Month: August 2021

The Political Implications of Global Climate Change


by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

It has been speculated that global climate change was responsible for the current COVID19 pandemic. If that is the case, then the argument could be made that Trump was the first political fatality of our new hotter-than-ever age.

Watch out for that last step.

If things continue the way they are currently going, there’s going to come a point when American politics is going to change in a rather dramatic fashion — potentially a lot sooner than you might think.

If a huge chunk of Florida and Louisiana simply sink into the sea, those people — voters — have to go somewhere. Imagine what happens when Miami sinks into the sea and all those voters have to find somewhere new to live. Where ever they go, they’re going to change the political dynamic once they get settled.

And, remember, a huge swath of the the Rust Belt has been depopulated over the last few decades. If things really get as hot as we fear, then, on an existential basis, it’s easy to imagine cities like Detroit, Buffalo, and other, similar places having a rush of new residents.

Given how badly we’re fucking things up, this could happen a lot sooner than you might think — it could be so soon that our apparent inevitable march into autocracy might, if not be stopped, at least slowed or the context changed a little bit.

Anyway, what do I know. All I know is, long term, we’re fucked.

The Vision Thing For ‘The Pretty Reckless’


by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

The Pretty Reckless is one producer and one culture inflection point away from huge success. In fact, I would even go so far as to say if rock ever comes back in a sudden, big way that The Pretty Reckless are prime candidates to have an unexpected breakout hit.

The Pretty Reckless — Potential Rock ‘n Roll Saviors

The only reason why I even suggest this is possible is as of the moment, there is something of a musical genre vacuum going on. Since about 2012 we’ve been living under the hegemony of adult contemporary. It makes sense that at some point, eventually, people are going to grow tired of this dreck and look for something different — possibly old fashion rock and roll, which is what The Pretty Reckless is.

Now, some context.

The thing about this band is they’re something of a diamond in the rough. I really like them — a lot — but they’re produced in a somewhat generic manner. They’re just a rock group. To take things to the next level, they need a producer with a definite vision — my go-to rock producer for such things is Butch Vig. He did Nirvana’s “In Utero” and is the brains behind one of my favorite groups — also female vocalist led — Garbage.

It’s easy to imagine a situation where out of the blue The Pretty Reckless have a huge hit, they get a new producer and ta-da, rock is back. Of course, some of this is just me daydreaming about good music coming back, but lulz.

As a side note, I would suggest The Pretty Reckless pander to rock fans and do a cover of an unexpected Beatles song. If they came out with a rocking version of The Beatles odd-ball song “You Know My Name (Look Up The Number)” I think a lot of rock fans would eat it up.

Anyway, like I said, I think we may be doomed to living in adult contemporary hell for the rest of my life. If not even a pandemic can shake up our culture expectations, then I don’t know what can.

The Curious Case Of Usenet, Reddit, Twitter & Inline Editing


by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

We’re all in kind of a holding pattern until the next Big Thing rolls around and changes — disrupts — everything. But I will note, in passing that 25 years ago Usenet had a feature that as far as I can tell doesn’t exist in any of the available options: inline editing.

Usenet

Today, the closest we have to the Usenet of yore is Reddit, but for the ability to inline edit content that is posted. And while I totally — if reluctantly — accept that I will never get the social media platform inspired by Usenet concepts that I long for so bad, I will talk about how inline editing could be used.

Usenet

Imagine if you had an app similar to a mixture of Reddit and Twitter with a paid editorial staff and inline editing. If people could inline edit — with formatting — a webpage in the context of such an app it would blow people’s minds.

Usenet

But, like I said, I have to accept that the moment for a new social media platform is long gone. The entire Internet is mature now. We’re probably going to have to wait for $1,200 Mindcaps to come to market for anything new or innovative to occur.

Pour one out for Usenet.

Going To Spend A Few Weeks On A Creative Reset Of The Four Novels I’m Developing & Writing


by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

Watching “Mare of Easttown” kind of rattled my creative cage a little bit and raised my personal expectations for myself. As such, I’m going to buckle down until the end of August and not only do some of the reading I should have done some time ago, I’m going to also really focus on the four outlines of the four novels I have planned.

But it’s the reading that I really need to focus on. Now that I realize it’s stuff like “Mare of Easttown” that I’m competing against I am determined to up my game. Another issue is I hope if I really, really establish the outlines before I start writing then they won’t keep collapsing on me and things will move a lot faster.

All of this is growing very embarrassing given how long I’ve been working on this project, but I don’t have anyone to tell me no and it’s my life, so, lulz.

Anyway, I hope to get a lot of reading done, a lot of work one the four outlines done and maybe even dabble in a little bit of short story writing. Ideally, I would also teach myself Final Draft, but that is probably going to get punted down the road some more.

The Ballad Of Barr & Pence: A MAGA Autogolpe That Wasn’t


by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

When the history of Trumplandia is written, two people will stick out as having changed everything by what they did — or didn’t do: Bill Barr and Mike Pence.

What makes their actions so weird in hindsight is neither one of them was ever mentioned as the “guardrails” that were going to save us from Trump’s excesses. In fact, they were some of the biggest toadies for Trump — until they weren’t at very crucial moments in time.

Bill Barr — at least in my opinion — had a specific purpose when he was originally hired: end the Mueller Investigation. He wrapped that up and did plenty of really shitty things. And then in the 2020 – 2021 timeframe he did something that saved American democracy for four more years: nothing.

He sat on his hands.

So, even though Barr intimately knew on a personal basis how badly Trump wanted DOJ to indict the Bidens, or Hillary or Obama or whomever, he was able to simply slow walk all of Trump’s would-be autocratic moves so they were moot. Without Barr doing that, it’s very possible that all the autocratic things I thought up in 2020 Trump would have done and he would still be president.

Then there’s Mike Pence.

Pence is the consummate Trump sycophant. Or, at least, he was until January 6th. After defending Trump at every turn for any and everything he did, no matter how horrible or autocratic, on January 6th Pence gave American democracy a second chance by simply doing his fucking job. (Which in the specific case of certification was simply to announce the certification, he didn’t really have to do anything other than not nullify the certification by going rouge.)

And, so because of the actions of two people everyone assumed would be Trump’s lapdogs, American democracy was spared for a few years. You honestly could not make such shit up.

What happens next is up to us. We aren’t going to be as lucky, next time.

Why A Chinese Attack On Taiwan In The Near Future Might Succeed


by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

There are some assumptions we have made about the world since the end of WW2 that may not be grounded in reality anymore. One of them is the United States is powerful enough that it, unto itself, is enough to prevent a major regional war from breaking out.

And, yet, I don’t know if that’s still the case.

The specific instance I’m thinking of is China and Taiwan. China is now powerful enough that it could attempt to retake Taiwan and…what would happen? Anything? The United States isn’t going to nuke them because of MAD and the United States and China are so tightly linked on an economic level that there’s not a lot, in real terms, the US could do.

As such, the argument could be made that China — far sooner than we might expect — could made a grab for Taiwan and the United States would make a lot of noise, but wouldn’t do much about it.

The big wildcard of such event, of course, is World War 3 would start because once China proved they could do whatever the fuck they wanted, then other, similar hotspots would also erupt and we would have a number of regional wars happening at the same time that would be marketed as “World War Three.”

It could be that China will simply way for the United States to buckle as part of a civil war to strike. Or, a MAGA president might make us Fortress America and then China could strike because we won’t care about the outside world anymore.

The point of all of this is — it’s possible the existing global order is a far more fragile than we might otherwise believe.

Schlichter, Never Go Full Fascist


by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

So, this happened.

The guy above is one of a few MAGA New Right “thought leaders” who establish the talking points that will be watered down and disseminated throughout the Right wing bullshit echo chamber. These now far more palatable talking points will be parroted by your conservative relatives at, say, Thanksgiving Dinner.

That’s why such people like Kurt Schlichter are actually far more important than you might think. Even though some of what they rant about is nothing more than bad faith bullshit meant to “own the libs,” usually the general drift of rhetoric on their part does give you some sense of what they actually believe.

As such, it definitely seems as though the on-going fascist radicalization of the Republican Party continues. And, as I’ve mentioned before, it definitely seems as though should Republicans ever gain power again — they’re never going to peacefully give it up.

These days, I vacillate widely between thinking that when the MAGA New Right autocracy finally is established that things aren’t going to change the much for a while, to thinking there’s going to immediately be a civil war and or military junta established.

It’s possible that when the autocratic white Christian ethno state is finally established, the Republicans will drift towards a Russian style autocracy, but, at first things won’t change that much. There will be excesses — like the media will be purged — but for the time being people like me will be allowed to continue to rant about what fucking cocksuckers the MAGA New Right is.

Though, truth be told, if it’s Mike Pompeo who is our autocrat, that may not last very long –that guy is a real asshole who, once president, will be just as corrupt and autocratic as Putin has ever been.

Anyway, back to Schlichter. His Twitter thread definitely gives us a sense of what we’re up against. It’s not like they’re hiding their vision for America. All I can compare it to is how Hitler wrote a whole fucking book laying out exactly what he was going to do….and then he did it.

I can’t predict the future, but the macro trends definitely indicate that the conditions are there for at some point between now and January, 2025, there is going to be some sort of catalyst that forces us to make the existential choice of autocracy, civil war or military junta.

The Right, as exemplified by Schlichter are locked and loaded to strike Blue States on an ideological basis. They’ve established what they’re going to do and why they’re going to do it. But it hasn’t happened yet. Something would have to happen for me not to think we’re just going to peacefully transition into autocracy.

Who knows at this point. Definitely not me.

My Hot Take On The Specific Chronology Of Trump’s Attempted Autogolpe


by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

The key issue — the one that set up Pence to save American democracy for about four years — is “1/03: DOJ threatens mass resignation; Trump backs down.” It is a testament to how Trump has always been playing himself that he backed down at that point.

A true Great Man would have pushed ahead, despite mass resignation. The autocrat is willing to endure the slings and arrows of outrageous fortune — see, also, how Hitler handled the SA — while an idiot ding-dong like Trump goes through all the trouble of getting to that point then backs down.

By January 3, 2021, it was well established that on a political level, Trump was above the law. Nothing, in real terms, would have happened to him if there were mass DOJ resignations. He could have easily gotten what he wanted — to stay in power — and the mass resignations would have been seen as just a blip. This would especially been the case once he was in second term and he could simply purge the media to control the narrative of how he secured a second term.

That, at least, is what an actual autocrat would have done.

The question is, will it be Trump that attempts to shepard us into autocracy in the 2024 – 2025 timeframe, or will it be someone far more adept like Ron DeSantis? But as I keep saying, we have three options ahead of us as of the moment: autocracy, civil war or military junta.

Who organized the Pence Gallows in front of the Capitol?
Sometimes, the biggest tell about an event comes from something we simply take for granted. In this case, it took some planning to set up a gallows for Pence on January 6th. That thing didn’t just magically appear out of nowhere. It suggests that there was a specific point to the insurrection — scare the shit out of Mike Pence so he wouldn’t certify the vote.

Why did Trump give Jim Jordan the Medal of Freedom on January 11?
Again, it’s easy to dismiss this by saying Jordan was such a long-term toady of Trump’s that of course he would get the Medal of Freedom before Trump left office. And, yet, the case could be made that Jordan did something specific in that prompted Trump in his zero-sum-game mind to feel compelled to give Jordan a “gift” in exchange for…what? Silence? Actively fucking up any investigation into what happened January 6th?

Why did a Proud Boy leader visit Trump in the days before January 6th?
This is one of those things where what actually happened is kind of nebulous. Did a Proud Boy leader get a tet-a-tete with Trump in the White House? What did they talk about? There are a lot of conflicting stories about all of this, but someone needs to ask some questions to figure out what happened.

How much did Trump know about the plot for January 6th?
It is reasonable to believe that Trump was the driving force for what happened on January 6th….but just like with the Russia conspiracy stuff, it was probably very chaotic and haphazard. Trump probably would dip in to a meet every once in a while to give “his people” a general goal then wonder off. This gives him legal “plausible deniability” because all he had to do was incite the mob — he likely didn’t know exactly that was going to happen. He just knew there was a good chance they would attack to Capitol in such a way that it could scare the shit out of Pence so he didn’t do his job.

DeSantis Is Politically De Dangerous To De Trump


by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

Ron DeSantis

Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis is very, very popular with my conservative relatives. The origin of his popularity is he is perceived as a “fighter” who attacks “the libs” on every front for any reason.

This is probably the most destructive of Trump’s legacies and the thing that could ultimately be his political downfall. My theory is this — now that Trump has established the blueprint for being a successful Republican politician, he no longer serves much purpose for his many, many would-be autocratic successors.

Trump, unto himself, is a blockage in our now inevitable transition into autocracy. Trump is just a big old ding-dong who is way too lazy and idiotic to successfully shepherd us into autocracy. His would be younger, more focused — and potentially more bloodthirsty successors, however — don’t have those problems.

As such, it is within the realm of possibility that there will come a political tipping point where people like DeSantis support Trump’s political demise because he’s outlived his usefulness. He has shown the path to autocracy, but doesn’t have the good sense to get out of their way, so they’ll be there throwing punches when the end comes, if it ever does.

Or, put another way, DeSantis, specifically, is growing popular enough that either Trump tries to co-op him by naming him is 2024 veep or he’s able to destroy Trump should the two have at it at last.

At the moment, DeSantis appears popular because he holds out the promise of MAGA without Trump. A lot — A LOT — of people who support the craven, racist ideals of MAGA can’t defend Trump and DeSantis gives them an out. In their mind, if the debate over MAGA is strictly one over polices — and not the fascist and ethical implications of it all — it’s a win.

They point is — as I keep saying, America is an autocracy without an autocrat. Once the autocrat is in position, we’re probably just going to transition into an autocracy and that will be that. There is a chance, of course, that either the military steps in or we have a civil war or both.

I can’t predict the future, I don’t know.

But at the moment, DeSantis has it within his power to destroy Trump. It will be interesting to see if he uses it, or allows himself to be co-oped.

When Every Election Is Existential, Your Democracy Is Undead


By Ender

These are the times that try men’s souls, as Thomas Paine would say. The reason is, we now are confronted with the cold, hard fact that every election we have now is existential — if Republicans gain power again, they’re unlikely to ever peacefully give it up.

Combine this with Republicans’ growing glorification of political violence as a means to an end and their blaming of liberals for “forcing” them to radicalize and you have a recipe for disaster.

In the end, we either have a civil war with the specific objective of destroying the Republican Party or we slip into autocracy peacefully. At the moment, that’s what I think is going to happen. It will become political conventional wisdom that that Republicans — one way or another — always win the presidency, people stop voting and ta-da autocracy.

The only reason why I’m willing to entertain then notion of a civil war in even abstract terms is the MAGA New Right’s alarming, and growing, glorification of political violence. They keep ranting on Twitter that their fascist radicalization is the fault of liberals who “just won’t leave them alone.” Jesus, what a bunch of fucking cocksuckers.

We have to begin to gird our loins for the very real possibly that the otherwise peaceful transition into autocracy will somehow be bungled and we do, in fact, have a civil war. The North’s, er, I mean, Blue States‘ war aims should be: destruction of the Republican Party, a just and equable Reconstruction of the former Red States then a Constitutional Convention.

In short, we would need to renew the American Covent that has we last forged in 1865.

But, again, because the method that the MAGA New Right intends to use to initially turn us into an autocracy — the whole throwing things into Congress — is actually in the Constitution, that’s enough hook for the press to shrug and tell everyone to calm down.

The way the MAGA New Right might bungle things is if they are so aggressive and ham-handed in their efforts to win that people see it for what it is, then, well, the country is going to buckle and a civil war will start.

I find myself these days thinking a lot about what the U.S. Military will do should our transition to an autocracy somehow be bungled and it’s clear we’re going to have a civil war. I’m beginning to think rather than a civil war, the U.S. Military would step in — acting President Jim Mattis, anyone? — and that would be the way, ultimately, things would be sorted out.

The U.S. Military is the one remaining institution with the means, motive an opportunity to save us from ourselves.

So, I guess there are three, not two, choices facing us: autocracy, civil war or military junta.