What’s The Matter With Utah?


by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

Got this mixed up, sorry — Ed.

It appears as though there’s something afoot in the state of Utah. Some sort of January 6th-style assault on the Utah Capitol Building is being planned. Maybe. I know I’m getting a lot of hits on this Website from Utah about my dystopian hellscape scenarios.

Whatever it is, it’s happening soon — January 11th.

This is the same day, I think, Trump is doing his “Remember the Alamo” speech in Texas about his dumb boarder fence. The question is, how well organize is this attack in Utah and what are its goals? My concern is that they may declare their independence or something. If they successfully take the Capitol, they may setup some sort of People’s Government that unilaterally leaves the Union and calls for other states to do the same. Throw in Trump egging other states on and you have a real secession crisis on your hands.

There have been a series of assaults against state houses over the last few months and if they could successfully take over one, that might be a tipping point. If there was significant bloodshed during the Monday assault, that would take things to the next level.

But it’s possible I’ve gotten my information garbled or incorrect. And, yet, it will be interesting to see how everything plays out. Monday could be pretty wild, indeed.

The Prospect Of A ‘MAGA Revolution,’ Reassessed


by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

I have long suggested that any MAGA shithead cocksucker touting the idea of a “MAGA Revolution” was an idiot. And they are. They’re idiots for a number of reasons. One is, generally revolutions at least start off with a Leftist bent and also, well, any such “revolution” would likely be a civil war, not a revolution.

But, given the events of January 6th, let’s do a reassessment.

The only time I can think of that there was the prospect of a Right wing revolution was in the early days of the Nazi take over of Germany. The SA were a lot more radical than the the rest of the Nazi movement and they were quickly squashed with they got a little too uppity. The SA wanted a far more radical transformation of Germany life than Hitler was prepared to enact. So Nazism remained a somehow bland version of fascism for a lot longer than it might have otherwise. The really nasty parts didn’t pop out until a few years later.

As I understand it, it was the viciousness with which Hitler got rid of them that made people sit up and take notice that he was not the clown everyone thought he was.

So, is it possible there may be a “MAGA Revolution” sometime soon?

After January 6th, I have to say my answer is now a firm “maybe.”

The key to any such “revolution” would be Trump. If he really leaned into going transactional as he really began to lose his mind, then, yes, there might be significant rolling violence across the country that might be marketed as a “revolution.”

But the United States is a big, big country and the while things might get bloody and scary for a while, the moment Biden is in control of the U.S. Military, the dynamic of things changes rather dramatically. I guess the difference between a “revolution” and a “civil war” would be how much of any significant action on the part of MAGA had the thin veneer of legality to it and how much didn’t.

If it was a revolution, rather than a civil war, then at its onset, there would be some sort of SA / SS attacks on state capitals across the country. This, sadly, has already begun to happen. But, like I said, the United States is a big country both in geographic size and population, so while you probably could pull of a successful MAGA revolution in, say, North Dakota by simply seizing the a few cities, if you attempted any such “revolution” in a Southern state, all you would do is incite a race war.

Not that a lot of Turner Diaries reading Proud Boys wouldn’t want that, but a revolution, by definition, is even more radical than a civil war and a lot of conservative-but-not-MAGA people would likely blanch at the atrocities that MAGA “revolution” would entail from day one.

As such, what might happen is a combination civil war – revolution. In the sparsely populated Red States of the heartland, you might have secession, while in the South, you just have a regular old race war in conjunction with a “revolution.”

But all of that — at least for the time being — is rather dystopian even for me. A lot — maybe all of it — depends Trump. If he really and I mean REALLY loses his mind, then his followers may get their revolution – civil war sooner rather than later.

I still think it’s more likely to be closer to 2025.

So, as Mitt Romney would say we have to all “hold our breath” for a few more days to see which way things will go.

‘#ETTD’


by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

America definitely has a Soviet Union in August 1991 vibe to it right now. If my Webstats are any indication, a lot of people across the country think — hope? — that we’re going to have some sort of Second American Civil War soon.

I generally don’t think that will happen now, but rather sometime in 2024-2025, but for one thing: Donald Trump. There are any number of different ways Trump could force the issue of a civil war as he attempts to stay in power. Now, we have to put this in perspective: Trump has done none of the prep work to do anything extra-political or extra-legal to stay in power. In other words — if he does stage a coup of some sort, it will be because he’s bonkers.

Also, if he makes any type of significant power grab, it would be, at last, a self-evident proof of what people like me have said about Trump all along: he’s a tyrant. To date, Trump has enjoyed a lot of negative-polarization support from conservatives-who-aren’t-MAGA because they like his policies but don’t like him. They just don’t feel they have any option — they support Trump because of things like cancel culture which they think will destroy them for simply being conservative.

The great irony of the Trump Era is the context of the whole thing may change in its waning days if Trump pulls some sort of extra-political or extra-legal stunt in a one last death rattle. If Trump could just control himself, then the entire Trump Era would be value free to huge swaths of the American politic. We would snap back to the political assumptions of the late Obama Administration and that would be that.

But if Trump goes transactional on Twitter in some way and real people begin to get hurt then those conservatives-who-aren’t-MAGA are going to, at last, have to face tyrannical behavior on Trump’s part that isn’t abstract. It can’t be dismissed as just Trump Derangement Syndrome. If Trump makes a power grab, it will be very difficult to say “both sides.”

Or, put another way, conservatives-who-aren’t-MAGA are going to face an existential decision — are they MAGA or not? Are they willing to support a tyrant because they fear cancel culture or not? There will be some who will realize they’re MAGA after all. But enough conservative-but-not-MAGA people will, at last, get woke and join some sort of United Front against Trump at the very last moment that Trump is going to destroy himself politically at last.

Republicans Have Become The ‘Leopards Eating People’s Faces Party’


by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner


It is becoming clear that Trump is no longer thinking in terms of politics but rather strictly in terms of self-preservation. As such, we’re careening towards a moment in time when Trump goes extra-legal and extra-political in his attempts to stay in power. There are a number of things that are concerning me about this.

The Defense Department
Trump keeps cramming the Defense Department with cronies. I’ve read somewhere that this may be an effort on the part of Trump to find out how much he could, in fact, get away with if push comes to shove. That’s really nerve wracking because what if Trump somehow manages to move the autocratic dial a little bit. Just a little bit would freak us all the fuck out.

Mike Pence
I’m growing concerned that on Jan. 6th Trump will goad Mike Pence to simply nullify the certification of Electoral College votes by not doing his job — or not doing it in a manner that follows the spirit of the law. Remember, the point of this would be to throw things to SCOTUS in such a partisan manner that they’re absolutely boxed into a up-or-down corner. Trump wants a replay of 2000 because he’s a craven ding-dong who’s actual political skill is little more than that of Chauncy Gardner in Being There. So, it’s very possible that there will be extreme, rancorous debate in Congress over the certification of votes, but in the end, Trump will lose. Even if Pence tries to be a spanner in the works.

Trump Going Transactional
This is a real wildcard. As it becomes more and more clear that Trump is, in fact, going to actually have to leave office, it’s possible that he stops “joking” and insinuating about violence against his enemies and flat out tells MAGA to murder liberals in cold blood. Or he could begin to demand Red States hold snap conventions so they secede. Pretty much anything is on the table once Trump finally snaps mentally.

‘Downfall’
This is probably my worse fear. If we get to this stage of things, then Trump really has lost his mind. This is a very dark situation, indeed. Everything from Trump blackmailing America by suddenly bringing up his ability to use nuclear weapons to him going the literal Hitler-in-the-bunker route would be possible under this scenario.

But there are some things to take into consideration. One is Trump is not nearly as well-put-together as we keep thinking and he’s so unstable and lazy that any transactional things he does may be so half-hearted and poorly thought out that they aren’t very successful.

Yet, we’ve now officially entered the most dangerous phase of the Trump Era. Anything could happen. We could all get the shit scared out of us before it’s over with. There will be no narrative, no value as it all happens.

The Coming Trump Singularity


by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

All the great clusterfucks in human history happen when different groups make reasonable — but flawed — calculations. It’s at least possible that we’re careening towards a notable example of this.

Right now, everyone is weighing various political considerations for Trump going forward. But the thing we have to begin to wonder about is what happens when Trump stops thinking about politics and starts thinking about something far more basic — self-preservation.

If this happened, it would be the final thing that forced all the MAGA people who have said “both sides” or “I hope he won’t do that” or “I pray he won’t do that” to, at last, have an opinion. What happens when Trump decides that he would rather destroy the United States than either admit defeat and or risk going to prison in New York State.

I honestly have no idea what would happen. Either these people, at last, say, “He’s gotta go,” or they simply say nothing and let him incite political violence or whatever in hopes that it’ll all go away and they can admit people like me were right about Trump 20 years from now when it’s all moot.

It would be a fitting end to the Trump Era if he, in a rabid attempt to stay in power, destroyed everything. His political future. The Republican Party. Even MAGA itself.

Of course, if Trump destroyed everything because he went from politics to base self-preservation it would come at a massive cost. It would be rolling “political 9/11” that would scare the shit out of everyone. In fact, there are some pretty dark scenarios.

When the traditional considerations of politics no longer are an issue for Trump because, well, he’s fucking insane, then we would be in for an epoch-making type crisis. We all may start to worry about how easy, exactly, it is for the president to launch a nuclear strike.

But it might not even get that bad, but still be really scary.

It’s easy to imagine Trump going transactional in the lead up to Jan 6th. He might tell the Proud Boys to begin to blow shit up in D.C. in an effort to intemidate Congress into voting to overthrow the vote of the Electoral College. Or, put another way, Trump has been a huge stress test for the Constitution and, as such, it’s easy to imagine to situation where for no other reason than it’s an actual event that can go ways we can’t predict, the Congress certification of the Electoral College votes is a potential wildcard.

Any number of different weird things might happen — especially since the Democrat majority isn’t really very big in real terms. So, I don’t know, humans are humans and it’s at least possible that Trump might “not lose” in Congress which would, in itself, probably cause a civil war / revolution.

But even if we get pass the Congressional certification, we really would enter a surreal moment in America’s political history. The reason is — the days between Jan 6th and Jan 20th would be when Trump would have every reason to go transactional on Twitter.

He could do everything from incite political violence to demand Red States to leave the Union via snap conventions. And that’s the point when there would be a historical record scratch. Such behavior on Trump’s part could split the Republican Party a minimum.

It could even go so far as to destroy MAGA itself because, at last, MAGA would be seen for the cancer it is.

So, it’s at least possible that Trump in his thrashing about for self-preservation on his way out, destroys not only the United States, but MAGA and himself. When the crisis is all over, our entire political system could be scrambled for a few years as we figure out how to process what has just happened.

But I’m notorious for getting things wrong. Yet is is something to think about.

Prediction: Trump May Incite A Secession Crisis


by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

The curious thing about Trump is if he had any native political acumen, he would have done a major autocratic move at some point between October and just after the election. That would have likely goaded the Blue States into leaving the Union. He could, in turn, have put down such a revolt and reorganized them in his own MAGA image.

But he didn’t.

And now that he’s waited this long, his autocratic options have grown far more limited. And, yet, there’s a serious risk that once his absolute unwillingness meets his absolute realization that he lost, that his mind may lock up and he’ll go bonkers.

Because, I really don’t see any way he “crosses the Rubicon” and takes “total control” via martial law. There’s just no way he can do it. I guess he could start a war with the DPRK or Iran and try to pull a fast one on us. But it seems more likely that if he is really surrounded by crackpots and kooks that they’re going to drift towards the obvious: him going transactional on Twitter. Specifically, he may begin to demand that Red States leave the Union.

He would say that he’s the rightful president and those states who agree with him need to leave the Union. He might flee Washington for good and hold up somewhere while he goads Red States to leave the Union via conventions. He can probably get a huge swath of Red States in the central part of the country to do so because they’re white. But they have small populations and small economies, so while there would be significant political violence that would be called a “second American civil war” it wouldn’t be until the states of the old CSA got into the act that things would get lit.

But, as I keep saying, the black community simply isn’t going to allow old CSA states to leave the Union and all Southern whites will get for their trouble is a race war.

Such sedition would happen in the context of Trump finally losing his mind. I’ve long debated if Trump would “implode” or “explode” mentally in the end. It definitely looks as though he’s heading towards the latter.

As such, Republicans will face their final test — do they support Trump’s sedition or do they at last cut him loose? It seems this will be a real existential test for Republicans because at some point their absolute fidelity to Trump and his MAGA base will bump up against the cold hard fact that his behavior is, at last, absolutely indefensible and he’s a liability to their own political futures.

So, the split between people who lulz this and those who can’t take the final crazy train to sedition might — at least for one political cycle — destroy the Republican Party.

But there’s a huge caveat to all of this — since Trump isn’t an autocrat but a ding-dong, he could just, well, do nothing. He might rant a lot on Twitter, but he never finally goes transactional. He never finally takes the last step that would destroy the Republican Party.

Trump is so unpredictable — and so easy to overestimate — that we’ve still got some time before which direction he is going to go becomes obvious. But the closer we get to January 6th, the closer we come to knowing one way or another.

Once we get past the January 6th meeting of Congress, we’re going to know not only Trump’s fate, but our own.

The Upcoming Jan. 6th Congressional Electoral College Certification Shenanigans


by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

I don’t know what to make about this one. A lot of MAGA Twitter has pinned its hopes on January 6th now. They believe that all their problems will go away when Congress refuses to seat Electors they don’t like. Trump will win the election that way and MAGA can go back to putting kids in cages and owning libs who say “fuck.”

But there are some serious, serious, SERIOUS problems with this.

So, here’s what will happen under the best of circumstances for MAGA shithead cocksuckers. Someone from the House and someone from the Senate contests a slate of Electors.

The two Houses go back to their individual chambers and debate for two hours. At the end of the two hours, they vote with a simple majority winning. Here’s where MAGA dreams of four more years run into a brick wall.

Not only do Democrats have a solid majority in the House, but the Republican leadership in the Senate is actively opposed to such a ding-dong move. So, there are several reasons why all of this is damaging and disturbing.

The first is, it forces the Republicans to AGAIN be on the record about wanting to overthrow the election. Or, put another way, while will likely help a lot of the more insane MAGA Republicans with the base, the fact that the more moderate Republicans have to make a decision that is recorded is not great.

The next is an expectations game.

As we grow closer to January 6th, Trump is going to AGAIN put all his eggs in a basket that is going to break. He’s going to lose, but his followers who are willfully ignorant at this point, at least have the prospect that they MIGHT win — despite the fact that they definitely won’t — as way to “own the libs” a few more days.

It also again lets the know who is with them and who isn’t. This time, Senate Republicans will get roped into this seditious clusterfuck.

And, lastly, there’s a good chance that once Trump loses this final attempt to overturn the election, he will snap in some way and go transactional on Twitter. This, combined with the deflated nature of MAGA at that point, will lead to either some sort of snap secessionist crisis (because Trump is ranting about this on Twitter now) or just rolling political violence because, you guessed it, Trump has gone transactional on Twitter and is “joking” about the need for MAGA to remind people of the power of the 2nd Amendment.

But let me remind you of something — I, and many other people (Maggie Haberman) greatly overestimate Trump’s practical political acumen. In fact, he’s just a lazy, incompetent ding-dong. Any political violence or secessionist crisis or civil war that happens will be stuff that would have happened anyway, he just is the avatar for the specific set of events.

MAGA Seditionist Secessionist Grievances Elude Me


by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

I really struggle to figure out the specific reasons why growing number of MAGA seditionists have decided that secession — and the resulting violence — is their only course of action.

The closest reason I can think of is their devotion to their ding-dong Dear Leader is so absolute that they believe all his fraud claims and would rather destroy the Union than allow Biden to become president. But here’s the thing — this is still very poorly thought out and not very concrete.

At least with the 1860 secessionist crisis, there was a concrete fear that the South had — by definition, Lincoln being president would lead to first a retrenchment of slave power and then its ultimate destruction. That, at least, has some logic to it.

But to have such absolute support for just one person that you would rather leave the Union than accept Biden is legitimately POTUS now is rather curious. It still seems like a very abstract fear. Where is all this passion — even if it’s empty for the time being — coming from? From my conversations with conservatives, it seems it boils down to an absolute fear of the abstract concept of cancel culture. This is the idea that just by being conservative, a person risk having their lives ruined by liberal-progressive “cancel culture.” This is a really big deal for MAGA and Trump talks about it all the time.

I would suggest, however, that the real origin of our current clusterfuck is the end of the American dream for white blue collar men without a college education. In short — they can’t get laid. They feel left behind because not only can they not afford to get married and have kids, but they also feel that the growing economic power of women — with its associated sexual agency — makes finding a mate more difficult in the first place. The racism and willful ignorance springs from that, as well.

While it’s way too late, I’ll tell you how we could have fixed this problem — national service for all 18 year olds. If, say, AmeriCorps had been true national service and we had 30 or so years of all 18 year olds across the country being forced to hang out with each other for 18 months a lot of our problems would have been preemptively solved.

But’s too late now.

The damage is done. We’re just one political 9/11 event away from the entire Union States buckling and Blue and Red states actually beginning to attack each other on the battlefield.

The question now, of course, is we simply be locked in political neutral for a few years until the passions die down or will we not be that lucky.

Debunking The ‘God Old Boy Revolution’ Narrative


by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

I get the sense that across much of “Red America” — especially the South — there’s a lot of talk of a conservative revolution against liberal-progressive woke cancel culture. They get all worked up then search for talk of a Second American Revolution and end up at this blog.

The Good Old Boy Revolution

Let’s break this down.

First, I can’t think of one conservative revolution. The closest I can think of is the South seceding from the Union in 1860-1861. But that was a counter-revolution (in a sense) and more of a semi-nationalist movement formed from slave power hating Lincoln.

I suppose the thinking is — we have all these guns, why not use them to prevent Biden from taking office? Or something. There are so many problems with this line of thought. One, such a Good Old Boy Revolution would need a catalyst and would likely be more done in the context of a general secession crisis than any sort of real “revolution.”

Or, put another way, the Good Old Boy Revolution would come in the form of some sort of Trumplandia draft in preperation for war against the USA than an actual “revolution.”

Also — the person who would be the leader of the Good Old Boy Revolution is Trump and he’s just an empty suit. A ding-dong. A useful idiot for the Russians. You would need sort of a Good Old Boy Man on a Horse for any revolution to begin, much less be successful.

But, I guess, in real terms, all the talk of a Good Old Boy Revolution is more frustration that Trump hasn’t taken “total control” yet. They want Trump to do something, anything, to stay in power and, to date, he really hasn’t done much in real terms other than shoot his mouth off on Twitter.

And, so, it’s possible that we’ll just drift the next few years politically until something happens that pushes the country over the edge into a hot civil war. Maybe it’ll, thankfully, never come. But we need to be aware it’s at least possible.

American Tribulation


by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

The thing a lot of Twitter Liberals are oblivious about is how dire things are right now. They keep pontificating about the rise of fascism in the United States as if it’s a process that hasn’t happened yet — get woke, we are a fascist state NOW.

MAGA 2020.

Or, more specifically, we WOULD be a fascist state but for what a ding-dong our autocrat is. For me, all of this is very surreal because it’s like everything is there, waiting for Trump to go full autocrat….and he’s doing nothing. I can still think of a half a dozen ways he could seize “total control” RIGHT NOW…and…yet it appears as if he’s going to let Electors vote on Monday without even trying to get the Proud Boys to scare the shit out of them — or worse.

So, we lurch close and closer to a Biden getting sworn in and about half the electorate thinking he’s illegitimate. I will note something — the moment the Texas case came out of nowhere, I knew the Dead Hand of History was doing its thing. I have repeatedly said we’ve boxed ourselves into a civil war mindset and the Texas case is a prime example of that. Someone, somewhere with the ability to hand Trump his coup stepped up to the plate for no other reason than that’s where the momentum is right now.

Uh oh.

And, yet, again, Trump hasn’t done squat in real terms to attempt to seize “total control” even though many, many MAGA cocksuckers are begging him to do just that. I can only begin to believe that either Trump is going to allow a very surreal transfer of power actually happen, he’s going to go completely insane in some way, or, in the end, he’s going to finally go transactional and willfully destroy the United States after the point when we think we’ve managed to dodge a bullet.

Trump is so unpredictable, I can’t figure out what he’s going to do. In no small measure that comes from how difficult it is to figure out his motives at this point. Is it all about fundraising? Is it all about just not going to jail in NYS? If I could pin down is actual motives, then I could figure out his next course of action.

It seems more likely than not someone, or something is going to happen in a rather dramatic fashion between now and Jan. 20th….or a little bit afterwards. Let’s say Biden’s first 100 days. If we can actually get past, say, the Ides of March 2021, then things will have claimed down enough that we can all sigh a huge sigh of relief.

I feel you.

It just doesn’t seem like history is on our side right now. Electors could still get doxed, or murdered, or whatever. Trump could still get his Reichstag Fire with the help of the Proud Boys. Or Iran or the DPRK could give him cover to try to pull a Constitutional fast one on us while we’re distracted.

Let me make this clear — as a student of history, by every metric the United States is on the cusp of a historic and shocking implosion. I’m talking France 1940 or France 1789 type of shock. That the otherwise most stable, most powerful and arguably wealthiest nation in the world turn in on itself because of, what, white men without a college degree can’t get laid, is going to be one of the biggest shocks of the last 500 years.

America, 2020.

I’m wrong all the time. Hopefully, I’ll be wrong this time, too.