What bothers me the most about the concept of the “woke cancel culture mob” “canceling” someone is I honestly don’t really know what being “woke” is and I don’t know what it means, in real terms, to be “canceled.”
I hate the idea that two abstract concepts are at the forefront of the minds of Traditionalists, who are bedrock of any traditional, stable democracy. When you lose Traditionalists, you endup with Good Germans who keep their head down in a fascist autocratic state.
Of course, some of the abstract nature of being “woke” and the power of being “canceled” is by design. The Fox News – Right wing podcast axis goes out of its way to bludgeon Traditionalists with these two concepts in such a way that they live in abject fear of having their lives ruined simply because they’re conservative.
If we all know what “woke” and “canceled” meant, if we could agree on a meaning, then our fears wouldn’t be abstract and, as such, not nearly as scary. But it serves the purposes of the fucking autocratic fascist MAGA Republicans to keep these terms abstract, so, lulz.
Just as MAGA Republicans get frustrated over people like me saying they’re a “threat to democracy” to the point that they don’t believe in democracy anymore, I’m so angry over the rise of fascist MAGA Republican autocracy that I’m really beginning to find the idea — on paper — of a National Divorce rather appealing.
But for the whole bombing ourselves into the Stone Age element of it all – sorting out what constitutes a Blue or Red state alone will be very, very violent — I would be all for it.
Wait, what?
Give me a prosperous, secular Blue Union anyday over an inward looking autocratic fascist MAGA State that was very undemocratic in nature.
I don’t think it will come to that, however. The center-Left just doesn’t have it in them. In the end, wealthy liberals will flee the country — vote with their feet –and get all their My Undies that they hear advertised on Crooked Media podcasts shipped to them in the south of France.
The more I think about it, the more I believe this Union can’t be saved. I hate conflict, hate violence and consider myself a man of peace, a man of ideas. And, yet, I grow more and more alarmed as a center-Left person about the raise of autocratic MAGA Republican fascism in the United States.
So, on paper, there is a very strong case for Blues to serve Reds papers on a National Divorce at some point in late 2024, early 2025 when it becomes clear that either Reds are going to steal that election or they’ve won it fair and square and their incoming agenda is simply too radical for Blues to remain in the Union.
But all of this is on paper. I would far rather at least try to figure out some way to punt the ascendant nature of autocratic MAGA fascism down the road a few more election cycles. Yet, I fear late 2024, early 2025 is going to be it — the Fourth Turning, if you’re into that particular astrology for dudes bullshit.
It just seems — on paper, that if Reds finally catch the car, that maybe Blue States should collectively agree to bounce. If Reds want to establish a white Christian ethnostate so bad, then have at it — but without the tax base associated with Blue States.
We may all be antifa one day.
There are so very many problems with this idea.
I just can’t imagine a scenario where Reds would let Blues leave the Union without a Second American Civil War. What’s more, if the United States buckles, then the post-WW2 liberal order will, too, and WW3 will break out. There are all sorts of nightmare scenarios you could think up at this point, including the DPRK throwing a few H-bombs towards the United States while we were preoccupied with bombing ourselves into the Stone Age.
But something’s gotta give. America is going to reach a point between Election Day 2024 and Certification Day 2025 when it becomes clear that the jig is up. We are either going to be all-Red (autocracy) or split into two nations that hate each other. Or, I supposed, some sort of murky middle ground could occur whereby the U.S. Military steps in and keeps the country together until, maybe, passions subside a little bit.
All of this is still too far out, I can’t game out any scenarios that make much sense at the moment. The first big milestone will be the 2022 elections and when Trump announces for 2024. Those two events will definitely lurch us closer — one way or another — towards the Certification Crisis of 2024 – 2025.
But I’m always wrong. Maybe somehow we’ll sort things out and my dark, dystopian fears of autocracy, civil war or military junta will just be hysterical. And, yet, to be a Republican in good standing at the moment means to be an autocratic fascist, so lulz.
But for how much of an extrovert I am, I would neither write nor talk as much as I do about this first novel I’m working on. I just find it, in real terms, to be counter-productive. You have to have an obsessive personality to write any sort of novel — at least in my opinion — and there have repeatedly come points in this years-long process when I just felt like not telling anyone what I was doing.
Yet, I ‘m 100% extroverted, have no friends and no one likes me, so here I am.
Writing AGAIN about this novel when it would probably be for the best if I didn’t. I just can’t help myself. Sometimes, it’s nice to just let off some steam writing about writing, as it were.
Some of this frustration comes from I have a very clear sense of what works for me and the better writer and storyteller I become, the more all the advice I read from so-called “experts” either isn’t really very applicable to how I do things, or just seems like total fucking bullshit.
One thing that is really at the forefront of my mind is word count. If I use my scene count as a gauge — 1 scene equals about 1,000 words — I’m going to blow past the ~100,000 word count sweetspot. But this is just a first draft and there’s always the hope that at some point either when I write the second draft. Or maybe beta readers in some way pair back the word count while keeping the general story can be thought up.
My earliest political memory was the American hostage crisis in Iran during the late 1970s. That was the first political event that my little, growing mind could comprehend. Flash forward a few decades and I’m old and jaded and the prospect of autocracy in my own fucking country looms large in my mind.
I can’t predict the future.
And, yet, whatever is currently going on in Iran seems different enough to give someone as cynical as me a glimmer of…hope? It definitely SEEMS like we’re in pre-revolutionary Iran, that there might be a sudden shift and Iran will thrown off the yoke of the mullahs and rejoin the modern world.
But — and this is a huge but — it could go either way. It could be that there’s not a revolution, but a civil war. Or just a severe crackdown that leaves thousands dead. It’s very unusual for history to go in a straight line when there is a crisis like what’s going on in Iran at the moment.
So, I dunno. It’s very frustrating because there’s not really anything the United States can do to help the situation. In fact, if we do anything, we’re likely to make matters worse for the Iranians who want to breathe the fresh air of liberty, freedom and democracy.
I will note that if there was a successful democratic revolution in Iran, that would throw the status quo of the Middle East into a wood chipper. Suddenly, it might be possible for Iran and Israel to not be at each other’s throats anymore. While it definitely wouldn’t mean Middle East peace, it would definitely change things — the conventional wisdom of nearly 50 years of Middle East geopolitics would be thrown up in the air.
But I’m not prepared to have too much hope about a successful revolution in Iran. My thoughts are with the young women at the forefront of this nascent revolutionary movement, however. Those girls have guts.
I really like Bill Murray — as do a lot of other Americans — and the idea that we would “cancel” a national treasure like Murray is something I struggle with. The reason is, we all have a dark side, we have all “fallen short of the glory that is Christ,” as The Bible teaches us.
And yet.
We are in a new age where seemingly no one is safe from the wrath of the “woke cancel culture mob.” And there have been some pretty disturbing alligations lodged against Murray over the years, from his ex-wife accusing him of abuse to whatever it was that caused him to fight with Lucy Liu on the set of Charlie’s Angels.
I suppose what bothers me, though, is it’s all kind of murky. So he problematic, it’s not like he married his step daughter, you know? I think the question at the moment is if the current trouble he finds himself in is a mortal blow to his career, or if it will just blow over and be forgotten.
Some of all of this is we don’t even really know what being “canceled” means in the first place. All your typical conservative knows is they fear they risk, an abstract way, their entire life being ruined simply for being conservative. Even though, really, the whole thing is generated by the hot air of Fox News and Right wing podcasts than anything else.
I mean, if you can’t tell me what you’re afraid of, aren’t you really telling me that you just don’t like, in general, the mentality of center-Left people who you don’t understand don’t really want to? You want things to go back to the way they used to be when you were young, only with wifi and Netflix.
But the key thing to remember is many, many of the people who are allegedly “canceled” either haven’t been canceled in real terms — Dave Chappelle, Louis CK — or what they did was REALLY BAD and they deserved it (name any number of cretens who were exposed because of the #MeToo movement.)
My gut tells me that Murray is down but not out. He’s always been a unique fixture in American pop culture and I just can’t see him being totally excised from American life because of what’s going on. At least, I hope not?
All the Traditionalist conservatives in my family want autocracy. They don’t come out and say this, probably because they don’t really think in those terms, but that’s what they want. They want a white Christian ethnostate so they can relax, knowing at last, that they don’t risk being “canceled” by the “woke cancel culture mob.” If they can stop libtards from “grooming” children and demanding everyone be gay, all the better.
The interesting thing about all of this is they stress that they “just want to be left” alone while also saying how much they support the marketplace. There is the marketplace of ideas, you know, and that’s where things get interesting in regards to all this abstract fear about the “woke cancel culture mob” ruining their lives simply because they’re conservative.
A lot is being conflated about “wokeness” because it serves the purposes of Fox News and all those myriad of Right wing podcasts that breathlessly give their listens the latest talking points to “own” libs like me. What is “wokeness” but the marketplace of ideas working quite effectively to decide what is, and isn’t acceptable behavior?
But that’s now how my Traditionalist relatives see things. They conflate the growing hard power of MAGA Republicans with the nebulous soft power of the “woke cancel culture mob.” They are so overcome with the abstract fear that they will be “persecuted” simply because their views don’t follow the conventional wisdom media narrative that they are gleefully willing to give up that most basic of American rights — democracy. They don’t like how things are changing and they want to go back to when there was no doubt that white Christians were on top.
They don’t know exactly what the problem is, but they do know that they are enraged by the “crisis at The Border,” how powerful the “gay agenda” is and how it seems no one plays by the rules anymore and everyone expects a handout, to boot.
All of this is very, very murky because there are a lot of moving parts to all of this. Not only have there been a lot of people who have been justifiably “canceled” for doing some pretty shitty things — especially to women — but there have been other, Hollywood types, who have been “canceled” simply because they have been outspoken conservatives.
I think the thing that really bothers one of my Traditionalist conservative relatives is the corporate “sensitivity training” that they apparently have to undergo on occasion. They blame Biden for how much they hate this, even though, lulz, sensitivity training is the free market doing it’s thing. A private company decided that it was in its best fiscal interests to make sure its employees were aware of the changing sensitivities of the modern age.
If we are honest with each other as a nation, I think we would all come to the painful conclusion that we need a National Divorce. I don’t want one, and definitely don’t want a civil war that would result, but I also know I don’t want to live in a fascist MAGA Republican autocracy. As such, should the time come that Blues face a choice of autocracy or National Divorce, I don’t think the latter should be entirely off the table. It’s definitely something to think about seriously in late 2024, early 2025 when it becomes clear that Republicans are going to strangle what’s left of American democracy with a gleeful, deranged look in their collective eyes.
I do not think it will come to that, however. I don’t think there will ever be a moment — even if it’s absolutely clear that MAGA is going to turn us into a Russian-style autocracy — when Blues will be willing to put on their big boy pants and honestly think about secession. We just don’t have it in us. We don’t have any leadership and what the moment it’s clear as to what’s going to happen in the United States in 2025, the liberal intelligentsia is going to be the first out the door for Canada and beyond.
It happened when the Nazis took over Germany and it’s going to happen with the United States.
The only reason why it’s not a foregone conclusion is it hasn’t happened yet. There are too many variables that I can’t game out. A lot of unexpected things could happen that may change the context — or even punt the problem down the road a little bit. We were very, very lucky in 2020 because of a combination of the political consequences of the pandemic and Trump being a lazy moron who was too stupid to pull basic autocrat plays.
A prime example of what I’m talking about.
So, I suppose, it’s possible we might be lucky again.
But I doubt it. I can’t predict the future — no one can — but my mind keeps coming back to how all the macro metrics point to something pretty dramatic happening in the United States in late 2024, early 2025. What that might be — autocracy, civil war or military junta — I just don’t know at the moment.
Regardless, the point is — a lot of what is considered “wokeness” is simply a concrete manifestation of how Blue states and Red states interpret the American experience so differently as to be two different nations, at least in their minds.
The great irony is, of course, that the process of having a National Divorce — civil war — would be so horrific that it would burn off “wokeness” by the time it was all over. People on both the Right and the Left would probably appreciate what’s really important in life and neither side would have to fear being “canceled.”
A few million people might have done in order for us to gain that “freedom,” but lulz.
Now, before I end this rant, let me be absolutely clear — I’m probably a prime candidate to be “canceled” if my dream of selling my first novel becomes a reality and it’s as big a success as I hope. I’m a very flawed person who has done things that probably wouldn’t pass muster with the “woke cancel culture mob.” Despite that, I sure would rather live in a free Blue Union and the white Christian ethnostate of Trumplandia.
Occasionally, I’ll be reminded of the wistful idea about relationships — that when you have sex with someone for the last time, you don’t know what you’re doing. That that will be the last time you have sex with them.
MAGA Republicans are politically ascendant. Now what.
I think about this because we may look back on the 2020 election as America’s last free and fair election. I suppose it’s possible that the 2022 midterms may be the REAL last free and fair election, but we haven’t had it yet, so I just don’t know for sure.
I say this because it’s self-evident that fascism in popular in the United States and that MAGA Republicanism is ascendant. And it definitely seems — at the moment — that Republicans are going to at least take the House, if not the Senate, too in a few weeks.
Congressional Republicans are so fucking fascist, so fucking radical, that them taking control of any house of Congress will, in effect, be a severe, reactionary revolution. They have a singular focus — to destroy the Biden Administration and, if necessary, to crash the global economy if they can’t gut the social safety net under his watch.
Republicans are notorious for causing a problem then blaming Democrats for it, who then have to turn around and solve the very problem that Republicans caused in the first place.
There are many, many metrics to point to that indicate 2024 is going to be put up or shut up time for Blue States. Everything from a general corruption of the administration of elections to the “independent legislature ” concept could very well force Blues to make the existential choice of “bending a knee” to fascist MAGA autocracy or, well, leaving the Union.
At the moment, I just don’t think Blues have it in them to demand a National Divorce. Wealthy liberals will just flee the country — vote with their feet — and all my favorite podcasts will be recorded in the south of France. But there does remain a greater-than-zero chance that there could very well be a Second American Civil War. It’s just too far out still to game out.
It could go either way. And, of course, there is the military junta option.
But I think any sort of military junta would be a frantic last gasp before the country collapsed. Or, I suppose it’s possible that the U.S. Military might become completely unmoored from both Red and Blue. That would be interesting.
I love a good scenario, so if you want my hot take on how the Secessionist Crisis of 2024 – 2025 would go down, it would be something like this. The first indication that things were going to be different would be that local MAGA controlled election boards in swing states would simply not do their job. They would balk at certifying the election of the 2024 Democratic presidential candidate.
The reason why this is so important to what happens next is would introduce a level of uncertainty into the process that could easily be exploited by because so much of the Federal bench is now made up of young MAGA hacks who will do the bidding of MAGA when the time comes. I’m well aware that this did NOT happen in 2020….but we were very lucky. It’s very possible that the process of the corruption of the administration of elections will be much farther along by 2024 and, I don’t know, the election might be closer.
Each election has a personality of its own, if you will.
Once MAGA controlled election boards simply refuse to do their jobs because they don’t like the result, then one of the great ironies of the modern age will happen — suddenly, it will be Blues who will be screaming at the top of their lungs about “Stop The Steal.”
Let me pause here to note that America is tearing itself apart in ways big and small to the point that I just don’t see us making through the passions of another presidential cycle without Something Bad happening. That Somethng Bad could be, as I mentioned, autocracy, civil war or military junta.
But back to the scenario.
Once election boards in swing states balk at doing their jobs, the clock will begin to tick as to what the fuck is going to happen. And if SCOTUS validates the “independent legislature” concept this would be the point where everything would go off the rails. MAGA controlled legislatures in swing states could simply take control of the administration of elections that that point and pretty much just do whatever the fuck they wanted.
This is the point when we would reach a crisis. Just a few days after Election Day 2024, there would begin to be talk amongst a lot of Twitter liberals about either simply voting with their feet and leaving the country for good or even giving up on trying to “Stop The Steal” and having states call up Secessionist Conventions to give at least a thin cover of legality to trying to leave the Union.
Now, remember, all of this would be happening in the context of an old as hell POTUS who could very well just drop dead in the middle of this crisis, making an already very bad situation even worse.
The key element as to any Secessionist Crisis would be, of course, California and maybe New York City. If there was such popular outrage in Blue states that the 2024 election was going to be stolen in broad daylight that election officials in the deep blue states simply could not ignore the demand to leave the Union, then well, we’re going to show.
Meanwhile, NYC would be important because that’s where Trump Tower, Fox News, the Wall Street Journal and the New York Post are physically located. If hordes of enraged New Yorkers sacked those places in the middle of any Certification Crisis, then, well, that would be very bad as to the continued unity of the country.
If we turned on CNN in late 2024 and saw Trump Tower in New York City in flames, then, well, that would probably prompt retaliation on the part of Reds across the country. Which would would cause a cascading series of events that would definitely turn a Certification Crisis in to a Secessionist Crisis.
And all of this would be happening in the context of Trump freaking the fuck out and demanding blood. He might go so totally nuts that he, unto himself, could push the country into not just “chaos” but an actual civil war with two governments fighting it out.
There is just so much about this scenario that I can’t game out. I’m not an expert and I can’t predict the future. So, take that into consideration.
At this point, all eyes would be on California. Either they maybe call up a Secessionist Convention just to placate enraged liberals in the state or they maybe call some sort of emergency summit of Blue governors to discuss what happens next.
Then we bump up against two crucial questions. What about “purple” states and what happens with the U.S Military?
There are a number of states, like Virginia, which are purple. Virginia, specifically, is actually two states who fucking hate each other fused together because of history and geography. So this is when something that would make a lot of people sit up and take notice would happen — not only would there potentially be coups and counter coups in state houses across the country, many, many Reds would leave Blue states and Blues would leave Red states.
All this happening virtually overnight would put ever-more pressure on the Federal government. It would begin to dawn on people that the United States, the richest most stable country in the world was about to collapse into not just “rolling political violence” like The Troubles in Northern Ireland but an honest to God civil war like the one that happened in 1861 – 1865.
This brings us to the other issue — what the fuck would the U.S. Military do?
Well, I simply can’t game this out. There is a spectrum of things the U.S. Military might end up doing. Everything from simply collapsing as the Red enlisted go one way while the Blue officer corp goes another way to some sort of martial law / military junta happening. (If you really wanted to be paranoid, the fact that bonkers Gen. Mike Flynn’s brother is in control of the U.S. Pacific Command might suddenly become VERY IMPORTANT at this point.)
I really can’t game out what happens now. Either Blue States leave the Union en mass, establish their own Federal government and military or the U.S. Military steps in and we have a military junta for a little while until passions die down.
Or Blue States could choke and we slide into autocracy, with millions of wealth Blues leaving the country for good.
So, here goes. Here’s how the individual states would handle A Second American Civil War, probably starting in late 2024 when it becomes clear that Reds are going to brazenly steal the election. I don’t think this is going to happen — I think we’re just going to slip peacefully into autocracy — but it is at least possible. I’m NOT going to do every state because, lulz, I don’t know the internal politics of each state well enough to do it right.
California If Blues really decide to have a National Divorce, it will be California that probably is at the forefront serving the papers. And the key issue is — war aims. I think at first the war aims of the Blues will be to simply start, say, the United States of Canada. It will only be much later in any conflict that Blues get sucked into fighting the longer-term goal of maybe establishing the United States of North America. And that would happen because Trumplandia could possible begin a Final Solution for POC within its territory and, as such, the second phase of the civil war would be one of liberation. But that’s extremely speculative on my part.
Everything will hinge on what California wants to do. If it simply wants independence for itself, that’s a lot different war than if it joins with other Blue States to establish a new, larger state. But whatever happens once the 2ACW starts, California will be the “Arsenal of Democracy.” If they want to establish a Blue Union, then California would put itself on a war footing. It would call up a few million young men and women into a new Blue Army and away we go. A lot would depend on the state of the US Military, but the case could be made that it might implode, leaving the individual states with the ability to fend for themselves.
California would quickly secure Oregon and Washington then swoop through the plains states to link up with major Blue States in the old Upper Midwest. They would crash into Texas in the south and that would be a Battle Royale, though it’s possible because Texas is shifting blue that Texas might simply implode into an intra-state civil war and Blues could secure the state a lot easier than one might otherwise expect.
But the point is — as goes California, so goes the Blue Union cause.
Texas Texas is a state that is really difficult to game out because while MAGA has turned into a Red stronghold, on the ground, the state is shifting Blue long term. As such, when our national politics finally collapses and we’re dealing with the existential it’s possible that Texas will simply implode. There could be a massive intra-state civil war that leaves it open to Blue Union forces from the West to swoop in and take it over. Or, at least, a lot of it over. But between when the civil war starts and when Blue Union troops come to the rescue, we could all be talking about the Siege of Austin as MAGA surrounds that particular blue dot in a purple state and want to wipe it off the face of the earth.
In a sense, Texas probably has the most to loose from a 2ACW. Texas would probably be the site of a huge amount of fighting as the difference between the Blue shift in the state’s practical politics slams up against the autocratic state government. Or, put another way, Texas is a lot less stable than you might think. It will likely be the source of a huge amount of domestic political refugees who will either endup in camps, or simply flee the state altogether, only to return when (hopefully) Blues win the civil war and there’s a Second Reconstruction.
Oregon The thing about this state is it’s ripe for a huge clusterfuck. Of all the places in the Union in the lead up to any potential 2ACW, Oregon is the state I could most likely see some sort of “Troubles” taking place. There could be a pretty bloody Battle of Portland as all the crazed Far Right Militia’s swoop down on the city and decide to end the “Antifa Problem” once and for all. Then, of course, there’s pretty good chance that all of that will be for naught when California troops come from the south and consolidate Blue control over the state. Not that it won’t come at a very, very blood cost. But California is just too powerful not to be able to seize both Oregon and Washington in the early stages of any 2ACW. Even if California simply wants to go it alone, the mass chaos of Oregon might pull them into the state for some sort of peacekeeping mission.
The Plains States Outside of Texas, the Plaines states may see their fates during a 2ACW largly out of their hands. They could shift from Blue to Red and back again as the two sides fight it out. They have small populations and economies and if California wants to link up with Blue States in the old Upper Midwest, then, they may see their extremely Red politics change in a rather abrupt, violent manner. These states are an example of why it would be so dumb for Red States to want a civil war — the values of small plains states are being forced upon Blue States and Blues aren’t really doing anything about it. But if there was a civil war, the Red Plains States would be forced to change their ways rather quickly.
The Old CSA (At least some of it.) At first, a number of states of the old CSA would explode into joy if there was a 2ACW. States like Mississippi, Alabama and South Carolina would have you believe they are already half way out of the Union as it is because of the evil libtard “groomers” and, as such, if Blue States left the Union the populations of the old CSA states would be very, very happy. But. And this is a big but, as the war progressed and everything went to shit there would be a natural inclination on the part of white Christians in these states to make POC scape goats. There would be a rapid radicalization of the politics of these states to the point that something akin to a race war might break out. Or, if not that, then at least Nazi-style concentration camps would be established with the aim of enacting a Final Solution once and for all. This would, in turn freak the Blue States out to the point that even if they were free of the United States, they might rejoin the battle simply to stop the Final Solution from happening. This is all extremely speculative, of course, but I’m simply gaming out what already exists and then assume the worse.
Florida I used to think that Florida would break up into about three states, given how diverse it is, but no more. I think it would be a fully autocratic state under DeSantis — even if he was POTUS at this point — and a lot of young men from Florida would face up against young men (and women) from California as the war progressed and got worse and worse for everyone concerned. The already fucked up politics of Florida would grow significantly more radical to the point that it was a one party fascist state.
Georgia The thing about Georgia is Atlanta. If there was a 2ACW, then it’s possible that within the state it would be Atlanta versus everyone else. Atlanta would be a very Blue stronghold and the rest of the state would be so Red that it could all get very bloody. Of course, Blue forces from outside the state could swoop in at some point and help take stabilize the situation.
Virginia As I’ve said the last time I wrote this scenario up, Virginia is two states that hate each other. Of all the states of the Union that might find destruction as part of a 2ACW, Virginia is at the top of the list — even more so than Texas. The state would collapse into coups and counter coups. The rural Red parts of the state would go all Pol Pot on the Blue parts of the state and there would be a lot of political scores settled by extremely radicalized rural Reds who wanted to make sure drag queens of the woke cancel culture mob could never teach their kids critical race theory again. I wish I was joking or exaggerating, but I’m not.
Heartland The so-called “American Heartland” is where the worst fighting of any 2ACW would take place. States like Ohio and Indiana would be diehard supporters of Trumplandia and they just would not go down without a fight. It would be the type of fighting not seen since the end of WW2. And it would be happening in what was once the most stable country in the world. As I’ve mentioned, a lot would depend on what Blue war aims were. If they just wanted to start the USoC, then my dark fears probably won’t happen. But if, for some reason, those war aims change and the issue becomes bringing the US back together again (probably with Canada by this point) then, well, all bets are off. It would be a very bloody pitched battle.
New York City
A 2ACW might be a tale of two cities for NYC. On one hand, there’s a chance NYC could become something akin to a Free City and on the other it could get nuked by Trumplandia. Any 2ACW would probably see the city flooded with refugees, maybe even including yours truly. But one thing is for sure — the long term tension between Upstate New York and NYC will grow in the event of a 2ACW to the point that NYC may break away politically in some way. Update New York has a lot of room for political refugees and, as such, you could see the population of some of the Update New York cities might balloon as a result.
New England I think in the even of a 2ACW that New England would be flooded with political refugees to an unprecedented extent. People fleeing all parts of Trumplandia would go to New England, potentially in hopes of getting across the border to Canada. Should the Blue Union unite with Canada, then, of course, that dynamic would change.
In closing, I would note three things. There’s not going to be a 2ACW if Blues don’t have any leadership. They currently have no effective leadership, so a lot of abrupt heroes would have to bubble up to the surface once it became clear that Blues had to leave the Union. Also, all of what I’ve described above has to be taken into the context of very real possibility that WMD would be used by both sides as the war progressed. And, remember, if the United States is too busy bombing itself into oblivion, then the prospect of a “Great Reset” in the guise of WW3 is a very, very real possibility.
Just in the last few days, Twitter has been pushing me vast sums of Right wing propaganda from people I don’t follow. This is how it happens: people I follow are monitoring the Right Wing Bullshit Echo Chamber and the Twitter turns around and pushes me the tweets from those accounts that I don’t follow.
It’s gotten really aggravating to the point that it seems like the exact opposite of the “shadow banning” that MAGA Republicans invoke whenever some spicy racist, autocratic tweet they write doesn’t get the adoring engagement they somehow expect.
This is happening with such frequency, that it makes me wonder if this is the shape of the future once Elon Musk owns Twitter. Is that what we are going to have to put up with from now on — a constant barrage of Right wing talking points, even if you don’t follow the person who is articulating them?
If that is the case, then this yet another indication that we’re totally, completely fucked going into the 2024 presidential election cycle. MAGA Republicans are focused, passionate and ascendant. And, as I keep saying, the real question is going to be not if MAGA Republicans start a civil war, but if Blue States refuse to bend a knee to autocratic fascist MAGA in late 2024, early 2025. When it is clear that either MAGA Republicans are going to steal the 2024 election or they win it outright and their incoming agenda is so reactionary, so radical that Blue States will face the question of leaving the Union.
All I can say is if Twitter is going to be turned into a Gab, Parler or Truth Social clone….that might have real implications for Twitter going forward. Eventually, Blues might get so fed up with having fucking read Right Wing bullshit against their will that they may “secede” from Twitter and gravitate towards some new more netural Twitter clone that does what Twitter did before it was eaten by fascists.
I’ve finally gotten the ebb and flow of the first half of the first draft of my first novel just about where I want it to be. The novel’s structure breathes like a real novel and there’s the proper cause and effect involved, which is good. But there is one huge looming problem — it may existentially have too many words.
Who knows?
I say “existentially” because relative to my writing ability, I have have come up with a really great story but for the number of scenes I feel is necessary to tell that story. In the past when I had this problem, I just split the novel in two — hence how I have six novels in total I want to write as part of this project.
But this version of the first novel is a coherent whole that flows well from first to second half and there’s just no need to cut the novel in half AGAIN. In fact, it just wouldn’t make any sense. So, I find myself in something of a conundrum. My best hope is that either I figure out how to shave off words as I transition the first draft into a second draft or my beta readers — should I somehow find some — will suggest some structural edits that will allow me to cut down the word count.
I really need this first novel to fall around the 100,000 word sweet spot if I have any hope of getting a literary agent. And, yet, I suppose I can rationalize the word count by saying if the story is strong enough maybe, just maybe, that, unto itself, will sell the novel despite the length.
That, of course, is an extremely delusional take on my part, but at this point, I’m still in the delusional phase of writing this novel and that kind of delusion is all I have.
But, in general, I’m very pleased with the state of the novel. I just have to keep plugging along, keep believing. I definitely think I’m not going to embarrass myself and maybe might event impress the haters who think I suck and am a drunk crank that they simply can not, will not, take seriously.
Let me be clear –I’m just a broke ass writer in the middle of nowhere and David Sacks rubs elbows with wealthiest people in the world. But I do have a hot take on his recent ranting about how the United States should essentially demand Ukraine give up because of the risk of WW3 or, as he puts it “Woke War III.”
There is a lot to unpack here.
As I keep saying, it’s very alarming that Silicon Valley Tech Bros seem determined to be Russian Fifth Columnists and Fellow Travelers. They give as their excuse the risk of WW3, but really they obviously have run the numbers and think it would be better if we just washed our hands of Ukraine and moved on to turning the United States into a MAGA-themed fascist autocracy.
I’ve said before that I understand the sentiment. But I have to say again that just because you’re the Smartest Guy In The Room, doesn’t mean you know jack shit about the best interests of the United States on a geopolitical basis. And, remember, we still don’t know if Putin is a rational actor or not. If we give into appeasing Putin, there’s every reason to believe he will see it as weakness and attack NATO directly.
Remember, the same argument that Sacks makes about not defending Ukraine could be made for not defending the smaller NATO states in the Baltic. If his primary concern is the risk of nuclear war, then, really, why is the United States a part of NATO to begin with? Why not bring the boys home, turn us into Fortress America and elect fucking Trump God King For Life.
The point of American foreign policy for the last 75 odd years has been to keep the global order together through might and preemptive engagement. And, what’s more, there comes a point when you have to think about the moral implications of what you’re doing — even if it means increasing the risk of nuclear war.
The current war in Ukraine is one of Russian aggression and the United States has a moral imperative to support a fellow democracy. The last thing we should be doing is just giving up and let a tyrant walk all over Ukraine because the Baltics or Poland or whomever could be next if we do.
The lesson of 1930s appeasement is it doesn’t work. The more you give a tyrant, the more they expect later down the road. So, it’s best to take a stand as soon as possible and try to manage the risks involved.
And let’s address Sparks’ complaint that he’s being “smeared.” What horseshit. He’s the one who interjected himself into a very divisive debate and he has to have known that what he proposes is extremely unpopular — especially on Twitter where he whines about being “smeared” all the time.
If you can’t stand the heat, get out of the kitchen, as they say.
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