Tag: Autocrats Never Lose

The Rise Of The American Fourth Reich: The Cancer of Antisemitism Is Growing On American Politics

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

I can’t predict the future. But there are some alarming trends in American politics at the moment that make me sit up and take notice. Take the rise of mainstream antisemitism within MAGA ranks. There is a very dark scenario that writes itself involving a Republican House refusing to raise the debt celling in 2023 and, as such, crashing the global economy.

That, in turn, puts America in 2023 in a very similar situation to Germany in 1933. Let the United States marinate in an extended deep recession for a few years and by 2024 it’s possible that if not Trump, then someone nastier — and younger — than he is could pop up and away we go.

We end up in something literally akin to an American Fourth Reich.

The issue for me is, there seems to be a lot of slack in the system for an increase in support for antisemitism. Now that people like Ye and Nick Fuentes are being given oxygen for their hate and not a lot is being done about it for the very reason nothing is ever really done about Trump, well, oh boy. Are we fucked. There could very well come a tipping point where things we never imagined possible in the United States — especially when it comes to the state of Jews here — could become a very cold, hard reality.

That sounds very hysterical, I know, but still. The conditions are definitely developing for something very, very dark to happen in the United States between now and spring 2025.

And, remember, I still believe that if there is a National Divorce, it won’t be Red States who do it, but rather Blue States who serve the papers. And it won’t be rolling political violence as predicted by Barbara F. Walter — it would be full blown secession at the state level.

But nothing suggests we’re going to have a civil war at the moment — I just don’t think Blues have it in the to do such a thing. Blues will bend a knee to autocratic Nazis MAGA fascism and that will be that. A shit ton of wealthy American liberals will flee the country and before you know it the existing ICE infrastructure will be weaponized and, lulz, there you go. That will be my fate at some point after 2025.

I guess I need to write a breakout first novel so I can flee the country, huh.

A Moment Of Truth

The alarming mainstreaming of antisemitism within MAGA ranks is something that if it continues is going to force a moment of truth for anti-anti-MAGA Jewish conservatives. At the moment, this particular vocal subset of MAGA complicit people are living in complete denial.

They generally support the fascist agenda of MAGA, but they can’t bring themselves to admit it. So they get really work up about the tactics of the anti-MAGA (Blue) political movement and qubble about the specifics of the dynamic between Blue and Red.

And, really, from what I can tell from what I read on Twitter, these anti-anti-MAGA Jewish conservative intellectuals would be more than happy to go full throated MAGA if things came to that. But, ironically, just as they are moving towards that decision, we have Ye and Nick Fuentes having dinner with ding-dong Trump.

Speaking of Trump, the issue of what will happen to Javanka should antisemitism consumes MAGA in the whole is going to be very, very interesting. In fact, I would even go so far as to say that the status of Javanka is something of the canary in the coalmine. If they get pushed out of the movement then that could be it — that could be the moment when anti-anti-MAGA Jewish people have to fish or cut bait when it comes to MAGA.

Fucking MAGA autocratic fascist.

That is going to be surreal to watch, should it happen.

I think what I’m most concerned about is not so much Trump but his successor. It’s also easy to imagine that if MAGA really does transform into American Nazism that some American Hitler might bubble up to the surface who will do some of nastier things to Jews — and people like me! — that Trump just doesn’t have to mental ability or discipline to pull off.

What makes all of this even more curious is we’ve been told for about 80 years now “Never Again.” And, yet, here we are — the same Goddamn thing that happened with Germany in the 1930s is happening in the United States. Or, at least, we seem to be drifting towards a similar dire situation. Of course, the key difference between MAGA and the Nazis is MAGA is movement of retraction of power while the Nazis were expansionistic.

The point is — I’m very alarmed. And it sure would make me feel a lot better if anti-anti-MAGA conservative Jewish intellectuals would actively join the anti-MAGA movement. It definitely will be interesting to see if that ever happens and how, exactly, it will go down if it does.

The Era Of Viable Political Ambiguity Is Ending

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

For way too long, there have been people who have refused to pick a side in the United States. They’ve just thrown up their hands and said “both sides” whenever people like me bring up the latest racist, misogynistic, bigoted thing that MAGA has done. They do this usually because they very sympathetic to MAGA, but aren’t prepared to fully align themselves with the fascist movement.

With the rise of antisemitic MAGA, however, MAGA is lurching closer and closer to being just another strain of Nazism, updated for modern sensibilities. As such, the Traditionalist and self-avowed “independants” who simply refuse to pick a side simply are fooling themselves.

Either you’re MAGA or you’re not. Either your an American Nazi or you’re not. There is no middle ground. Pick a side or a side will be chosen for you. The process of ending the perceived wiggle room between MAGA and anti-MAGA hasn’t finished just yet, but it’s getting there.

When it happens, I think a lot of Jewish anti-anti-MAGA conservatives are going to be in for a rude awakening because they’re pretty much going to be purged from MAGA. It seems pretty obvious to me that anti-anti-MAGA Jewish conservatives are living in a state of denial. They just can’t process that the very thing everyone keeps ranting about never letting happen again…is happening again. And it broad fucking daylight.

I can’t predict the future, but it’s not too difficult to sketch out a scenario between now and, say, spring 2025 when essentially the choice that everyone faces won’t be MAGA or anti-MAGA….but whether or not we want to live in an American Fourth Reich.

I am well aware of how hysterical that sounds, but sometimes the truth sounds hysterical until your mind is able to process what is going on. And, of course, there are plenty — plenty — of ways that we might, at last, find some sort of off ramp. But my bet is any off ramp will be a false victory — we’ll just punt our macro problems down the road an election cycle or two.

The issue is — America is pretty much fucked. Either we turn into the Fourth Reich or we have a civil war. That’s it. Those are our choices between now and spring 2025, barring something I can’t predict. There is, of course, the possibility of some sort of military junta, but that is only an abstract possibility in my mind.

It will be interesting to see how things work out. Macro trends are not on America’s side.

We Are All STILL Very Naive

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

I believe 2023 is going to suck politically. It’s going to suck so bad that we’re going to look back upon 2022 like we now do the year 2017. In 2017, we were all so wrapped up in the legacy of post-Watergate Washington scandals that we assumed Mueller would fix all our Trumplandia problems and we could have some sort of magical Obama third term.

In other words — I believe Biden will probably be impeached a few times. I believe that any accountability that Trump is held to will only make him stronger. I believe that, in the end, Trump is either going to turn us into a Russian-style autocracy (at least) or we’re going to have a civil war that starts between Election Day 2024 and Certification Day 2025.

I believe all this because the macro trends are just not in our favor. We’re an empire in decline and the tectonic forces at work are probably going to force Blues to make an existential choice of bending a knee to autocracy or leaving the Union.

I don’t really want a National Divorce, but on an abstract basis, it definitely does make a lot of sense. I say this as someone who loves America and am quite content to keep the country together like it is, thank you very much. But if the choice is between the Fourth Reich and Blue States attempting to leave the Union, well, then, things start to get a bit more complicated, now don’t they.

It just seems to me that we’re headed towards a very, very, very dark future, it’s just the specifics haven’t been worked out yet. I’m of the opinion that at the moment we’re probably going to turn into the Fourth Reich, America will leave NATO and WW3 will happen as a result. In the end, MAGA will be directly responsible for just as many people as those that died in WW2.

Good luck!

My Only Complaint About ‘Post’

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

I’m of an age where I’m generally indifferent about a lot of things that used to bother me — I just don’t have time for that shit, as they say. So, when I got invite to the new Twitter clone “Post” I was mildly interested to see what it was like.

And, after having used it a few days, I can honestly say I really like it. It’s spare, but has a lot of potential and is small enough that it still has that new social media platform smell to it. There are some quirks, but nothing so difficult as to make it unusable.

Once it gets some of the basic features that Twitter has, I could definitely see myself using it so much that I don’t really use Twitter that much.

But.

The problem with Post is not the service, but the sense one gets using it that a lot of its initial users see it as a liberal-progressive “safe space.” That is not bad unto itself, but when the service is just a bunch of people agreeing with each other it can become boring.

But there are two reasons to think I’m jumping the gun a little bit and things aren’t going to be as bad as you might think.

One is, Twitter is already so siloed when it comes to political discourse, it’s not like there’s all that much real debate going on. In fact, in my experience, in recent days, the only actual debate between people who disagree comes from when one side or the other notices something from the other side and retweets it into their echo chamber.

Otherwise, the two sides don’t talk to each other about politics on Twitter.

Meanwhile, another thing that Post has in its favor when it comes to not being boring is the anti-MAGA liberal-progressive alliance is so diverse and fractious that people who agree in general about the dangers of MAGA that there is still a lot of room for debate.

I suppose what really bothers me is not so much that Post is going to be boring as it is the possibility that it’s going to be populated with a bunch of smug people who think they have it all figured out and, as such, don’t build up the intellectual antibodies associated with robust debate.

Such smugness is really fucking annoying, regardless of your political leanings. But I fear what’s really going on is if Post becomes popular then it’s yet another common element of society that has been destroyed and segmented into Red and Blue.

If that’s not a “Not great, Bob,” trend, I don’t know what is.

Are We Really Doing This? Are We Really Going to Just Slouch Our Way Into A Fourth Reich?

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

The fact that antisemitism is going mainstream within MAGA ranks in broad daylight is alarming to say the least. The same dynamic that allowed Trump to come perilously close to destroying American democracy is now at play with the rise of antisemitic MAGA.

Everyone with the actual power to end it is too big a coward to do anything about it. Or they’re silent and hope it all just goes away. But barring something I can’t predict, it’s not going away. I’m not Jewish, but just like how Roe v. Wade was a firebreak for reproductive rights, the taboo against accepting antisemitism into the mainstream without consequences is firebreak against kooks like me getting caught up in the same dragnet that would get Jewish people if things really got that bad.

As such, I have an existential self-interest in making sure antisemitism stays in the shadows where it belongs.

But it definitely seems like we may have crossed the Rubicon. Things have suddenly begun to get dark and growing darker. All of this is happening in the very curious context of Trump having a Jewish daughter and children. How ding-dong squares that particular circle is something I struggle with a lot.

And I would go so far as to say keep an eye on the status of Javanka. If MAGA turns on them in any big way, oh boy. Things really are dark. What is happening in American politics at the moment is very, very surreal.

But I suppose the case could be made that form follows function. If you country has a fascism problem, it’s inevitable that you’re going to have a antisemitism problem, too.

And, like I said, this is all happening in the context of no one being willing to do anything about it because of one person — Donald Trump.

Anti-Anti-MAGA Jewish Conservatives Face An Existential Political Choice As MAGA Transitions To American Nazism

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

This is a very delicate thing to broach, but as antisemitism goes mainstream within MAGA ranks, we need to start to talk about the political fate of Jewish conservatives. I’m not Jewish — even though growing up I always wanted to be Jewish or black — but I am reading up on the rise of Nazism in Germany and the continued reluctance of a lot of American Jewish conservatives to join the broad anti-MAGA democratic coalition is alarming.

It would greatly help the cause of American democracy if conservative American Jewish people who aren’t currently #NeverTrumpers would stop supporting Trump and MAGA because, well, the movement is growing more and more hostile to Jewish people.

Why this “come to Jesus” (wink) moment hasn’t happened yet is very curious. But I think it’s definitely something to look out for. Whenever it happens, it’s probably going to happen a lot later than it should and could be very nasty and jarring.

The way it might ultimately happen will be not that Jewish conservatives leave MAGA, but, rather, they will be purged from even being anti-anti-MAGA. There may come a tipping point when MAGA is actively going out of its way to be hostile to even otherwise extremely sympathetic Jewish conservatives.

But, let me be clear — I can’t predict the future. Maybe the alarming rise of antisemitism in MAGA will abait and we will drift towards an autocracy more like Turkey or Hungary than Nazi Germany.

I’m still very alarmed, though. No good will come of this.

‘If You Ain’t Got Haters, You Ain’t Poppin’– My Growing MAGA Hate Followers on Twitter

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

I don’t know what to make of this. In dribs and drabs, I’m beginning to get more and more MAGA “hate followers” who obviously only follow me because they want to keep tabs on people like me.

I don’t know what to make of this development. In a way, I guess, it’s flattering? Maybe? If they hate more or not, at least they’re giving me their time and attention, which is something.

My only fear, of course, is there might be some sort of sinister second phase to this particular development that I don’t know about or can’t expect. But I think, for the time, that would be overthinking things.

The whole thing is humorous and innocuous as far as I can tell. It’s a lulz. So what, they hate my politics and I hate theirs. As long as they don’t trolls me, then I don’t see any problem.

Now, obviously, some of these MAGA people following me do so because of confirmation basis — they think people like me hate them and so they want to see people like me…hate them. I don’t really hate THEM, I hate their POLITICS. But people who follow me for such a reason are extremely clueless and unself-aware. They think they can be a part of American MAGA Nazism without, well, having to deal with the consequences of being the member of a Nazi variant.

I say this as someone who if I would just become MAGA would, on a personal basis, find a lot of benefit. I would have an extensive support group of MAGA people and my relationship with my direct family members would be A LOT better.

But fuck that as they say.

Same Same, But Different: MAGA As American Nazism

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

I’ve seen enough — MAGA is American Nazism. Or, put another way, the conditions are there for us to look back after all and said and done and realize that they signs were all there that MAGA would ultimately do as much damage to humanity as the Nazis did.

For the time being, MAGA remains a nebulous hodged podge of hate united by devoted to one man — ding-dong Donald Trump. And because of that there are still a number of different ways this could all end up.

One is Trump either is defeated by Ron DeSantis or something else forces him into political retirement and we go more of a Turkey or Hungary route. We’ll still be an autocratic illiberal “democracy” but we won’t suffer some of the fascist excesses that I fear might happen. Things will be more gradual. It won’t be until 10 or so years into DeSantis’ reign that it will become clear that we’re going to end up a lot more like Putin’s Russia that we could possibly imagine now.

Then there is the very dark Trump Endgame.

Actually there are a number of different scenarios associated with Trump. One is, Trump, unto himself, starts a civil war and we bomb ourselves into oblivion as Blue States and Red States fight it out. This Second American Civil War might happen for two reasons.

One would be Republicans steal the 2024 election in such a brazen manner that Blue States decide to bounce. The OTHER way we might have a civil war is Trump wins fair and square, but his second term agenda is so fascist, so radical that…Blue States decide to bounce.

Or, I suppose, Trump manages NOT to start a civil war, gets into office and we all wait to see how his equally bonkers and autocratic veep is able to do what once president that Trump was too stupid and lazy to do.

But having said all that, the fact remains — MAGA and Nazism are identical, at least in my mind. I find it hilarious how there are so many well meaning MAGA cocksuckers who are surprised by such comparisons and they are very heartfelt, earnest and patronizing in there efforts to talk to me. I’m sure there were similar Nazis back in the late 1920s and early 1930s as the Nazis grew in power. They often say things like, “Why do they hate us?” Or they get all touchy-feeling and act like it’s all a simple misunderstanding.

Well, fuck that.

There’s going to come a point when if you an earnest, well meaning MAGA person or one of those comically clueless anti-anti-MAGA people that you’re going to have to have a come to Jesus moment one way or another. You’re either going to have to go all-in with MAGA (Nazism) or you’re going to have to turn your back on it all.

There won’t be this fuzy, gray area where you think you have plausible deniability about if you’re a fucking American Nazi or not. Either you are or you aren’t.

We’re careening towards a very dark, very turbulent future where the sides will be just as clearly marked as they were in the 1930s and 1940s. No more quibbling or dodging what’s going on — are you a MAGA Nazi or are you not?

Is America Set To Become The Fourth Reich Beginning In 2024 – 2025?

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

I can not predict the future. In fact, I’m almost always, always wrong. But I am growing more and more alarmed by the demostrable instability in the United States as we careen into the 2024 presidential campaign.

The idea that malignant ding-dong Trump is warming to the siren call of antisemitism in the guise of incel MAGA superfan Nick Fuentes is definitely a “Not great, Bob” moment in modern American politics. That Trump — who has a Jewish daughter he loves so bad that he apparently wants to marry her if he could — would listen to an antisemite like Fuentes is both alarming and perplexing.

It’s a real head scratcher, that.

But it does align with my personal belief that we all way, way overestimate Trump’s abstract cognitive abilities. He is nothing more than a malignant Chancy Gardner from Being There. That’s it — he’s dumb, lazy and pretty much what you see is what you get.

His political acumen is nothing more than a grunt. All of this hidden, of course, because he doesn’t have to do anything but play himself and the bonkers racist misogynistic white Christian hordes will continue to support him because he’s nothing more than a vessel, an avatar for their rage against the browning of America.

He’s not a Great Man of history because he just rides the wave of history, he doesn’t direct it like, say, someone like Hitler might. If Trump was a Great Man, he would be cruising into his third term at the moment, consolidating power ever more tightly along the way.

But, as it is, Trump is kind of limping along, listening to antisemites and ranting about how the “woke cancel culture mob” is out to get him and all other God fearing people. Ugh.

I simply can not figure out if Trump’s historical and political purpose is to simply be a transitional figure that guides America in to fascist autocracy or if he’s supposed to be the reason, unto himself, that we have a Second American Civil War.

It really could go either way.

At the moment, I still lean towards the peaceful establishment of an American Fourth Reich. There will be a lot of grumbling on Twitter — if it still exists at that point — about various Blue states leaving the Union…but in the end, Blue states just don’t have it in them. They’ll bend a knee to autocratic, antisemitic MAGA fascism and at least 1 million wealthy liberals will “vote with their feet” the moment we realize after Election Day 2024 what’s about to happen.

I say this believing that the CONDITIONS exist for a full-fledged National Divorce and, as such, Second American Civil War. That would, of course, prompt a Third World War and the DPRK probably lobing a few H-bombs in the direction of the United States as well.

I know — I KNOW — that sounds hysterical at the moment, but I’m just using existing trends and extrapolating them to their logical conclusion around 2024 – 2025.

Anyway, I suppose something could happen to at least punt all this down the road a little bit, maybe yet another POTUS election cycle. I have a novel I’d like to sell and see on the shelves, so I definitely have a vested interest in their NOT being a 2ACW.