Liberal Fever Dream: A Runaway Senate Jury


by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

This is very much a liberal fever dream. It’s never going to happen. But it is mildly pleasant to imagine a situation where once the Senate starts its second impeachment trial of Trump that events cause what would otherwise be a pretty meh trial to go haywire.

Imagine if the two sides got into in a pitched battle of new witnesses and evidence as a series of huge new Trump Era scandals exploded in the coming days. We might even get to the point where John Bolton and Don McGahn finally spill the tea about what a criminal fucktard Trump has been the last four or so years.

But that’s never going to happen. Never.

Trump will be acquitted, run again in 2024 and we’re going to be exactly where we were earlier in January.

Fourth Reich: Hitler, Trump & The Rise Of The Patriot Party


by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

In the spirit of wanting to be where the puck will be, not where it is, I’m reading a great new Hitler biography. It’s part of a two book biography and talks about Hitler’s rise to power up until 1939. It’s a very easy read about a very dark and deep subject.

As I have predicted for some time, the United States is now in political neutral and will likely be so for about two years until Congress flips to the Republicans again. This, of course, will be the setup to Trump or someone like Trump becoming president in 2024.

Enjoy your liberal democracy while you can, America, things are about to get dark. Really dark.

The only reason why liberal democracy survived is because Trump is an idiot. He had the entire nation prone before him, ripe for the taking and he totally, completely blew it. He was all impulse and no follow through. He just isn’t as smart as Putin or as bloodthirsty as Hitler.

So, this brings us to the prospect of The Patriot Party, which be, at first, simply the MAGA subset of the Republican Party. I’ve seen some Twitter liberals gloating about how great such a historic cleaving of the Republican Party would be and all I gotta say is — slow your roll.

If Trump did pull the MAGA element away from the Republican Party to start the Patriot Party, any victory that liberal-progressives would get out of such a situation would be fleeting. Maybe one election cycle. The macro trends that have the United States lurching towards an autocracy are just too powerful. Either we become an autocracy under Republicans in 2024 or one under The Patriot Party in 2028.

You pick.

So, in a sense, the American First Republic has already fallen, history hasn’t caught up yet. The Patriot Party is going to be like that slutty girl who will do the political buttstuff that our old girlfriend won’t do. Broken free from the moderating force of the National Review wing of the Republican Party (the “establishment”) The Patriot Party is going to break any law, destroy any norm, do whatever is necessary — even violence — to obtain and keep power as soon as possible.

I still think in hindsight Qanon will serve as the basis for a new Holocaust. This time, the United States will implode like Cambodia in the 1970s and there will be American Killing Fields filled with…gulp…people like me. It’s going to all happen so fast, it’s going to be a political history suckerpunch.

I just don’t see any way this doesn’t happen. Something I just can’t predict would have to step in and prevent it from happening. I’m thinking something like a limited nuclear exchange with the DPRK or something. Something big. Something so big it would overshadow the rise of fascism in the United States on a macro political level — or at least punt the problem down the road until, I don’t know, the Singularity or First Contact happens.

So, in short, read up on Hitler’s rise now to prepare for how you, on a personal level, will address something similar in the United States at some point in the next decade.

Good luck.

#CapitolRiot: What Did Trump Know & When Did He Know It?


by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

Trump just can’t keep a secret. So, given his public comments leading up to January 6th, it’s beginning to appear as though Trump may have known a lot more about what was going on than we now know.

Usually, during a Trump Era scandal, this is the point when an audiotape of Trump saying something incriminating happens. We all get upset for a few days, then we move on.

But, for the time being, this moment in time feels different and so if something like that did pop out, Trump would face some severe political consequences. Even if he’s got one foot out the door.

I have a general sense at this point that Trump probably knew a lot more about the details of the Capitol Riot than you might think. I doubt he was involved in the specific planning — he can’t keep a secret, after all — but he knew how big the event was going to be and that he might be able to stage a coup using the existing infrastructure that was being built out.

Yet for the time being, I think Trump is going to escape justice yet again. He’s almost out of office and even his extra-political, extra-legal or extra-Constitutional options are kind of limited right now. He could maybe do something in a spasm of panic, but he’s done none of the hard work of autocrat.

My fear now is he’s going to grow extremely passive-aggressive to the point that we start to think he’s a danger to himself our us.

Trump’s Second Impeachment May Be A Huge Clusterfuck (But It Has To Happen)


by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

Even leaving office and into his post-presidency, Trump has managed to figure out a way to gummy up the works. And, as it stands, in real terms, Trump is poised to “get away with it”

Here’s why: the case can be made that January 20th is his impeachment and conviction and he’s going to pardon everyone on January 19th, so his entire era will be value free.

There will be no consequences other than young hack MAGA judges and a tax cut for plutocrats. That could change if suddenly two weeks is doesn’t evoke the idea of “Oh, that’s just a few days” but rather OH MY GOD HE’S IN OFFICE FOR ABOUT TWO WEEKS.

If Trump can just stay catatonic between now and January 20th, then we’re set to drift into the Biden Era. We all know it would go against his nature to do any such thing. So, there’s a pretty chance he’s going to do something so crazy in the next few days that there’s going to be a pretty dramatic lurch towards impeaching and convicting Trump even before January 20th.

But let’s say that doesn’t happen.

The Senate trial against Trump will be both painfully moot, divisive, self-defeating and absolute necessary.

And the case could be made that Republicans, seeing an opportunity to fuck up Biden’s political honeymoon, might decide THEY want witnesses and to drag out what, in real terms, is a politically meaningless act — an impeachment trial after Trump’s actually out of office. Yes, there are a few significant goodies that Trump could be denied if he’s convicted, but in real terms, at least in the short term Trump will “get away with” his crimes and his entire era will be completely, totally, fucking value free.

Anyway. It’s one of those things that has to happen and at the same time doesn’t really mean anything. Which, I think, sums up the Trump Era quite nicely.

10 Days That May Shake The World


by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

So, here we are, on the evening of January 6th, not knowing what’s going to happen. As I’ve said before, America is running on fumes politically and the two sides have hardened their positions enough that just the barest of additional stress on the system would likely make the whole thing collapse.

And by collapse, I mean significant political violence in the United States.

But, for the moment, let’s imagine we somehow defeat the January 6th coup. This is when things REALLY get bumpy. The moment Biden’s victory is certified, Trump may really fucking snap.

It is between, say, Jan 10 (final certification if Republicans push the issue) and January 20th that Trump’s already fragile mental state could grow so perilous that he explodes. He becomes a very conspicuous caged rat who would rather destroy the nation than risk leaving office for various reasons.

He would “destroy” things in a number of ways. He could foment some sort of secessionist crisis. He could start really firing people en mass. He could frogwalk Joe Biden. He could start a war or wars. And, worst of all, he could finally implode into extreme passive-aggressiveness.

If that happens, then Trump could very well scare the ever-living shit out of the entire world as he begins to ramble on Twitter about how “liberals want me to kill myself” or “no one appreciates the power I have when it comes to nuclear weapons.”

Now, even then, I have my doubts as to would anything happen. At least at first. If Trump really went that bonkers, the first thing that would happen would be Republicans would say he was “joking” or that somehow there was some misunderstanding of what he said.

It’s when it became absolutely, 100% clear that that was not the case….then THAT would be when some extremely surreal events would happen very, very quickly.

But the one constant about Trump is you just never can tell. He could more implode than explode mentally and we just kind of drift into the Biden Era, no big deal.

Trump Goes Transactional (Almost)


by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

Someone on Twitter pinged me, suggesting Trump had, at last, gone “transactional” via his Twitter account. But I don’t think he has, yet. For me, “Trump going transactional” would mean he told his followers to do something specific. Especially if that “something specific” was violence that was not him “just joking.”

It would have to be something completely, totally indefensible. Something that would make conservatives-who-aren’t-MAGA sit up and take notice. An “ask” of his followers in the real world for them to, well, hurt people, stage a coup, blow shit up, crash the Congressional certification, you name it.

Any different series of these things might be done in conjunction. Or not. Trump is so desperate at this point and so devoid of any sense that his actions have consequences that it’s possible he could begin to thrash about in the next 24 or so hours in a way that we’ll look back as the defining moment of his era.

What’s more, it might not even be just the next 24 hours. It could be that January 6th is just the beginning of the Fortnight That Shook The World whereby all Trump does is use a “spaghetti gambit” to attempt to stay in power.

He does all kinds of bonkers things, hoping one of them will work. He could do everything from go transactional on Twitter, to start a war to declare martial law, to frogwalk Joe Biden.

We will know soon enough, I guess.

We’re officially in the danger zone now. All the conditions are there for significant violence in DC, enough, in fact, to be Trump’s “Reichstag Fire.”

Why Trump Was Not ‘America’s Hitler’


by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

Now, before we begin, let me note that Trump “not being Hitler” isn’t what you might think — Trump’s not Hitler not because he’s not a deranged lunatic, but he’s so lazy and incompetent he can’t exploit the conditions that would otherwise MAKE him Hitler.

Let’s put it this way — the people who voted for Trump in 2016 were on a spectrum. There were people who wanted Trump to be America’s Hitler. There were also a lot of conservatives-who-weren’t-MAGA were given a permission structure to “come home” to the Republican Party when it counted: election day. In this sense, all things being equal, Trump was set to be an American Hitler — then he blew it.

What people like me saw in Trump was a Hitler-like character. We spun all these dark, dystopian scenarios where Trump would go full-autocrat on us and start off at Putin and endup at Hitler before it was all over with. Then we spent 4 years expecting Trump to do all these autocratic things…that he never did. Trump never did some basic Hitler-like actions that could have destroyed American democracy and taken us on the path towards some semblance of a Trumplandian-Nazi America. So, the case could be made that while Trump slice the seal of autocracy and tyranny, we may have dodged a bullet for the time being because of it was Trump, specifically, who was elected in 2016. If it had been anyone else, then they would have had the wherewithal to actually be an American Hitler.

The surreal thing is Trump, in a frantic attempt to stay in power, may change the entire context of the Trump Era. If Trump destroys himself politically by attempting to seize power through extra-political or extra-legal means, then it’s possible that he will so enrage Americans that for one, brief moment, we’ll be united it how much we all hate Trump.

Then, of course, we’ll descend into finger-pointing and recriminations. And, remember, the conditions that put Trump in the position to become an American Hitler will still be there, so it could be someone younger and more focused who ultimately does the deed.

But it definitely seems as though we’re careening towards some sort of “political 9/11” between now and January 20th. How exactly that will happen is anyone’s guess. Even if Trump attempted some sort of American Reichstag Fire in an effort to stay in power, it’s just too late. He’s done none of the hard work that Hitler would have done in Trump’s position.

So, in the end, it’s possible Trump might, just might, punt America’s lurch towards Nazi-style tyranny down the road a decade or so. But we’re not out of the woods yet. Anything can happen now MAGA has enjoyed power for four years.

‘Downfall’


by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner


I feel I have a certain insight into Trump’s mind because he reminds me a great deal of my late mother — if you added testosterone and a wealthy Queens upbringing.

Anyway, the thing I learned from my mother’s behavior is people like Trump have a certain power from their instability. You just never know how they’re going to react to something. Are they going to flip out or are they going to take it calmly like a normal human being.

Having said that, there’s an element of Trump’s mentality that we’ve been kind of eyes wide shut about. Let’s call it the “Downfall” endgame. In this scenario, Trump’s mind falls into a logic trap and he snaps mentally. It would be at this point that he scares the shit out all of us.

So, let’s say his last-ditch effort to overturn the election fails on Jan 6th. He has about two weeks to wreak havoc. He could go transactional on Twitter in any number of different ways. He would demand MAGA murder liberals in cold blood. He could demand secessionist conventions in Red States. Or, things could get far, far darker.

He might start to get really, really passive aggressive on Twitter. To the extent that he starts talking about his ability to launch nuclear weapons and how he’s “protecting America” by being in office. If that wasn’t enough to scare the shit out of everyone, he might start to whine about how everyone hates him and liberals would be happy if he was dead.

I’m not joking — this is a real possibility.

This brings up the idea that Trump could very well hold up in the White House and refuse to leave. While a lot of Twitter liberals seem to express a certain glee at this prospect, in reality having to coax Trump out of the White House isn’t exactly something I would like to see the country have to go through.

But it gets worse.

What if, by that point, he’s so far gone that he goes the Downfall route. The implications of this would be staggering. It would be his final selfish act. Because it would be something that would-be Patriot Party people could hang an ideological agenda on.

Trunp-as-martyr would scramble our politics for a generation.

And, yet, that scenario is so fucking dark that I don’t like to think about it for no other reason than in the end Trump is a physical coward and for him to do something so drastic would mean he REALLY had lost his mind.

Anyway, he’s something I wrote about trying to get Trump out of the White House a few years ago.

9/10ths
a story fragment of a possible near future
by Shelton Bumgarner

April, 2019

The eyes of the world were on the White House.

Just moments before, President Donald J. Trump, 45th president of the United States, had been convicted by 67 members of the Senate for a whole list of high crimes and misdemeanors. Trump had for weeks now been ranting on Gab about his case in the Senate, bouncing back and forth between threats to start a war with Iran or the DPRK and not-so-subtle hints that he might take his own life should he be convicted by the Senate.

And, now, at last, the moment of truth had arrived.

Trump legally, at least, was no longer president, but he had been oddly silent since the verdict had been announced with great fanfare from the well of the Senate. Trump’s conviction had come after months of investigations on the part of the now Democratic Congress. The length and breath of Trump’s malfeasance discovered by these hearings had rocked the nation to its very core. On more than one occasion, MAGA talking heads on cable news had been interrupted by astonishing breaking news that left them, for once, unable or unwilling to defend the president.

The hearings had ground on for months to such an extent that Trump’s approval had slowly drifted to the 20s and stayed there consistently. Trump’s support was now made up of the very rich and the very poor. Oddly, despite Trump’s near constant demands on Twitter for violence on the part of his supporters, little, if any was reported. Trump had grown so frustrated that he had all but abandoned Twitter at one point for the more receptive Gab social media platform. Though on more than one occasion Rudy Giuliani had made it very clear it was within the rights of the president to declare martial law if he deemed it in the best interests of the nation. More than one delegation of Senate Republicans had gone to the White House to explain to Trump that he was going to be convicted, no avail. Trump made it clear to them, in not so many words that his simply living in the White House made him president, a sentiment best expressed by the legal saw that, “Possession is 9/10ths of the law.”

Finally, a post to Gab came out: “My so-called ‘conviction’ is the work of the Deep State and as such illegitimate. I remain president.”

This set off a chain of events, the likes of which Americans had never seen. Suddenly, everyone on Twitter became a Constitutional scholar as everyone studied the exact wording of the Constitution as to what happens if the president is removed from office by the Senate. The wording is quite clear: he or she is no longer president and that’s it.

Nowhere in the Constitution did it explain what to do if the president simply decided to ignore the Senate. What’s more, nowhere in the Constitution did it state what to do with the nuclear launch codes should a president be removed from office and he refuse to accept the decision of the Senate.

The next few hours were chilling as they were surreal for millions of people not just in the United States but around the globe. The issue of Trump’s physical access to America’s nuclear launch codes was suddenly at the forefront of everyone’s mind. Though it was finally announced that while the nuclear football remained in Trump’s possession, Sec. of Defense Mattis had ordered the American armed forces to stand down for the duration of the crisis.

Trump, on Twitter, was as defiant and unhinged as usual.He threatened to kill himself. He threatened to start a nuclear war. He vowed to declare martial law.

The usual suspects on cable news did their best to spin all of this for Trump. As an anxious nation waited for the now former president to leave the White House, a cavalcade of former Republican Senators and Trump White House staffers attempted to make the former president’s case. Their final argument was that for the good of the country, Trump should be allowed to remain president, despite his lawful conviction by the Senate.

Things began to move rapidly at this point.

Vice President Pence was sworn in but Chief Justice Roberts in a dark, somber event in the Old Executive Building. Meanwhile, it was learned Trump had quietly replaced his Secret Service detail with a private security force that made it clear it was prepared to defend Trump until the bloody end.

At this point, two things happened. A final bipartisan delegation of Congressional leaders came to the White House grounds under the flag of truce. During the course of an hour-long meeting, Trump screamed at them that they had never supported him and the world would be better off if it just ended instead of allowed the forces of the Deep State to ruin America. He made it absolutely clear that he would never leave the Oval Office willingly.

With that, they left.

Next, a surreal, bizarre event, the FBI slowly began to surround the White House. There was much debate online and on TV about how long the nation should wait for Trump to leave the White House. CNN went so far as to do a deep dive into the exact amount of food the White House grounds might have available at any one moment.

Finally, shots rang out from the White House as the battle was joined. It took several hours but in the end, the FBI was finally able to secure the facility. Nearly a dozen personnel on both sides died during the course of the Battle of The White House.

In what would become ionic footage, Trump was quietly escorted from the White House grounds. He spent the remainder of his days ranting on Twitter and Gab that he was the rightful president.

The End.



Republicans Have Become The ‘Leopards Eating People’s Faces Party’


by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner


It is becoming clear that Trump is no longer thinking in terms of politics but rather strictly in terms of self-preservation. As such, we’re careening towards a moment in time when Trump goes extra-legal and extra-political in his attempts to stay in power. There are a number of things that are concerning me about this.

The Defense Department
Trump keeps cramming the Defense Department with cronies. I’ve read somewhere that this may be an effort on the part of Trump to find out how much he could, in fact, get away with if push comes to shove. That’s really nerve wracking because what if Trump somehow manages to move the autocratic dial a little bit. Just a little bit would freak us all the fuck out.

Mike Pence
I’m growing concerned that on Jan. 6th Trump will goad Mike Pence to simply nullify the certification of Electoral College votes by not doing his job — or not doing it in a manner that follows the spirit of the law. Remember, the point of this would be to throw things to SCOTUS in such a partisan manner that they’re absolutely boxed into a up-or-down corner. Trump wants a replay of 2000 because he’s a craven ding-dong who’s actual political skill is little more than that of Chauncy Gardner in Being There. So, it’s very possible that there will be extreme, rancorous debate in Congress over the certification of votes, but in the end, Trump will lose. Even if Pence tries to be a spanner in the works.

Trump Going Transactional
This is a real wildcard. As it becomes more and more clear that Trump is, in fact, going to actually have to leave office, it’s possible that he stops “joking” and insinuating about violence against his enemies and flat out tells MAGA to murder liberals in cold blood. Or he could begin to demand Red States hold snap conventions so they secede. Pretty much anything is on the table once Trump finally snaps mentally.

‘Downfall’
This is probably my worse fear. If we get to this stage of things, then Trump really has lost his mind. This is a very dark situation, indeed. Everything from Trump blackmailing America by suddenly bringing up his ability to use nuclear weapons to him going the literal Hitler-in-the-bunker route would be possible under this scenario.

But there are some things to take into consideration. One is Trump is not nearly as well-put-together as we keep thinking and he’s so unstable and lazy that any transactional things he does may be so half-hearted and poorly thought out that they aren’t very successful.

Yet, we’ve now officially entered the most dangerous phase of the Trump Era. Anything could happen. We could all get the shit scared out of us before it’s over with. There will be no narrative, no value as it all happens.

Release The Kraken? Be Careful What You Wish For, Sydney Powell


By Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

There’s talk that Trump may, at the behest of Sydney Powell, sign an executive order seizing voting machines to “look for signs of fraud.” While I guess for a lot of MAGA shithead cocksuckers that would be a good thing, it might be a pretty massive self-own on Trump’s part.

I say this because to date, Trump really hasn’t, in any concrete way, done anything autocratic. He has plenty of autocratic impulses and “cruelty is the point” for most of his policies, but he’s yet to do anything that conservatives-who-aren’t-MAGA can’t dismiss as just liberals having Trump Derangement Syndrome.

But once Trump starts down the path to autocracy, especially at this late date in his administration, it might be just a little bit more difficult for people who love Trump’s policies, his young hack MAGA judges and his tax cuts to be able to defend him. It won’t be impossible — they’ll likely just wave their hand and say he’ll be out of office soon enough, why are we even talking about this, but there’s a risk that he could get REALLY BAD, REALLY QUICK.

If he begins to see things in strictly terms of self-preservation, then the usual political considerations won’t apply. And the real danger will be the time between when Trump stops worrying about any political consideration and when Moscow Mitch notices this.

We could careen into a massive clusterfuck for no other reason than everyone is too busy celebrating the holidays and assuming Trump will leave office in about a month to notice that Trump has completely fucking lost his mind and has no intention of going anywhere without a fight.

I’m wrong all the time. I have no idea what is going to happen. But the prospect of Trump going “full autocrat” with one month left his term is unnerving, to say the least.