Tag: Autocrats Never Lose

People Continue To Think We’re Going To Have Another Civil War

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

If my Webstats are any indication, a lot of people have come to believe that the United States is ripe for another civil war. At the moment, I lean towards believing this is not the case, especially if Ron DeSantis — or someone like him — is the Republican nominee.

But as long as Trump is a viable political force, there is the chance he, unto himself, could provoke a civil war. It could be that his historical purpose is ultimately not to just wear down democratic norms to the point that someone like DeSantis can finish our transition into autocracy, but to be the individual that literally destroys the United States by causing its collapse into Red and Blue.

I know how hysterical that sounds, but given Trump’s tendency to say the quiet part out loud and his very radical proposed second term agenda anything is possible on that front. It could be that Trump won’t even have to cheat that much in 2024 — it will be very similar to 1860 in the sense that Blue States, rather than Slave States will feel that their political foes are so politically ascendant that they have no choice but to attempt to leave the Union.

I only suggest such a thing because in my personal life, within my own family, macro trends are beginning to interfere with my ability to have any sort of political debate with people I disagree with. There is a real rage within the Red movement and if Trump’s radical second term policies are enacted, the country could collapse into two warring states because Blues begin to equal the rage of Reds.

This is all very speculative. Again, a lot hinges on Trump. If he’s out of the picture for some reason, then well, lulz, the chances of a civil war are significantly lower — if none existant.

We still have a long time between now and when all of this might happen, which would be between Election Day 2024 and Certification Day 2025. Most of the Biden Administration may be impeached by a Republican House, which will only serve to enrage Blues and, as such, when the time comes they my be primed and ready for a “National Divorce.”

I Was A Centrist For A Day & All I Got Was A Headache

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

When I was a wee young thing, I discovered a collection of the works of conservative thinker George Will and for a few days I was a nascent Young Republican. This soon faded, however, and I reverted back to my usual center-Left ways.

I find myself thinking about that event after spending a lot of mental energy mulling the political concerns of my Traditionalist relative. I have spent a lot of time weighing all of his legitimate criticisms of the center-Left and ultimately the whole thing just left me with a headache.

The reason is — he, along with the entire MAGA echochamber — conflate the soft power of Twitter with the hard power of the U.S. Government. What’s more, MAGA — especially its “thought leaders — have a huge fucking chip on their shoulder. They want to shit on smug Twitter liberals while at the same time they crave the validation of those very same people.

It’s like a high school nerd who would do anything to sit with the “cool kids” but if it ever happened, all they would do is bitch and complain about how the “cool kids” were idiots.

That contradiction combined with the not-so-latent racism, misogyny and bigotry of the MAGA movement makes me snap back to my usual center-Left anti-MAGA ways no matter how much my Traditionalist relative rants about the Biden Administration may have gone overboard in its efforts to crack down on COVID disinformation.

The issue is — MAGA and its Traditionalists allies are so alarmed by the rapid demographic changes in the United States population that they will do anything to maintain power. Even to the point of actively working to establish permanent white minority rule in the context of a Christian ethnostate.

I’m just not all that worried by the browning of America and I’m not all that worried about women having more economic opportunities. Sounds like a good time to me. I’m far more worried at the moment about the rise of chatbots and the possibly Singularity happening in the context of a moderate to severe recession in 2023.

That is something to worry about, not how fucking annoying it is that the woke cancel culture mob has an orthodoxy about the proper use of pronouns.

Chatbot Regulation Is Looming

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

I spoke to my Traditionalist relative today who is by nature 100% against any form of regulation and was taken aback by how open he was to regulating chatbots. Now, the subtext of this is not so much saving jobs as it is, of course “bais.”

I’m sure in his MAGA podcast echochamber they’re all aghast that ChatGPT is too “woke” simply because it doesn’t validate their MAGA agenda about such hot button topics as “What is a woman?” So, the whole issue of how chatbots could radically transform our economy in a very short amount of time is a lulz, but a chatbot not validating the policy goals of MAGA is a bridge too far.

It will probably start with hearings in 2023 by the Republican House looking into how powerful ChatGPT is in education overnight. And, along the way, it will become a MAGA Nazi talking point as chatbots grow more culturally potent that they need to be regulated to stop the “woke indoctrination” of America’s youth because it won’t let little kids learn jokes about women.

It all goes back to something I think about all the time — MAGA Nazis love to conflate the soft power of smug Twitter liberals with the hard power of the government that they want to control so badly. MAGA Nazis have gone from 2016’s “Fuck your feelings” to 2023’s “ChatGPT is hurting my feelings by not agreeing with me so it has to be regulated to do so.”

And all of this is going to happen really, really fast. It might even feel like it just snapped into place overnight. ChatGPT is definitely a ping from the a possible Singularity. None of us are prepared for how radically our economy may be changed

There’s An Alternative Universe Where I’m ‘Catturd’

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

Given my background and personality along with how easy it is to be a MAGA Nazi grifter, there’s definitely an alternative universe where I’m a “Catturd” like figure. I have a knack for self-promotion and the MAGA Nazi grift economy is so potent that if had a brain transplant and was a MAGA Nazi, it would be me that Elon Musk was tweeting at, not Catturd.

I often look back at the long arc of the MAGA Nazi grift and am amazed at how easy it would be for me to find myself a MAGA Nazi “thought leader” who occasionally dined with our POS former POTUS.

Any cost-benefit analyst would tell you that cold hard metrics would encourage anyone with no ethics or standards to join the “Trump Train” if they wanted a great deal of outsized power, influence and, yes, cash.

But it’s just not to be, I’m afraid. I know my true north and I’m not prepared to become a “success” at the MAGA Nazi grift at the expensive of my mental well being. I would probably drink myself into oblivion and wouldn’t be able to look at myself in the mirror if I went the Catturd route.

Just having peace of mind is worth it. I would rather be comfortable in my own skin, be true to myself than all the success of being a MAGA Nazi might bring.

The American Right’s Rage Is Real

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

As I keep saying, fascism is very popular in the United States. There is a certain segment of the American Right which has, because of the huge cultural chip on their shoulder, given up on democratic norms and craves permanent white minority rule.

They feel so put upon that they are willing to sacrifice their American birthright of democracy in the name of not having to learn people’s pronouns or ensuring that their children aren’t “indoctrinated” with the “mind virus” of the “woke cancel culture mob” while at college.

There’s an extensive not just permission structure but ecosystem that has been built out for MAGA Nazis and their fellow travelers. They are so enraged about the changing nature of American society — and what they feel they “can’t say anymore” — that they would rather live in a fascist state than have the politics of a functioning Western democracy where things would get hashed out one way or another.

It’s because of how broken our politics are so broken that things that would otherwise get hashed out — like “What is a woman” — are festering to the point that our slide into fascism is almost inevitable at this point. And the “woke cancel culture mob” does none of us any good by screaming at the top of their lungs over how many pronouns can dance on the head of a pin or this or that “unwoke” thing in a movie that triggers them because it doesn’t fit their strict woke orthodoxy.

The part that boggles my mind is MAGA Nazis love, love, love to conflate the soft power of smug elite Twitter liberals with the hard power of the government. They do this to the point that they are forced to twist themselves into rhetorical pretzels when it comes to basic issues of free speech. In the end, it’s a matter of “Free speech for me but not for thee.”

They want to control who gets free speech, but in such a way that they “own the libs,” even if makes them look like hypocrites.

All of this boils down to the extreme negative polarization because of changing American demographics that make straight white Christian men feel nervous about their status in society. It’s very easy to see the trainwreck that is about to happen in American politics at some point between now and, say, spring 2025. I say this with fear that things like ChatGPT could destroy the American economy rather quickly as we transition into a post-work economy.

I don’t know what to tell you. There are no easy answers, no easy solutions. Maybe get a passport? Figure out what you believe in when it comes to things with real world implications?

Regardless — good luck!

President DeSantis Will Be America’s Putin

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

By definition, the next Republican to be POTUS will ben our first autocrat. They will come into office, destroy what’s left of our democratic norms and we’ll wake up in 20 years and wonder why that same president is invading Canada for some reason.

These days, I really struggle to figure out how I might be wrong about that prediction. Is it possible that we might at least punt the problems associated with our growing fascism problems down the road one more election cycle? I have my doubts. In fact, the only reason why I think it’s even possible is things are just too far out for me to be able to know for sure what is going to happen.

The time between now and 2024 is a really, really long time in politics and anything could happen — anything. We don’t even know if Biden is going to run for a second term yet.

But the safest bet is that 2023 – 2025 could be one of the most tumultuous times in modern American history. It’s safe to say that if DeSantis is the GQP nominee that it’s a lot less likely that we’re going to have a civil war.

And, yet, there is the issue of Donald Trump lurking around. Barring something I really, truly can’t predict, we have to assume that Trump is going to be the Republican nominee in 2024 and, as such, the possibility of a Second American Civil War grows far, far more likely.

But if it’s DeSantis, we will avoid a civil war and slip into a new autocratic era in American history. If we’re lucky, we’ll be something akin to Hungary or Turkey and if we’re not lucky, we endup more like Russia or Nazi Germany. Only time will tell.

How Do You Fix This Chatbot ‘Bias’ Problem?

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

I saw someone angry at this output from OpenAI Chatbot and the fact that it made him angry enraged me.

It makes me angry because this is why we can’t have nice things. Members of the “men’s movement” want the right to force a chatbot to say hateful, misogynistic things about women — starting with “jokes” and getting ever worse from there.

I think given how society tends to shit on women in general that the last thing we need is a fucking chatbot adding to the pile on. And, yet, here we are, in 2022, almost 2023 with diptshits getting angry that they can’t hate on women. But I think, gaming out this particular situation in the future that we’re in for a very, very dark situation where a war or wars could be fought over who gets to program the “bias” into our new chatbot overlords.

It’s going to suck.

It’s When People Come At Me From The Political Left That I Don’t Know What To Do

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

I continue to brood about what, exactly, is the “woke cancel culture mob” and if it even exists. At the moment, all I know is that being “woke” simply means whatever it needs to mean so Ron DeSantis gets closer to being POTUS. That’s it — it means everything and nothing.

And, yet, from my own personal experiences on Twitter, there definitely does seem to be a small, but vocal, group of people who would fit the description of being “woke.” I think a better description of them would be “cultural Leftists.” They tend to be extremely touchy about things like pronouns, being “triggered,” the broadest, most complex definition of a what a “woman” is, all the while being totally oblivious to the rise of cold, hard MAGA Nazism.

They’re so busy making people like me who are generally on their side feel bad for not following their very strict orthodoxy about this or that “woke” thing that they totally miss that, in the end, both they the “woke” and me the “unwoke” could endup in the same Trump branded weaponized ICE camp. I’m sure I’m stumbling across some sort of political rule of thumb about how fascism takes over a democracy.

I think what’s most important is that, in general, the center-Left really needs to work on its messaging. When I have to spend five minutes wading through the “anti-MAGA people are all woke members of the cancel culture mob who want to turn everyone gay” narrative from my Traditionalist relatives whenever I try to talk to them about politics — American democracy has a problem.

It’s so bad that it is literally impossible for my Traditionalist relatives to distinguish between Democrats and pretty much the spawn of gay satan…oh boy. All I know is, the “gay scare” of 2022 – 2023 is alive and well in my little corner of the universe. I just want my otherwise sane Traditionalist relatives to help me defeat MAGA Nazism…but they’re just too consumed with the cultural wars to even think about it seriously.

All of this is very touchy and difficult to write about because, well, the “woke cancel culture mob” is known to fly off the handle if you don’t totally, absolutely agree with them on their most extreme positions. Which, of course, proves me point.

Anyway, I fucking hate MAGA Nazis. I just wish cultural Leftists would be willing to cool it and work with more centrist people like me to defeat the rise of fascism in the United States.

‘Cap or Fact:’ Is Google Saving Us From Ourselves When It Comes To The Looming ChatBot Revolution?

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

So, the “Musk whisperer,” Jason Calacanis, tweeted this image out of an email he got in regards to where Google is when it comes to chatbot technology.

If this is true, then raises a lot of questions of both a technological and political nature. We have no idea — at least at the moment — if this email is true or not, but it definitely *feels* true. It feels like something Google, in their infinite and paternalistic wisdom would do to “save us from ourselves” in regards to a looming chatbot revolution.

And, yet, a part of me is dubious about this claim. If anyone can make money off of the chatbot revolution, it’s Google and, as such, they can talk all they want about “not being evil” but, in the end, the amount of money they might be able to make from being at the center of the chatbot revolution probably is pretty stunning.

The email is very curious to me because there definitely seems to be a little bit of implied whining that if only the evil “woke” people at Google would let their chatbot free then we would have some sort of hyperproductive nirvana. It’s the usual type of bullshit found in any conspiracy theory where everything would be solved but for one piece of the puzzle that the Powers That Be won’t let us have.

I suspect, however, that 2023 is going to be put up or shut up time for Google if they do have such technology. If we do happen to have a severe-ish recession, then the pressure for Google to step in with its advanced chatbot technology will only grow — maybe to a breaking point. I say this because it’s very possible that because coming ChatBot 4.0 might be just good enough to replace many, many, many jobs during the 2023 recession.

What’s worse, in a day-after-tomorrow scenario, someone like Elon Musk might put in a quasi-AI into an EV semi and there go 3 million high paying blue collar jobs virtually overnight. Talk about an economic disruption! If all of this happen before the 2024 election then the possibility that fascist MAGA Nazis will swoop in and transform the United States into Trumplandia becomes a very real possibility. That or, of course, a civil war happens when Blue States dip out of the Union because they’re tired of MAGA Nazi bullshit.

The Looming Chatbot ‘Bias’ War Of 2023 & Beyond

by Shet Garner
@sheltgarner

The biggest extremital problem that Western Civilization has at the moment is extreme partisanship. Other problems come and go, but the issue of absolute, extreme partisanship is something that is entrenched to the point that it may bring the whole system down eventually.

As such, the issue of chatbot (or eventually AGI) bias is going to loom large as soon as 2023 because MAGA Nazis are just the type of people who will scream bloody murder because the don’t get their preconceived beliefs validate by the output of the AI.

You see this happening already on Twitter. I’ve seen tweet after tweet from MAGA Nazis trying to corner ChatGPT into reveling it’s innate bias so they can get mad that their crackpot views aren’t validated by what they perceive as something that should only be shooting out “objective” truth.

Just take the favorite hobby horse of the far right, the question, “What is a woman?” As I’ve written before, given the absolute partisanship that we’re experiencing at the moment there is no answer — even a nuanced one — to that question that will satisfy both sides of the partisan divide. If the MAGA Nazis don’t get a very strict definition of “what is a woman” then they will run around like a chicken with its head cut off because of how the “woke cancel culture mob” has been hard wired into AI.

Meanwhile, Leftists as always shooting themselves in the foot as usual, also demand a very broad definition of “what is a woman” for political reasons. While most of the center-Left will probably be far more easily plicated by a reasonable, equitable answer to that question, there is a very loud minority on the Left who would want the answer of “what is a woman” to be as broad and complicated as possible.

So, the battle over “bias” will come down to a collection of easy-to-understand flashpoints that we’re all going to deal with in 2023 and beyond. It’s going to be complicated, painful and hateful.