionalist relatives have one Red Line — ME.

And, yet, given how much they are lulzing the prospect of me NOT being a Good German ike them, I definitely seems like I may be on my own when the crisis strikes.

I have to prepare myself for either going underground once we’re an autocracy, or I’m going to become a domestic political refugee. If it’s the latter, then, I suppose it’s possible that I might be able to make a name for myself within Blue ranks.

That sounds rather delusional at this point, but in times of civil war and revolution, strange, unexpected things are known to happen.

DeSantis Is Worse Than Trump

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

I’ve begun to see some signs that the #NeverTrump movement may be beginning to buckle at little bit now that they don’t have malignant ding-dong Trump to rally against. I saw a headline from The Bulwark, a major #NeverTrump online publication, suggesting that DeSantis is “not worse than Trump.”

This is totally wrong.

First, some context. American democracy is so fragile at the moment — in large part to Republicans not even believing that we ARE a democracy — that, by definition, I believe our next Republican president will be America’s first autocrat.

One way or another, the moment we have another Republican president, that’s it for American democracy. We’re going to slide into a Hungary-like situation where we’re no longer a functioning democracy. There are two ways this might come about.

There’s the brazen — when President DeSantis demands a Constitutional Convention for what sounds like harmless reasons that goes rouge and ultimately codifies MAGA into the Constitution. and there is far more subtle, insidious version.

So, I could see either that the years 2025 – 2033 are a huge struggle over what a Constitutional Convention is going to cram into the Constitution or it could be that we wake up to Speaker (Veep?) DeSantis in 2033 while he figures out how to get the Constitutional Convention.

This is what Putin did, ultimately, and given how popular authoritarianism is within Republican ranks, I don’t see why this won’t happen to America, too. It could be that someone like DeSantis could decide that the fucking so-called “Resistance” is simply too weak to worry about and he will consolidate power in such a way that he gets everything he wants while Morning Joe commentators whine and complain — but ultimately aren’t able to do anything.

DeSantis is worse than Trump because he’s young and focused and knows how to use the levers of power to get what he wants in ways that Trump is too lazy and stupid to do. Though, I will note that if Trump is the 2024 Republican nominee, the chance of some sort of Second American Civil War increases dramatically.

So, DeSantis is far, far worse than Trump and if he’s elected the great fleeing of Twitter liberals will begin and they’ll all sit around drinking white Russians in the south of France, telling me how great MeUndies are on the podcasts.

‘Knock At The Door’ — A Short Story About The Beginning Of The Second American Civil War In Late 2024

Knock At The Door

A short story by Shelt Garner

December, 2024 

When the knock at the door finally came, I was expecting it. I eyed my bug out bag in the corner. The wealthiest, most powerful democracy in human history was tearing itself apart and I was filled with dread as to the inevitable. 

Just a glance at Twitter was enough to give me all the information I needed. My timeline was filled with video clips of America’s last death spasms before the National Divorce we had all heard about finally occurred. Most of the dramatic footage was of a mad rush at airports as people fled states that did not fit their political leanings. 

All of this was happening as Blue State governors were having an extended summit to decide what to do now that it was clear that the MAGA state legislatures of swing states that Biden had won would never let his election be certified. 

As such, at the moment, no one knew who the next president was going to be. While there were rumblings of the U.S. Military stepping in to keep the country together, no one took these comments seriously.

This was because of how even the U.S. Military was beginning to collapse as the educated officer corp aligned itself with the center-Left, which was beginning to call itself Antifa without any shame. Meanwhile, MAGA leaning enlisted were beginning to demand the military side with Trump, no matter what. 

I finally got up from my desk and walked to the front door, psyching myself up for the confrontation that was about to occur.

The door opened to the sight of three armed men wearing the Lion badge of MAGA partisans. I stared at the three men — whom I knew well — while each side waited for the other to say something.

“Jake, I’m sorry, but it’s time for you to go,” one of the men finally said to me.

I leaned on the door, my head down in grief. It had finally come to this. I was on the cusp of becoming a domestic political refugee. My Left-leaning politics were well known within my rural county and, as such, I was facing a moment of truth. 

“Man, what am I going to do about my dad? You know he’s in a nursing home. I can’t just leave him. The man is nearly 100 years old.”

“I’m afraid you’re going to have to make that decision on your own. You’re a groomer and it’s time for you to go live with your woke communist groomer friends — or else.”

“What the hell are you talking about, dude? Have you lost your mind? I’m no ‘groomer,’ whatever the hell that means. I’ve done a lot for this community in the last few days as things started to get tense. You can at least give me 24 hours before I have to leave.”

The three men looked at each other before their leader nodded.

“No. Sorry. You have to leave now.”

I nodded my head in agreement and shut the door. I rushed over to my bug out bag and slung it over my shoulder. Thankfully, it was still daylight. The moment I started heading towards the main north-south road near my home, I stood stunned for a moment at what I saw.

A massive horde of people filled the depression where the road was. The sight was the type one might see in vintage WW2 footage of people fleeing the Soviets in 1945. But, here I was, seeing such a sight in rural virginia in 2024. 

I started walking towards the massive crowd of moving bodies, looking for a place to squeeze myself into. I finally found a place and began to walk north towards what I hoped was safety. 

And, yet, I also had some business to attend to. I looked around the others walking north and saw the fear in their eyes. I wondered if they saw the same thing with me. 

I dwelled on what might happen next. 

The last news reports I saw on Twitter indicated that the entire post-WW2 liberal order was on the cusp of collapsing, along with the United States. Specifically, it seemed as though China was about to invade Taiwan and the DPRK was set to invade South Korea at any moment.

I stopped cold, thinking about what might happen if the DPRK decided to begin lobbing H-bombs on the USA once the Second American Civil War began in earnest. 

After about two miles of walking and brooding with the mob, I was able to push my way through to my immediate destination — the nursing home where my father currently lived.

For a moment, the chaos surrounding me faded. Once inside the nursing home, everything seemed to snap back into place. It felt like summer 2024, before the chaos that began on Election Night happened.

I found my father, as always, asleep in bed.

I shut my eyes, trying to hold back tears as the cold, hard facts of the moment began to sink in. There was nothing I could do but hope that somehow, someway, my father would be safe once the looming Second American Civil War began. 

For a second, I thought of trying to take him with me as I headed towards the rebellious Blue States north of Virginia. Then I remembered that Virginia itself was on the cusp of descending into a intercine battle of intra-state warfare. 

I decided to stay by my father’s side as long as I could. I knew, however, that that would not be forever.