I see these five novels as a trilogy and then two novels that are meant to be the foundation of an open ended series. Because I have the general arc of the five novels mapped out in my mind, I can see on a macro level some of the problems I’m going to face.
One problem is the “Death Star” problem that Star Wars has where they essentially have the same issue to deal with over and over (and over) again. But I think I may have solved this situation to some extent. I like the idea that readers of all five novels will notice how history may not repeat, but it does rhyme.
Anyway, I’ve come up with a very dark plot for the second novel which lends itself to being well within the spectrum of the thriller genre. And I’m really enjoying wrapping up the last act of the first novel while throwing myself into the development of the second novel.
And I’m trying to do more reading, too. But I’m thinking once I wrap up the first novel then I’m going to really re-jiggle my priorities for a month and do a lot — a LOT — more reading.
But we’ll see. It’s always difficult for me to consume media as opposed to produce it.
I write a lot about how I vacillate widely at any particular moment between thinking we’re going to have a civil war and thinking we’re going to simply turn into an autocracy. But usually, I assume this particular crisis will happen around 2024 – 2025.
But there are signs that things have gotten so bad that my fears about the corruption of the administration of elections — Bannon’s “administrative coup” — might happen as part the 2022 mid-terms. Given that Republicans always, ALWAYS get away with politically bloody murder, if Democrats get sucker punched in the 2022 election we’re all probably going to shrug.
And, yet, I suppose there is a small possibility that if Republicans yet again catch the political car and get what they want, which is making it logistically impossible Democrats to win elections in crucial states like Michigan and Florida, there might be some blowback at last.
How that might work out, I don’t know, but if Republicans brazenly steal Congress in 2022 by simply not certifying the election of Democrats…well, who knows.
I don’t think anything is going to happen, no matter what.
If you want any indication of how fucked we are, look no further than how Republicans have officially reached the point where they catch the political car over and over again…and nothing happens. As such, this only emboldens fascist Republicans to keep going.
I think of it as the political slack that exists in the system when it comes to what how far Republicans can go before anyone on the other side does anything about it in the real world. As such, we’re an anocracy and it definitely seems as though we’re going to peacefully slide into a hard autocracy over the course of the next 20 years.
It’s still possible that we’re just going to have a civil war of some sort. But my “hopes” of this happening are fading. Sure, there will be lots of talk on Twitter of states leaving the Union and there being a secession crisis around 2024 – 2025 but, in the end, lulz. No one will do anything in the real world. Or, put another way, the only thing that happens is about a million wealthy liberals will feel the country for places in Europe.
These new expats will do all the same meaningless shit that they did during the twilight of the republic, only in a different country.
So, in the end, I think there won’t be a civil war. Blue States because of a lack of leadership and grit, will bend a knee to the MAGA New Right. It’s not going to happen immediately, but it will happen.
This definitely seems like the Before Times. I don’t know what the future brings — no one does — but as I keep saying, either the United States implodes into autocracy or it explodes into a civil war. Call it the Great Reset or the Fourth Turning or whatever the fuck you like — but it’s coming.
A number of macro trends are all coming to a head in late 2024, early 2025. One way or another, we’re headed for a catastrophe in the United States. Either we simply lulz the end of our democratic republic or we bomb ourselves into the Stone Age in the process of figuring out who gets the USA “brand.”
But let me be clear — I can’t predict the future. Maybe we’ll just punt our problems down the road another presidential cycle. And, in fact, even if MAGA seizes control of the country in 2025 things aren’t going to change overnight. There will be a false sense of relief until, of course, it begins to dawn on us that things are beginning to change.
And, before you know it, one a political basis, the United States and Russia will be one and the same. Which, of course, is what the MAGA New Right screams at the top of their lungs right now that they want. It’s not like they’re hiding it. Republicans have a soft spot for autocrats and they desperately want white Christian minority rule.
So, either we have white Christian minority rule or we have a civil war. At the moment, it just doesn’t seem as though the center-Left has the grit to challenge the rise of autocracy in the United States long term. Twitter liberals are already talking about getting a second passport and fleeing the country rather than doing anything constructive in the real world to stop our slide into autocracy.
And, remember, once we’re an autocracy, that’s it. Republicans will be able to destroy the social safety net, cut taxes for the plutocrats and raise taxes on the poor. They will probably finally seize control permanently with a Constitutional Convention.
Then loud mouth cranks like me, who have had the luxury of living in a Western liberal democracy are just going to be fucked. We’ll die in a camp. Or be sentence to long prison terms. But our lives won’t be the same. And then all the Good Germans in our lives who have been waiting with baited breath for the arrival of white Christian minority rule will finally have reached their red line — ME.
Anyway, either you realize how dire things are at the moment or you don’t. Either you’re realistic and understand we’re careening towards a very dark choice of autocracy or civil war, or you think people like me are “terribly negative” for simply pointing out the truth.
Here are a collection of pop culture items that I feel are representative of the punitive post-Rona “vibe shift” we may be undergoing.
Wet Leg Even though this band is made up of two soft-spoken young ladies from Great Britain, they definitely know how to rock. And they definitely seem seem as though they might be the camel’s nose in the tend when it comes to the possibility of rock coming back in some way.
Phoebe Bridgers Her song “Kyoto” is very representative of the vibe shift we may be going through. Or I’m just old and I really like the type of music she is referencing in her modern music.
Wolf Alice This is another band that seems to indicate that we may be in for more interesting pop culture in the next few years. They remind me a lot of the rock I grew up listening to. They’re really good.
Suki Waterhouse I had no idea that this model can sing. But she can! Go figure. She’s great. I really like her ethereal singing style.
Emma Chamberlain It definitely seems as though young Miss Chamberlain might be the “It Girl” of the vibe shift. Relative to my media consumption, she came out of nowhere. She did a great job interviewing people at the Met Gala and it will be interesting to see what she does going forward.
Nu-Wave This is where legacy artists lean into the ye olde New Wave of my youth. Miley Cyrus and Olivia Rodrigo are two examples of this. They are modern artists who are self-evidently into producing music that sounds like New Wave.
Tik-Tok This is very much a symbol of the Vibe Shift. The fact that this really new service is drawing eyeballs away from places like Instagram and Facebook is definitely an indication that we’re on the cusp of a new era. Multiverse Fiction The fact that the concept of the “multiverse” has, out of nowhere, become the go-to concept for pop culture is definitely an indication that audience tastes may be changing. What that means long term, is anyone’s guess. Political Undertoad This is the general unease of the Vibe Shift associated with the knowledge that between 2022 and 2025 the US could either implode into autocracy or explode into civil war.
Now that I’m in the third act of the first novel in this five novel project, I think I’m going to turn some of my attention to developing the second novel. The reason why this is so enticing is, in a sense, these five novels are just one big story cut into five pieces.
It’s fun to be able to stay in-universe and see different sides of the same characters I’ve already thought up.
But this second book is going to be a struggle — at least at first — because as of the moment, there’s no murder to solve. There’s definitely a “problem” to solve, but no murder. And, yet, the general conceit of the novel is really strong and lends itself to a mystery -thriller type situation. And, yet, I also expect to lean into the characters in such a way that even if there really isn’t that much “thriller” going on, you enjoy hanging out with the characters enough that you don’t mind.
I suppose this will make the second book more difficult to market, but..that’s really being very speculative. I just need to put my head down and develop and write. I can’t get so wrapped up in what might happen that I begin to get discouraged.
I have five really strong novels and I need to start to flesh them out. And I have to admit that things are — at the moment — flowing pretty well with the development of this second novel. But I do really need to contemplate how I can up the ante and action some.
Right now, the story is interesting, yes, but the stakes aren’t nearly as high as maybe they should or could be. I have some ideas as to how to change that and I’ve found that, in the past, the whole BBB (Bed, Bath and Bus) source of inspiration work really well for me.
A lot of it has to do with be aggressively distracted. If you just distract yourself, usually you can come up with some really interesting solutions to your development problems.
Make no mistake, all the hatred that the MAGA New Right has for democracy is all a smoke screen for what they really mean — they are craven and want to establish a white Christian ethnostate based on minority rule. They don’t come out and say this for a number of reasons, specifically they don’t want any association with the term “white minority rule” because it’s racist as hell.
So they beat around the bush and hate on democracy in general. They usually hate on Abraham Lincoln at the same time, which if that isn’t a tell I don’t know what is.
Anyway, we have to accept that the endgame of the the clusterfuck we’re living through at the moment is minority rule. Starting around 2024 – 2025, the United States will be run by a very passionate, organized minority — white Christians.
And that will be that.
Republicans will finally get what they want — the ability to pass all their unpopular policies without having to worry about blowback from the 60% of the population that opposes them.
I honestly don’t see how this dark, dysoptian political hellscape doesn’t happen. The American center-Left is too divided and too busy sucking its own cock in the guise of long, overwrought Twitter threads to do the hard work in the real world that would prevent white Christian minority rule from happening. Or, put another way, we’re past the Event Horizon.
There is, of course, a small chance that rather than imploding into autocracy and minority rule, we’ll explode into a civil war. I still find this very unlikely, however. There probably will be a lot of talk of secession now and again between now and January 2025, but in the end, Blue States will just “bend a knee” to white Christian minority rule.
The question is not how bad it will get, but how long it will take to get as bad as our worst nightmares. I suspect that, initially, nothing will really change. So the first few years of President DeSantis’ administration won’t really feel any different.
But gradually, however, things are very much going to change. The MAGA New Right will grow accustomed to unchecked, unfettered control of the leavers of power and, well, sucks to be you non-MAGA person.
And, in the end, all those people’s who’s only red line was personal, well, they’re going to find out what that means in real terms.
And, yet, there is, like I said, a chance — however small — that things go the other way and we have a civil war. And it’s very unlikely there will be a nice pat ending.
But one thing is for sure, a shit ton of wealthy Blue Check liberals are going to flee the United States in the next few years, no matter what happens. They will only sheepishly come back to the States should there be a civil war and Blue States win.
Otherwise, they’re just going to smell their own farts at cocktail parties while drinking ironic White Russians.
Terribly Negative Person lyrics by @sheltgarner please give credit if you produce or perform
don’t call me bitter I’m not your babysitter people come and go in your life isn’t it a sight you have the gall to say to my dismaay that I’m a terribly negative person terribly negative person terribly negative person
don’t you dare give me a blank stare of a dare
don’t you dare give me a blank stare of a dare
I’m not what you think I swear, I swear I’m not a terribly negative person terribly negative person terribly negative person
I might bet a bit better but you would be too if you had your heart broken by someone like you but you’re cruel in the extreme to scream that I’m a terribly negative person terribly negative person terribly negative person
(bridge) I remember when I had hope and love did not seem on the ropes but you came into my life now I don’t know what is a lie and what is true
don’t you dare give me a blank stare of a dare
don’t you dare give me a blank stare of a dare
I’m not what you think I swear, I swear I’m not a terribly negative person terribly negative person terribly negative person
I might bet a bit better but you would be too if you had your heart broken by someone like you but you’re cruel in the extreme to scream that I’m a terribly negative person terribly negative person terribly negative person
Despite what the feel-good liberals of the “Mueller, She Wrote” Twitter account may think — we’re fucked. Trump and his coterie are above the law. The United States is a failed political state running on fumes of an established political order based on 250 years of Western democracy.
But this is coming to an end.
We’re in America’s twilight. We’re an anocracy, which is a fancy word for being between autocracy and democracy. When a nation is anocracy, it’s at its most vulnerable because it’s either transitioning to democracy or sliding into autocracy. It’s when a nation is an anocracy that the probability of it having a civil war is at its highest.
This is just basic political science so I’m not being a “terribly negative person” to point it out — it’s just what’s going on.
A key thing for us to remember is the American electoral system hides how bad things are because of the two party system. Right now, the United States has a Fascist Republican Party that runs against an array of liberal interest groups that call themselves the Democratic Party. As such, when push comes to shove, the Fascist Republicans are probably going to bowl over anti-fascist groups without breaking a sweat.
So, what does this mean?
It means that you have a few years to figure out what the fuck you believe. As I keep saying, the key to anyone’s success — or failure — in the coming years will be knowing what you believe in, what you believe in to the point that you’re willing to suffer for it.
I say this because things are going to grow existential starting far sooner than you might believe. Once Roe is officially overturned and Republicans take Congress….all bets are off. The United States is going to go through a very bumpy political moment in time that will stretch from 2022 to beyond 2025. Either we sink into the maw of autocracy, or we collapse into a civil war that will pit brother against brother and sister against sister.
And the only way to at least feel good about your fate is to know what you believe in the real world. No more angry Twitter threads. Now is the time to figure out what you’re willing to risk in the real world. What are you willing to risk your life and sacred honor for?
There is no middle ground anymore. Either you’re a Good German or you’re not. Either you’re with the autocrat, or your not. And there will be consequences to your decision one way or another.
And, what’s more, there is the other alternative of a civil war. Then things will really grow existential — your life could depend on making the right choice about what you believe at, say, a highway check on your way to a place in the county that better fits your political views.
I know that sounds “terribly negative” but I refuse to continue to participate in the Twitter liberal circle jerk that assume if we just get mad enough on Twitter and write a long enough, earnest enough Twitter thread that somehow magically the the thing that hasn’t happen — Trump being held accountable — will somehow magically happen.
Sen. Josh Hawley (R-Mo.) gestures toward a crowd of supporters of President Donald Trump gathered outside the U.S. Capitol to protest the certification of President-elect Joe Biden’s electoral college victory Jan. 6, 2021 at the US Capitol in Washington, DC. Some demonstrators later breached security and stormed the Capitol. (Francis Chung/E&E News and Politico via AP Images)
And, what’s more, it’s not even about Trump anymore.
Even if Trump somehow is taken out of the equation, there are a dozen — a dozen! — would be autocrats chomping at the bit to finish what Trump was too stupid and lazy to finish.
Or, put another way, we can not longer to make some of the basic assumptions about political life in the United States. Things are about to change in a big, dramatic fashion — all we don’t know is what exactly it will be. Either it will be autocracy or civil war.
And, for the moment, it could go either way.
So, figure out what you believe in the real world now. You’ll thank me later.
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