I can not predict the future. In fact, I’m almost always, always wrong. But I am growing more and more alarmed by the demostrable instability in the United States as we careen into the 2024 presidential campaign.
The idea that malignant ding-dong Trump is warming to the siren call of antisemitism in the guise of incel MAGA superfan Nick Fuentes is definitely a “Not great, Bob” moment in modern American politics. That Trump — who has a Jewish daughter he loves so bad that he apparently wants to marry her if he could — would listen to an antisemite like Fuentes is both alarming and perplexing.
It’s a real head scratcher, that.
But it does align with my personal belief that we all way, way overestimate Trump’s abstract cognitive abilities. He is nothing more than a malignant Chancy Gardner from Being There. That’s it — he’s dumb, lazy and pretty much what you see is what you get.
His political acumen is nothing more than a grunt. All of this hidden, of course, because he doesn’t have to do anything but play himself and the bonkers racist misogynistic white Christian hordes will continue to support him because he’s nothing more than a vessel, an avatar for their rage against the browning of America.
He’s not a Great Man of history because he just rides the wave of history, he doesn’t direct it like, say, someone like Hitler might. If Trump was a Great Man, he would be cruising into his third term at the moment, consolidating power ever more tightly along the way.
But, as it is, Trump is kind of limping along, listening to antisemites and ranting about how the “woke cancel culture mob” is out to get him and all other God fearing people. Ugh.
I simply can not figure out if Trump’s historical and political purpose is to simply be a transitional figure that guides America in to fascist autocracy or if he’s supposed to be the reason, unto himself, that we have a Second American Civil War.
It really could go either way.
At the moment, I still lean towards the peaceful establishment of an American Fourth Reich. There will be a lot of grumbling on Twitter — if it still exists at that point — about various Blue states leaving the Union…but in the end, Blue states just don’t have it in them. They’ll bend a knee to autocratic, antisemitic MAGA fascism and at least 1 million wealthy liberals will “vote with their feet” the moment we realize after Election Day 2024 what’s about to happen.
I say this believing that the CONDITIONS exist for a full-fledged National Divorce and, as such, Second American Civil War. That would, of course, prompt a Third World War and the DPRK probably lobing a few H-bombs in the direction of the United States as well.
I know — I KNOW — that sounds hysterical at the moment, but I’m just using existing trends and extrapolating them to their logical conclusion around 2024 – 2025.
Anyway, I suppose something could happen to at least punt all this down the road a little bit, maybe yet another POTUS election cycle. I have a novel I’d like to sell and see on the shelves, so I definitely have a vested interest in their NOT being a 2ACW.
Is it possible that as it becomes clear that Ron DeSantis is the only way that Republicans can win the White House 2024…that NOW Trump will face accountability? Will, magically, the wheels of justice begin to turn faster and suddenly throughout 2023 Trump might actually be indicted a few times?
Maybe.
But there are a few problems with this.
One is obvious — any criminal accountability for Trump will turn him into a martyr and the base of the Republican Party will cling to him even fucking tighter. The other is not as obvious, but just as certain — barring something really unexpected, rather than forcing Trump into political retirement, DeSantis winning the nomination would just cause Trump to jump to the Patriot Party.
And, remember, one of the reasons why I think we might have a civil war starting in 2024 – 2025 is Republicans, probably using the newly-validated “Independent Legislature” concept will brazenly steal the the 2024 election. To the point that the country buckles into Turner Diaries-like chaos. (I’ve never read that book, but it’s a shorthand for my worst nightmares about the future of America even though it’s politics are at the far end of the exact opposite of the political spectrum from mine.)
Anyway — the point is, Trump isn’t going anywhere.
He is either going to be the nominee in 2024, or he’ll destroy the Republican Party in the process. And, really, my only question about Trump is — was his historical purpose to be a transitional figure in America’s descent into autocracy, or is he meant to cause a civil war?
Regardless, we’ve officially entered a very, very bumpy time in American history. We either slide into autocracy, have a civil war or maybe have a military junta of some sort. But the America that we have known since the end of the First American Civil War is running on fumes into a dark, dark future. Anything can and will happen and the sooner you start to game out what you’re going to do when the so-called “Fourth Turning” happens, the better.
I don’t know what to make of Marjorie Taylor Greene because on one hand, she’s just another deranged MAGA moron and on the other she seems to want to be a real player in Washington. The only reason why this is both alarming and unnerving is she not only has incoming Speaker Kevin McCarthy over a barrel, making all these demands of him, but she’s also apparently in the running to be Trump’s 2024 veep.
MTG
Oh boy.
So, there there is a good chance that we may trade ding-dong Trump for ding-dong MTG at some point after 2025. Should she — gulp — become president either she would be a far more effective version of Trump or she would name someone like fat fuck Mike Pompeo to be her veep and he would would behind the throne. I call this the “Velvet Fist” scenario.
I just don’t know. While I do think it is very, very possible that MTG could become POTUS by being Trump’s veep, her actual ability to turn America into some sort of MAGA hellscape is debatable. But anything is possible, I guess.
I will note, however, that if Trump is the 2024 Republican nominee, the likelihood that America will have a Second American Civil War increases significantly. Let that marinate in your mind whenever thinking of MTG as POTUS one day.
Ahh, the curious case of one Donald J. Trump in the context of America’s inevitable slouch towards autocracy. It is easy to see Trump as “America’s Hitler” but the more I read up on Hitler, the more I have my doubts. Hitler was a Great Man of History. He bent history to his will and road it like a tamed tiger to great heights.
Reasons why we may have a civil war.
Republicans have come to glorify political violence Something you see a lot these days within the bullshit echo chamber of the MAGA New Right is the belief that because “liberals won’t leave us alone” that they are being “driven” to extremism. There’s a lot of leading not-so-vague talk as to what all this would ultimately mean. But it’s clear that for a number of “thought leaders” within the MAGA New Right that they have accepted that at some point in the future, they’re going to have to resort to violence to get what they want.
Republicans no longer believe in democracy It is now clear that like any good fascists, Republicans no longer believe in democracy unless it’s for the specific purpose of gaining and keeping power. This view of the system they’re supposed to a part of leads them do extremely destabilizing things that help push the country to the brink.
Trump 2024 Just Trump being the 2024 nominee would, in itself, be enough to cause a civil war at some point in late 2024 – early 2025. He just has a special knack for “owning the libs” in such a way that if he stole in 2024 election and said the “quiet part outloud” that Blue States would grow so enraged that it would be they, not Red States, that left the Union and caused a Second Civil War. But Ron DeSantis is polling exceptionally well at the moment, so either Trump politically shivs him at some point, or he co-ops him, making him his VP, opening the door to DeSantis becoming America’s Putin at some point down the road a little bit.
Steve K Bannon. Bannon and his toadies are actively working to destroy the framework that weuse to administer free and fair elections. So, it’s very easy to imagine a situation where this gambit works in ways that Trump himself is too idiotic to pull off personally and it will be so egregious that, again, Blue States leave the Union and we have a Second American Civil War.
Extreme negative polarization We’re in for a bump four or so years, no matter what, because negative polarization, on a systemic level, has reached a critical mass. When one of your political parties is fascist and would rather crash the global economy instead of even appear to work for the good of the nation — you got a problem.
A lack of shared values As the big blow up on Twitter in the last 24 hours about a Stephen Colbert song and dance gag about getting vaccinated proves — we can’t even agree on what’s funny. A combination of this and negative polarization is leading to the United States being two nations, one Red, one Blue and when we get around to attempting to elect the next president, the system simply won’t be prepared for the passions it will stir up.
A potentially historic miscalculation on the part of Republicans It’s possible that, much like European powers in the lead up to WW1, when the time comes and Republicans have a choice between peacefully transitioning us into autocracy or fucking with us all so we want to take up arms, they will choose the latter not because they have to, but because they want to. It’s possible that by the 2024 — 2025 period, Republicans will see a civil war as their only choice to consolidate power, even if it’s clear that they could get everything they ever wanted within the system they so obviously loath.
SCOTUS sides with MAGA on the “Independent Legislature” concept. I really don’t know that much about this idea other than it would pretty much give MAGA free reign to ignore the popular vote and use its power over state legislatures to deny Democrats the White House for, well, forever. Once it dawns on Blues that they simply will never be allowed to take the White House again, that might be the final breaking point.
Meanwhile, ding-dong Trump is too lazy and stupid to do even the most basic of Great Man plays. I mean, if Trump really was America’s Hitler he would currently be working on his plans for his third term in office and rounding up people like me so we could be put in an ever-burgeoning camp system.
While Hitler was a Great man of History, Trump just limps along, being a vessel, an avatar for the rage of your typical white Christian who is fed up with the so-called “woke cancel culture mob.” He doesn’t do anything. Yeah, he almost destroyed American democracy in 2021, but he was so vague and half-assed in his efforts — waiting until the very, very last possible moment to stay in power — that he was bound to fail.
I would like to take moment to note that one a macro level, it definitely seems as though January 6th, 2021 was the high point of MAGA. Or, if nothing else, it was the one moment when Trump actually had a chance to break the back of American democracy once and for all and effective rule as a dictator, at least on a political level.
We came so close to the end of our democratic republic. So. Very. Close.
Trump’s second term after January 6th would have been violent and chaotic, with the country constantly being on the edge of civil war as Trump consolidated power.
But being a lazy idiot, Trump blew it and so here we are. I think the question we should be asking ourselves is not “Is Trump America’s Hitler” but, “Who will be America’s Putin?”
That’s because it’s more likely at this point that the United States is going to become an “illiberal democracy” like found in Russia as opposed to some MAGA themed Nazi state. Although MAGA becoming American Nazism is still a very real possibility for various reasons because of America’s original sin of race….I think we’re probably going to just slide into autocracy without a shot being fired.
Gradually at first, then more rapidly, someone like DeSantis — or name a Republican — throttle what’s left of American democracy and that will be that. Millions of wealth Blues will flee the country for various parts of the globe. The Constitution will be changed with the addition of MAGA-themed Enabling Acts and away we go.
Some 20 years from now, we’ll wake up and DeSantis — or someone like him — will still be a MAGA POTUS and he’ll be explaining to us why we absolutely have to “deNazify” Canada for this or that reason. I wish I was joking. I’m not. That definitely seems to be our immutable fate at the moment
In fact, the only wild card is, and always has been, Trump himself. If we’re going to have a civil war it will be because either Trump and his allies steal the 2024 election in a rather brazen manner, or their incoming agenda is so fascist in nature that Blue states begin to leave the Union.
And there is, of course, the issue of the “Independent Legislature” concept that SCOUTS is going to take up on December 7th. If they agree with that radical, bonkers concept…the idea that Blues might leave the Union in late 2024, early 2025 grows exponentially more likely.
At the moment, of course, all that sounds bonkers. And maybe it is. But it’s definitely something to think about going forward as we careen as a nation towards a very turbulent and dark future.
I do not believe that the American press has done a very good job of preparing the public for how dark things may get if Republicans control the House and or the Senate. Republicans are now so radical that they’re fascist and autocratic. To be a Republican in good standing is to not believe in democracy unless you win the election.
And, really, the curious thing is what doesn’t seem to be on the cusp of happening — Speaker Trump.
Trump being Speaker of the House is something that would be a basic autocratic play for any other person in Trump’s position. But Trump is such a lazy idiot and has such poor abstract thought abilities that he just can’t process in his mind how politically advantageous it would be for him to be Speaker.
But the key issue we have to remember is the only way we end the MAGA Republican threat is probably a civil war. That’s it. I say this because MAGA is now American Nazism and, in the end, the only way to end MAGA is how we ended Nazism — in the field of battle.
Let me be clear, however — I hate violence. I don’t want any form of violence, so what I just wrote is just an abstract, back of the envelope statement. So, we have to accept that we’re probably going to turn into a political clone of Nazi Germany at some point after Republicans steal / win the 2024 election. Then everyone who can will flee the country, just like people did when the Nazis took over Germany.
The point is — if Republicans take the House and or Senate, they are going to do everything in their power to destroy what’s left of American democracy so they can prime conditions for the final coup de grace. Or, put another way, the years 2023 – 2024 will be extremely dark and turbulent if Republicans have any sort of meaningful power.
I don’t know what to tell you. Get a passport. Game out where you might be able to flee to when the final darkness of autocratic MAGA fascism drapes across the country.
Whenever I talk politics these days with my far more conservative relatives — who I love dearly — inevitably the subject of abortion comes up and inevitably I come away at a loss.
There are so many contradictions and poorly thought out things connected to cause and effect that it’s difficult to process. The most glaring paradox is, of course, is that “pro-life” advocates got so fucking worked up for 50 years about how “every life is precious” then when COVID hit the country they were fully prepared to sacrifice Elders to the grim reaper. Unless, of course, they were related to them, then that was different.
Meanwhile, it seems as though MAGA is offended that abortion is mentioned at all in the public square. They take ANY mention of it, even in the effort to keep women safe, as gratuitous and taboo. They get all worked up about how states like California tell women they can still get abortions there, as if the state is advocating they have abortions instead of carry their fetus to term.
So, for a lot of conservatives, all abortions must be illegal because, by definition, abortion is only used for birth control. But wait, there’s more — these very same people have used all sorts of birth control themselves and they lulz the idea that MAGA is coming after legal birth control next, even for married people.
Abortion was always a legal firebreak for birth control in general and now that it’s gone, all of the passion behind ending Roe is now going after overturning the legal framework that has kept any form of birth control legal.
This all points out the central tenant of MAGA — they have a very poor grasp of how they keep hurting their self interests with some of their much sought after policies. They’re oblivious to it until, of course, it gets personal, then they secretly pay for an abortion or whatever. They don’t mind being hypocrites. In fact, that’s kind of their thing.
Now, obviously, there is another Red Line that I’m very concerned about — once the United States is an autocracy, the clock will be ticking for when I cross the autocrat and an ICE agent shoots me in the back of the head. I’ve had the luxury of being a loud mouth crank in a liberal democracy and once that’s no longer the case, my goose is cooked.
I’m probably going to be one of the first victims of the autocrat simply because I’m never, ever going to fucking shut up — even if my far more conservative relatives beg me to “for the sake of the family.”
Free speech is part of my American birthright and I plan to exercise it to the very end.
Sometimes when I talk to my Traditionalist relatives, I’m aghast at how different they perceive the world relative to me. At the very forefront of their mind is the idea that the “woke cancel culture mob” is not only “grooming” children, but they will “cancel” anyone who is conservative enough to question their aggressive “gay agenda.”
Not canceled.
Ugh.
A prime of example of this bizarre world view is Dave Chappelle. My Traditionalist relatives believe that because of his aggressive anti-trans stance, that Chappelle’s career is dead and he now lives under an assumed name along with all the other “canceled” conservatives of Hollywood.
Of course, this is complete bullshit.
Chappelle is doing fine. He’s very popular and continues to have a robust career. But the expression my Traditionalist conservatives give me when I point this out is complete disbelief. They really believe that the “woke cancel culture mob” is so absolutely powerful that by definition if you have the temerity to cross them that you burst into flames and descend into some sort of “canceled” hell to be with a groomer Satan or some such.
This is why I just don’t believe there is any hope for America anymore. The idea that the people who otherwise would be the bedrock of our democracy now apparently, in the abstract, live in abject fear of having their lives ruined by the “woke cancel culture mob” just for being conservative is extremely alarming. They are primed and ready to, when the time comes, support America’s transition into autocracy.
Then, of course, the only question we face is do we endup around Hungary and Turkey politically or do we careen towards something closer to Russia or Nazi Germany. At the moment, I honestly can’t game things out that far.
And, yet, it definitely seems that this is it. Call it the Fourth Turning, or the “Great Reset,” or whatever the fuck you want, but the United States is far less stable than you might otherwise think. And, really, the issue is — when MAGA demands Blues bend a knee to autocratic fascism, do they do it or do they serve papers on a National Divorce?
At the moment, I think Blues are going to be so sucker punched by how rapidly the transition to fascism happens in the United States that they’ll just shrug and let it happen. After a brief moment of panic in late 2024, early 2025, we’ll just slip into autocracy, probably through a process that will ultimately end in a Constitutional Convention.
There is a small chance of a military junta, but I wouldn’t bet on it.
If you have the means, get a passport and start figuring out where you’re going to flee once the American Nazis known as MAGA finally consolidate power.
One of the go-to talking points of one of my well meaning, sincere conservative relatives is the idea that he just wants to be”left alone.”
I really struggle with what he means by this. If I brought up how the state telling a woman what she can and can’t do with her body definitely goes against his mantra, I doubt he would process what I was implying the same way. In his mind, he doesn’t really hold a coherent ideological stance other than a vague, abstract fear that the “woke cancel culture mob” is going to either force him to turn gay or ruin his life just because he’s conservative.
This mentality is also why he just can’t validate my fears of what will happen to ME if the United States becomes a MAGA themed autocracy. Not until I’m abducted by ICE and tortured will it become real to him that maybe he should have joined forces with me and people like me when he had a chance to save democracy.
There is a real crisis in the United States when it comes to Traditionalists. Something about the second Obama Administration broke their minds. Something about how there was a sudden, abrupt change in social expectations and gender dynamics really spooked them. Whatever was that happened spooked them to the point that they are gleefully waiting for a MAGA themed fascist autocracy to consume the United States so things will go back to the way they were — America will, at last, be great again.
But in their eagerness to murder American democracy, they are totally oblivious to how they are directly connected to people — ME — who probably will have an ICE bullet put in his head when he simply refuses to shut the fuck up about our Very American Autocrat is a piece of shit who can suck his cock.
I am well aware of how hysterical that sounds at the moment. But when the United States turns into a white Christian ethnostate — which seems to be an immutable, inevitable aspect of our future history at the moment — people like me will have a choice.
Either we leave the country, never to be seen again, or we risk being “disappeared” by ICE (or whatever agency the autocracy ultimately weaponizes.)
But back to the idea of my relative just wanting to be “left alone.” It’s my impression that much of the rage of my well-meaning conservative relative comes from the regular sensitivity training he has to undergo as part of his corporate job. What is that, however, but the free market working? If it’s a private company doing that sort of “woke” things, then they’ve decided for some reason that it’s in the best interest of their shareholders for the employees to at least be aware of how some people have a different perception of race and gender roles.
And, yet, that’s not how my conservative relative sees things. Without even realizing what he’s articulating, he’s pontificating on his support for white identity politics. He doesn’t believe in democracy because he wants keep white people on top, even as the white birth rate plummets and America becomes a majority minority nation.
There is so much more to talk about, but I’ll cut it short to make this specific point – all things being equal, Blues should secede from the United States and found a Blue Union that is on the same page about what we expect from each other on a whole host of issues.
But, by definition, such a National Divorce would grow horrifically violent and I don’t want that. So, autocracy or military junta it is, I suppose.
If you want the most recent reason why I think all those earnest, well meaning yet racist and mysgonistic MAGA cocksuckers can fuck off, look no further than Elon Musk amplifying this particular gem.
So, instead of taking responsibility for spewing hate and inciting stochastic terrorism, all those ernest, well meaning, well educated MAGA dickheads continue to double down on all their lies and hate. They just can not accept that they’re in the wrong on this one.
I continue to be at a loss as to how otherwise normal people can be so consumed by hate that they gleefully spread disinformation about people like Paul Pelosi. Or they take the attack as an opportunity to joke around.
It makes you wonder what will happen if something REALLY BAD happens. My guess is all those well meaning MAGA fuckheads will go silence for a few days while the Powers That Be at Fox News and Right wing podcasts think up their talking points so they can continue to “own the libs.”
Usually, what happens is, once they come out the other side, their talking points are all spin. They try to rationalize the Bad Thing out of existence, or say “thoughts and prayers” or even “we have a national mental health crisis.” But what if a major center-Left figure is seriously hurt as part of stochastic terrorism?
I can only assume that the only difference will be the length of their radio silence. But in end result would be the same — MAGA simply refusing to accept that they are to blame with all their frothy rhetoric about how center-Left people “groom” children.
So the country continues to circle the drain. The forces of fascist MAGA continue to gain power and will ultimately force Blues to make a choice — bend a knee to autocracy, or demand a National Divorce. There is the possibility that the U.S. Military may step in and we’ll be ruled by some sort of military junta for a little while as we wait for the passions of the 2024 election to cool down.
I’m reading a political biography about the rise of Hitler — as one does — and the key takeaway so far is: it can happen here. We like to make ourselves feel better by believing that the rise of the Nazis was something unique to the German psyche after The Great War.
But the more I read about Hitler’s ascent, the more I realize that it Can Happen Here. Though, of course, Trump could not be more different than Hitler. I’m just at the book where Hitler’s personal characteristics are described and Trump is no Hitler.
The way Hitler is described really lays bare how Trump is just an empty suit who happened to at the right place at the right time to be a vessel, an avatar for white Christian rage over the browning of America and the rise of economically liberated women. (All the bitching and moaning about “wokeness” and homophobia is just something that happens on the Right because it’s politically expedient.)
Anyway, all signs point to A Very American Autocracy. And there is one specific problem which could very well cause Nazi-like genocide in the United States: race.
Once the United States is no longer a democracy, the more vile elements of the American experience could grow dangerously amplified to the point that there are Killing Fields in upstate New York and in various places around the South. The United States could implode into a situation where the only way we get rid of our American Nazi overlords is they grow so extreme that there is some sort of mass revolt.
Or, I don’t know, NATO, Japanese and Korean forces swoop in and topple the MAGA fascists who are murdering millions at an alarming clip by that point.
The point is — be very alarmed. Everything from Election Night 2022 to January 2025 (and beyond) could be historic and flabbergasting. Something’s gotta give. Call it the Fourth Turning or the Great Reset — America is in for a very, very bumpy ride.
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