Month: December 2020

Second American Civil War In An Autocracy Without An Autocrat


by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

The explosion in Nashville seems to have been an attack on infrastructure, which is rather ominous. It definitely seem as though dark forces are aligning to strike at some point in the future if they don’t get what they want. Which, given what’s going on, seems like Trump Stays In Office.

And I continue to get a significant trickle to this site of people who think a Trump coup and or a Second American Civil War is imminent. All the conditions for such things to happen are there, but for one: Trump isn’t the autocrat people like me thought he was. He’s just an avatar for the rot and rage in the American political system — he has been successful to date by just being himself. He hasn’t had to show any political leadership on his own. He hasn’t forced the issue when necessary and he hasn’t done any and I mean ANY of the prep work to seize “total control.”

If Trump really was some sort of political genius, he would have struck months ago. He would have goaded the Blue States into secession, destroyed them and rebuilt them in his own image. And, then, we would be an autocracy. Then the fucking shithead fucktard cocksucker of MAGA-Qanon-Patriot Party would have gotten what they wanted.

But, Trump’s not an autocrat.

So, everything is there for a coup, civil war and autocracy, but for someone to play the autocrat. If Trump does attempt some sort of coup at this point, it’s most likely going to be by going transactional on Twitter. And I still think that if a civil war happens in the United States it will be at some point between, say, 2022 and 2025. The radical forces in the American political system need to stew in their juices a few more years so they can organize better.

Thus, if Trump lashes out in the final days of his administration in an effort to stay in power, he may cause a serious setback to the effort to turn the United States into an autocracy in the coming years. The thing about Trump is you never know what to expect. He may just allow us to drift into a Biden Administration, or he may self-own in a pretty spectacular fashion.

The Great Irony Of When #MoscowMitch Plays ‘Barry Goldwater In August 1974’ On January 20th, 2021


by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

If you believe as I do that Trump is going to self-own in some spectator fashion in the final days of his administration, then it’s at least possible that the thing we’ve all hoped would happen one day, #MoscowMitch takes a delegation of senior Republicans to the White House and tells Trump “he’s gotta go,” may happen at the absolute very last moment.

It would be a surreal irony if after five years of terrorizing America, Trump’s entire political legacy is defined by a few days in early 2021. I struggle to imagine a situation where Trump is actually able to successfully pull of a coup. He’s just not done the hard autocratic prep work necessary for it to happen. If he does attempt a coup, he won’t have even a thin veneer of legality to cling to. I guess it’s at least POSSIBLE some sort of surreal event might happen January 6th, but it would be done in the broader context of something extra-political or extra-legal having had happened as well.

So, it’s pretty easy to imagine Trump is hold up in the White House the evening of January 20th, 2021 and it is then, at last, that #MoscowMitch plays Barry Goldwater in August 1974 and attempts to negotiate Trump physically leaving the White House.

If Trump really does refuse to physically leave the White House, it would be the seminal event of his era. Everything that happened before would be framed relative to those fateful hours between when Biden was sworn in and when we finally managed to get Trump to leave the Oval Office. What would have otherwise been a value free — if turbulent — few years in our nation’s history would suddenly be something of 9/11-sized cultural significance.

Why A Trump Coup Attempt At This Point Would Be Quixotic


by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

There’s a lot of talk about Trump staging a coup these days, so let’s go through different scenarios to see how successful they might be.

January 6th
This is yet another day in the inevitable march towards Biden becoming president that MAGA shithead cocksuckers think they can somehow magically prevent Biden from ever becoming president. There are a series of things Trump could do at this point. MAGA people in Congress will challenge the Electoral vote and obviously delay things for a few hours — maybe even 24 hours if they are big enough assholes. And there are plenty of really dark scenarios whereby Pence doesn’t do his job, or there’s violence in Congress itself or Trump goes transactional on Twitter as all of this is happening. But the fact remains — Trump has not done any prep work to pull of a successful coup. There were a multitude of autocratic things Trump COULD have done over the last four years so he was able to successful steal a second term…and he didn’t do any of them. So, even under the most favorable of coup conditions…all Trump does is just destroy himself politically and damage the MAGA movement for a few years.

Wag The Dog
Under this scenario, Trump effectively starts WW3, thinking he can pull a Constitutional fast one one us — while we’re distracted by a war with Iran or the DPRK (or both) he simply never leaves office. This is just silly. Of all the civil society institutions in the United States, I have the most faith in our military to Do The Right Thing when the time comes. Even if WW3 starts, when January 20th comes around, Trump is no longer POTUS. The US. Military was able to wage a massive, global two front war, I think they can handle both waging WW3 and getting rid of an asshole POTUS. But given how stupid Trump is, I can definitely see why he might think he could pull such a thing off.

Downfall
In this scenario, Trump loses his fucking mind (probably at some point after January 6th) and really leans into going transactional on Twitter. He tells his MAGA shithead cocksucker followers to blow shit up or attempt to secede from the Union or whatever in a last ditch effort to stay in power no matter what. He might even — gulp — go so far as to blackmail the United States because he still has control over our nuclear arsenal. Or he might grow really fucking passive aggressive on Twitter, suggesting “liberals want him to kill himself” or some such bullshit. But in the end, this, too, would be very dumb.

The key thing we have to appricate is at this point, Trump staging a coup would be more a symptom of him being bonkers than any sort of actual autocratic ability. So, in the end, he will probably scare the shit out of us all in some way and pretty much just destroy himself on his way out the door.

Why Trump Was Not ‘America’s Hitler’


by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

Now, before we begin, let me note that Trump “not being Hitler” isn’t what you might think — Trump’s not Hitler not because he’s not a deranged lunatic, but he’s so lazy and incompetent he can’t exploit the conditions that would otherwise MAKE him Hitler.

Let’s put it this way — the people who voted for Trump in 2016 were on a spectrum. There were people who wanted Trump to be America’s Hitler. There were also a lot of conservatives-who-weren’t-MAGA were given a permission structure to “come home” to the Republican Party when it counted: election day. In this sense, all things being equal, Trump was set to be an American Hitler — then he blew it.

What people like me saw in Trump was a Hitler-like character. We spun all these dark, dystopian scenarios where Trump would go full-autocrat on us and start off at Putin and endup at Hitler before it was all over with. Then we spent 4 years expecting Trump to do all these autocratic things…that he never did. Trump never did some basic Hitler-like actions that could have destroyed American democracy and taken us on the path towards some semblance of a Trumplandian-Nazi America. So, the case could be made that while Trump slice the seal of autocracy and tyranny, we may have dodged a bullet for the time being because of it was Trump, specifically, who was elected in 2016. If it had been anyone else, then they would have had the wherewithal to actually be an American Hitler.

The surreal thing is Trump, in a frantic attempt to stay in power, may change the entire context of the Trump Era. If Trump destroys himself politically by attempting to seize power through extra-political or extra-legal means, then it’s possible that he will so enrage Americans that for one, brief moment, we’ll be united it how much we all hate Trump.

Then, of course, we’ll descend into finger-pointing and recriminations. And, remember, the conditions that put Trump in the position to become an American Hitler will still be there, so it could be someone younger and more focused who ultimately does the deed.

But it definitely seems as though we’re careening towards some sort of “political 9/11” between now and January 20th. How exactly that will happen is anyone’s guess. Even if Trump attempted some sort of American Reichstag Fire in an effort to stay in power, it’s just too late. He’s done none of the hard work that Hitler would have done in Trump’s position.

So, in the end, it’s possible Trump might, just might, punt America’s lurch towards Nazi-style tyranny down the road a decade or so. But we’re not out of the woods yet. Anything can happen now MAGA has enjoyed power for four years.

‘#ETTD’


by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

America definitely has a Soviet Union in August 1991 vibe to it right now. If my Webstats are any indication, a lot of people across the country think — hope? — that we’re going to have some sort of Second American Civil War soon.

I generally don’t think that will happen now, but rather sometime in 2024-2025, but for one thing: Donald Trump. There are any number of different ways Trump could force the issue of a civil war as he attempts to stay in power. Now, we have to put this in perspective: Trump has done none of the prep work to do anything extra-political or extra-legal to stay in power. In other words — if he does stage a coup of some sort, it will be because he’s bonkers.

Also, if he makes any type of significant power grab, it would be, at last, a self-evident proof of what people like me have said about Trump all along: he’s a tyrant. To date, Trump has enjoyed a lot of negative-polarization support from conservatives-who-aren’t-MAGA because they like his policies but don’t like him. They just don’t feel they have any option — they support Trump because of things like cancel culture which they think will destroy them for simply being conservative.

The great irony of the Trump Era is the context of the whole thing may change in its waning days if Trump pulls some sort of extra-political or extra-legal stunt in a one last death rattle. If Trump could just control himself, then the entire Trump Era would be value free to huge swaths of the American politic. We would snap back to the political assumptions of the late Obama Administration and that would be that.

But if Trump goes transactional on Twitter in some way and real people begin to get hurt then those conservatives-who-aren’t-MAGA are going to, at last, have to face tyrannical behavior on Trump’s part that isn’t abstract. It can’t be dismissed as just Trump Derangement Syndrome. If Trump makes a power grab, it will be very difficult to say “both sides.”

Or, put another way, conservatives-who-aren’t-MAGA are going to face an existential decision — are they MAGA or not? Are they willing to support a tyrant because they fear cancel culture or not? There will be some who will realize they’re MAGA after all. But enough conservative-but-not-MAGA people will, at last, get woke and join some sort of United Front against Trump at the very last moment that Trump is going to destroy himself politically at last.

How Trump Could Start World War 3


by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

I love me some worst case scenarios and it’s pretty easy to imagine The Darkest Scenario whereby Trump starts World War 3. It goes something like this — Trump successfully boxes Iran into a corner and they strike Israel in some major fashion.

Israel sees this as an existential threat and nukes Tehran. The entire Middle East descends into war. But what, there’s more. Once the taboo of using nuclear weapons is broken a number of the Usual Suspects begin to saber rattle. While India-Pakistan and China-India are obvious, it’s possible that the DPRK might make significant military moves again ROK.

Put this in context — because of Trump’s “love letters” with Kim Jung-un, our problems with the DPRK have evaporated. But once Trump is out of office, the DPRK could come roaring back to the front of our consciousness.

Or, put another way, given how unstable Trump is, it’s not too difficult to imagine something happening in the final weeks of Trump’s time in office that causes him to switch gears with the DPRK in some dramatic fashion.

Remember — the DPRK has the means, motive and opportunity to use city-killer bombs on the United States.

Trump’s Congressional Electoral College Nullification Gambit


by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

While I doubt any effort to get Mike Pence to nullify the Electoral College votes in Congress will work, they’re likely to try. It’s possible that Pence might simply refuse to be on TV announcing that Trump has lost. As such, it’s my impression that the certification of votes by state governors will work if Pence isn’t willing to do his job.

But him doing this would be so destabilizing that there could be significant political violence. It seems to me that the goal of such a gambit would be to box SCOTUS into a up or down partisan vote. House Trump believes its best bet for success is to force a situation whereby SCOTUS decides the election like they did in 2000.

The disturbing thing about this gambit for me is not so much that it will work as it is what happens when it doesn’t. Right now, Trump has hope that he might steal the election — which he could have done very easily if he had done any autocratic prep work instead of playing golf — and when he doesn’t have that hope anymore, he may YOLO it.

As such, for about two weeks, Trump could be totally unhinged as it begins to sink in that he will, in fact, have to leave office.

So if we manage to get past a Pence Coup on Jan 6th, we have to deal with Trump decompensating and maybe even blackmailing the United States with his near-absolute ability to launch nuclear weapons.

TNSTAAFL: Trump’s $2,000 Stimulus Check Gambit Is Ominous



by Shelt Garner
@sheltgar

Like previous beleaguered presidents in our history, Trump is beginning to get desperate. Coming out for a $2,000 stimulus check is not nearly the manna from heaven that the populist liberals of Twitter would have you to believe.

Trump sees such a gambit is as not only a way to stick it to #MoscowMitch, but a way to shore up his support with the public should he attempt extra-political or extra-legal methods to stay in office. There’s a reason why he wanted to make sure he signed the first stimulus checks — it worked. A lot of people, especially Hispanics in Florida, noticed who signed the checks and voted for him.

Think of it as political “There’s no such thing as a free lunch.” Trump isn’t asking for the money out of the kindness of his heart — he has sinister motives. He’s beginning to think in strictly self-preservation terms.

We can only hope that he doesn’t finally snap and start, I don’t know, blackmailing us all on Twitter by suggesting he might blow the world up if he can’t stay president.

Advice To The ‘Patriot Party’


by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

First, — eat shit you fucking fascist shithead cocksuckers.

Now that that’s out of the way, I would suggest to would-be Patriot Party founders to have some vision and think outside the box. Put your stick where the puck is going to be, not where it is now.

So, in that sense, don’t see the Patriot Party as the MAGA party, see it as the neo-Luddite party. Remember, Elon Musk could very well destroy the trucking industry virtually overnight with self-driving semis. That’s three million people out of work right there.

As such, if you’re going to be thinking up some sort of National Socialist American Workers Party ideology, I would suggest you attack technology. Or, specifically, worker-replacing technology. This is something that would give you broad appeal in both the far Right AND far Left. If you played your cards right, you could totally upend the entire American political system in fairly short order.

But I would also note that Trump seems primed to flame out politically in a rather dramatic fashion. You might want to look for a new leader who can articulate this anti-technology agenda in a smooth, toothy fashion. Trumpism without Trump.

I don’t wish you good luck. But it will be interest to see what the future of the fucking fascist Patriot Party will be.

‘Downfall’


by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

I feel I have a certain insight into Trump’s mind because he reminds me a great deal of my late mother — if you added testosterone and a wealthy Queens upbringing.

Anyway, the thing I learned from my mother’s behavior is people like Trump have a certain power from their instability. You just never know how they’re going to react to something. Are they going to flip out or are they going to take it calmly like a normal human being.

Having said that, there’s an element of Trump’s mentality that we’ve been kind of eyes wide shut about. Let’s call it the “Downfall” endgame. In this scenario, Trump’s mind falls into a logic trap and he snaps mentally. It would be at this point that he scares the shit out all of us.

So, let’s say his last-ditch effort to overturn the election fails on Jan 6th. He has about two weeks to wreak havoc. He could go transactional on Twitter in any number of different ways. He would demand MAGA murder liberals in cold blood. He could demand secessionist conventions in Red States. Or, things could get far, far darker.

He might start to get really, really passive aggressive on Twitter. To the extent that he starts talking about his ability to launch nuclear weapons and how he’s “protecting America” by being in office. If that wasn’t enough to scare the shit out of everyone, he might start to whine about how everyone hates him and liberals would be happy if he was dead.

I’m not joking — this is a real possibility.

This brings up the idea that Trump could very well hold up in the White House and refuse to leave. While a lot of Twitter liberals seem to express a certain glee at this prospect, in reality having to coax Trump out of the White House isn’t exactly something I would like to see the country have to go through.

But it gets worse.

What if, by that point, he’s so far gone that he goes the Downfall route. The implications of this would be staggering. It would be his final selfish act. Because it would be something that would-be Patriot Party people could hang an ideological agenda on.

Trunp-as-martyr would scramble our politics for a generation.

And, yet, that scenario is so fucking dark that I don’t like to think about it for no other reason than in the end Trump is a physical coward and for him to do something so drastic would mean he REALLY had lost his mind.

Anyway, he’s something I wrote about trying to get Trump out of the White House a few years ago.

9/10ths
a story fragment of a possible near future
by Shelton Bumgarner

April, 2019

The eyes of the world were on the White House.

Just moments before, President Donald J. Trump, 45th president of the United States, had been convicted by 67 members of the Senate for a whole list of high crimes and misdemeanors. Trump had for weeks now been ranting on Gab about his case in the Senate, bouncing back and forth between threats to start a war with Iran or the DPRK and not-so-subtle hints that he might take his own life should he be convicted by the Senate.

And, now, at last, the moment of truth had arrived.

Trump legally, at least, was no longer president, but he had been oddly silent since the verdict had been announced with great fanfare from the well of the Senate. Trump’s conviction had come after months of investigations on the part of the now Democratic Congress. The length and breath of Trump’s malfeasance discovered by these hearings had rocked the nation to its very core. On more than one occasion, MAGA talking heads on cable news had been interrupted by astonishing breaking news that left them, for once, unable or unwilling to defend the president.

The hearings had ground on for months to such an extent that Trump’s approval had slowly drifted to the 20s and stayed there consistently. Trump’s support was now made up of the very rich and the very poor. Oddly, despite Trump’s near constant demands on Twitter for violence on the part of his supporters, little, if any was reported. Trump had grown so frustrated that he had all but abandoned Twitter at one point for the more receptive Gab social media platform. Though on more than one occasion Rudy Giuliani had made it very clear it was within the rights of the president to declare martial law if he deemed it in the best interests of the nation. More than one delegation of Senate Republicans had gone to the White House to explain to Trump that he was going to be convicted, no avail. Trump made it clear to them, in not so many words that his simply living in the White House made him president, a sentiment best expressed by the legal saw that, “Possession is 9/10ths of the law.”

Finally, a post to Gab came out: “My so-called ‘conviction’ is the work of the Deep State and as such illegitimate. I remain president.”

This set off a chain of events, the likes of which Americans had never seen. Suddenly, everyone on Twitter became a Constitutional scholar as everyone studied the exact wording of the Constitution as to what happens if the president is removed from office by the Senate. The wording is quite clear: he or she is no longer president and that’s it.

Nowhere in the Constitution did it explain what to do if the president simply decided to ignore the Senate. What’s more, nowhere in the Constitution did it state what to do with the nuclear launch codes should a president be removed from office and he refuse to accept the decision of the Senate.

The next few hours were chilling as they were surreal for millions of people not just in the United States but around the globe. The issue of Trump’s physical access to America’s nuclear launch codes was suddenly at the forefront of everyone’s mind. Though it was finally announced that while the nuclear football remained in Trump’s possession, Sec. of Defense Mattis had ordered the American armed forces to stand down for the duration of the crisis.

Trump, on Twitter, was as defiant and unhinged as usual.He threatened to kill himself. He threatened to start a nuclear war. He vowed to declare martial law.

The usual suspects on cable news did their best to spin all of this for Trump. As an anxious nation waited for the now former president to leave the White House, a cavalcade of former Republican Senators and Trump White House staffers attempted to make the former president’s case. Their final argument was that for the good of the country, Trump should be allowed to remain president, despite his lawful conviction by the Senate.

Things began to move rapidly at this point.

Vice President Pence was sworn in but Chief Justice Roberts in a dark, somber event in the Old Executive Building. Meanwhile, it was learned Trump had quietly replaced his Secret Service detail with a private security force that made it clear it was prepared to defend Trump until the bloody end.

At this point, two things happened. A final bipartisan delegation of Congressional leaders came to the White House grounds under the flag of truce. During the course of an hour-long meeting, Trump screamed at them that they had never supported him and the world would be better off if it just ended instead of allowed the forces of the Deep State to ruin America. He made it absolutely clear that he would never leave the Oval Office willingly.

With that, they left.

Next, a surreal, bizarre event, the FBI slowly began to surround the White House. There was much debate online and on TV about how long the nation should wait for Trump to leave the White House. CNN went so far as to do a deep dive into the exact amount of food the White House grounds might have available at any one moment.

Finally, shots rang out from the White House as the battle was joined. It took several hours but in the end, the FBI was finally able to secure the facility. Nearly a dozen personnel on both sides died during the course of the Battle of The White House.

In what would become ionic footage, Trump was quietly escorted from the White House grounds. He spent the remainder of his days ranting on Twitter and Gab that he was the rightful president.

The End.