I think it’s safe to say that once the MAGA nightmare is over — however it may be — we’re going to have a lot better understanding of the rise of Hitler in Germany. The vague parallels between Hitler and Trump are startling. But the key thing we have to remember is — no matter how bad things might be with Trump at any particular moment, they’re always going to get worse.
Donald Trump
As such, we have to begin to do not only triage, but gird our political loins for pretty bad situation. Apocalyptic, even. I still content that in the end, MAGA will ultimately be responsible for more deaths than the Nazis. And that goes for either way things might work out — Fortress America or some sort of 2nd American Civil War. In either instance, Pax America will end and something marketing as WW3 will break out.
Or, put another way, we are in the political twilight of an unpreceded era of global peace and prosperity whereby America was the linchpin of a stable order the likes of which humanity has never seen since Roman times. It’s almost over. All that has to happen is either MAGA gains power again or we have a civil war of some sort.
We’re going to live in some very interesting times. There will be no narrative and it may take generations for us to fully understand the implications of what happens. We’re about to have a “Fourth Turning” or “Great Reset” of some sort and it’s all going to be fucking dingus Trump’s fault.
It definitely looks as though everything could go to hell in a handbasket at any moment. All we need is some sort of catalyst. It may be that we will look back at the FBI raid on Mar-a-Lago as what started it all, or maybe not. Maybe Trump has to go transactional first.
All I know is — enjoy these last few days or weeks, or months of “normal” life in America. At best we might be able to punt things down the road one more presidential cycle. But the days of muddling through political are over. We’re all going to have to pick a side or a side will be chosen for us.
It’s going to be pretty fucking ironic when the very thing that cry baby MAGA people thought happened with the 2020 election — that it was stolen — really does happen in 2024 to Blues. The moment it becomes clear that voting is moot and the Republicans have successfully turned the United States into an autocracy is the moment of truth.
Either we have a “National Divorce” and, as such, a civil war, or we just give up and become an autocracy. Now, it’s very possible that Trump could very well win the 2024 election without cheating, but it’s his nature to cheat and if that cheating so so brazen that Blues can’t escape it — the potential for a massive clusterfuck exists. And the more I think about it, the more I wonder what role the U.S. Military will be in such a scenario.
If there is real doubt as to who won the 2024 election will they sit back and watch as the country collapses into chaos, or will they step in. Is it possible that we could find ourselves with some sort of military junta while the issue of who is president is sorted out? The fact that SCOUTS might validate the idea of “legislative independence” when it comes to elections is a massive ticking time political time bomb for a number of reasons.
But one thing is clear, we’ve officially reached the danger zone when it comes to America’s fate. Things could go any number of different directions between now and January 2025. We could have some sort of MAGA “revolution.” We could have a Blue “National Divorce” because of the brazen theft of the 2024 election by MAGA. Or we could just slip peacefully into autocracy and that will be that. If we’re lucky, we endup somewhere around Hungary politically and if we’re not, we turn into a Russia clone.
A lot, of course, depends on if Trump is the 2024 Republican nominee. At the moment, it definitely seems as though he will be — even if he has to run from prison. As such, he is such a chaos agent that he could, unto himself, cause a civil war. And if it isn’t because he steals the 2024 election, it could be that his agenda for his second term is so radical and so jarring to Blue states that they demand that secessionist conventions be called.
As such, it would be Blues, not Reds, that start a civil war. But Republicans are quite clear how much they not only hate democracy but don’t believe it in it in the first place. So, they would have only themselves to blame if a National Divorce happened because Blue states were enraged by the death of our democracy.
Below is a scenario I came up with some time ago as to how we might have a civil war.
Here are some reasons why we will have a civil war.
Republicans have come to glorify political violence Something you see a lot these days within the bullshit echo chamber of the MAGA New Right is the belief that because “liberals won’t leave us alone” that they are being “driven” to extremism. There’s a lot of leading not-so-vague talk as to what all this would ultimately mean. But it’s clear that for a number of “thought leaders” within the MAGA New Right that they have accepted that at some point in the future, they’re going to have to resort to violence to get what they want.
Republicans no longer believe in democracy It is now clear that like any good fascists, Republicans no longer believe in democracy unless it’s for the specific purpose of gaining and keeping power. This view of the system they’re supposed to a part of leads them do extremely destabilizing things that help push the country to the brink.
Trump 2024 Just Trump being the 2024 nominee would, in itself, be enough to cause a civil war at some point in late 2024 – early 2025. He just has a special knack for “owning the libs” in such a way that if he stole in 2024 election and said the “quiet part outloud” that Blue States would grow so enraged that it would be they, not Red States, that left the Union and caused a Second Civil War. But Ron DeSantis is polling exceptionally well at the moment, so either Trump politically shivs him at some point, or he co-ops him, making him his VP, opening the door to DeSantis becoming America’s Putin at some point down the road a little bit.
Steve K Bannon. Bannon and his toadies are actively working to destroy the framework that weuse to administer free and fair elections. So, it’s very easy to imagine a situation where this gambit works in ways that Trump himself is too idiotic to pull off personally and it will be so egregious that, again, Blue States leave the Union and we have a Second American Civil War.
Extreme negative polarization We’re in for a bump four or so years, no matter what, because negative polarization, on a systemic level, has reached a critical mass. When one of your political parties is fascist and would rather crash the global economy instead of even appear to work for the good of the nation — you got a problem.
A lack of shared values As the big blow up on Twitter in the last 24 hours about a Stephen Colbert song and dance gag about getting vaccinated proves — we can’t even agree on what’s funny. A combination of this and negative polarization is leading to the United States being two nations, one Red, one Blue and when we get around to attempting to elect the next president, the system simply won’t be prepared for the passions it will stir up.
A potentially historic miscalculation on the part of Republicans It’s possible that, much like European powers in the lead up to WW1, when the time comes and Republicans have a choice between peacefully transitioning us into autocracy or fucking with us all so we want to take up arms, they will choose the latter not because they have to, but because they want to. It’s possible that by the 2024 — 2025 period, Republicans will see a civil war as their only choice to consolidate power, even if it’s clear that they could get everything they ever wanted within the system they so obviously loath.
And, honestly, the only thing standing in the way of an autocrat becoming president in 2025 and seizing “total control” pretty quick is any potential cleaving between MAGA and the Republican Party that takes place between now and then.
Given what I’m seeing right now, it definitely doesn’t seem as though that’s going to be a problem. At this point, it seems as though Republicans will first win power in Congress in 2022, then win the presidency (one way or anther) in 2024 and that will be that.
The autocracy we feared during the Trump Era will come, just four years later than we all expected. But…
There’s a real chance that our transition from liberal democracy to autocracy won’t be as smooth as I think — there could be a civil war. One side — or the other — won’t accept the results of the election and the country will finally buckle. All the nightmare scenarios that I came up with in 2020-2021, will just happen in 2024-2025.
If what happened in 2020 is any indication, the first sign that we would have that something was amiss would be on the local level. Instead of people who simply do their job as Americans and do the rather perfunctory duty of certifying the win of A Democrat, this doesn’t happen. In crucial voting districts all across swing states, Bannon’s “spiritual shock troops” either refuse to certify the win of A Democrat, or they go so far as to YOLO things and switch the win to Trump.
As this happens, the tension in United States escalates day by day. The very rallying cry of MAGA in 2020 — “Stop The Steal” will be adopted by the center-Left when it becomes clear that the MAGA New Right is hell bent on brazenly stealing the 2024 election in broad daylight.
But remember, the center-Left has a very different personality than the MAGA New Right. The center-Left, for all it’s problems with “cancel culture” and being “woke” is still actually connected to reality. So, there would be a struggle between the natural inclination of centrist Liberals to let the “process work” and Leftists who would want to burn everything to the ground given how corrupted everything had become.
All of this turmoil on the local level would find elections in crucial states thrown into the political realm where MAGA state legislatures and Secretary’s of State would begin to actively ensure that A Democrat is prevented from winning. Every day between Election Day 2024 and Certification Day 2025 things would grow more and more unstable in the United States as it became clear that Bannon’s long-planned “administrative coup” was actually going to work.
There would be mass confusion. Lots of lawsuits
And, remember, if Trump is involved, as all of this is going on, he would do everything in his personal power to rile up both sides. If his ongoing, progressive cognitive decline has gotten bad enough, he might even go transactional.
It would be around this point that I could see Blue governors begin to make serious plans to leave the Union. A lot would depend on what California was willing to do. But it would definitely make sense that California would be the first state to call a Secessionist Convention in preparation of leaving the Union if the 2024 election is, in fact, stolen.
But by some point between Thanksgiving and Christmas, you could see some sort of summit of Blue Governors where they debate their plans to leave the Union if the very thing that the MAGA New Right wants — to turn the United States into an autocracy — actually happens.
And as we approached Certification Day in January 2025, the last step in the crisis would happen. If you thought Certification Day 2021 was bad, just wait until Republicans are actively going over and above what they did then when it rolls around in 2025. So, the system will have been corrupted at both the local and state level. And then if that doesn’t work, Republicans will again try to throw the election into the House and Senate to buy time, if nothing else.
So, let me be clear — anyone who thinks we’re going to have some sort of MAGA New Right revolution a la The Turner Diaries — is a fool. Any Second American Civil War we have is probably going to be started by Blue States leaving the Union out of disgust that the fix is in.
Therefore, by the time Certification Day 2025 rolls around, it could very well be a foregone conclusion that we’re going to have a pretty organized civil war. Republicans have no shame and don’t apparently care about the consequences of their actions, so, lulz, we could find ourselves in the absolute worst of worlds because not only are states actively thinking about leaving the Union around this time, but the whole process of figuring out who is POTUS will be languishing in Congress. Republicans, because they are politically blood thirsty and will cheat, will win the power struggle, but there’s a chance states will begin leaving the Union.
It won’t be deranged, individual MAGA New Right blowing stuff up in some sort of rearguard action. It’s going to be a Blue Nation verses a Red Nation. A lot of the same things that happened in the First American Civil War will happen in the second. The U.S. Military will implode as people from Blue States leave it to establish a new Blue State military.
But one thing we have to expect in late 2024 to early 2025 is a mass migration of people across the country as people no longer feel safe living in an area of the country that doesn’t fit their politics. It could be rather frightening.
If it were, God forbid, to happen, I would guess that a Second American Civil War will begin between Certification Day 2025 and Inauguration Day 2025. In other words, as Trump is being sworn in, mass chaos will have erupted across the United States.
Once the hollowed out American military turns it attention to the Blue rebellion at the behest of Trump, it won’t be too long before WMD are sized and used by both sides. Not only would America bomb itself into oblivion with its eyes wide open, but it will be done in the context of WW3 definitely breaking out across the globe because the US will be too busy imploding to ensure the continuation of the post WW2 global order.
How’s that for a New World Order.
Macro trends are not on America’s side. As I keep saying, 2024 is going to be it. It’s the year when either the United States turns into a Russian-style “managed democracy” or there’s a civil war. Now, this isn’t going to be a complete list of the 50 states, but I am going to highlight some of the states that may be more problematic should a Second American Civil War erupt.
Oregon The state is really two states and, as such, is probably going to be a major flashpoint in any Second Civil War. What’s likely to happen is Portland will buck any attempt at a putsch on the part of bonkers Right wing nutjobs in the rest of the state and, as such, either there’s a really blood struggle in the state or there are a massive amount of political refugees from the Portland area as the rest of the state sides with MAGA.
Virginia Again, this is really two states. There’s the NOVA-Richmond-Hampton Roads urban corridor and everything else. It’s very easy to imagine a situation — especially with Virginia’s historic ties to the first Civil War — where the state implodes as we grow closer and closer to a Second Civil War. Too many good old boys in the rural areas of Virginia might get wrapped up in the “Lost Cause” mythos and decide to seize places like Danville (the last capitol of the Confederacy) or Richmond (another Confederate capitol.) If nothing else, simply because of the larger population of the “Blue” parts of the state, there will be significant violence and political refugees as the Blues consolidate power.
Michigan I don’t know as much about this state, but it definitely seems as though once the pre-war process of coups and political consolation begins that there will be at least a coup attempt on the part of the Far Right. Again, don’t underestimate how once you actually start murdering people that the dynamics of things change significantly. It’s very possible that there would be a coup in the state, it would fail, and there would be significant political violence as the state’s Blue population fought back and put the state firmly on the Blue side.
New York Yet again, we have a situation where once politics fails us that the otherwise banal regional differences in a state tears it apart. New York City is far more progressive than the rest of New York State and, depending on how things work out, it’s possible that New York City could become a revolutionary hotbed to the point that is tears itself away from the rest of the state and proclaims itself a Free City. This almost happen during the first Civil War. If nothing else, there will be a serious jiggling of the relationship between NYC and the rest of the state to the point where it aligns itself in any Second Civil War with New Jersey and Connecticut in a way that update New York does not. Or, again, there could be significant political consolidation as Blues from all over the northeast flee to New York and the MAGA-friendly natives of the state flee elsewhere.
Maine I really don’t know that much about this state other than a vague belief that the northern part of the state is far different than the southern part. It’s very easy to imagine significant consolation in the state one way or another as people flee to it as the rest of the country buckles. The state is big — if sparsely populated — and it’s strategic location near the Canadian border might be enough for it to be the home to large refugee camps.
Texas Texas would be in an odd situation as the country fell into civil war because its long-term political trend is shifting Blue, but it’s part of the South and a lot of people consider themselves Southern and MAGA. So either it simply buckles into its own intra-civil war or the MAGA cocksucker fucktards push out all the Blues who flee to Blue States nearby. The end result would be a lot of pissed off former Texans who would be of great benefit to the Blue cause.
California In a sense, the whole fate of the United States rests on what California does. If it simply bolts from the Union, then that significantly hobbles the Blue cause on the ground. California sitting on its hands and become its own nation in the event of a Second Civil War makes it far more likely that either Red states win or there is some sort of half-ass balkanization of the United States. But if California stays and fights, then they could provide not only the necessary economy and population for a Blue state victory — after many, many dead — but also something of a vision for what America would look like after we’re finished bombing ourselves into oblivion.
The Deep South It’s very easy to imagine at the onset of a Second American Civil War most of the old Confederacy on a political level getting extremely excited and having a massive amount of momentum to either leave the Union outright or support the Republican controlled Congress’ attempt to brazenly steal the election. Then reality would sink in — all of the Southern states have significant African American populations and once politics is no longer a viable method of solving problems then the far more brutal dynamics of realpolitik would kick in. I just can’t imagine millions of African Americans lulzing a return to the Confederacy, no matter how badly the white political establishment of those states may want it. So, even though the South has a lot of people and a big economy, it would be, on a regional basis, too busy fighting a race war to really help the Red cause all that much. If things really grew as radical as I fear they will — probably because WMD are stolen and cities start to get vaporized — it’s the Deep South where you’re most likely to see some WW2 level atrocities as radicalized whites begin to murder blacks en mass.
As for the rest of the states, their ability to pick one side or the other is probably far easier and their biggest problem would be dealing with political refugees.
Or, put another way, we’re fucked. We’re totally, completely fucked one way or another. Either we turn into an autocracy or Red and Blue begin to murder each other in cold political blood. The usual outcome of all this bullshit that we have come to expect — simply muddling along until we come to some solution one way or another — is not longer a valid option.
Ok, let’s do a quick overview of where the shadow primary for the Republican presidential nomination stands at the moment.
Trump At the moment, Trump IS the Republican primary in the sense that the real fight is not over who will be the Republican presidential nominee, but who will be Trump’s veep. Everyone knows on a visceral basis that whomever will be Trump’s veep is going to be America’s first autocrat.
DeSantis Even though there seems to be a little bit of a growing choirs of Far Right people who want to move on from Trump, I just don’t see how that is going to happen. Trump is a political monster and he will never leave the arena until something happens that absolute forces him to. Note, however, that Trump will run from prison if he has to. And, if DeSantis did magically get the nomination, Trump would probably bolt the Republican Party altogether for the hypothetical Patriot Party.
Pence I don’t know what is going on with Pence. He seems to be living in a magical political bubble of his own making. He is never going to be a MAGA Republican president. Never. The man is delusional. The only way he ever even gets any sort of nomination is if he is at the head of a Unity Ticket of some sort. And, at the moment, at least, that is never going to happen.
All the other dozen would-be autocrats of the Republican Party seem to be hanging back, in an effort to see what Trump is going to ultimately do. And, in the end, like I said, the issue is going to be more about who Trump picks as his veep than anything else.
I’m beginning to hear some chatter amongst the more conservative factions of the anti-MAGA alliance that when it comes to Trump absconding with Top Secrets to Mar-a-Lago, Biden has an obligation to pardon Trump “for the sake of the nation.”
First, fuck that.
Second, there’s only one way I would agree to such a thing — Trump would have to, legally and in writing, agree to never run for POTUS again. If Biden was to pardon Trump for any reason, Trump would have to agree to go into political retirement, never to be heard from again.
Since he would never do that, I guess Trump won’t get a pardon.
I don’t think we really appreciate what a political monster Trump is. He’s not going anywhere and no matter how much Ron DeSantis or even Mike Pence wants him to get out of the way, he’s not going to. In fact, he would obviously rather burn the United States to the ground than do the right thing and shut up and retire.
As I’ve said before, I enjoy watching the History Matters channel on YouTube and it definitely seems as though I’ve seen this video before when it comes to what’s going on with American politics at the moment. American politics is a dumpster fire which both sides calling the other Nazis and there being an ever-growing risk of stochastic terrorism.
At this point, the question is how long can we hold out? Do we start murdering each other for political reasons because Trump goes transactional or do we somehow make it to 2024 -2025 when Blues begin to call secessionist conventions for a National Divorce and we have a civil war that way? I honestly don’t know, it could go either way.
But I can tell you that it definitely seems as though we’ve given up. That it’s now a foregone conclusion that we either have some sort of civil war or we gradually turn into something akin to a political clone of Russia once a MAGA person becomes POTUS.
I honestly don’t know which direction we’re going to go. But whatever direction we go, a lot of people who have tuned out of politics are in for a rude awaking. The lives of every day Americans will begin to change rather dramatically, no matter which option we choose.
We are in the twilight of the America that we have all assumed we will always live in. The one of peace and prosperity that came about as a result of the Allied victory against the Axis in 1945. We’re totally fucked no matter what happens. The one thing that will not happen is we continue to drift through history. I suppose there is an argument that something might happen that might punt this particular problem down the road one more presidential election cycle, but I doubt it.
The Republican Party is now so radicalized and fascist that all the need to is win one election and that’s all she wrote.
One thing to keep an eye on — if stochastic terrorism really begins to be a big problem in the United States, you could very well see a huge amount of domestic political refugees begin to pop up. Blues in Red States and Reds in Blue States won’t feel safe anymore and they will flee to a state that better fits their political views.
We are beginning to see a little bit of this, in a general way, because of COVID restrictions and, now, the Dobbs decision. But if we really do, as civil wars expert Barbra F. Walter suggests, begin to see Troubles-like violence in the United States, then this process will accelerate dramatically. I’m still not quite prepared to believe we’re going to have a Troubles-like civil war when MAGA is ascendant and they are getting everything they want politically without the need for violence.
But I will admit that the Far Right has lost its fucking mind since the FBI raid on Mar-a-Lago. All this talk of “civil war” on MAGA’s part is really about MAGA people wanting to know when the rules of war, rather than crime apply and they can begin to murder people like me in cold political blood without facing any prison time.
Anyway, the point is, enjoy these last few months (days?) of peace in the twilight of Pax Americana. This could change rather dramatically at any moment.
When I was growing up, my late mother would often say that I “wasn’t afraid of the devil.” And while I’m not exactly the most courageous person on practical, physical basis, when it comes to standing up to an idea I disagree with I’m a pretty big badass. I have a strong sense of self and a strong sense of what “justice” is.
As such, I find myself growing more and more angry at the intimidation tactics of the frothy MAGA New Right. Just take a look at this:
This is the type of bullshit that people who simply want to live in a traditional liberal democracy have to put up with these days. I have no beef with conservatives, but I do have a beef with fascists. And the MAGA New Right is a bunch of fucking fascists that are either going to turn us into a Russian-style autocracy or are going to ultimately cause the death of more people around the world than the Nazis did.
While I know that sounds pretty hysterical, it’s the truth. And I wish the center-Left wouldn’t allow itself to cower behind “norms” anymore. The MAGA New Right is out for political blood — they say it very outloud these days — and there’s going to come a point when they’re going to attempt to sucker punch the forces of the center-Left.
I’m a man of peace. A man of ideas. But we “Antifa,” (if you will) have gird our loins for what may be about to come — actual, significant political violence against democratic institutions in the United States. And, what’s even worse, there is the other option, of course, which is we just turn into an autocracy without even putting up a struggle.
If that happens, then, of course, wealthy liberals will flee the country at an alarming rate, to the point that instead of freaking out about “caravans” at the border Fox News will scream about “unpatriotic” liberals fleeing the country and demand our autocrat do something about it.
Now, as is always the case whenever we discuss such a clusterfuck, there is the issue of Trump. He is such a fucking chaos agent that he could very well, unto himself, be the reason why we have a catastrophic “National Divorce” that precipitates a Second American Civil War.
He really is that bad.
I think a lot of the reason why I keep writing about this is I learned in Asia that I often do well in chaos. And it definitely seems as though the United States is going to collapse into mass, violent chaos at some point between now and January 2025.
At the moment, I can’t do anything on a practical basis to prepare, so I find myself writing a lot about it because it makes me feel better to turn my very real abstract fears into something a little bit more concrete.
Anyway, I have no idea what we’re going to do. Get ready for the “Fourth Turning” or “Great Reset.”
I hate to talk about the pseudoscience of The Fourth Turning, but it’s an handy way to talk about what I fear will happen between now and January 2025. All systems are go for a significant change in the lives of everyday Americans, we just don’t know if it will be a final descent into autocracy or if it will be something akin to a civil war / WW3.
The chief reason why I believe this to be the case is the absolute fidelity that dingus Trump continues to have over the MAGA base. No good can come of this situation. I say this because it seems as though a lot Twitter liberals, who should know better, continue to assume that just because they “hope” that Something Will Change in regards to Trump should he be indicted, doesn’t mean it will.
Or, put another way, a lot of brand name people on both the Right and the Left seem to think there is some limit whereby Trump will get the hint and step aside for the good of the nation, or, for the good of Ron DeSantis and the Republican Party, if nothing else.
And, welp, I just don’t think that’s the case.
I think Trump, in his own very stupid way, is prepared to literally destroy the United States rather than personally either have to move aside for DeSantis or to go to jail. Have we learned nothing from what happened around January 6th? As such, we are primed and ready as a nation for a historic catastrophe. The likes we haven’t seen domestically since the First American Civil War and internationally since WW2.
There is a real greater-than-zero-sum chance that there really will be a Great Reset. That, in a sense, we’re going to have an End of, maybe not The World, but A World. The World we’ve all assumed we would live in after WW2 ended in 1945. And it could all begin to unravel at pretty much any moment now. All we don’t know is the specifics.
Are we going to peacefully slip into autocracy after the 2024 election and turn into a MAGA-themed Fortress America, or are we going to enter a period of rapid, violent change that will stun us all. And, would you believe, at this point, it all really depends on what ding-dong Trump does?
I continue to struggle with the implications of Trump simply refusing to get out of the way. Everyone really, really wants Trump to get out of the way for Ron DeSantis so he can become America’s Putin. And, yet, Trump is more likely to bolt the Republican Party with his MAGA base than he is to give up on his quest to become POTUS in 2024.
One other thing — the conditions for grave instability in the United States starting at (check’s watch) any fucking moment are right there in front of us. Biden is very old and Harris is young and untested. If something, God forbid, happens to Biden, then we could have a situation where there was no veep and Trump could suddenly find every reason to demand to be named Speaker of the House should Republicans take the House this year.
I just want you, gentle reader, to realize the gravity of the situation we face between now and January 2025. We’re one heartbeat away from a Great Reset. I mean, if Trump goes the Scalia route and simply peacefully shuffles off this mortal coil in his sleep — America’s cities would be burned to the ground by very paranoid, very angry MAGA New Right people.
Trump isn’t going anywhere, though, most likely and we’re all going to have to deal with the consequences of that. It’s going to get very, very messy, very, very quickly. Millions — even billions — of people could die, depending on the specifics of any supposed “Great Reset” or “Fourth Turning.”
We live in very dumb times. When the word “liberal” is now so toxic that you can’t even use the very true phrase “liberal world order” without crazy, frothy nutjobs on the Far Right growing very upset and paranoid, you live in very dumb times.
But the point is — since 1945, humanity has lived with unpreceded peace and prosperity because of, well, the “liberal world order” associated with Pax Americana. And since the fall of Communism, things have only gotten better for everyone involved.
And then MAGA slithered out of its black lagoon.
The thing about the decline of the American Empire is it’s happening in real time before our very eyes and, yet, we can’t process it. The average person is too busy raising their kids and paying their taxes to give the very abstract concepts that are happening all around us much thought.
But there is a very real chance that no matter which direction the United States goes — autocracy or civil war — we will see the end of Pax America and, as such, WW3 will happen. Remember, all that has to happen for WW3 to be declared is more than one major regional war break out at the same time. So, as such, even if what happens is dingus Trump in his second term pulls out of NATO and pulls troops out of ROK, then, there you go, WW3 on a plate. Because what would happen is the US leaving NATO would be a crushing blow to the post-WW2 liberal order.
As Trump “brought the troops home,” China would fill the massive geopolitical vacuum and invade Taiwan just because of, well, YOLO. At the same time, the DPRK would attack the newly undefended ROK. Then maybe Iran attacks Israel. Then maybe India and Pakistan have at it –with nukes!
The point is — we’re past the Event Horizon now. We’re in the danger zone. Something big, really big is probably going to either happen at any moment or no later than January 2025 around certification day. The bolts are popping off the United States at an alarming rate and there’s a good chance that if we don’t become an autocracy, we have a very nasty civil war with WMD used by both sides.
Regardless, not matter if we become an autocracy or have a civil war, there is going to be a Great Reset or Fourth Turning (or whatever the fuck you want to call it) and many, many people are going to die for a very dumb reason. This is it, we’re at the end of the beginning of Pax America.
I fear I, personally, will have to flee my home for political reasons when everything begins to collapse. My politics don’t fit my location. At least I havea passport.
Just when you thought things couldn’t get any more bonkers, Trump may be facing something of a Far Right Rebellion. Maybe. But two notable crazed Far Right MAGA nutjobs — Laura Ingram and Alex Jones — have either suggested it’s time for Trump to leave the political arena or stopped supporting him altogether.
Will trump leave the Republican Party for the Patriot Party?
What the what?
This is, obviously, great news for Unfrozen Caveman Autocrat Ron DeSantis. And, yet, there’s a real chance that we’re careening towards an unprecedented clusterfuck. And that would be a sizable portion of the Republican Party all agree that they want to move on from Trump and Trump simply will not do that.
I have no idea how this would play out, but, jokes on Ingram and Jones — for the time being, Trump continues to have an absolute lock on the base of the Republican Party. As such, if DeSantis was somehow magical secure the nomination, Trump could very well do a wildcat bid via something called, I don’t know, the Patriot Party. That would be a huge chunk of the Republican Party that would no longer be around to influence things.
The moment something like that happened, then we’re entering — gulp — Election of 1860 type clusterfuck where the would be mass political chaos because the usual two party system would begin to break down just as the country itself was tearing itself apart because of macro problems.
Or, put another way, Jesus Christ is the United States — the most power, wealthiest nation on earth — far, far more unstable than we’re willing to admit. And, remember, to some extent, we’ve been living with Pax Americana for the last 70 odd years. If the United States buckles, WW3 will promptly happen.
But if Trump bolts the Republican Party for a new Patriot Party….get ready, things are going to get very, very bumpy.
There are rumors that Mike Pence is seriously considering talking to the January 6th Committee. Before we all get too Mueller, She Wrote level of excited about this, we need to put some context to what we might be able to expect from such a historic event.
The thing that Pence SHOULD do, which is the John Dean of the MAGA movement, is just not going to happen. I say he should do this because the only way that man is ever going to be POTUS is as part of a Unity Ticket of some sort. He doesn’t have to become Democrat, he just has to become a MAGA apostate to the point that he inflicts serious political damage to the movement.
Or, put another way, Pence would have to “change the question” when it came to what he was supposed to do. Instead of the question in his mind being, “How do I become president?” the question needs to be, “How do I change the political equation I face so dramatically that being president is even a possibility?”
Because, as it stands — Pence is never going to be a MAGA Republican President. I seem to recall MAGA wanted to hang him, at some point in the immediate past. So, if Pence really wants to be POTUS at this point, he has to burn everything to the ground. He has to flip the circuit breaker do a hard reboot of the American political system.
In the carnage that results from him destroying the Republican Party, he could very well end up on top. Liberals would be so grateful for what Pence had done that they would vote for him at least for one presidential cycle, even if they hate everything else about his politics. This is not hard. The easiest endgame for Pence is also the most painful — but it would work.
At the moment, I just don’t think Pence has it in him. He would pray about it a lot and God would tell him to give the January 6th Committee just enough information that he could still feel as though he might have a chance to be a MAGA POTUS.
Because, just from my casual conversations with my Traditionalist relatives, they hate Democrats and liberal-progressive with such a white hot rage that they can’t even imagine a situation where someone like Pence would do country over party and for the specific purpose of saving the Republic, align himself with people he didn’t agree with politically. They’re so busy thinking of the center-Left as Satanic groomers that they’re completely blinded to even considering the idea of saving America’s democratic birthright.
So, at the moment, I have very low expectations for Pence should he testify.
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