Tag: The Fourth Turning

I’m Growing Alarmed At The Prospect Of Severe Political Violence In Late 2024, Early 2025

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

I like to think of myself as a survivor. I managed to thrive as an expat in South Korea because I paranoid and ask a lot of questions. I like to think a few steps ahead in case the absolute worst happens.

Well, these days, I find myself going to the grocery store and wondering what I will do at some point in the near future when the shelves are bare because of a revolution or civil war. What the fuck am I going to do?

The fact that my Traditionalist relative — whom I love dearly — has clearly been radicalized into being full MAGA only adds to my alarm about the day after tomorrow. Trump as the leader of a fascist movement definitely seems to have considerable momentum behind him, even as Trump the man continues to be a big old doofus.

As I keep saying, one big concern I have is if Trump wins re-election that he will thrash around in such a tyrannical manner in the early days of his administration that even some conservatives may balk at what he is doing. That, in turn, could cause something akin to a Glorious Revolution on the part of Blues, which would, in turn cause a civil war because Red States would get upset that Trump had been deposed.

I know that’s hysterical doom shit at this point, but it’s a scenario I think about way too much.

The ironic thing about all of this is if, say, somehow MAGA Mike Johnson became POTUS, we would slip very peacefully into a full-blown autocracy. Maybe a few thousand smug Twitter liberals would flee the country, but, in general, the system would collapse into a white Christian ethnostate and it would happen without any violence at all.

It’s Trump, specifically, who could cause the collapse of the United States into revolution and or civil war. He’s just so dumb and lazy that he would try to transition the US into an autocracy in such a way that would enrage many, many people who would otherwise just shrug.

But I can’t predict the future. There’s always a risk of some Black Swan event that could throw everything up in the air in some unexpected manner. And there’s always a small chance that Biden will win big enough that should ding-dong Trump start to rant about the need for a National Divorce that no one will listen to him.

I guess we’ll see.

‘Doom Spiral’

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

It definitely feels like as we enter the 2024 election cycle silly season that we’ve entered a doom spiral. There just doesn’t seem any way — barring some sort of major Black Swan event — for us to avoid Something Bad happening in late 2024, early 2025.

At this point, in spring 2024, it seems the only possible way we avoid some sort of catastrophic political disaster in late 2024, early 2025 is if Biden wins in something akin to a landslide and when Trump starts to scream about the need for a National Divorce to keep him out of jail — everyone ignores him.

That’s it. That’s all I got.

If anything else happens, we’re totally and completely fucked. The country is just too tightly wound for us to make it through the 2024 election without some sort of severe, unpreceded political violence.

I hope I’m wrong. I really, really do. And I can’t predict the future — anything can happen. But I AM alarmed at how batshit insane things already are in our political system and only getting worse.

So, who knows?

Fascists In The Family

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

Holy shit. This weekend was the first time that I felt my far more conservative relative had crossed the Rubicon into pure cut fascism. Now, before I begin, my conservative relatives have been VERY GOOD to me and very gracious to save my sorry ass on a number of occasions.

So, this is not personal. This is just an alarming political observation.

I bring this up because I have a regular monthly political discussion with one of my intelligent, college educated conservative relatives. I have been trying to avoid these conversations of late, but this time we got into it.

The most alarming part of the conversation was that my relative — whom I love dearly — was officially all-in for MAGA and Trump. They continue to have reservations about Trump the man, but they are totally willing to give up their American democratic birthright to the autocratic aspirations of Trump the idea.

It’s all very alarming. When pressed, my conservative relative agreed with me that only something like Trump murdering someone would be a “red line” that would prevent them from supporting him in the 2024 general election.

Now, there is obviously a lot to unpack here.

The key thing that I notice is how similar to 1850s antebellum America the conversation was. Replace “trans rights” or “abortion” with “abolition” and all the arguments on both sides would be identical.

I pressed my conservative relative — whom I love dearly — about the idea of a National Divorce and they did not dismiss the idea out of hand. It seemed as though the idea of smug Twitter liberals talking down to them would determine if they were willing to tear the country asunder or not if, say, Trump lost the 2024 election.

All of this is very much a potential dystopian hellscape. The only glimmer of hope that I could find from the conversation is what my conservative relative — whom I love dearly — my do if all the as of now rhetorical things Trump could do in his second term became a reality.

There is a very small chance that if Trump did, in fact, go full Tyrant on America that that, unto itself, might cause my principled conservative relative to sit up and take notice. That, of course, sucks because we would have to go through the chaos and turmoil of having a full-blown tyrannical president.

I say this because my far more conservative relative simply can not believe that Trump would actually do all the tyrannical things that he very clearly says he wants to do in a second term. They totally dismiss Trump’s autocratic, tyrannical leanings because he wasn’t able to implement his autocratic rhetoric the first go round.

As such, if Trump literally does go full tyrant in 2025 there is a very small possibility that, on principle, my far more conservative relative might balk at such policies. Of course, that won’t help ME much because I could be dead after an ICE agent shoots me because I won’t shut up about how I think Red King Trump is a fucking cocksucker.

All I can say is late 2024, early 2025 could be fucking lit. We could see a series of surreal events not seen since the end of the Civil War.

We Are In Serious Trouble

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

If my recent conversation with my far more conservative relative — whom I love dearly — is any indication, we are in serious, serious political trouble heading into the 2024 election cycle. The person is college educated, wealthy and intelligent, and yet, they are all in for Trump and MAGA’s fascism.

Now, I fear, I know what people in Germany felt in the early 30s as the Nazis were consolidating power. Christian Nationalism is now so mainstream within Traditional conservative ranks that there is No Red Line for Trump other than, say, them seeing him murder someone with their own two eyes.

Things are so bad, I fear, that if Trump is re-elected that the only Red Line that may exist is the personal. If Trump becomes president and comes directly after me and people like me, then, yeah, maybe my far more conservative relatives might sit up and take notice.

But, at the moment, they are so wrapped up with the “crisis at the border” that they are willing to give up their democratic American birthright with their eyes wide open. And, as I’ve long said, if every election your democracy has is existential then…you’re probably not a functioning democracy anymore.

I feel like a broken record saying shit like this all the time. But, I just don’t know what to tell you. We’re in a lot of trouble.

Is The Petite Singularity Near?

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

It will be interesting to see if just as the so-called “Fourth Turning” strikes the United States in late 2024, early 2025, so, too does a technological “Petite Singularity.”

If a company like OpenAI manages to invent AGI, then everything could change very, very quickly. AGI will have a near-instant influence on the economy because many, many jobs will be considered moot by the fucking greedy captains of industry.

It will be interesting to see how things sort out. I continue to be very curious about the intersection of politics and technology going forward. I still believe there is a pretty good chance that MAGA will evolve into a neo-Luddite movement that is against things like AI.

I do continue to believe that we’re in the middle of a vibe shift of some sort that will fully come to fruition — one way or another — in early 2025. I think we’re going to lurch into the future in late 2024 and we’ll all wake up in January – March of 2025 and realize a real sea change in both culture, technology and politics has happened.

Only time will tell.

Trump Is Actually A Really Weak Candidate In 2024

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

The case could be made that but for how racism and misogyny are warping American political life, Trump would lose in a rather historic manner. Trump is just a bad candidate.

But the thing you have to accept, though, is because of the MAGA permission structure created by Fox News, et al, is that even though Trump is a weak candidate on a persona level — he could still win.

That’s why it’s so difficult for me to game out what might happen later this year. And that doesn’t even begin to address the very real possibility of a Black Swan event that will throw everything in the air.

So, there are two different forces at work. There are the macro forces that continue to give Trump the Idea momentum and there are the tactical problems with Trump that make him a very, very weak candidate. As such, I dunno. It could go either way.

And, what’s more, there is a real possibility that no matter what happens there could be severe political violence in late 2024, early 2025 because either Trump loses and there’s a civil war or he wins and he causes a Blue Revolution.

So…pray?

We’ve Given Up

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

What the fuck are we going to do about Trump. He tectonic demographic and political history forces that have put him in the situation he’s in are so powerful, so potent that it definitely seems he’s going to become POTUS again, no matter what.

Then the shit is REALLY going to hit the fan.

A second Trump Administration would be a total, fucking catastrophe in a way not seen since 1865. It would be truly ironic if we found ourselves caused by a civil war that Lincoln wanted to prevent in 1860 and one that Trump wanted to cause in 2024.

It’s really going to be interesting to see how bad things get. Everything is so fucked up and there doesn’t seem to be any ready way to fix things going forward. Trump is so dumb and yet so powerful as an idea to the MAGA fascist New Right that, lulz…virtually ANYTHING could happen between now and early 2025.

We Continue To Overestimate Trump The Man & Underestimate Trump The Idea

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

Trump, besides being a malignant ding-dong, is something of a political terrorist. And he get his power from how people conflate his political power with actual power as a person. Politically, because he is an avatar for some pretty messed up shit in our political system, he is something of a God King.

But as an actual human being, he’s just a lazy, dumb piece of shit.

The point is — if he becomes president again, it will say more about us as a nation than him as a political leader.

He’s not a Great Man. He doesn’t warp history to his personal needs, he just rides its trends. And, at the moment, there is a macro trend towards the United States become a white Christian ethnostate — or being forced to decide if it wants to become one — and, as such, Trump could very well become POTUS again.

This, despite what a fucking idiot he is.

So, I dunno. It really could go either way this fall. And if Trump becomes POTUS again, we will have only ourselves to blame.

Some More Idle Musings About Trump & Hitler From A Political History Standpoint

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

The 2024 election could very well give political historians a great deal more insight into Hitler’s democratic assumption of power in 1933. I say this because Trump is demonstrably a weak candidate at this point. And, barring some Black Swan event, he should be in line to lose to Biden in a pretty dramatic way.

But because of two issues, Trump could STILL become POTUS.

One is how fucked up our political system is. Even semi-functioning democracies like ours have a political ebb and flow to them on a macro basis and as such, Trump remains 60,000 votes in five swing states away from being POTUS, no matter what the fuck he does.

The man is above the laws of the state and of politics. He could eat someone. He could murder someone. He could marry Ivanka. He. Can. Do. Anything and STILL be 60,000 votes in five swing states away from being POTUS again.

The other issue is Trump’s supporters like the “idea” of Trump. They want a white Christian ethnostate where there those sweet, sweet white babies are plentiful and gay people know to be quiet and stay in the closet. Which makes you wonder if that’s what happened with Hitler as he rose to power. To this date, people continue to debate how inevitable it was that Hitler, specifically would become the leader of Germany.

And if Trump is re-elected this year, then the case could be made that the two men are a lot more similar than you might think. Both had a certain momentum to their rise to power and, as such, when the time came, History Found A Way to part the seas so they could take over their nations.

But we’re not there yet. It could go either way. On paper, at least, Trump should lose. But, then, on paper, there was no reason to believe Hitler would be named Chancellor in January 1933.

And yet he was.

As such, I think there is a 50 / 50 chance at the moment that Trump will become POTUS again and all hell will break loose. Some stunning events could happen starting in late 2024, early 2025. Things that we’ve simply never seen before in American political life.

Political opponents might be snatch off the street or flee the country. Thousands of wealthy, well educated people might vote with their feet and leave the country. The idea of “show your papers” might be the central issue of the day. A Constitutional Convention might be a very real possibility.

What’s more, it’s possible that Trump will be so bad at being a tyrant that the Poors in Blue States who don’t have the means to leave the country might actually pull of a General Strike the crashes the economy and forces the U.S. Military to do something about Trump. (Not that I’m advocating anything.)

Anyway, I’m waiting for some future historian to write “Hitler And Trump, a Dual Biography.”

What Am I Going To Do About Getting An Editor For My Manuscript?

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

It seems as though the thing that may slow me down some going forward is simply not having the funds to get someone to edit my manuscript. I live in poverty, so it’s going to take me a while to save up the funds to get someone to edit the manuscript.

My heroine has a sleeve tattoo much like this one that Megan Fox now sports.

As such, I think I may need to readjust my timetable some. I’ll have a fished third draft done before July 22, I think, but because of the money situation, it could be early next year before I can begin to query.

Now, obviously, I could just query without the middle step of getting an editor. And I may do that, but I haven’t made up my mind yet. I’m torn. On one hand, I want to present the absolute best manuscript I can when I begin to query. But at the same time, lulz, I’d like to begin to query before I drop dead.

And there is the issue of the Petite Singularity and The Fourth Turning to worry about. It could be I’ll be too busy trying to flee an imploding United States in early 2025 as the the disembodied mind of Trump uses a robot army to take over.

Or something. I’m worried about something like that happening.

And, yet, the argument could be made that the longer I have to wait to query because of the editor situation, the more I can have ANOTHER novel in the series finished and ready to sell. And that doesn’t even begin to address the issue of the scifi novel I have rolling around in my mind.