The imagery of the “semi-mobilization” in Russia is alarming, to say the least. It definitely feels as though we’ve entered a new stage of the Russo-Ukrainian War one that might see an escalation between the two nations either now before it snows or in the spring.
Add to this that Russia has cut Europe off from its gas reserves and we really do have the winter of our discontent rushing towards us. But the question is, of course, is Russia going to remain stable going forward or is this mobilization the first step in a rapid decline in the stability of the world’s largest nuclear power?
I honestly don’t know. But history would definitely indicate that that is a real possibility. Repeatedly in Russian history major political debacles have caused massive political change.
Or, put another way, the world is a lot less stable than you might otherwise think. It’s at least possible that we’ll look back upon 2022 as a modern day 1937, where we got a shot across the bow that a world war was brewing. It seems to me very possible that what might happen is the United States for some reason withdraws from the global order — be it because of civil war, military junta or MAGA themed autocracy — and that is the thing that pushes into something akin to a new world war in 2024 – 2025.
The point is — Pax Americana is in its last days. We’re about to go through a very, very turbulent period in human history. There will be no narrative or value to any of it until it’s over and we figure out who the winners are.
It’s growing alarmingly clear that in an abstract fashion, Reds fucking hate Blues with a white hot rage. I’m not particularly fond of MAGA Republicans, either, so you could say the feeling is mutual. And, yet, given how at the moment everyone assumes that if there’s a National Divorce that it will be Republicans (Reds) who serve the papers, what will be the reaction with the opposite happens?
I suspect there will initially be a big difference between rank-and-file Reds and the Establishment. Initially, your average Republican will be ecstatic that they have finally gotten rid of those given “groomer” libtards who want to take their guns and turn everyone gay. Meanwhile, up in the upper echelons of the Federal government, Republicans are going to freak the fuck out.
And things get interesting. While the MAGA base is celebrating in the streets that the United States can finally become a white Christian ethnostate in peace, there is going to be a lot of messaging on the part of the Republican Establishment to try to get MAGA to support crushing Blue states in an effort to keep the country in one piece.
It will be ironic and surreal, but that’s usually the path that history takes. Whatever the most ironic and surreal thing history can possibly do is the direction it goes. It happens all the time.
Anyway, hopefully we won’t have to deal with that. Hopefully we somehow manage to punt our massive number of structural problems down the road and don’t have to deal with the possibilities of autocracy, civil war or military junta.
Because the issue of “wokeness” is so often demagogued by Right wing nutjobs, the whole issue is so conflated and muddled that generally in the minds of conservatives is just means “something I don’t like and may ruin my life.” But let’s try to break down not just what “being woke” means, but it’s causes as well.
A lot of the issue of “being woke” comes from generational changes combined with technological changes. It’s easy for the most idealistic and touchy voices of the Zoomer generation (or whatever) to be the one we all hear about the most to the point that even if you don’t agree with the most woke of concepts, you still somehow find yourself having to defend them.
I mean, in the 70s there were some spicy takes on the part of second wave feminists that were so extreme that even your most woke person today might blanch at them a little bit. So “wokeness” has existed since dirt, but technology — to a limited extent — has given these spicy woke takes a lot more potency. Add to this dramatic differences in what different generations believe on the hot button issues of the day and you have a recipe for conservatives getting really angry about people being “woke.”
Also, another issue is a matter of audience. Outside of the horrible men who were justifiably canceled as part of the #MeToo movement, most of the other people who have been canceled, well, just didn’t read the room. In my experience, there is usually some other factor that aggravates the situation whenever someone is “canceled.”
So, JK Rowling was far more suspectable to being successfully “canceled” than, say, Louis CK. And Louis CK is doing quite well for himself, even though he did, in my opinion, things far worse than what JK Rowling is accused of doing. But you have to give Rowling credit — she’s stuck to her guns, even though her audience loathes her as a person.
But that doesn’t stop conservatives from believing that, by definition, for the average person to be conservative is to risk having their life ruined. They think this in such an abstract manner that it’s easy for Republican shithead cocksuckers to demagogue the whole idea to the point that an already divided America gets more and more divided.
The crux of what makes it so difficult for me to talk to my Traditionalist relatives — who I love dearly — about Trump and MAGA is they are primed and ready to be “Good Germans.” They don’t really think of it in those terms, even if pressed, but when they say they “like what Trump has to say, just not how he says it” what they’re saying is they are prepared to serve the purpose of “Good Germans” in the American political system.
And from what I can garner, they have two red lines. One red line is “violence in the streets” and the only is the personal — if I get snatched up by a weaponized ICE they’re going to help get out of the concentration camp I’m cooling my heels in.
So, if it’s DeSantis not Trump who is our next POTUS, then there won’t be any political violence “in the streets” because he’s so smooth, which will leave the other, final red line of the personal. I don’t expect to get snatched off the street by ICE immediately when DeSantis is sworn in, but it’s inevitable that it will happen.
But the key thing is that fascism is very, very popular in the United States. A lot of people want a white autocratic Christian ethnostate to the point that they don’t even realize the implications of what they want. Want they want describes fascism, but they get really angry when you point this out to them.
The point is –the United States is fucking doomed. We’re either going to slide peacefully into a MAGA themed autocracy, have a civil war or have military junta. There is no middle ground and this is not an abstract to me — I’m going to inevitably cross our new MAGA autocrat, whomever that may be, and that’s going to be that.
As I’ve written before, my Traditionalist relatives look at me with concern whenever Ron DeSantis comes up in our now-rare political conversations and say, “Why do you hate Ron DeSantis?”
Let me be clear — I do not hate Ron DeSantis. I hate the MAGA Republican movement with a white hot rage equal to the center of the sun that is so powerful that it’s generating a six novel project on my part. But I don’t hate Ron DeSantis.
The reason why this is relevant is when it comes to shipping hapless undocumented immigrants to strategic sites in Blue states, DeSantis has struck political gold. It’s a very “cruelty is the point” Trump-ish thing to do and, as such plays exceedingly well with the MAGA Republican base. And, if something should happen politically to Trump, then DeSantis will cruse into the presidency and be our first autocrat.
This cruel ploy by DeSantis works so well with the base because it’s simple and plays well with their preconceived notions of evil “groomer” liberals. It’s a perfect plan for DeSantis because we wins, just by doing it. There is NO reaction on the part of Blues that he can’t credit as a win. And, if need be, MAGA will simply lie or spin whatever reaction there is so it fits their media narrative.
It’s times like these when I am reminded at how alarmed we should all be about the future of the United States. As I keep saying, we face the choices of autocracy, civil war or military junta between now and, say, spring 2025. If you have the means, I would suggest you prepare to leave the country and never look back.
The simple explanation for why MAGA Republicans are so adamant that the United State is a constitutional republic rather a democracy is it’s a form of debate nullification. It gets MAGA Republicans, who are fucking fascists, a retort against liberal-progressives who talk about how MAGA Republicans are a “threat to our democracy.”
MAGA Republicans hear this so much that they have come up with, “Oh yeah? Well fuck you, the United States isn’t a democracy in the first place, it’s a constitutional republic!” Then it becomes obvious that the two people talking can’t even agree on the terms they’re using and the conversation trails off to something else.
There is so much wrong with the growing insistence by MAGA Republicans that we can’t defend democracy because, lulz, the United States isn’t even one to begin with. They have a number of talking points thought out about all of this, everything from “Are you going to challenge the wisdom of the Founding Fathers?” to a garbled, misinterpretation of Alexis de Tocqueville.
That this is even an issue, is also something of a tell as to the agenda of MAGA Republicans. That they get so wrapped up in this dumb conflation about the nature of our Constitution tells us that they don’t believe in democracy and they want to establish a white Christian ethnostate. Or, more specifically, rather than work within the bounds of our democracy and change their policy agenda to win elections fair and square, they’re so fucking racist that they want to play lesser democratic elements of the Constitution like a xylophone so they can establish an autocracy and that will be that.
The point is — another reason why this is a tell is the idea that the United States is a “constitutional republic” is not mutually exclusive with it being a democracy. It’s both and has been, to varying degrees, since its conception. It’s only now, when MAGA Republicans are looking for some retort to evil libtards that the two equally true concepts have been muddled by MAGA Republicans’ partisan needs.
I would note that “What form of government does the United States have?” is following the same path as any number of other hot button issues where the two sides are so far as apart that they can’t agree on the basics. If you bring it up MAGA Republicans laugh at you, use a joke they heard on some fetid MAGA podcast and then you spend all your time not talking about the issue, but wading through bullshit designed to make it impossible to even debate the topic at hand in the first place.
It’s happened with gun control. It’s happened with the Green New Deal. It’s happened to a variety of topics and it’s happening with the very basic idea of the Untied States being a democracy. If that’s not a sign that at some point between now and spring 2025 we’re going to have a civil war, turn into a MAGA autocracy or have a military junta, I don’t know what is.
This is where I have to bring up the great irony of this bullshit. I have people in my family to believe “the United States isn’t a democracy.” I love them dearly, even if I’ve actively given up debating politics with them because of shit like this. The irony is that given that I’ve made it very clear that I’m not going to ever stop ranting about how much I fucking hate the MAGA Republican movement, should the United States turn into an autocracy, it’s inevitable that I’m probably going to be sent to a camp.
THEN, of course, my Traditionalist conservative relatives will sit up and take notice and have to figure out how to get me out of my concentration camp. Once things get personal — their only red line other than violence in the streets — then they will start to get upset about America no longer being a democracy. Then, of course, it will be fucking too late. This is not an abstract to me. I’m never going to be a “Good German” and any shift on the part of the United States into autocracy poses real risks for me, personally.
But my Traditionalist relatives scoff at these fears or just don’t want to talk about it. They hate the soft power of the “woke cancel culture mob” SO MUCH that they willing to give up their American birth right of democracy so they can live in a white Christian ethnostate, even if it puts my life in real danger.
Man, are we fucked. And you either get it, or you don’t. You either see the macro trends that are leading the United States towards an existential choice of autocracy, civil war or military junta or you don’t. I’m not saying I have any particular special insight — I don’t — but I am pretty good at making my abstract fears concrete.
And at the moment my biggest abstract fear is the rise of autocratic tyranny in the United States. Autocracy and fascism are very popular in the United States at the moment, with a lot of people who should know better quibbling about if the United States is a “constitutional republic” or a democracy.
So, it goes without saying that if you are a centrist in the United States at the moment, you’re complicit in the rise of autocratic fascism in the country. There is no middle ground, no room for accommodation of all views. It’s time to admit that to be a Republican in good standing is, by definition, to be a fascist pig. You don’t believe the United States is a democracy because you don’t believe in democracy, not because you think we’re actually a “constitutional republic.”
Put another way — if you’re in the news media and you feel forced to be “objective” when it comes to MAGA — you’re pretty much signing the death warrant for freedom of speech in the United States. Because that’s what’s ultimately going to happen one way or another — once Republicans are in charge again they’re coming after the free press and they’re going to do exactly what happened in Russia in the early days of Putin’s lifetime, autocratic rule.
We all may be Antifa one day.
Either MAGA friendly oligarchs will buy up any independent media that dares question the autocrat, or the state will lean on media in various ways to the point that the so-called “liberal media” will be cowed into submission. This will all happen in the context of a massive outflux of wealthy liberals to the point that by the time the process is over who knows if Hollywood will even be located in the United States anymore.
There are plenty of other places around the world that would welcome an influx of wealthy entertainment types. I’ve long speculated that Perth would be a pretty cool place for Hollywood to relocate to, even if it is in the fucking middle of nowhere.
And, honestly, I think America transitioning into an autocracy is pretty much a foregone conclusion at this point, but for one thing — Donald Trump. Is so stupid, so lazy and so often says “the quiet part out loud” that he could, unto himself, cause something akin to a Second American Civil War.
In the meantime, if you consider yourself a “centrist” you need to pick a side. The center has not held, you need to start acting like it.
I have been using Twitter long enough that I should not let people attacking me get to me, but here I am. Someone got mad at me on Twitter for saying what I always say — Blue States may be forced to leave the Union in late 2024, early 2025 when fascist Qanon MAGA Republicans steal the 2024 election. The person in question said Blue states *are* the Union.
Oh boy. Someone sure does need to get woke.
Yes, Blue States currently are the Union. That’s true. But the dynamic that forced slave states out of the Union in 1860 is the same that would force the Blue States out of the Union in 2024. The ideology is reversed, obviously, but the dynamic is the same.
Here are some reasons why we will have a civil war, starting around late 2024, early 2025.
Republicans have come to glorify political violence Something you see a lot these days within the bullshit echo chamber of the MAGA New Right is the belief that because “liberals won’t leave us alone” that they are being “driven” to extremism. There’s a lot of leading not-so-vague talk as to what all this would ultimately mean. But it’s clear that for a number of “thought leaders” within the MAGA New Right that they have accepted that at some point in the future, they’re going to have to resort to violence to get what they want.
Republicans no longer believe in democracy It is now clear that like any good fascists, Republicans no longer believe in democracy unless it’s for the specific purpose of gaining and keeping power. This view of the system they’re supposed to a part of leads them do extremely destabilizing things that help push the country to the brink.
Trump 2024 Just Trump being the 2024 nominee would, in itself, be enough to cause a civil war at some point in late 2024 – early 2025. He just has a special knack for “owning the libs” in such a way that if he stole in 2024 election and said the “quiet part outloud” that Blue States would grow so enraged that it would be they, not Red States, that left the Union and caused a Second Civil War. But Ron DeSantis is polling exceptionally well at the moment, so either Trump politically shivs him at some point, or he co-ops him, making him his VP, opening the door to DeSantis becoming America’s Putin at some point down the road a little bit.
Steve K Bannon. Bannon and his toadies are actively working to destroy the framework that weuse to administer free and fair elections. So, it’s very easy to imagine a situation where this gambit works in ways that Trump himself is too idiotic to pull off personally and it will be so egregious that, again, Blue States leave the Union and we have a Second American Civil War.
Extreme negative polarization We’re in for a bump four or so years, no matter what, because negative polarization, on a systemic level, has reached a critical mass. When one of your political parties is fascist and would rather crash the global economy instead of even appear to work for the good of the nation — you got a problem.
A lack of shared values As the big blow up on Twitter in the last 24 hours about a Stephen Colbert song and dance gag about getting vaccinated proves — we can’t even agree on what’s funny. A combination of this and negative polarization is leading to the United States being two nations, one Red, one Blue and when we get around to attempting to elect the next president, the system simply won’t be prepared for the passions it will stir up.
A potentially historic miscalculation on the part of Republicans It’s possible that, much like European powers in the lead up to WW1, when the time comes and Republicans have a choice between peacefully transitioning us into autocracy or fucking with us all so we want to take up arms, they will choose the latter not because they have to, but because they want to. It’s possible that by the 2024 — 2025 period, Republicans will see a civil war as their only choice to consolidate power, even if it’s clear that they could get everything they ever wanted within the system they so obviously loath.
SCOTUS sides with MAGA on the “Independent Legislature” concept. I really don’t know that much about this idea other than it would pretty much give MAGA free reign to ignore the popular vote and use its power over state legislatures to deny Democrats the White House for, well, forever. Once it dawns on Blues that they simply will never be allowed to take the White House again, that might be the final breaking point.
Slave states attempted to leave the Union because they felt the Free Soil movement in the guise of the Republican Party was politically acendant to the point that they would not continue to get unfettered expansion of slavery. Meanwhile, today, Blue states would leave the Union when it became clear that to remain in the Union would be to agree to a fascist autocracy.
I’m not saying this will happen, but I am saying there is a certain logic as to why when the crisis arrives in 2024, there will be three potential endgames — autocracy, civil war or military junta.
If what happened in 2020 is any indication, the first sign that we would have that something was amiss would be on the local level. Instead of people who simply do their job as Americans and do the rather perfunctory duty of certifying the win of A Democrat, this doesn’t happen. In crucial voting districts all across swing states, Bannon’s “spiritual shock troops” either refuse to certify the win of A Democrat, or they go so far as to YOLO things and switch the win to Trump. And, remember, all of this would be happening in the context of SCOTUS having agreed with the radical “independent legislature” concept that would give state legislatures total and complete control over their administration of elections.
As this happens, the tension in United States escalates day by day. The very rallying cry of MAGA in 2020 — “Stop The Steal” will be adopted by the center-Left when it becomes clear that the MAGA New Right is hell bent on brazenly stealing the 2024 election in broad daylight.
But remember, the center-Left has a very different personality than the MAGA New Right. The center-Left, for all it’s problems with “cancel culture” and being “woke” is still actually connected to reality. So, there would be a struggle between the natural inclination of centrist Liberals to let the “process work” and Leftists who would want to burn everything to the ground given how corrupted everything had become.
All of this turmoil on the local level would find elections in crucial states thrown into the political realm where MAGA state legislatures and Secretary’s of State would begin to actively ensure that A Democrat is prevented from winning. Every day between Election Day 2024 and Certification Day 2025 things would grow more and more unstable in the United States as it became clear that Bannon’s long-planned “administrative coup” was actually going to work.
There would be mass confusion. Lots of lawsuits
And, remember, if Trump is involved, as all of this is going on, he would do everything in his personal power to rile up both sides. If his ongoing, progressive cognitive decline has gotten bad enough, he might even go transactional.
It would be around this point that I could see Blue governors begin to make serious plans to leave the Union. A lot would depend on what California was willing to do. But it would definitely make sense that California would be the first state to call a Secessionist Convention in preparation of leaving the Union if the 2024 election is, in fact, stolen.
But by some point between Thanksgiving and Christmas, you could see some sort of summit of Blue Governors where they debate their plans to leave the Union if the very thing that the MAGA New Right wants — to turn the United States into an autocracy — actually happens.
And as we approached Certification Day in January 2025, the last step in the crisis would happen. If you thought Certification Day 2021 was bad, just wait until Republicans are actively going over and above what they did then when it rolls around in 2025. So, the system will have been corrupted at both the local and state level. And then if that doesn’t work, Republicans will again try to throw the election into the House and Senate to buy time, if nothing else.
So, let me be clear — anyone who thinks we’re going to have some sort of MAGA New Right revolution a la The Turner Diaries — is a fool. Any Second American Civil War we have is probably going to be started by Blue States leaving the Union out of disgust that the fix is in.
Therefore, by the time Certification Day 2025 rolls around, it could very well be a foregone conclusion that we’re going to have a pretty organized civil war. Republicans have no shame and don’t apparently care about the consequences of their actions, so, lulz, we could find ourselves in the absolute worst of worlds because not only are states actively thinking about leaving the Union around this time, but the whole process of figuring out who is POTUS will be languishing in Congress. Republicans, because they are politically blood thirsty and will cheat, will win the power struggle, but there’s a chance states will begin leaving the Union.
It won’t be deranged, individual MAGA New Right blowing stuff up in some sort of rearguard action. It’s going to be a Blue Nation verses a Red Nation. A lot of the same things that happened in the First American Civil War will happen in the second. The U.S. Military will implode as people from Blue States leave it to establish a new Blue State military.
But one thing we have to expect in late 2024 to early 2025 is a mass migration of people across the country as people no longer feel safe living in an area of the country that doesn’t fit their politics. It could be rather frightening.
If it were, God forbid, to happen, I would guess that a Second American Civil War will begin between Certification Day 2025 and Inauguration Day 2025. In other words, as Trump is being sworn in, mass chaos will have erupted across the United States.
Once the hollowed out American military turns it attention to the Blue rebellion at the behest of Trump, it won’t be too long before WMD are sized and used by both sides. Not only would America bomb itself into oblivion with its eyes wide open, but it will be done in the context of WW3 definitely breaking out across the globe because the US will be too busy imploding to ensure the continuation of the post WW2 global order.
How’s that for a New World Order.
So, here goes. Here’s how the individual states would handle A Second American Civil War, probably starting in late 2024 when it becomes clear that Reds are going to brazenly steal the election. I don’t think this is going to happen — I think we’re just going to slip peacefully into autocracy — but it is at least possible. I’m NOT going to do every state because, lulz, I don’t know the internal politics of each state well enough to do it right.
California If Blues really decide to have a National Divorce, it will be California that probably is at the forefront serving the papers. And the key issue is — war aims. I think at first the war aims of the Blues will be to simply start, say, the United States of Canada. It will only be much later in any conflict that Blues get sucked into fighting the longer-term goal of maybe establishing the United States of North America. And that would happen because Trumplandia could possible begin a Final Solution for POC within its territory and, as such, the second phase of the civil war would be one of liberation. But that’s extremely speculative on my part.
Everything will hinge on what California wants to do. If it simply wants independence for itself, that’s a lot different war than if it joins with other Blue States to establish a new, larger state. But whatever happens once the 2ACW starts, California will be the “Arsenal of Democracy.” If they want to establish a Blue Union, then California would put itself on a war footing. It would call up a few million young men and women into a new Blue Army and away we go. A lot would depend on the state of the US Military, but the case could be made that it might implode, leaving the individual states with the ability to fend for themselves.
California would quickly secure Oregon and Washington then swoop through the plains states to link up with major Blue States in the old Upper Midwest. They would crash into Texas in the south and that would be a Battle Royale, though it’s possible because Texas is shifting blue that Texas might simply implode into an intra-state civil war and Blues could secure the state a lot easier than one might otherwise expect.
But the point is — as goes California, so goes the Blue Union cause.
Texas Texas is a state that is really difficult to game out because while MAGA has turned into a Red stronghold, on the ground, the state is shifting Blue long term. As such, when our national politics finally collapses and we’re dealing with the existential it’s possible that Texas will simply implode. There could be a massive intra-state civil war that leaves it open to Blue Union forces from the West to swoop in and take it over. Or, at least, a lot of it over. But between when the civil war starts and when Blue Union troops come to the rescue, we could all be talking about the Siege of Austin as MAGA surrounds that particular blue dot in a purple state and want to wipe it off the face of the earth.
In a sense, Texas probably has the most to loose from a 2ACW. Texas would probably be the site of a huge amount of fighting as the difference between the Blue shift in the state’s practical politics slams up against the autocratic state government. Or, put another way, Texas is a lot less stable than you might think. It will likely be the source of a huge amount of domestic political refugees who will either endup in camps, or simply flee the state altogether, only to return when (hopefully) Blues win the civil war and there’s a Second Reconstruction.
Oregon The thing about this state is it’s ripe for a huge clusterfuck. Of all the places in the Union in the lead up to any potential 2ACW, Oregon is the state I could most likely see some sort of “Troubles” taking place. There could be a pretty bloody Battle of Portland as all the crazed Far Right Militia’s swoop down on the city and decide to end the “Antifa Problem” once and for all. Then, of course, there’s pretty good chance that all of that will be for naught when California troops come from the south and consolidate Blue control over the state. Not that it won’t come at a very, very blood cost. But California is just too powerful not to be able to seize both Oregon and Washington in the early stages of any 2ACW. Even if California simply wants to go it alone, the mass chaos of Oregon might pull them into the state for some sort of peacekeeping mission.
The Plains States Outside of Texas, the Plaines states may see their fates during a 2ACW largly out of their hands. They could shift from Blue to Red and back again as the two sides fight it out. They have small populations and economies and if California wants to link up with Blue States in the old Upper Midwest, then, they may see their extremely Red politics change in a rather abrupt, violent manner. These states are an example of why it would be so dumb for Red States to want a civil war — the values of small plains states are being forced upon Blue States and Blues aren’t really doing anything about it. But if there was a civil war, the Red Plains States would be forced to change their ways rather quickly.
The Old CSA (At least some of it.) At first, a number of states of the old CSA would explode into joy if there was a 2ACW. States like Mississippi, Alabama and South Carolina would have you believe they are already half way out of the Union as it is because of the evil libtard “groomers” and, as such, if Blue States left the Union the populations of the old CSA states would be very, very happy. But. And this is a big but, as the war progressed and everything went to shit there would be a natural inclination on the part of white Christians in these states to make POC scape goats. There would be a rapid radicalization of the politics of these states to the point that something akin to a race war might break out. Or, if not that, then at least Nazi-style concentration camps would be established with the aim of enacting a Final Solution once and for all. This would, in turn freak the Blue States out to the point that even if they were free of the United States, they might rejoin the battle simply to stop the Final Solution from happening. This is all extremely speculative, of course, but I’m simply gaming out what already exists and then assume the worse.
Florida I used to think that Florida would break up into about three states, given how diverse it is, but no more. I think it would be a fully autocratic state under DeSantis — even if he was POTUS at this point — and a lot of young men from Florida would face up against young men (and women) from California as the war progressed and got worse and worse for everyone concerned. The already fucked up politics of Florida would grow significantly more radical to the point that it was a one party fascist state.
Georgia The thing about Georgia is Atlanta. If there was a 2ACW, then it’s possible that within the state it would be Atlanta versus everyone else. Atlanta would be a very Blue stronghold and the rest of the state would be so Red that it could all get very bloody. Of course, Blue forces from outside the state could swoop in at some point and help take stabilize the situation.
Virginia As I’ve said the last time I wrote this scenario up, Virginia is two states that hate each other. Of all the states of the Union that might find destruction as part of a 2ACW, Virginia is at the top of the list — even more so than Texas. The state would collapse into coups and counter coups. The rural Red parts of the state would go all Pol Pot on the Blue parts of the state and there would be a lot of political scores settled by extremely radicalized rural Reds who wanted to make sure drag queens of the woke cancel culture mob could never teach their kids critical race theory again. I wish I was joking or exaggerating, but I’m not.
Heartland The so-called “American Heartland” is where the worst fighting of any 2ACW would take place. States like Ohio and Indiana would be diehard supporters of Trumplandia and they just would not go down without a fight. It would be the type of fighting not seen since the end of WW2. And it would be happening in what was once the most stable country in the world. As I’ve mentioned, a lot would depend on what Blue war aims were. If they just wanted to start the USoC, then my dark fears probably won’t happen. But if, for some reason, those war aims change and the issue becomes bringing the US back together again (probably with Canada by this point) then, well, all bets are off. It would be a very bloody pitched battle.
New York City
A 2ACW might be a tale of two cities for NYC. On one hand, there’s a chance NYC could become something akin to a Free City and on the other it could get nuked by Trumplandia. Any 2ACW would probably see the city flooded with refugees, maybe even including yours truly. But one thing is for sure — the long term tension between Upstate New York and NYC will grow in the event of a 2ACW to the point that NYC may break away politically in some way. Update New York has a lot of room for political refugees and, as such, you could see the population of some of the Update New York cities might balloon as a result.
New England I think in the even of a 2ACW that New England would be flooded with political refugees to an unprecedented extent. People fleeing all parts of Trumplandia would go to New England, potentially in hopes of getting across the border to Canada. Should the Blue Union unite with Canada, then, of course, that dynamic would change.
In closing, I would note three things. There’s not going to be a 2ACW if Blues don’t have any leadership. They currently have no effective leadership, so a lot of abrupt heroes would have to bubble up to the surface once it became clear that Blues had to leave the Union. Also, all of what I’ve described above has to be taken into the context of very real possibility that WMD would be used by both sides as the war progressed. And, remember, if the United States is too busy bombing itself into oblivion, then the prospect of a “Great Reset” in the guise of WW3 is a very, very real possibility.
While MAGA Republicans and the Nazis share a lot in common, there is one big difference between the two strains of fascism. The Nazis were an expansionistic form of fascism, while MAGA is one bent on retrenchment. “Bring the boys home” and all that.
If you game out the ominous idea that the insane Qanon conspiracy theory could very well engulf the entire Republican Party, what does that mean whenever Republicans gain power and and promptly turn the United States into an autocracy?
Well, it gets pretty dark pretty quick. What MAGA Republicans are shooting for — and they’re very open about this — is an “illiberal democracy” similar to what is found in, say, Hungary and Turkey. They sell this vision to otherwise reluctant traditional conservatives who want the goodies of fascism without all the parts that make them blanch.
But the is a fatal flaw with this “fascism light” concept that MAGA Republicans are so intent in getting traditionalist conservatives to believe — race. And if you work on the self-evident believe that Qanon is pretty much just an anti-Semitic conspiracy theory updated for the social media age and American sensibilities then it seems that should we go the autocracy route instead of Second American Civil War route that two things may happen before it’s all over with.
One would be the emptying of the cities Khmer Rouge -style because that’s where all the evil liberals live. The other would be massive genocide against fascism’s usual suspects.
Trump is obviously too stupid and lazy to actually organize such behavior but he definitely is in a position to get the ball rolling and then very dark macro forces would take care of the rest. I’ve long believed that because of the population of the United States being so much bigger that MAGA could endup being directly responsible for the deaths of more people than WW2 — most of them Americans. Though, of course, that may be a bit of an exaggeration — some of the dead would come as part of WW3 happening when the United States abruptly pulled out of global affairs because it was too busy having a MAGA Qanon holocaust.
All of that sounds very, very hysterical. I get it. But it’s definitely something to think about going forward.
So, tonight, at the very end of Trump’s deranged rally in Ohio, a number of people near the front of the crowd were raising their hands in Trump’s direction. It looked like they were doing the Nazi Roman salute, but the way they had their heads down, I initially thought they were maybe praying as Trump did some sort of insane benediction.
Form….…follows function
Well, turns out — would you believe — that what they were doing is sticking out one finger in a “One” gesture that has something to do with Qanon. Given how closely this gesture resembles the Nazi salute…oh boy. And given that the whole Qanon bullshit is pretty much an modern day anti-Semitic conspiracy theory the implications of this are pretty dark.
As I keep saying, I still think that ultimately MAGA will result in more deaths than the Nazis. I hope I’m wrong — I almost always am — but if the MAGA faithful all begin to make a One Salute whenever they see Herr Trump…well, that’s not exactly the greatest sign for our future.
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