Tag: Autocrats Never Lose

Taking A Blue ‘National Divorce’ Seriously

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

I hate violence, but it’s growing more and more clear that MAGA is hellbent on destroying American democracy and forcing Blue States to “bend a knee” to their autocratic plans. As such, this is a very extreme situation and Blues have to stop deluding themselves into thinking “hope” is going to do them any good. Trump is above the law and always will be. And, ultimately, he will will cheat to become POTUS again, probably via the bogus “Independent Legislature” concept that SCOTUS is inevitably going to validate between now and 2024.

So, what does all of this mean?

It means that there is no other choice for Blue States but to begin to make preparations for secession. It brings me no joy to propose this, but I don’t see any other solution. The very dynamic that led slaves states to attempt to leave the Union in 1860 is at play today. Just like how slaves states felt the abolition movement was ascendant and they had no other choice but to leave the Union, so, too, do Blues face a similar situation.

I propose this in the abstract, as a way to get people to take seriously how dire things are in the United State — and its democracy — at the moment. There would be no assurances that any such attempt at a National Divorce would work, there is the U.S. Military to think about — but we have to gird our loins for a severe political crisis out of our control in late 2024, early 2025.

We all may be Antifia before it’s over with.

The rise of autocratic will slam up against Americans’ self-perception as to what America is and, as such, that will be the point when we either have a National Divorce and civil war or we simply become just another autocracy. Trump’s second term will be extremely radical to the point that a lot of my most hysterical fears will become a reality.

As such, Blues have to begin to game out how we might go through a National Divorce and if American democracy is worth the cost. Any American National Divorce would be a massive fucking clusterfuck that would make the First American Civil War — and even WW2 — pale in comparison. But the case could be made that WW3 will happen anyway if America became a MAGA-themed autocracy, so it’s better to at least to attempt to save American democracy in the Blue portions of the country.

I don’t want a civil war. I don’t want violence of any sort. But the idea of a civil war is growing less and less abstract by the moment. We should plan accordingly.

‘Bend A Knee’

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

A number of alarming developments have happened of late that slightly adjust my thoughts on the possibility that the United States might collapse into civil war.

One of them is how Judge Cannon — hand picked by dingus Trump — is granting his request for a Special Master. This is an easy-to-understand problem that only serves to rile up Blues. It’s possible — but not probable — that it may dawn on Blues that Reds are not only ascendant, but also have corrupted the administration of justice to the point that Trump really is above the law.

The other ominous development is the fact that SCOTUS has agreed to weigh in on the dumb “independent legislature” concept which, as I understand it, would officially disconnect the will of the people from selecting Electors. As such, a MAGA legislature could step in and appoint Trump electors, even if he otherwise lost the state in a landslide.

Combine these two things and the idea that the prospect of a very radical second Trump administration might be enough for Blue States — probably starting with California — to begin to leave the Union becomes a very real possibility.

Of course, it’s at least possible that Trump on a personal basis could start a civil war earlier than that by going transactional and demanding Red States leave the Union specifically to save his own sorry ass from going to prison. That scenario, while juicy, is extremely unlikely for no other reason than Trump lacks the abstract thinking ability necessary to think up something so diabolical.

But the issue remains — the United States is far less stable than we’re will to admit to ourselves. And I continue to believe that if there is any sort of civil war, it will happen because Blues refuse to bend a knee to MAGA fascism.

Kathy Griffin Is Right (Sorta)

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

So, Kathy Griffin has gotten in trouble, again, this time for suggesting a vote for Republicans this fall is a vote for “civil war.” Well, she’s right. Sorta. There are no assurances one way or another that we’re going to have a civil war, but if Republicans gain control of Congress this fall, the likelihood of a civil war definitely does increase significantly.

I say this because the United States is very unstable right now and pretty much any outcome this fall is only going to make matters worse. If Republicans win the House, then there’s a chance of Speaker Trump. Meanwhile, if they lose, there’s a chance of severe political violence because they didn’t get what they wanted.

Anyway, the point is — pray. Things are growing dark in America and are only going to get worse as the days progress. There’s not much we can do, though. We’ve collectively given up and we just don’t have the political will to avoid autocracy or civil war.

We’ve Given Up

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

It definitely seems as though the United States has passed the Event Horizon for the existential choice of autocracy or civil war. While I suppose it’s possible we might end up with a military junta, it’s clear that the America we’ve come to assume would always been there is fading fast.

All the conditions are there for a dramatic shift in the political life in what was formerly the wealthiest, most stable democracy in the world. Something’s gotta give. Either we have a civil war and bomb ourselves into oblivion, or Blues bend a knee to fascist tyranny and that, as they say, is that.

At the moment, at least, I just don’t think Blues have it in them to put up much of a fight. There may be a lot of gnashing of teeth as we slip into autocracy, but, in the end, it will all be a lulz. The reason is simple — the people who would be most likely to lead a Blue attempt at a National Divorce, wealthy liberals, are far more likely to just leave the country.

And, what’s more, it’s just not the temperament of Blues to do something so passionate and radical as to leave the Union on the state level. Of course, there remains the wildcard of Trump. He could, on a personal level, cause a civil war one way or another if he either goes transactional or his second term policies are just so radical that he pushes the nation to the breaking point.

But if something happens to Trump politically and, say, Ron DeSantis is the GQP 2024 nominee, then, yeah, we’re just going to become an autocracy. Things like the shift to the Right on the part of CNN will accelerate to the point that we’re all going to have to use the BBC using VPN to know what the fuck is really going on in the country.

Or, put another way, the United States is in transition on a political level and it’s an open question what we’re transitioning into.

My Hot Take On MAGA Republican John Eastman’s ‘Let’s Roll’ Post.

By Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

Ahh, John Eastman. Trump’s favorite toady MAGA lawyer who thought up the ill conceived memo about how Trump could “legally” stay in power. If you read the thing carefully, it’s very breezy and caviler about how Trump might end American democracy once and for all.

Here’s the ending of something Eastman recently posted.

This is very bonkers because it’s like the “Spiderman pointing” GIF in written form. Or, in a sense, it reminds me of Lincoln’s Second inaugural address about how much the two sides had a lot in common and yet they still decided to settle things on the battlefield.

Eastman is a prime example of one of those guys who should know better. He’s an intelligent, well educated person…who has gone all-in with MAGA Republicans. It’s only because of enablers like Eastman that Trump has gotten as far as he has.

And, in the end, this is yet another sign that the United States either implodes into a MAGA-themed autocracy or we explode into some sort of civil war, caused by a National Divorce.

Trump Is Such A Unique Political & Historical Figure

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

I’m reading up on the rise of Hitler in Germany and I keep, in my mind, contrasting and comparing Hitler with Trump. The key difference between the two men is not what you might think. On paper, because form follows function, they’re almost identical. And, yet, there is one specific element about Trump that makes him different than Hitler.

I suppose what I’m thinking of is Trump’s complete absence of abstract thought on a macro political basis. Hitler, in his mind, had a very clear ideology and political vision for Germany — he even wrote a book articulating it in pretty clear terms. Trump, meanwhile, is nothing more than an avatar, a vessel for white Christian rage.

While Hitler was frequently underestimated, Trump is frequently overestimated. Given the absolute fidelity of Trump’s MAGA Republican followers and how he is politically above the law at the moment, virtually anyone else in his position would have the wherewithal to not only still be in power, but to be rapidly consolidating it.

Almost anyone else in Trump’s position between 2017 and 2021 would have fired as many people as necessary to indict either Hunter and / or Joe Biden in the spring or summer of 2020. But Trump was so ham-handed about his efforts to end Biden politically, that all he did was get himself impeached for his troubles.

For Trump to wait until the absolute very last moment to try to illegally stay in power by putting all his hopes on one person — Mike Pence — is just astonishing. I mean, even doofus me would have known better than to have done that if I was in Trump position.

So, what can we garner from Trump’s past behavior? Well, two things. One, Trump is very lazy and very stupid. And, two, to date, he has only gone transactional out of personal desperation. So, going forward, there is a greater-than-zero chance that Trump could go transactional at some point between now and 2024 if he felt there was a real chance he was going to be indicted.

And what might he do?

Well, to me, the most diabolical thing he could do would be to begin ranting in direct, transactional terms about the need for Red States to leave the Union out of protest for him finally being held criminally accountable. But Trump is so stupid and so lazy — and lacks any ability to think in the political abstract — that I suspect that’s yet another instance of me overestimating him.

While there is every reason to be very, very alarmed at what a Trump second term might look like — that, unto itself, might start a civil war — I have serious doubts that Trump has it in him to realize he could probably wiggle his way out of an indictment by directly asking Red States like Texas to begin the process of leaving the Union.

‘What Constitutes a MAGA Republican?’

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

A MAGA Republican is a fascist. And what does that mean? Well, in this particular case, it means they not only have absolute fidelity to dingus Trump, but they are racist and misogynistic in the extreme. They hate the browning of America and the rise of economically liberated women.

Often they frame what they believe in the context of the “woke cancel culture mob” wanting to ruin their lives for “just for being conservative.” There is an intense sense of aggrievement on the part of MAGA Republicans, to the point that they are willfully blind to the complete lack of popular policies on the part of MAGA Republican leadership in the name of “owning the libs.”

In fact, that is the central tenant of the MAGA Republican movement — owning the libs. They will believe any lie, follow any conspiracy to its logical extreme and ridiculous conclusion as long as they feel the warm glow of there having been libs “owned.” MAGA Republicans are so consumed by the culture wars that they have no policies other than whatever Trump rants about at any particular moment. Their fidelity to Trump is as absolute as a Christian’s to Jesus.

Another important element of the MAGA Republican movement is they no longer believe in democracy. In fact, they go out of the way to make it clear that the United States is NOT a democracy at all, but rather a constitutional republic. They say this because they know the more people vote, the less likely it is they win elections. MAGA Republicans also believe that, by definition, any election they lose is rigged against them.

MAGA Republicans want to establish an autocratic, white Christian ethno state in the United States. They are growing to see violence as means to a political end. And, ultimately, should Trump either go transactional or his second term’s radical policies be too much for Blue States — there could be a civil war.

And, typically, pick the most extreme Right wing hot take on any subject and that’s what MAGA Republicans believe. MAGA Republicans also believe that their Dear Leader Donald Trump is, by definition, above the law and even if the authorities have him dead-to-rights with it comes to {name a law} then it’s all a Deep State conspiracy to get him out of the picture. They believe this to the point that there is a good chance that Trump could be cooling his heels in prison and he would STILL win the 2024 presidential election.

The endgame of all of this is still very much up in the air. On one hand, the United States could stagger into some form of autocracy. This works on the assumption, however, that Trump will somehow get out of the way so a more palatable political figure, like Florida Governor Ron DeSantis, can be America’s first autocrat.

But, as history has shown, Trump is a fighter and, as such, he is a political monster who refuses to get out of the way, long after he has served his historical and political purpose.

So, it’s at least possible that Trump, unto himself, could cause a civil war and destroy the most powerful democracy the world has ever known. Good luck.

Is The United States A ‘Constitutional Republic’ or A Democracy?

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

It’s becoming MAGA Republican orthodoxy to dress up their autocratic desires — and to own the libs — by being very adamant that the United States isn’t a democracy, but rather a “Constitutional Republic.” That Republicans quibble over nomenclature like this is a tell — they have very unpopular policies (such as there are) and rather than change them to win elections in a liberal democracy, they would rather destroy America’s democratic birthright.

There’s a lot to unpack here.

One of the signs to me, at least, that the United States is probably going to slip into autocracy is my Traditionalist relatives, who should know better, parrot this MAGA talking point. What they’re really saying is not so much that they believe that the United States is a Constitutional Republic, but rather they don’t believe in traditional liberal democracy anymore.

They hate it when people vote because they know that the more people vote, the less they win and the more pressure they feel to maybe, I don’t know, change with the times? What they want is to be able to play the more obscure, undemocratic elements of the Constitutional to ensure that they, at a minimum, establish an “illiberal democracy” like there exists in Hungary, in the United States.

And my Traditionalist relatives are all-in on this canard. They talk about how democracy is “mob rule” and how Alexander de Tocqueville warned about the dangers of democracy. (Which, I think is a disingenuous or even downright wrong interpretation of what he wrote about the United States.) And, what’s more they even say shit like the Founding Fathers didn’t want democracy and you’re not doubting their wisdom, are you?

This is all bullshit. The reason is, while, yes, we are a Constitutional Republic also, at least until recently, a very stable Western democracy. There were democratic norms and, in general, the general movement of American pollical life was towards more democracy and a broader definition of who could vote. So being a Constitutional Republic is not mutually exclusive with being a democracy.

All of this, of course, is a cover for how desperate white angry Christian (men) are to establish a white, autocratic Christian ethno state in the United States for various reasons. They are afraid of the browning of America, the rise of economically liberated women and a growing secularity in the country. They point to things like the “woke cancel culture mob” because that is lot easier to sell on a political basis than, “I want to take your democratic birth right.”

The rise of Republicans believing that the United States is a Constitutional Republic is a clear sign that we’ve lost Traditionalists and, as such, we are careening towards an autocratic state the moment — any — Republican becomes POTUS. That’s all she wrote. If someone like DeSantis becomes president, then we’re going to have A Very American Autocracy and we’re going to wake up in 20 years and wonder why he’s still POTUS.

Millions of wealthy liberals will leave the country to the point that the “liberal brain drain” will replace “scary brown people at the border” as a boogie man for the American MAGA Right. On paper, all things considered, that seems to be a foregone conclusion.

And yet, there is a wildcard — Trump.

Trump is such a fucking malignant chaos agent that he could, personally, start a civil war in a variety of ways between now and, say, spring 2025. I’m not saying he will, but there is definitely a greater-than-zero-sum chance that it will happen.

Anyway, I just don’t think we’re prepared for how bumpy the next few years will be. MAGA Republicans have all the political momentum — despite their snowflake bellyaching — and either they get what they want, which is an illiberal democracy, or we have a civil war of some sort.

Figure out what you believe in the real world and what you’re willing to suffer for. Or just leave the country, if you can.

A CNN & MSNBC Nightmare Scenario

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

As you may know, there is a purge going on at CNN, likely at the behest of MAGA plutocrat John Malone. The transformation is swift and jarring so a lot of people are like, “What the what?”

Well, if what happened to Russia as it transformed into an autocracy after Putin became president there, here is what might happen to not just CNN, but MSNBC should Trump or, say, DeSantis become POTUS in 2025.

Under the guise of transforming the poorly fairing Peacock streaming service, CNN’s parent company Warner Bros. Discovery merges with MSNBC parent company NBCUniversal. But, because we’re an autocracy now, either newly elected President DeSantis lulzes this mega merger and lets someone control two of the three major news channels — John Malone, or CNN is sold to some other MAGA oligarch.

Then all three major cable news networks would be purged of all their liberal voices and before you know it, there will be just a lot of OANNs, all parroting the party line, like their Sinclair Broadcasting.

Of course, if we have a civil war, then a mob of angry Blues might sack Fox News’ offices in New York City as the country falls apart. Oh well. Good luck.

‘What Will Happen To Our Democracy?’

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

First, to directly answer the question in the subject — I don’t know. But what I can tell you is there are two pretty obvious endgames to the American democratic birthright. One thing to make clear is, according to political scientists, after January 6th, the United States isn’t even a democracy anymore — it’s an “anocracy.”

This is when a country is either transitioning to autocracy or transitioning towards democracy. And its in this state of transition that a country is most likely to have a civil war.

As such, while I don’t know what’s going to happen to our democracy, I can give you two possible outcomes — they are civil war or autocracy.

All things being equal, the most obvious answer is we’re going to slide into autocracy when someone like Ron DeSantis becomes president. To be a Republican is to not believe in democracy in the first place and to want autocracy, so any Republican who becomes president will end what’s left of our struggling democracy. We’ll become an autocracy without putting up any struggle at all and 20 years from now we’ll all wonder why DeSantis — or whichever Republican gets the job — is still POTUS.

We may all be Antifa soon.

That on paper, is what the most logical endgame to what’s going on. We can’t simply “hope” that a Republican won’t become POTUS anytime soon so there is time for them to have a come-to-Jesus moment about democracy. That simply is not going to happen. We in an asymmetrical war against autocracy at the moment — Republicans just have to win once to end American democracy.

In a sense, it definitely feels like we’ve collectively just given up.

Then there is Trump.

Trump, unto himself, could start a civil war in a variety of ways. He could start one sooner by telling Red States to leave the Union NOW in an effort to protect himself personally. He could start one later by, say, having such a radical second term that Blue States begin to leave the Union as early as just after Election Day 2024 to as late as spring 2025.

I would suggest you keep an eye on wealthy liberals. If they begin to leave the country en mass then you know Something Big is just about to happen. I estimate as many as 1 million wealthy liberals will flee the country whenever we either start to have a civil war or begin the final transition into autocracy.

All I can say is — figure out what you believe in, what you’re willing to risk life and limb for in the real world. Having such clarity is something you’re really going to need, no matter what happens.