The thing about all the alarming shit going on in the United States right now is it’s happening in broad daylight. We are all being very naïve if we think that it Can’t Happen Here.
Because it can.
After a final death rattle, it’s very possible that at some point after 2024, when we have our next Republican president, the United States is going to transition into an MAGA fascist autocratic state. What’s worse, there’s a real chance that we won’t settle somewhere around Turkey or Hungary but rather go further down the fascist spectrum to Russia or Nazi Germany.
And here’s where things really get dark.
Given the size and diversity of America’ population, if things really got bad, the size of the number of people that our new fascist overlords would go after is awe inspiring. We’re talking at least 40 million people might be at risk of “elimination” by the MAGA fascists if they really decided to get into it.
Throw in that WW3 would likely happen and maybe a few DPRK H-bombs being lobbed our way and it would be a massive clusterfuck. Or, put another way, once the process of Nazification of America began, who knows where it would end or how many people would die?
All of this is happening in a very conspicuous manner. We’re watching the rise of fascist MAGA antisemitism right before our eyes — as the growing coterie of antisemites who seem to hang out with Trump at the moment.
There are no easy answers. I can’t predict the future. But I would suggest you start to figure out what you believe in and what you are willing to risk your life and scared honor for in the real world. No more just getting mad on Twitter. We all may face astonishing trials and tribulations in the real world once the United States turns into a fascist MAGA state.
The other option being, of course, a civil war, which isn’t so great either.
You hear a lot of chatter about this or that thing on Twitter a lot of times, so the idea that the “votes aren’t there” for Kevin McCarthy to become Speaker should probably be taken with a grain of salt. As I’ve written before, I think in the end, there might be a bit of a kerfuffle but ultimately McCarthy becomes speaker and proceeds to impeach a lot of people inside the Biden Administration.
But let’s waste some time and really think about the prospect of Trump becoming Speaker of the House.
The first thing to remember is just because a bunch of people fear Trump might do it, doesn’t mean he has the abstract cognitive ability to actually do such a thing. Trump is dumb and simple. His political instincts are extremely simple. They’re a grunt generated by whatever out of the bowels of the Far Right.
So, while yes, it would make a light of nightmarish sense for Trump to swoop in and become Speaker if McCarthy can’t summon the votes at the required time….I really have a lot of doubts he would do it. Or even that his poor peabrain could even comprehend the strategy necessary to pull it off.
Now, let’s get to the issue of if Trump could actually BE Speaker. Apparently, the idea of a non-member being Speaker of the House is one of those things where because the Constitution doesn’t say it can’t happen…it could very well happen. There is no specific exclusion as to someone who isn’t a House member being speaker.
The more ominous interpretation of this situation is when shit like Trump becoming Speaker happens…it’s a death rattle for the traditional norms associated with our Constitutional (Democratic) Republic. Trump fucking with the Constitution by doing something that isn’t expressly forbidden is very much something a far more astute autocrat might attempt.
But Trump, like I said, is a moron with a peabrain so…the idea that Trump could do even such a basic autocratic play is very, very debatable.
So, what if Trump did become Speaker, if only for 100 days as Steve Bannon has suggested. Then what?
Well, it would be a complete and total shitshow, not seen since the worst days of Trumplandia. I could see Trump having one specific purpose for being Speaker — impeaching Biden and Harris. I could further see him — if he somehow could manage the mental energy to think like this — ranting about how Texas and other Red States should leave the Union if the Senate didn’t impeach Biden and Harris so he could become POTUS again early.
Such a scenario is both hysterical, fantastical AND possible. It’s easy to imagine Trump using secession of Red States as just a one-off rhetorical flourish and before you know it Texas has one foot out the Union.
I just don’t see any of this happening. It might be interesting in the House for a few hours as McCarthy struggles to get the 218 votes he needs…but he’ll ultimately get them. God help us all if he doesn’t a Trump manages to become Speaker.
Here are some of the people who might get impeached by the Republican House, no matter who is Speaker.
President Biden It’s pretty clear to me that a Republican House will be so full of spite and rage and bloodlust for revenge that it’s very possible they may accidently on purpose impeach Biden for no apparent reason in the early days of 2023. It will be so transparent as to what is going on that House Republicans are going to do severe political damage to themselves. But it won’t matter — that political damage would only matter if we were a functioning democracy. But we’re no longer a functioning democracy, we’re in between autocracy and democracy — in other words, an “anocracy.”
There are at least two reasons why Biden will be impeached. One is, of course, his wastrel son Hunter Biden. The other is the “border crisis.” The big issue is will these be two seperate impeachments so Democrats will not longer have Trump being impeached twice as a talking point, or if these two issues will be fused together into one event.
At the moment, I honestly don’t know. There’s always a chance that MAGA Republicans will impeach Biden THREE times, for two reasons. They both scream at the top of their lungs that Biden is the only president to be impeached three times and at the same time they can, expo facto say it’s no big deal that Trump was impeached twice.
Veep Harris I have no idea why House Republicans will impeach Harris, but they’ll think of something. Just the idea that they could somehow impeach and convict Biden and Harris in quick succession is enough to give them all a boner and they have no self control so they’re going to do it at some point between 2023 and 2025.
DHS Secretary Mayorkas As I understand it, there’s already a move afoot by House Republicans to hit the ground running impeaching Mayorkas for his handling of the “border crisis.” So, there’s every reason to believe that he’s going to be impeached at some point between 2023 and 2025.
HHS Secretary Becerra This is a bit more speculative, but I could see that once the impeachment counter-revolution gets going that House Republicans will set their sights on Becerra for something connected to “gender affirming” care of minors. That seems like just the type of culture war edge issue that MAGA House Republicans would want to wallow in for a few months to prove a point. I could also see a potential impeachment article surrounding the Biden Administration’s handling of COVID — even though it was Trump who fucked that particular situation up. Who cares about facts when you have lies?
Education Secretary Cardona This is also rather speculative, but once the monster of impeachment is unleashed, House Republicans may go after Cordona on the nebulous charge of encouraging “critical race theory” in schools — even if this is total bullshit. They just want to be able to hold hearings where they rant about CRT for hours on end. It will juice the base while “owning” the libs.
FBI Director Wray If this happens, it will be a prime example of how wrapped up in their own bullshit MAGA House Republicans will be once they have power. Wray is ON THEIR SIDE and they will still come after him because something something Deep State.
Attorney General Garland This is obvious — MAGA Republicans are so blinded by their anger over the Mar-a-Lago raid that they want to impeach Garland for approving it, despite it being totally justified given what Trump did.
There could be a few Federal judges that spark MAGA ire that will be impeached as well.
Now that I’m just about to leave the delusional phase of developing and writing a novel and am about to start thinking a lot more clear eyes about getting published traditionally, I’m having to face a lot of cold hard facts. One of those cold, hard facts is for all of my talk about how I think we MIGHT have a civil war, I’m living my life as if we’re probably going to slip into autocracy.
If I honestly thought we were having a civil war in late 2024, early 2025, I probably would be working towards something other than selling my first novel. I say this because even if I stick the landing and sell my first novel in, say, 2024, usually a novel’s post-production is a year….which would cause my novel to be coming out just about when we’re all going to be trying to avoid dying in a civil war.
So, for all my hysterical doom and gloom about a civil war, I don’t really think one is going to happen. I really want to go full speed ahead with this novel and so I have to wilfully ignore all the signs that the United States may collapse into anarchy before the damn thing can hit bookshelves.
I can’t predict the future and all my attempts to predict the future are just my gut reaction to macro trends. At the moment, we’re still too far out for me to be able to game out if we’re going to have a civil war, transition peacefully into an autocracy or live under a military junta. I just don’t know.
All I do know is we can’t keep punting our problems down the road. I suppose, if I’m lucky, that might be want happens. I stick the landing with this first novel, I sell it and it comes out at some point 2025….all while we magically punt the existential crisis we face down the road four more years.
That’s the best case scenario relative to me and these six novels I’m working on. I’m not getting any younger, though, which sucks. I’ll be in my mid-50s, probably, before I really get to enjoy the fruits of all my hard work if things really go as well as I hope. All my peers will be checking their watches, thinking about retirement and I’ll be like, “Let’s rock n roll!”
The amount of liberal adoration that Bob Mueller got during his ill-fated investigation into Trump is embarrassing in hindsight. We were all so wrapped up in the post Watergate narrative that was solidified by Whitewater and Ken Starr that we were completely and totally oblivious to what was really going on.
Special Counsel Jack Smith
In a sense, the Mueller investigation was the best thing that could have happened to Trump because liberals were able to channel their alarm over Trumplandia into the idea that at any moment it would be “Mueller Time.”
It wasn’t until that was all over that we had to sit up and take notice as to how fucked we are. Trump was and is totally and completely above the law. He is so above the law that now that we have ANOTHER Special Counsel, we all in something of a clusterfuck.
The reason is — if Jack Smith is who we thought Bob Mueller was and indicts Trump, the “fun” has just begun. Any criminal accountability for Trump will only make the MAGA base cling to him tighter. Trump wins the nomination and, if need be, steals the 2024 election in such a brazen manner that he forces Blue States to decide, on an existential basis, if they’re going to be a knee to autocratic fascist MAGA or not.
So, in a sense, all paths in Jack Smith’s Choose Your Own Adventure future leads to Trump pretty much single-handedly either transitioning the United States into a Russia-style autocracy or causing a civil war. It’s a very damned-if-you-d0-damned-if-you-don’t situation. I suppose you could say that if Smith slow walks any indictment of Trump then there’s a chance that DeSantis might at least cause our transition into autocratic MAGA fascism to be peaceful.
That’s a very “Not great Bob,” situation all around.
I suppose the point is — as long is Trump is around, America is fucked. Or, put another way, as long as he’s around the risk of civil war is greater than it might be otherwise. We’re still fucked – and might still have a civil war with or without Trump — but even though he’s not a Great Man, he is still able to cause a lot problems. He is a chaos agent caused by the browning of America combined with GenZ’s changing views on gender and accountability. Throw in the Soft Singularity of social media….and, oh boy. Man, are we fucked.
There are just no simple answers as to what to do about Trump. Barring aliens landing on the White House front lawn, Republicans are going to win the 2024 election and we will face the choice of autocracy, civil war or military junta. We can’t just keep punting all of our problems down the road anymore. Things are going to come to a head in 2024 – 2025 one way or another.
So, in a sense, I think Smith should just go ahead and indict Trump and let the chips fall where they may. At least he would go down fighting. It’s better to metaphorically die on your feet than live on your knees a slave.
The thing about trying to understand what it means to be “woke” is the two sides see the concept so differently — and its use has become so loaded — that it’s very, very difficult to pin down exactly what the fuck it actually means in real terms.
For people on the center-Right, the term “woke” is a dog whistle used whenever they want to essentially “Red Pill” the audience into thinking the center-Left wants to “cancel” anyone white straight Christian who doesn’t want to be “submit” not just to the forces of America’s majority minority future, but be gay and secular to boot.
Meanwhile, this weird definition of what it means to be “woke” so confuses the issue that the term can pretty much mean anything it needs to mean at any particular moment for a center-Right person. For me, being “woke” is when someone from the Left of me attacks me on some cultural issue and I get really angry because we’re on the same side! The side that wants to defeat the rise of fascist, autocratic MAGA.
Generally, I believe the “woke agenda” rather pragmatic, given the changes demonstrably taking place within America’s population. So, in that sense, whenever a MAGA cocksucker starts ranting about the “woke cancel culture mob,” it’s really a rearguard action against general societal changes happening within the country at the moment.
But I even I have to admit that sometimes the center-Left is full of shit. And oversensitive shit, to boot. They can really get worked up about the minutiae of genders and pronouns, which leaves me extremely frustrated because of how democracy itself is at stake.
I’m also really annoyed with “woke Hollywood” and how they’re pretty oblivious to what audiences want at the moment. The producers of “woke” films are so busy sucking their own cocks that when they fail with yet another gay romcom they get all upset and dismayed — oblivious to the fact that MAYBE the average movie goer isn’t really all that interested in a gay romcom? I validate the gay romcom’s existence, but maybe the producers of such films should temper their expectations just A LITTLE BIT.
Meanwhile, the mood of the country is such that movies like “She Said” are dismissed by audiences as just another angry feminist “woke” movie. I say this as someone who loved the book the movie is based on and know that if the country wasn’t so fucking polarized at the moment, maybe movies like “She Said,” which apparently is a lot like the vastly more successful “Spotlight” might more mainstream success.
It is dismaying to me how the people on one of my favorite podcasts — Little Gold Men — can really be clueless as to what the average movie goer wants. I love the podcast a great deal, but, folks, did you really think Bros was going to be a mainstream hit? Really? Even if it was a regular gay Annie Hall is was going to face an upstream battle to garner any success.
Bros and other gay romcoms are coming out in the middle of the clusterfuck of the Gay Scare of 2022 and so…uhhhh….they’re probably doomed to be, like She Said, dismissed by general audiences as “too woke.”
Anyway. I think there is a media space for movies like Bros and Spoiler Alert and She Said. But maybe not right now. That’s just not the zeitgeist. The country is tearing itself apart and if you produce a movie that in any way could be thought of as “woke,” then, well, I would, like I said, temper your expectations some.
I suppose when we have a National Divorce and a Second American Civil War that the sticky wicket of what it means to be “woke” as well as “woke Hollywood” will finally get straightened out and we won’t have to worry about that anymore.
Too bad we’re going to have to bomb ourselves into the Stone Age to gain that satisfaction.
But for what a fucking lazy idiot Trump is, I would believe that Trump is going to swoop in and become Speaker of the House when Kevin McCarthy fails to get enough votes to get the gig.
Even I, someone who loves to speculate widely, don’t think Trump is going to be Speaker — for a number of reasons. The chief reason is while for normal people with normal abstract cognitive abilities, Trump being Speaker makes a huge amount of sense…this is Trump we’re dealing with.
Trump is so fucking lazy and stupid that I just don’t think he could wrap his little peabrain around the idea of all the damage he could do as Speaker. He has his mind and heart set on being POTUS again and that’s that. I think maybe if Ivanka were to explain how delightful the revenge of taking the Speaker’s gavel away from Nancy Pelosi would be like…maybe he might think about it?
What I think is going to happen is there will be a little bit of a kerfuffle when the vote for Speaker happens, then McCarthy gets it…and then we spend two years with the Senate standing as jury when all these people from the Biden Administration are impeached — some of them more than once!
President Biden It’s pretty clear to me that a Republican House will be so full of spite and rage and bloodlust for revenge that it’s very possible they may accidently on purpose impeach Biden for no apparent reason in the early days of 2023. It will be so transparent as to what is going on that House Republicans are going to do severe political damage to themselves. But it won’t matter — that political damage would only matter if we were a functioning democracy. But we’re no longer a functioning democracy, we’re in between autocracy and democracy — in other words, an “anocracy.”
There are at least two reasons why Biden will be impeached. One is, of course, his wastrel son Hunter Biden. The other is the “border crisis.” The big issue is will these be two seperate impeachments so Democrats will not longer have Trump being impeached twice as a talking point, or if these two issues will be fused together into one event.
At the moment, I honestly don’t know. There’s always a chance that MAGA Republicans will impeach Biden THREE times, for two reasons. They both scream at the top of their lungs that Biden is the only president to be impeached three times and at the same time they can, expo facto say it’s no big deal that Trump was impeached twice.
Veep Harris I have no idea why House Republicans will impeach Harris, but they’ll think of something. Just the idea that they could somehow impeach and convict Biden and Harris in quick succession is enough to give them all a boner and they have no self control so they’re going to do it at some point between 2023 and 2025.
DHS Secretary Mayorkas As I understand it, there’s already a move afoot by House Republicans to hit the ground running impeaching Mayorkas for his handling of the “border crisis.” So, there’s every reason to believe that he’s going to be impeached at some point between 2023 and 2025.
HHS Secretary Becerra This is a bit more speculative, but I could see that once the impeachment counter-revolution gets going that House Republicans will set their sights on Becerra for something connected to “gender affirming” care of minors. That seems like just the type of culture war edge issue that MAGA House Republicans would want to wallow in for a few months to prove a point. I could also see a potential impeachment article surrounding the Biden Administration’s handling of COVID — even though it was Trump who fucked that particular situation up. Who cares about facts when you have lies?
Education Secretary Cardona This is also rather speculative, but once the monster of impeachment is unleashed, House Republicans may go after Cordona on the nebulous charge of encouraging “critical race theory” in schools — even if this is total bullshit. They just want to be able to hold hearings where they rant about CRT for hours on end. It will juice the base while “owning” the libs.
FBI Director Wray If this happens, it will be a prime example of how wrapped up in their own bullshit MAGA House Republicans will be once they have power. Wray is ON THEIR SIDE and they will still come after him because something something Deep State.
Attorney General Garland This is obvious — MAGA Republicans are so blinded by their anger over the Mar-a-Lago raid that they want to impeach Garland for approving it, despite it being totally justified given what Trump did.
There could be a few Federal judges that spark MAGA ire that will be impeached as well.
As I grow older,I find myself missing things like Playboy and the Victoria’s Secret Fashion Show. I also miss the good old days when Hollywood told simple, heteronormative stories that were Just Movies with no “woke” agenda that was beaten into the audience’s skull.
To even talk about the existence of heteronormative monoculture in a wistful, positive way causes some cultural warriors on the Left to spit blood out of their eyes. At the risk of sounding “Red Pilled” I definitely feel as though cultural Leftists are doing themselves no favors by making people feel bad about wishing heteronormative monoculture still existed.
I am well aware of the very dark backstories of both Playboy and Victoria’s Secret, but I think there was an air of tradition about them back when they existed. They were comfort food for everyday people for decades. There was no sense that they had to feel bad for being straight and traditional.
But here we are — even things as basic as liking hot chicks in various forms of undress is a partisan issue. Yet, I think we’ve lost something with the demise of Playboy and Victoria’s Secret. I suppose, of course, that with the rise of internet porn, Playboy’s demise was inevitable.
Combine this with the collapse of the print publishing business and the shocking revelations about Hugh Hefner and, well, lulz. And, in its own way, Victoria’s Secret was just as bad. There was a lot of dirty dealing going on in the shadows when it comes to Victoria’s Secret.
But such things are inevitable when you’re dealing with the most beautiful women in the world. It’s just at some point, we as a culture decided the trade off wasn’t worth it. It’s just sad — at least to me — that gorgeous women in small towns don’t have the Playboy route to showbiz career as a viable choice anymore. And walking the Victoria’s Secret runway was a real dream for a lot of drop dead gorgeous women.
Now, it seems the “woke cancel culture mob” wants everyone to be gay, fat and ugly and they punish people who have the temerity to be anything other than that. (That is what my Traditionalist relatives seem to believe, at least.)
I just wish there was some middle ground. I think a lot of what I’m feeling is just being old. Things aren’t what they used to be and I have to accept that. Barring a Great Reset that causes us all to go back to the way things used to be….this is it. No more Playboy with cultural relevance and no more Victoria’s Secret Fashion show.
I find the idea that Trump, who nearly destroyed American democracy specifically because of his own vanity, will ultimately fold like a house of cards if he loses the 2024 Republican nomination to Ron DeSantis.
I read his piece on this idea and what he suggests is, in fact, compelling. Trump does have a history of unexpecting folding when he hasn’t gotten what he wanted.
More important, it would be uncharacteristic for Trump to allow his grudges to get in the way of his clear self-interest. Trump does lash out wildly at anybody who disrespects him, but he also turns on a dime and makes friends with his former enemies. You can see this pattern in the way he lashed out at the likes of Ted Cruz and Marco Rubio before reconciling on the basis of mutual interest.
What interests would Trump have in common with DeSantis? For one thing, DeSantis could offer Trump legal protection — either pardons or immunity from additional prosecution. Second, DeSantis already commands a massive fundraising network, and as the Republican nominee, he would hold enormous power over various revenue streams around the party, ranging from its scam PACs to its media outlets. DeSantis would be in a position to make sure Trump is very well compensated in return for an endorsement.
I suppose all of what Chait posits is credible, and, yet, Trump continues to slide into some form of deranged dementia. I’m not 100% sure that Trump is still a “rational actor.” As such, it seems possible that Trump could be so filled with narcissistic rage over losing the nomination to DeSantis that he runs under the Patriot Party rubric and splits the conservative vote to the point that a Democrat is able to win again in 2024.
But I’m not prepared to assume that it is even possible for Trump to lose the nomination. The base still loves ding-dong Trump because he continues to be an avatar for white Christian rage about how Blue states use soft power to make them feel bad for…being white Christians.
I suppose what I’m trying to say is — I wouldn’t be so sure to assume anything about malignant ding-dong Trump’s willingness to allow DeSantis to be the Republican nominee, even if he would assure he would get legal protection. I would suggest that January 6th may have been a lot more significant in Trump’s move towards being a very lazy autocrat than we might think.
In other words, if Trump is willing to destroy American democracy out of sheer vanity, there’s no reason to believe he wouldn’t at least seriously entertain the idea of destroying the Republican Party’s for the same reason. Trump is a fighter and I’m no so sure he has the complex abstract comprehension necessary to bow a knee to DeSantis in the short term for the long-term payback of not going to jail.
Trump’s political views are more of a grunt. The only thing that negates how dangerous he is, is a combination of laziness and incompetence. So, what comes across as Trump being all rhetoric is really that Trump just isn’t a “great man” like Hitler, but just an idiot ding-dong avtar for white Christian rage.
So, I dunno. I just won’t make any hard and fast predictions at the moment about Trump, the Republican Party and Ron DeSantis. Here’s why — logically, Trump would have indicted Hunter Biden in spring – summer 2020. Logically, Trump would have stolen the 2020 election well before January 6th. But….he didn’t do it. He waited until the very, very, very,very last moment in the process to try to steal the 2020 election.
As such, I have a wait and see approach. It could go either way. We won’t know until it happens.
Is it possible that as it becomes clear that Ron DeSantis is the only way that Republicans can win the White House 2024…that NOW Trump will face accountability? Will, magically, the wheels of justice begin to turn faster and suddenly throughout 2023 Trump might actually be indicted a few times?
Maybe.
But there are a few problems with this.
One is obvious — any criminal accountability for Trump will turn him into a martyr and the base of the Republican Party will cling to him even fucking tighter. The other is not as obvious, but just as certain — barring something really unexpected, rather than forcing Trump into political retirement, DeSantis winning the nomination would just cause Trump to jump to the Patriot Party.
And, remember, one of the reasons why I think we might have a civil war starting in 2024 – 2025 is Republicans, probably using the newly-validated “Independent Legislature” concept will brazenly steal the the 2024 election. To the point that the country buckles into Turner Diaries-like chaos. (I’ve never read that book, but it’s a shorthand for my worst nightmares about the future of America even though it’s politics are at the far end of the exact opposite of the political spectrum from mine.)
Anyway — the point is, Trump isn’t going anywhere.
He is either going to be the nominee in 2024, or he’ll destroy the Republican Party in the process. And, really, my only question about Trump is — was his historical purpose to be a transitional figure in America’s descent into autocracy, or is he meant to cause a civil war?
Regardless, we’ve officially entered a very, very bumpy time in American history. We either slide into autocracy, have a civil war or maybe have a military junta of some sort. But the America that we have known since the end of the First American Civil War is running on fumes into a dark, dark future. Anything can and will happen and the sooner you start to game out what you’re going to do when the so-called “Fourth Turning” happens, the better.
“You’re a delusional jerk with a good heart.” — (late) Annie Shapiro about me.
I really hate violence. Hell, I struggle with dealing with just simple conflict, much less violence. But I know that at times I kind of get worked up — especially about fat fuck Mike Pompeo — and I also know that apparently everyone is on edge and on a hair trigger about people even seeming to be advocating any sort of harm.
JESUS CHRIST
Just the idea that anyone would think I was some sort of deranged, armed lunatic really, really bothers me. I have very strong opinions, yes, and can get drunk and worked out about this or that issue but I’m a man of peace, a man of ideas.
I can come across as something of a drunk kook, but that’s it. I’m very laid back and, most importantly, I’m not quiet and I don’t keep to myself. I’m 100% extroverted and, as such, whatever happens to be on my mind, you’re probably going to learn about it one way or another.
So, FBI, you can safely ignore me, no matter how much I may rant about how I think Mike Pompeo is a fat fuck and would-be autocrat. I swear. I’m totally, totally harmless!
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