Month: January 2024

January 6th Counterfactuals

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

I really struggle to imagine what would have happened had Trump force the Secret Service to take him to the Capitol on January 6th like he wanted them to. I don’t think he would have been any more success with Pence certifying the vote, but I do think the January 6th clusterfuck would have been a quantum leap worse.

The more I think about it, the more I think we came very, very close to going to the show with January 6th. If Pence had done as Trump wanted him to do — not certify the vote — there is a pretty good chance that there would have been the revolution then civil war that I have been predicting for much of the last three years.

All the conditions were there for the United States to buckle had Pence not found the guts to simply do a very ceremonial job. The country would have probably had a something akin to a Glorious Blue Revolution the moment Pence balked at certifying the vote. Too many people weren’t paying attention to what was going on with Trump and Certification at the crisis was taking place.

So, if Pence had successfully allow Trump to stage a coup….Jesus Christ would things have gotten hot really quick in the United States.

I’m just grateful that they didn’t. We still have time to save ourselves, not that we will.

January 6th, Three Years Later

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

Given how dire some of my personal predictions about the next 18 months are, it’s very possible that Mike Pence may have single-handedly given the Republic four years to — somehow — save itself.

And what have we done with that time?

Jack shit.

Rather than using the fours years that Pence afford us by lighting his political career on fire, we’ve just mentally masturbated over the “who shot John” elements of Trumplandia, not really addressing the central issue: Donald Trump.

So here we are, potentially about to either turn into a MAGA-themed autocracy, or have a civil war / revolution. I say this because it seems clear that America was the cusp of a civil war / revolution on January 6th, 2021. It is simply amazing that the the insurrectionists we sooooooo dumb and disorganized that they didn’t try the Paris Commune endgame and simply squatted in the Capitol building until there demands were met.

I fear this will not be the case next time, should such an occasion arise.

I almost went to D.C on January 6th to cover certification, but it was too cold and I knew that I would head home well before dark, anyway. I’m so broke it’s just not practical for me to go to D.C. unless the financial conditions in my personal life are juuuuuust right.

So, even if I had gone up there that day, I seriously doubt I would have been around when the crowd attacked the Capitol. It’s possible, but not probable. And I would have only done it because of the heat of the moment and my natural journalistic instinct to go where the story takes me.

Anyway, the thing about Mike Pence is he is such a fucking Trump toady that he simply did not have the courage to go the same route as Liz Chaney. He could have totally revamped his career had he become a virulent #NeverTrumper. But it’s too late now, lulz.

I just don’t know what to expect in 2024 and 2025. It could be that Trump is just a quirk of history and will fade into oblivion, or it could be that the man single handedly destroys not just democracy in the United States, but manages to cause the collapse of the post-WW2 global liberal order.

So, I guess we just wait at this point.

America Has a Third Columnist Problem

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

I’m listening to the All-In podcast and I’m stunned at how much Tech Bro David Sacks is a third columnist. The term “third columnist” was something used back in the bad old days to denote someone who was helping the fascist / communist enemy from within.

I think the term is apropos for fascist Tech Bros like Sacks.

And, I have to note how tone deaf and out-of-touch these otherwise very wealthy, powerful and well-educated men are. They say some of the dumbest shit. They seem to get really worked up about things that only help our enemies within and without.

The thing about it is, I listen to All-In specifically to challenge the center-Left echo chamber media narrative that I too often find myself surrounded by on an intellectual manner. And, I will admit, listening to All-In helps me build up anti-bodies to the fascist, America First agenda talking points.

I have nothing personal against Sack, but some of his views can be very, very grating on the nerves –at least to me.

Then Again, Maybe Not

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

I thought I had gotten into the second act of the third draft of my first novel, only to realize the last few days that I was getting lazy and relying too much on copy I wrote for the second draft. As such, I’m going to take a deep breath and force myself to re-write copy. I have a few second draft scenes that I’m going to grandfather in to the alpha release of the third draft, but not as many as before.

So, I’m totally rewriting the last chapter of the first act. Even though this is a pain in the butt and pushes me back some, in general it has to be done because not only have I changed a great deal of the first act, but my storytelling ability has improved a great deal since I wrote a lot of the copy for the second draft.

So, I’m going to sit down this afternoon and game out the rest of the last chapter of the first act before I then turn around and actually write the scenes. THEN I can start to work on the beginning of the second act.

But, in general, things are otherwise moving at a pretty nice clip. I still, at the moment, am on schedule to wrap the alpha release of the third draft up by no later than mid-April.

Wish me luck.

I Have Some Questions About That ‘ET’ In Miami

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

Something curious happened in Miami the other day and it leaves me with a lot of questions. So, here’s what we know — a HUGE number of Miami police officers rushed to the scene around one of the malls in Miami. They apparently went to the scene because a bunch of teens were causing trouble and shooting off fireworks.

Ok, here’s where things get weird.

There is footage — in the dark, natch — of some sort of “creature” walking around the scene as well.

But here’s the catch — that’s all we got. There’s no up close, clear footage of such a huge creature walking around the middle of a major American city. You’d think SOMEONE would have a cellphone with a camera and have recorded the incident in a far less ambiguous manner.

And if there was some sort of space alien involved, where was there ship? And what happened later that night? Was the creature taken into custody by the police? And you mean to tell me that the single biggest event in Human History — Hard First Contact — just happened and everyone lulzed it? No leaks? No people screaming at the top of their lungs that aliens have landed?

It’s all very curious. It does give us a sense of what might happen if Hard First Contact did actually happen. I think you’d be surprised by how blasé people would be once it was clear that the ETs came in peace. I think (most) people would just shrug and move on to the next thing.

Of The New York Times & Class

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

I’m reading the new book “The Times” about the recent history of The New York Times and I’m taken aback by how aspirational working for The Old Gray Lady continues to be in my mind.

I’m too old for it to be any such thing, of course. And, what’s more, reading the book keeps reminding me of the issue of class. For all my ability to fake a good conversation with someone who works at The Times, there is no denying that in the end, they would dismiss me because of — if nothing else — my socio-economic status.

I’m broke as fuck.

Which, of course, raises the issue of what might happen if my novel is some sort of break out hit (this is just a daydream at the moment). I think, in fact, that being a best selling author would be just about the ONLY WAY that anyone who worked at The New York Times might take me seriously.

Even then, I would be an outsider. I just have to accept that as the old saying goes, “You take yourself wherever you go.”

‘Hard First Contact’

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

Imagining what would happen if Hard First Contact happened is a good thought exercise because it gives us a chance to game out what might happen if Something Big happened in the conditions of the modern world.

For the purposes of this scenario, I’m going to assume that the aliens that contact us know everything about us, rather than be elusive God-like creatures as seen in the movie 2001.

As such, it seems as though if there was some sort of Hard First Contact that these well-versed aliens would probably want to talk to the UN first. Or maybe not, maybe they would want to talk to the leaders of the G20. But that’s besides the point.

The United States is so fucking divided at the moment that I fear not even something as momentous as Hard First Contact would do squat to unite it. After the shock wore off, the two sides would go back to their individual echo chambers to process the event.

The center-Left (of which I’m a part) would probably see Hard First Contact as an opportunity to unite the globe, solve issues like AI and global climate change and any number of other global issues. They would see Hard First Contact as an opportunity to take the human species collectively to the next level of human evolution.

MEANWHILE, the ding-dong MAGA people would freak the fuck out and want to nuke them or convert the aliens to Christianity. There would be some MAGA people who would see Hard First Contact as a chance to trade and as, such, make a lot of money.

But, in general, MAGA would probably turn its eyes to malignant ding-dong Trump to see what he thought about the issue. And, yet, as I mentioned, I suspect eventually, inevitably, MAGA evangelicals would grab a cross and a Bible and start to demand the opportunity to spread the Good Word to the galaxy.

Of course, there is also a chance that New Age potheads would start to begin to form some sort of dumb cult / religion around the aliens because they’re dumb and high.

Anyway, the point is — the United States is hyper divided and we’re fucked. It’s one of those things where it definitely seems as though 2024 – 2025 could see us going to the show.

I Really Like Rita Ora

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

In this weirdly puritanical world we live in now, it’s nice to see a woman like Rita Ora not be afraid to show some skin. And, from what I can tell, she’s got a great personality, too. And she’s a talented singer. She’s the complete package.

Rita Ora

In short, I’m a fan.

I find it so annoying how shy some of the smoking hot women in the public eye these days are. Though, it is equally interesting how some high end models like Kendall Jenner seem like if Playboy was still culturally relevant they might be willing to do a spread for it.

Showing skin has ALWAYS been a flex for women in the upper strata of society. I mean, there was once a woman hundreds of years ago who had a dress designed specifically to show off her best breast in public!

Just thinking about the cultural demise of Playboy makes me feel very, very old. The rise of Internet porn and OnlyFans has really fucked up what was a pretty useful social construct. It used to be, when I was growing up, that it was quite an honor for someone like Rita Ora or Kendall Jenner to do the occasional Playboy spread if they were either in the mood or had something to promote.

Now, ugh.

Though, the case could be made that when MAGA “catches the car” and bans online porn that we may see a return to print editions of men’s magazines like Playboy. Or we just might see a lot of people using VPNs and nothing will change.

But back to Ms. Ora. She’s so cool. She isn’t a prude like Katy Parry who has a smoking hot body — and incredible breasts — but will never, ever show them. (Do I sound like a dirty old man? Probably.)

I dunno. The issue for me is any society that doesn’t give smoking hot women in the public eye at least a venue to show some T&A is fucked up. But, here we are. It’s kind of sad.

Things Are Going Really Well With The Third Draft Of My First Novel

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

As I am apt to do, I talked a lot about my novel today at both a bar and while I got my hair cut. And while I got a mixed reception from both my bartender and my haircutter, I think third parties listening to me describe the plot of the novel were quite interested.

They didn’t say anything, but they looked at me in a weird way.

Don’t know what to make of that.

But I hope to move pretty fast with this novel. And I also hope to start to read, watch and develop more as well. I’m really feeling my age these days.

Wish me luck.

Our Coming Moment of Historic Truth

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

For me, the issue is not if Trump wins or loses in 2024, but what happens after that. It is easy to imagine that either way, Trump could very well cause a civil war, if for different reasons. He might cause a civil war if he loses because he demands a National Divorce to keep himself out of jail.

Meanwhile, he could cause a revolution THEN a civil war if he wins because he will simply be such a ham-handed tyrant –a Red King, if you will — that the country will be brought to its knees.

As such, we have to start to think about what happens if we’re pushed to the breaking point as a nation. Is it possible that for the Traditionalists who are the backbone of any stable democracy, there is no red line when it comes to Trump? Is is possible that they are soooooo anxious about the browning of America and the rise of women with more reproductive and economic agency that they will ride the pony of fascism all the way down?

I would like to THINK that the Traditionalists I know would at least have the Red Line of the personal. I would like to think that would happen. And, yet, who knows. It could be that they’ll simply become Good Germans and keep their heads down and just shrug if weaponized ICE agents come after me because I won’t shut the fuck up about what a piece of shit Trump is.

That moment of truth is really the issue at hand. The fate of the United States will be determined by Traditionalists. I say this because they are the people who are center-Right and provide the stability of the United States. If they actually are riled up by Tyrant Trump’s either demand for a National Divorce in 2024 because he loses or if he goes totally bonkers and tyrannical in 2025 should he win…then, well, freedom in the United States will have a fighting chance.

It could go either way, though. It really could.