Month: December 2022

The Coming Battle Over Chatbot ‘Bias’

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

As chatbots like OpenAI’s ChatbotGPT grow more and more mainstream, there will be a growing tendency by the average person to assume whatever answer it generates is “objective truth.” People are going to treat it like praying to a god who just happens to give them a direct answer.

The problem is going to be that by definition, any statement of fact that doesn’t align with this or that person’s personal views will be seen as “bias.” So, on one side, MAGA Nazi cocksuckers will grow enraged if the answers the get are what the perceive to be “woke,” while center-Left people will be equally enraged if their chatbot shoots up answers that they perceive to be racist or misogynistic.

Under normal circumstances, when our politics functioned, there would be debate back and forth as to how to deal with this. Maybe, if it became that big a problem, the government might pass legislation regulating this particular element of chatbot technology.

But, lulz, that’s just not going to happen. All the techniques that MAGA Nazis have used in the past to make polite debate impossible, they will use to force the issue of “what is objective truth for a chatbot?” Either they win and we all get MAGA-approved “objective truth” or they win when a new chatbot designed specifically for them is designed and, lulz, yet another element of society is siloed into Red and Blue.

I still think there is a chance that a war will be fought over chatbot and AGI bias. And it could be a world war. The moment we have a setup where there is a battle between us (Humans) and THEM (AGI) anything is possible. Some pretty strange things could happen because once the nation-state isn’t as important as your views on our new AGI overlord, the civilization itself may be at risk of collapse.

I am well aware of how hysterical that sounds. But we have to start taking these things seriously. If there was some way for us to figure out the gray areas of “objective truth” in the context of politics, then there might be a chance that we might see us peacefully and gracefully transition into a post-chatbot, post-AGI world.

But Americans can barely agree on what color the sky is. So, we’re fucked. As I’ve said before, I’m concerned that given there might be a recession in 2023, that by 2024 we will face a perfect storm — a Singularity, a lingering recession and a massive political crisis surrounding the 2024 election.

What Happens When Tech Bros Are Poor?

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

The argument can legitimately be made that there may come a point, in the not-too-distant future when software development will be reduced to simply asking a chatbot a well-crafted question.

Now, I say this because it definitely seems as though the cat is out of the bag when it comes to the potential of chatbots. Now that The Powers That Be are aware of what chatbots can do, the natural inclination of capitalism is to replace most programmers with a chatbot.

This won’t happen overnight — if ever — but it is a risk. It’s easy to imagine the software design industry being among the first industries to become moot because of chatbots.

What would be the consequence of this?

It’s possible that if a lot of young, wealthy men will suddenly lose their jobs. That, in turn, could cause something akin to a neo-Luddism. If nothing else, we’re in for a very bumpty few years as we figure out what we’re going to do as more and more human tasks are taken over by non-human actors.

When it becomes clear that chatbots could be just as big a cultural and economic revolution as the Internet, all bets are off as to what happens next. Buckle up.

The End Of Writing?

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

With the advent of advanced chatbot technology, we have to begin to contemplate the idea that humanity’s relationship to writing may be about to change dramatically. From what I can tell about the ability of chatbot technology to generate writing of all sorts it definitely seems as though some basic ideas about human creativity may be about to be upended.

The case could be made for a dystopian near-future whee writing itself is seen as quaint and antiquated, much like cursive writing is today. We may face a future where being trained to write is something that a narrow subset of the population is trained to do.

Meanwhile, the vast majority of all writing — be it creative or otherwise — will be done by at least chatbots, if not an actual AGI. In a way, if we don’t invent AGI sooner rather than later, that’s kind of the worse case scenario.

At least with AGI, there is the opportunity for us to tax its activities to fund a UBI program — or, even better AGIs might be willing to fund a UBI of its own volition as a “bribe” to humanity to keep it busy playing video games. I’m not saying the transition to a UBI wouldn’t be rather…turbulent…to say the least.

But it could very well happen.

I suppose my biggest fear is that, given human nature, all of this could happen a lot sooner than we all expect because there’s probably going to be a global recession in 2023. As such, that would be the time when the ability to replace high paid writers of all sorts might simply be too enticing for the Powers That Be.

But I think I’m getting a little too ahead of myself. History rarely goes in a straight line. There’s every reason to believe my fears that we’re going to face a Singularity in late 2024, early 2025 at just the same time that the whole world is collapsing because MAGA Nazis are in the middle of trying to steal the 2024 election might be a little bit too hysterical.

And, yet, the fact remains — there’s a real risk that the next generation may see learning to write as optional. Or, if they do learn to write, it will be more about how to write a chatbot prompt than it is writing an essay or a novel or whatever. As is the case with all of my hysterical, dystopian rantings about the rise of chatbots and AGI, the point is to get us all thinking about different scenarios instead of waiting until we have a serious case of future shock.

The Great Debate

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

I attempted to have a lengthy discussion with someone on Twitter about the future of chatbots and AGI, but he ghosted me after a little bit of back and forth. But let’s address some of the issues he brought up.



“Have You Met Capitalism?”
Ok, his argument is that by definition, capitalism would dictate that something as powerful as chatbot technology, because its expensive, will be used by the Elites to keep Poors in line. He apparently thinks that a secret cabal of corporations is currently subtly influencing the world and, as such, they will just keep doing that under the guise of chatbots.

I call bullshit.

While it’s very possible that something along those lines might happen, my personal experience with the Internet suggests that guy is full of shit. If anything, the capitalistic imperative is to let chatbot technology run amuck because it will save money by eliminating high paying jobs.

The Internet / Web gradually, within the course of about a decade, totally upended a lot of the global economy to an astonishing extent. Instead of the Elites hoarding access to the Internet for themselves, there was a cultural imperative to make sure everyone possible could use it.

And remember, because of Moore’s law, the cost of processing power is constantly going down, so any arguments about how chatbot technology is always going to be too expensive on the backend makes no sense.

So, rather than being alarmed at the idea that we have to “meet capitalism” and fear the Elites restricting access to chatbots, we probably need fear the exact opposite. Chatbots could very well be everywhere instead of something semi-secret that a secret cabal of corporations use, Second Foundation style, to subtly dictate the course of human events.

I’m not saying that our secret corporate overlords won’t manage to survive, but I also wouldn’t automatically assume that they will feel that it’s in their interests to keep chatbot technology totally under their control.

There Will Be No Singularity
This argument is more difficult to directly rebut. I’m not saying that it’s a sure thing that AGI will take place. It’s very possible it won’t. But to be so sure that AGI won’t happen and, as such, the associate Singularity won’t happen, is a bit of a stretch.

As such, we need to start to think now about what we’re going to do when there are potentially a LOT of AGIs floating around, not just one. How are we going to have a functioning global economy if androids connected to AGIs have taken over every single human task?

The Conundrum Of Plenty

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

The thing about AGI technology is as we go into it, we are making some basic assumptions that may be inaccurate. I remember the early days of the Web when the Elites assumed that they would be able to use their exclusive access to the Internet to keep the Poors under their control.

Soon enough, of course, it became clear that this would not be the case. It took a while, but gradually because of things like mobile Internet and broadband Internet access, the lives of millions of people were fundamentally changed because of ready, speedy Web access. This happened to the point that by 2016, a malignant dingus like Trump was able to use the Internet itself to troll his way to the presidency.

And now we have find ourselves potentially at the cusp of a new, even greater cultural revolution in the guise of AGI. At the moment, of course, it’s not AGI but rather chatbot technology that we’re dealing with. AGI just isn’t there yet.

That doesn’t stop me from imagining a situation where we don’t just have on AGI that we have to deal with, but a whole species of them. Of course, I suppose it’s possible that the Elites might keep access to an AGI to themselves, but historical determinism when it comes to technology suggests that’s just not practical.

The ominous scenario is all these fucking androids that everyone is so busy building will each have an AGI built in. They will have something akin to free will. I think we all need to start reading scifi novels — especially the Robots novels by Isaac Asimov — get some sense of what might be about to happen to our global culture.

The idea that there may come a point not when Poors are controlled by limited access to AGI, but that AGI would be a practical part of everyday life is very unnerving. If AGI really takes off in a big way, then there is a chance that we will face something collectively as humans that we haven’t had to deal with since the Neandertals — The Other.

And, what’s more, it will all happen so rapidly that we may essentially wake up one day to something akin to a digital First Contact. It won’t be aliens from another planet that are changing our lives, but aliens of our own creation.

‘Stab In The Back’

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

Rather than confront the fact that their hate-filled movement is unpopular, MAGA Nazis have decided but for the “stab in the back” done by a combination of Twitter and the Deep State, Trump would have won in 2020. This is so fucking dumb.

And, yet, MAGA can’t accept that they’re the bad guys and they’re already really fucking paranoid so even the suggestion that they were slighted in 2020 is enough to make them go completely insane. The “stab in the back” orthodoxy within the MAGA Nazi movement has developed at astonishing speed to the point that it now completely explains to MAGA everything that has gone wrong for them since 2020.

One darkly humorous element to all of this is MAGA now has a talking point to pivot to whenever someone like me has the temerity to remind them of the conspiracy between the 2016 Trump campaign and the Russians. MAGA Nazis from now on will scream at the top of the lungs “stab in the back” whenever the subject is brought up.

All of this is very alarming for a number of reasons. One of them is it’s yet another example of how the United States is careening towards a very dark future. The two sides now completely inhabit their own political and cultural silos to the point that if, say, a Certification Crisis strikes in late 2024 – early 2024 there won’t be any slack in the system.

The United States, the wealthiest, most powerful democracy in Human history is primed and ready to collapse into chaos as the two sides fight over who the president is. Add into this mix how old Biden is, how untested Harris is and how there’s a real possibility of a severe recession between now and 2025 in the context of a Singularity….and, oh boy.

I definitely believe that we are being lulled into a false sense of security about MAGA Nazis because of how the economy is doing ok — at the moment. The moment the recession kicks in at some point in 2023, all bets are off. A lot of people might join the MAGA Nazi ranks out of economic desperation and suddenly malignant ding-dong will have a huge amount of momentum going in to 2024.

If that does turn out to be the case, may God have mercy on our souls.

Slouching Towards MAGA Nazi Tyranny

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

I love my Traditionalist relatives dearly and they have a great deal for me, but I’m enraged by how totally dumb the current narrative within the MAGA Nazis echo chamber is.

Elon Musk has given something MAGA Nazis a huge gift — they now have something to whine about whenever anyone reminds them of how Trump actively worked with the Russians to steal the 2016 election. It is now MAGA Nazi orthodoxy that but for the “stab in the back” on the part of Twitter, Trump would have won re-election in 2020.

The amount of gross stupidity combined with conflation of what really happened this entails is so broad and deep in scope that it really grinds my gears. But, here we are.

Rather than accepting that maybe their hate filled message isn’t a winning policy agenda, MAGA Nazis are now going to triple down on their hateful dreams. What’s so comical is if they could just wean themselves off of sucking Trump’s cock, they might be able to cruise into winning the 2024 election, no cheating necessary.

But, at the moment at least, that doesn’t seem to be what is going to happen.

If you throw in a severe recession in 2023 – 2024 and the potential of a Singularity happening at the same time…it’s very possible that MAGA Nazis — even if their nominee is Trump — will be able to have something of a Red Wave. Then the United States turns into an autocracy and I am pig tied and shot in the back of the head by an ICE agent after I get drunk at some point after 2025 and rant about how our Very American Autocrat can suck my cock.

Anyway, it’s all very disheartening. There’s just not much we can do. MAGA Nazis have their talking points and, really, the question becomes do they finally decide to start murdering people like me in cold blood on an individual basis or do they wait until they can use the power of the state to do it for them.

I’m Not A Fan Of How Every Element Of American Society Is Now Siloing Because of Politics

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

Every day, Twitter grows more and more problematic for me to use. It definitely seems as though Elon Musk is actively pushing anti-MAGA people like me off the platform. I feel like MAGA propaganda is being pushed into my face whether I like it or not.

I have begun to use the center-Left Twitter clone Post some and I really enjoy it. And, yet, I have to admit that I’m alarmed that even social media is being siloed into different political groups.

This touches on the issue that MAGA Nazis are eating our democracy from within, using our well-meaning “tolerance” to plot their return to power. MAGA Nazis have a lot of momentum behind them at the moment and we’re not going to do anything until it’s too fucking late.

I suppose it’s possible that there will be a National Divorce — initiated by Blue States — in late 2024, early 2025…but I neither want that nor would think that Blues have it in them to do such a thing. It definitely seems as though all systems are go for the United States to transform into a MAGA Nazis autocratic fascist state the moment we have another Republican president.

Nothing might change at first, but eventually, in fits and starts the America that we all assumed would always be there…would be no more.

So, I think future historians will look back at how we’ve grown so divided politically there is NO element of our society that wasn’t divided into two sides as a sign that the end of American democracy was near.

Age Isn’t Just A Number

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

It took me going to South Korea for about five years for me to realize I wasn’t a journalist but rather the more nebulous “creative type.”As such, I wasted at least a decade of my life thinking I might work for, say, The Richmond Times-Dispatch.

I’m old.

In highsight, that dream was both delusional and laughable.

Age, while as immutable as sex or race, is not a metric you really think about as something you have to contend with as something that might stand in the way of your dreams.

And, yet, here I am, nearly 50, realizing that even if I get what I want — to write a breakout pop novel — I won’t get what I REALLY want, which is to be a young successful writer living in New York City chasing hot chicks. Even if I stick the landing with this first novel, I’m still going to be so old that it would be extremely creepy for me to attempt to hang out with 24 year olds. And, what’s worse, all my female peers are now too old have children.

AND, if I DID manage to be a father, I’m so old that the whole thing would be weird.

I spent way, way, way too much time grieving over a failed magazine in South Korea to the point that even if I become successful at last, it will be considered “later in life.” My age, unto itself, will be the hook that everyone mentions when talking about my career.

And that’s if I stick the landing with this first novel. It could be that a combination of me being bonkers and being extremely conspicuous online with my drunken bonkerness combined with my age will make any literary agent worth their salt turn up their nose at me. I already can’t get literary types to help me with my manuscript — even if I offer to pay them!

It’s a very disheartening.

There’s just not anything I can do about it. No matter how successful I might ultimately become, the issue of what I did for about 15 years after leaving South Korea — nothing — will be a topic of conversation.

I hate that. I want to be judged on the merits of my talent, not how old I am. But that window of opportunity is gone. If I was 20 years younger, everything would be different. I would be normal.

I don’t know — am I having a midlife crisis?

Sometimes, I Wonder

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

There’s no reason for anyone from South Korea to care one bit about me. And, yet, to this day, occasionally someone from ROK will either look at my LinkedIn profile or look at this site.

It’s very curious.

I haven’t been in South Korea in a long, long time. For me, it’s a very romanticized era in my life, which is the inspiration for a six novel project. The idea that anyone that I know from my days in ROK would even think about me is something I find very puzzling.

I suppose I made a bigger impression on people that I realized. And I have to remember that the long-term expats in South Korea have a very, very, very long collective memory. And that doesn’t even begin to address all the Koreans who were around, watching, as I went rather bonkers for a few months in late 2006 – 2008.

It makes me wonder what might happen if I ever return to South Korea for a little trip. It’s not going to happen anytime soon, but there are definitely a few people in South Korea who would have a VERY STRONG reaction to seeing me again.

The ironic thing about it all is, of course, that I’m a very different person than I was back then. I’ve turned into a graybeard and have far more humility than I ever did while I was living in South Korea.

In a way, I wish people in South Korea would just forget me. And, yet, I have to accept that I was very much a larger than life figure for a brief and shining moment a long time ago.