Tag: Big Ideas

January 6th, Three Years Later

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

Given how dire some of my personal predictions about the next 18 months are, it’s very possible that Mike Pence may have single-handedly given the Republic four years to — somehow — save itself.

And what have we done with that time?

Jack shit.

Rather than using the fours years that Pence afford us by lighting his political career on fire, we’ve just mentally masturbated over the “who shot John” elements of Trumplandia, not really addressing the central issue: Donald Trump.

So here we are, potentially about to either turn into a MAGA-themed autocracy, or have a civil war / revolution. I say this because it seems clear that America was the cusp of a civil war / revolution on January 6th, 2021. It is simply amazing that the the insurrectionists we sooooooo dumb and disorganized that they didn’t try the Paris Commune endgame and simply squatted in the Capitol building until there demands were met.

I fear this will not be the case next time, should such an occasion arise.

I almost went to D.C on January 6th to cover certification, but it was too cold and I knew that I would head home well before dark, anyway. I’m so broke it’s just not practical for me to go to D.C. unless the financial conditions in my personal life are juuuuuust right.

So, even if I had gone up there that day, I seriously doubt I would have been around when the crowd attacked the Capitol. It’s possible, but not probable. And I would have only done it because of the heat of the moment and my natural journalistic instinct to go where the story takes me.

Anyway, the thing about Mike Pence is he is such a fucking Trump toady that he simply did not have the courage to go the same route as Liz Chaney. He could have totally revamped his career had he become a virulent #NeverTrumper. But it’s too late now, lulz.

I just don’t know what to expect in 2024 and 2025. It could be that Trump is just a quirk of history and will fade into oblivion, or it could be that the man single handedly destroys not just democracy in the United States, but manages to cause the collapse of the post-WW2 global liberal order.

So, I guess we just wait at this point.

America Has a Third Columnist Problem

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

I’m listening to the All-In podcast and I’m stunned at how much Tech Bro David Sacks is a third columnist. The term “third columnist” was something used back in the bad old days to denote someone who was helping the fascist / communist enemy from within.

I think the term is apropos for fascist Tech Bros like Sacks.

And, I have to note how tone deaf and out-of-touch these otherwise very wealthy, powerful and well-educated men are. They say some of the dumbest shit. They seem to get really worked up about things that only help our enemies within and without.

The thing about it is, I listen to All-In specifically to challenge the center-Left echo chamber media narrative that I too often find myself surrounded by on an intellectual manner. And, I will admit, listening to All-In helps me build up anti-bodies to the fascist, America First agenda talking points.

I have nothing personal against Sack, but some of his views can be very, very grating on the nerves –at least to me.

I Have Some Questions About That ‘ET’ In Miami

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

Something curious happened in Miami the other day and it leaves me with a lot of questions. So, here’s what we know — a HUGE number of Miami police officers rushed to the scene around one of the malls in Miami. They apparently went to the scene because a bunch of teens were causing trouble and shooting off fireworks.

Ok, here’s where things get weird.

There is footage — in the dark, natch — of some sort of “creature” walking around the scene as well.

But here’s the catch — that’s all we got. There’s no up close, clear footage of such a huge creature walking around the middle of a major American city. You’d think SOMEONE would have a cellphone with a camera and have recorded the incident in a far less ambiguous manner.

And if there was some sort of space alien involved, where was there ship? And what happened later that night? Was the creature taken into custody by the police? And you mean to tell me that the single biggest event in Human History — Hard First Contact — just happened and everyone lulzed it? No leaks? No people screaming at the top of their lungs that aliens have landed?

It’s all very curious. It does give us a sense of what might happen if Hard First Contact did actually happen. I think you’d be surprised by how blasé people would be once it was clear that the ETs came in peace. I think (most) people would just shrug and move on to the next thing.

We Might All Suffer From Groupthink When It Comes To Trump’s Popularity

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

We still haven’t actually had anyone vote one way or another when it comes to Trump in either Iowa or New Hampshire, so it’s at least *possible* we all have some sort of lingering group PTSD over what happened in 2016 and we’re wildly overestimating Trump’s actual popularity.

The scenario I have in my mind at the moment is Trump gets trounced in both the Iowa Caucus and the New Hampshire Primary and we all spend about a month mentally masturbating about the possibility that “Trump is done” or that he might run third party.

Then, of course we reach South Carolina and lulz, Trump comes roaring back and eventually everyone else drops out. But I don’t know. I really got burned in 2020 by overestimating Trump. He is so dumb and lazy and such an avatar for deep problems in our political system that maybe his win in 2016 was just a quirk of history and, as such, it’s over for him.

I just don’t know. That seems a little too good to be true, and, yet, as 2020 proved, stranger things have happened.

Wargaming The Unthinkable On A Personal Basis

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

My tendency to be really paranoid served me quite well as an expat in South Korea. In the ROK as an expat, you’re pretty much one sentence away from scrambling to stay in the country. Living in America, though, this can make me come across as kind of bonkers.

But, having said all that, let’s think the issue what the fuck I’m going to do if the absolute worst happens and I am forced out of my Deep Red part of my state when the country implodes because of “vibes.”

At lot depends on how bad things get and how quickly. If things get really bad in the sense that I don’t feel safe being a Blue in a Red part of a Purple State, then, I suppose I’ll flee to the home of family in a Blue part of the state. But if things got REALLY BAD, REALLY QUICK, things are more complicated.

If there was some sort of infrastructure for Blue domestic political refugees to use, then I probably would grab my passport and stuff some essentials in a backpack and head North. With a general destination of NYC, if I could somehow finagle it.

But that’s very speculative and maybe a bit — or a lot — delusional. The key thing for me is I have to be prepared to bounce the moment it’s obvious that my political orientation is suddenly An Issue to the people around me. They say you go bankrupt gradually, then all at once, and that’s my fear — that I’ll wake up one day at some point after the 2024 Election and a bunch of good olde boys with guns will make it clear that I need to leave town — or else.

And, yet, I’m probably being hysterical. I am prone to think up the absolute worst case scenario. I won’t have to worry about any of this. Right? Right?

A Moment Of Truth

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

Something I find myself thinking about a lot these days is what will happen on a personal basis to different people if any of my political dystopian hellscape nightmares come true.

I would suggest you keep an eye on some of the more bonkers MAGA people in Congress if it seems as though we’re going to have some sort of Secession Crisis. If Ted Cruz leaves the Senate to help organize a Trumplandia government then, welp, we’re going to the show. But if he doesn’t leave….then maybe things will kind of fizzle out.

Meanwhile, there are a number of notable Blues that I think could see their lives turned upside down if we have something akin to a civil war. Jon Stewart, in particular, seems like just the sort of guy who would stand and fight, rather than flee the country to have a circle jerk podcast that he did in the South of France. In fact, Stephen Colbert, Jimmy Kimmel, Seth Meyers and even Jimmy Fallen might shock us all with how they might be forced into some sort of political leadership position.

They may become political prisoners under the watchful eye of MAGA goons, if things get bad enough.

If things get as bad as I fear, everything and I mean EVERYTHING is going to be scrambled in a rather shocking, startling manner. The Woke Era will end because we’ll all be so busy trying to avoid artillery shells that we don’t have time to think about what pronouns we want people to use in reference to us.

And, I can’t predict the future and I hope — HOPE — I’m wrong. I just can’t help myself when it comes to trying to make my abstract fears concrete.

Win Or Lose, Trump May Spark A Second American Civil War Starting in Late 2024, Early 2025

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

The Republican Party is now, on a structural basis, primed and ready to start a civil war by calling up Secessionist Conventions. Now, I fear this could happen both if Trump loses or wins. It will happen if he wins if he is promptly deposed in some way — either by impeachment and conviction or by the U.S. Military — or it MAY happen if he loses.

The issue of Trump sparking a civil war by losing is really difficult to game out at this point because it is, on the face of it, very, very silly to think any such thing might happen. It just is staggering to imagine that the most powerful nation in the world might collapse into civil war because of “vibes.”

But, here we are.

And, yet, now, at the end of 2023, I still can’t tell you with any certainty that even if Trump screams bloody murder about the 2024 election being “stolen” from him that any state legislatures will listen to him.

It could be that there might be — some — politically inspired violence, but, on the whole, Trump just rants and ultimately fades into politically obscurity.

I just don’t know.

An Unusually Bad Hot Take From New York Magazine Against Holding Trump Accountable Using Second 3 of The 14th Amendment

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

New York Magazine is one of those establishment liberal publications that gives you some insight into what the “conventional wisdom” of the Costal Elites is. And I’m very annoyed by their belief that SCOTUS shouldn’t, well, read Section 3 of the 14th Amendment for what it say — Trump is disqualified from running again.

Any normal human being reading the 14th Amendment would say Trump is banned from office. And, yet, apparently, New York Magazine thinks that because of the risk of fascist violence on the part of MAGA, SCOTUS should punt the problem or do whatever necessary to allow Trump to run.

One argument that New York Magazine makes that I agree with is No One Is Going To Save Us. I totally agree with them on that. Trump is a symptom, not a cause and, as such, we have to prepare for the worst — either autocracy or revolution / civil war.

But at the same time, I believe we should follow the law, and the actual words of the 14th Amendment bans Trump from office. We can’t be intimidated by the threat of MAGA fascist violence into bending to their will. That sort of appeasement didn’t work with Hitler in the 1930s and it won’t work now.

Anyway…good luck?

The Idea Of A Civil War or Revolution Because Of Trump Is Just Too Profound To Comprehend in Late 2023

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

Talk about projection.

At the moment, now, in late 2023, I’m not prepared to predict that all of my hysterical doom shit might actually happen starting in late 2024, early 2025. It’s just not easy to comprehend that the greatest nation in the world might collapse into civil war / revolution because malignant ding-dong Trump goes full tyrant.

The only reason why I think it’s possible is the Republican Party has so radicalized that any additional pressure on our political system might be enough for the whole thing to come crashing down. We’re dealing with macro demographic and political trends that definitely SEEM to all be heading towards some sort of climax in late 2024, early 2025.

But it could that, just like in 2020, we manage to punt our problems down the road another four years and all my dire predictions will look rather silly. And that’s the outcome I want. It’s not like I *want* the United States to turn into a MAGA-themed autocracy or have a revolution / civil war.

All I can say is, wait and see. Everything is still up in the air and could go either way.

I Need / Want to Watch ‘Carol’ But I’m Being Stubborn

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

Carol is just the type of movie I *should* want to watch. I started it, but stopped because, I dunno, something about it turned me off. But I think I’m going to try — TRY — to watch it again.

Cate Blanchet stars in “Carol.”

I think some of it comes from the vibe is shoots off. Something about the over-serious nature of the relationship turns me off. And, yet, I can tell it’s also just the type of Serious Storytelling that I should enjoy.

Ugh. I’m so torn.

And all of this happens in the context of me feeling more and more guilty about how little content I actually *consume*. I really just read my own stuff over and over again and that’s not good. I need to expose myself to other people’s work. These thoughts are happening in the context of preparing to query my novel at some point in 2024.

I’m going to have to have something to “comp” it to other than Stieg Larsson’s work which is, at this point, nearly 20 years old. Ugh. It’s times like these when I realize leaving the extended delusional state I’ve been when developing and writing this novel is going to be extremely jarring.