Tag: Autocrats Never Lose

Is Nikki Haley In It To Win It?

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

As we enter the primaries, we find ourselves in something of a quandary. Trump continues to support extremely unpopular things — like getting rid of Obamacare — and we all just shrug as if he’s some sort of unstoppable political force.

But what if he’s not?

At the moment, this is crazy to even suggest, but what if the polls are wrong and Nikki Haley manages to become a viable contender to Trump? The best case scenario for her, as of late 2023, is she shocks everyone in the early states, gets to be a media darling until Super Tuesday…and then it’s over.

There will be talk of her being Trump’s veep, but, ultimately, he picks some crazed MAGA half-wit who will be just as bad, if not worse, than he is should they ever become POTUS.

But this does raise the issue of what happens if Trump either isn’t the nominee or he loses in the fall. If he’s not the nominee, then think he runs third party and tries to win in the House when no one reaches 270. If he doesn’t win as the Republican nominee…oh boy. I still worry that he’ll scream bloody murder about the need for a National Divorce and, as such, a civil war.

Pondering A Third Trump Impeachment

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

The more I think about it, the more I realize that by definition a Trump second term would be extremely unstable. I say this because first of all, all the tyrannical things Trump wants to do won’t happen in a political vacuum in either political direction — Left or Right.

First of all, there will be a lot of vocal anti-anti-Trump people who will rationalize any tyrannical thing Trump does in 2025 by saying, “the people have spoken.” Meanwhile, if Trump really abuses power in a tyrannical way, anti-Trump forces will have two possible reactions at their disposal — impeachment or somehow deposing Trump using the power of the U.S. Military. (NOT ADVOCATING ANYTHING.)

Impeachment would hinge on if Democrats won the House or not in 2024. And people would have to get REALLY WORKED UP even then. So, in a sense, the difference between politically removing Trump via impeachment and overthrowing him via a military coup would not really be all that different. In both instances, you would probably have to organize a General Strike to get the point across AND there is a good chance that Red States would begin to leave the Union in protest.

So, I dunno what to tell you. Hopefully, things won’t get so bad. Hopefully, something will happen and Trump will just scurry away into political oblivion.

The Warped Nature of American Politics Is Enough to Make You Throw Up Your Hands In Dismay

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

We live in strange times. My far more conservative relative — whom I love dearly — really lives in a totally different universe than I do. They have a pretty well thought-out series of talking points that he has been fed through all the Right-wing podcasts they listen to.

They think all the investigations into Trump are nothing more than “lawfare.” They think the economy is horrible. They think the armies of Russia and China are soooo much more powerful than ours because they’re not “woke.” I tried my best to point out how wrong all of that was on a strictly factual basis, but I don’t know how successful I was.

The point remains — the proof will be in the pudding should Trump get re-elected and he start to do things that are so totally bonkers that even Traditionalists who are “MAGA curious” will sit up and take notice. If Trump goes full tyrant to the point that Traditionalists — who otherwise love, love, love his policies — throw up their hands in disgust…everyone, not just Trump, will have a real problem on their hands.

That is crux of the issue going forward — is there *any* red line that Traditionalists will have should the time come? Is there *any* tyrannical thing that Trump might do that will cause them to say, “enough is enough” and support whatever last-ditch direct action might be thought up to get rid of Trump?

The entirety of the American democratic experience hinges on what Traditionalists decide at that point.

The ‘Vibsession’ Is Real In The Minds Of MAGA

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

Another holiday season, another polite, but heated, debate with my far more conservative relative. It is clear to me that the center-Right and the center-Left in the US live in totally different realities now.

While I’m not suggesting that the U.S. economy is perfect, in general, it’s doing quite well in relative terms. But to hear my conservative relative talk, you’d think we were in the middle of a Second Great Depression. I finally had to make it clear that I actually had facts to back me up, if need be, just like they had all these fact about how horrible COVID lockdowns were.

This is a prime example of how fucked we are going into the 2024 election. It could be that we’re so divided that even though the economy is doing generally well enough people on the center-Right will be wrapped up in the “vibesession” that Trump will come roaring back.

And I don’t think we really appreciate how fucking bad a second Trump administration will be. It will far, far worse than any of us could possibly imagine. The key issue is, of course, what the reaction of the average person will be when Trump starts snatching people off the streets.

Who knows.

The Russians (Think They Are) Coming (In Late 2024, Early 2025)

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

At least one notable Russian thinks that the U.S. will be so “leaderless” in late 2024, early 2025 that they can strike Europe with impunity. While if you were to read this blog on a regular basis, you might think that was *possible*, even I have my doubts.

The two main scenarios facing us are Trump wins and there’s a major re-alignment of the global order and Trump loses and we somehow have a civil war. There is a third, less likely scenario, whereby Trump loses and…nothing happens.

I can’t predict the future. I have no idea what is going to happen. But I am worried that Something Big will happen in late 2024, early 2025. Does that mean Russia will be able to invade Europe at will? I dunno about THAT. But I do think it’s at least *possible* that there will be so much mass chaos taking place in late 2024, early 2025 for various Trump-related reasons that, yeah, maybe.

But the U.S. Military so powerful that even if Russia attacked, say, Poland, we could still put a hurting on Russia, even if the rest of the military was being force into an untenable situation by ding-dong Trump.

Yet, let me be clear — I can’t predict the future. It’s possible that the coming year will be rather meh or something unexpected will happen that will punt our problems down the road another four years.

‘Minority Report’

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

Since I can’t predict the future, let’s go through some of the ways that we could somehow punt our structural political problems down the road in 2024, like we did in 2020.

The Primaries
Nikki Haley is gaining fast on Trump. And, as such, it is still within the realm of possibility that Trump will be seen as a paper tiger and Haley will be the nominee. But, of course, there is an equal chance that if something so unexpected happens, that Trump runs as an independent and calls for a civil war when he doesn’t win the general.

The General
The only reason why Trump remains a viable candidate is how fucked up our political system is. As such, no matter what, once he gets the nomination, he will be 60,000 votes in 5 swing states away from being POTUS again. But Trump is really, really unpopular with a huge segment of the population, so…I dunno. And just because Trump might demand a National Divorce if he loses, doesn’t mean anyone will listen to him.

Something Unexpected
It’s totally possible that just like in 2020, something really, really unexpected might happen in 2024 that throws everything for a loop.

Abortion Is An Economic Issue

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

I can’t predict the future. No one can. But it definitely SEEMS as though the moment MAGA can ban abortion on a nation-wide basis, it will. The reason why I bring this up is abortion, likely slavery, is an economic issue.

While abortion obviously isn’t as dramatic an economic issue as slavery, the fact that Red states want the entire US to be pro-life isn’t exactly a great situation when it comes to the health of the Union.

The whole thing is very corrosive.

And it could be, when Trump starts to thrash around as a tyrant and band abortion nation-wide, it would be just that type of thing that could push women over the edge to the point that we have some sort of Women’s Strike against Trump.

But, what do I know. Lulz. No one listens to me.

An Unusually Bad Hot Take From New York Magazine Against Holding Trump Accountable Using Second 3 of The 14th Amendment

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

New York Magazine is one of those establishment liberal publications that gives you some insight into what the “conventional wisdom” of the Costal Elites is. And I’m very annoyed by their belief that SCOTUS shouldn’t, well, read Section 3 of the 14th Amendment for what it say — Trump is disqualified from running again.

Any normal human being reading the 14th Amendment would say Trump is banned from office. And, yet, apparently, New York Magazine thinks that because of the risk of fascist violence on the part of MAGA, SCOTUS should punt the problem or do whatever necessary to allow Trump to run.

One argument that New York Magazine makes that I agree with is No One Is Going To Save Us. I totally agree with them on that. Trump is a symptom, not a cause and, as such, we have to prepare for the worst — either autocracy or revolution / civil war.

But at the same time, I believe we should follow the law, and the actual words of the 14th Amendment bans Trump from office. We can’t be intimidated by the threat of MAGA fascist violence into bending to their will. That sort of appeasement didn’t work with Hitler in the 1930s and it won’t work now.

Anyway…good luck?

The Idea Of A Civil War or Revolution Because Of Trump Is Just Too Profound To Comprehend in Late 2023

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

Talk about projection.

At the moment, now, in late 2023, I’m not prepared to predict that all of my hysterical doom shit might actually happen starting in late 2024, early 2025. It’s just not easy to comprehend that the greatest nation in the world might collapse into civil war / revolution because malignant ding-dong Trump goes full tyrant.

The only reason why I think it’s possible is the Republican Party has so radicalized that any additional pressure on our political system might be enough for the whole thing to come crashing down. We’re dealing with macro demographic and political trends that definitely SEEM to all be heading towards some sort of climax in late 2024, early 2025.

But it could that, just like in 2020, we manage to punt our problems down the road another four years and all my dire predictions will look rather silly. And that’s the outcome I want. It’s not like I *want* the United States to turn into a MAGA-themed autocracy or have a revolution / civil war.

All I can say is, wait and see. Everything is still up in the air and could go either way.

‘Direct Action’

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

Now, let me be clear — I’m not advocating anything. I’m just musing about how bad things might get under a second Trump Administration and what might be the reaction.

The key thing to remember is how difficult it is to rile Americans up. It was only because of a series of things going wrong at the same time that there was so much upheaval in the late 60s and early 70s. And even then the moment the Draft ended, most (white) people calmed down and just wanted to boogie on the dance floor.

And, yet, at the core of the Trump problem is he loves to piss all over anything sacred. He can’t help himself. The moment he realizes something is special or protected in the minds of a group, the first thing he does is go out of his way to hurt the feelings of that very group.

So, it’s well within the realm of possibility that Trump in a second term would literally “lock her up.” He could literally arrest not just Hillary Clinton, but any number of other well respected Blues. And he would do it in the most ham-handed, gross way that would cause Blues to grow enraged. And all off this would be happening in the context of him sending in the U.S. Military to Blue areas of the country by invoking the Insurrection Act.

But I’m still not 100% sure that would be enough for any sort of General Strike. It could be that rather than doing anything about Trump, so many smug Twitter liberals will leave the country that we Poors will be left to fend for ourselves. It could be that Trump will somehow manage to fall just below the level of tyranny that would cause national direct action against his rule.

Yet, as I said, Trump has a knack for shitting on anything a group holds sacred. So if Trump goes full tyrant and his toadies start to act on his fascist, autocratic tendencies in a way that is difficult for Blues — and even some Reds — to process, we’re going to the show.

It is at least possible that some Trump’s tyranny could result in some unpreceded events to happen. And, yet, if Trump was somehow deposed, that would just lead to Red States wanting to leave the Union.

I don’t know what to tell you. Things might get really bumpy 2025.