So, I decided to buy JK Rowling’s self-indulgent mystery tome out of spite towards the “woke cancel culture mob.” I have a feeling, given my dissipated youth that if I manage to miraculously sell my first novel, I’m probably going to get canceled pretty quick.
But, who knows, maybe I’ve overthinking things.
Something about why Rowling has been so vehemently “canceled” doesn’t set well with me. Her “cancelation” because of viewpoint that a lot of average people have is very troubling for a number of reasons. It’s because of shit like that that we got Trump.
When the average person begins to believe they risk their entire life being ruined for holding a view that seems pretty obvious and simple — then you have a serious problem. That’s when they start to doubt the very legitimacy of democracy and fascism becomes more and more appealing to them.
And I say all of this as someone who fucking hates the MAGA New Right. I suppose you might call it a little bit of political tough love. In the end, I think the “woke” era is going to end either when we have a civil war or when we turn into an autocracy.
Team Trump is caterwauling about a photo taken of Top Secret documents at Mar-a-Lago by the FBI. The reason is, of course, is it really hits home what was going on. And given that how much MAGA is freaking out about the picture, it’s obvious that MAGA “thought leaders” feel the photo is hurting them politically.
The big issue that they have with the photo is that is makes like they discovered the documents that way. But, if you look carefully at the photo, the box that the documents (not in this photo, but in another photo) were being stored is right there. So, the real reason why MAGA is freaking out is the photo tells the story of what was going on.
It’s a simple to understand of element of an abstract scandal. Which is exactly why MAGA hates it so much. And given the how potent the picture has been, I think maybe Trump shouldn’t release the CCTV footage of the FBI raid. That would, too, give the average person some sense, in concrete terms, the scope of what was going on at Mar-a-Lago.
Anyway, I think we need to accept that Trump continues to be above the law and he is bending both our political and criminal systems. And there comes a point when we have to put up or shut up about the existential crisis we face of autocracy or civil war.
We’re in the danger zone. We’re past the event horizon for some pretty fucked up things happening in the United States one way or another.
I’ve been reading a political biography of Hitler in an effort to better understand Trump and I continue to be startled by how different the two men are. While Hitler was definitely a right place, right time kind of guy, he had the wherewithal to bend history to his will. He actually had something that Trump obviously doesn’t have — the ability to think in the abstract.
Trump’s political instincts are that of a grunt. He knows what plays to be base — he IS the base — and that’s about it. There are some very dark forces at work in the collective psych of the American population and they are so dark and powerful that all Trump does is coast off of the energy generated by whatever the fuck that is going on.
In a sense, Trump has served his political and historical purpose. He’s weakened America’s political norms to the point that ANY Republican — be it Ron DeSantis or Glenn Youngkin — will be America’s first autocrat. All the conditions are there for us to slip peacefully into autocracy and 20 years from now someone going back and forth between the United States and Russia won’t be able to tell any difference on a political basis.
But there’s a problem — Trump is such a fighter that as long as he has air in his lungs, he’s going to do whatever he can to save his own hide. He really wants to be POTUS again, setting up a situation where Trump is the Republican primary and it’s not POTUS, but veep, that is the position that everyone wants so bad. Trump is such an old, fat tub of lard that whomever he picks to be his veep will have a good chance of being America’s Putin.
Of course, there is another issue — Trump could cause a civil war in a variety of ways.
An Effort to Stop Criminal Accountability This is the one scenario whereby the MAGA New Right people who keep coming to this Website looking for a sooner-rather-than-later timetable for being able to murder people like me without criminal recourse might happen. If Trump really felt he might, at last, face some criminal accountability, he could very well begin to rant that Red States need to leave the Union because of how unjust it all is. I suppose he might, in general, demand in his usual dog whistle kind of way general political violence, but I doubt it. When you have an entire party — the Republican Party –with a cult-like devotion to you, why go for general violence when you can get entire states to leave the Union at your behest?
A Ploy to Convict Biden / Harris in the Senate In this scenario, it’s 2023 and Republicans have gone nuts. They have impeached both Biden and Harris out of spite. Now, for Trump to actively be trying to destroy the country, he would, of course, need to have some personal investment in it. So, this one only really works if he is the Speaker of the House and he thinks he can become POTUS again early. So, in a bid to scare the living shit out of the Senate, he, as Speaker, begins to demand Red States leave the Union in order to get what he wants. He says this just as a rhetorical flourish, but MAGA legislatures take him seriously and states, probably beginning with Texas, begin to convene Secessionist Conventions. An away we go.
A 2024 Clusterfuck — MAGA Counter Revolution This endgame was two parts to it. It could be that at some point in late 2024, after Election Day, it will be obvious to Blue States that the election was stolen and they have no recourse but to begin the process of leaving the Union. By the time Certification Day 2025 rolls around, we are in a full fledged Secession Crisis. The other possibility is that Trump wins outright — even though he’ll cheat no matter what — and by late January it becomes clear that Trump’s second term agenda is so fascist and radical that Blue States begin to leave the Union.
But there is a problem with such thinking — Trump, unlike Hitler, really isn’t smart enough to do anything as diabolical as do the simple act of telling Red states to leave the Union in an effort to protect him. If he did it, it would be out of extreme desperation caused by his mind being focused by the prospect of going to prison.
The point is — America’s political culture is going to be very bumpy between now and January 205. Something’s gotta give. We can’t keep this up forever. We’re going to fish or cut bait on the fate of our democracy at some point.
As someone who is struggling to write a mystery-thriller, the description of J.K. Rowling’s latest novel sounds fascinating. The idea that she could write a 1,000 page novel about a person that fits her description who is murdered for their views on transgender people seems pretty tough to do.
I guess it’s an example of how any publicity is good publicity. I still find why she’s in so much trouble kind of crazy. It’s a testament not to the “woke cancel culture mob” but just that the younger generations come up have dramatically different expectation about certain things than Olds. But that is to be expected. The only difference is how fast it’s all happening — there is a definite Singularity-like quickness to how things are changing in culture these days and a lot of Olds are having trouble adapting.
Also, buying a novel from such a problematic author fits into my personality of being generally ornery. I hate the idea that I am forbitten from reading something just because the Youngs have “canceled” her. I haven’t read ANYTHING else she’s written — I’m not a fan of fantasy, to say the least — and I think maybe reading such a book would be a good introduction to her writing.
Maybe. I don’t know. I just feel like being weird and buying the book to see how she manages to write that many words, essentially, about herself. It seems extremely self-indulgent.
I think, in the end, the Justice Department will simply be so glad to get the documents that Trump stole back that they will punt on actually holding Trump criminally accountable. The nation is too divided and the Right has already begun the process of baking into the cake yet another Trump scandal. Trump will continue to warp our political and criminal system because of the absolute fidelity of the MAGA base and that will be that.
The key issue is, of course, that Trump’s usual political bullshit is working. And because the wheels of justice are so slow that ultimately, the whole thing will be see through the lends of politics and, by definition, Trump wins.
And, as such, the it seems as though we’re going to zoom towards Election Day 2022. Then we find out if the fascists take Congress again. The Trump announces for 2024 and then we zoom towards the complete clusterfuck of 2024.
At the moment, it seems, that 2024 is going to be it. We will face the existential choice of autocracy or civil war. I think it’s obvious — at least at the moment — that we’re just going to slip into some form of autocracy. That’s our fate. Get out while you still can.
To date, Trump has only gone transactional once — on January 6th. And he ony did so because it was personal and he was desperate. Below are three ways that Trump could start a civil war by going transactional.
An Effort to Stop Criminal Accountability This is the one scenario whereby the MAGA New Right people who keep coming to this Website looking for a sooner-rather-than-later timetable for being able to murder people like me without criminal recourse might happen. If Trump really felt he might, at last, face some criminal accountability, he could very well begin to rant that Red States need to leave the Union because of how unjust it all is. I suppose he might, in general, demand in his usual dog whistle kind of way general political violence, but I doubt it. When you have an entire party — the Republican Party –with a cult-like devotion to you, why go for general violence when you can get entire states to leave the Union at your behest?
A Ploy to Convict Biden / Harris in the Senate In this scenario, it’s 2023 and Republicans have gone nuts. They have impeached both Biden and Harris out of spite. Now, for Trump to actively be trying to destroy the country, he would, of course, need to have some personal investment in it. So, this one only really works if he is the Speaker of the House and he thinks he can become POTUS again early. So, in a bid to scare the living shit out of the Senate, he, as Speaker, begins to demand Red States leave the Union in order to get what he wants. He says this just as a rhetorical flourish, but MAGA legislatures take him seriously and states, probably beginning with Texas, begin to convene Secessionist Conventions. An away we go.
A 2024 Clusterfuck — MAGA Counter Revolution This endgame was two parts to it. It could be that at some point in late 2024, after Election Day, it will be obvious to Blue States that the election was stolen and they have no recourse but to begin the process of leaving the Union. By the time Certification Day 2025 rolls around, we are in a full fledged Secession Crisis. The other possibility is that Trump wins outright — even though he’ll cheat no matter what — and by late January it becomes clear that Trump’s second term agenda is so fascist and radical that Blue States begin to leave the Union.
The question, of course, is how likely is it that malignant dingus Trump would summon the wherewithal to go transactional sooner rather than later, say, to save his sorry ass from facing any criminal accountability. That is a real mystery. What happened on January 6th was such a specific, simple situation on a cognitive level that to think Trump could summon up the mental acuity necessary to bring the country down via some sort of secessionist crisis is kind of pushing it.
I just don’t think he has it in him. He talks a good talk, but unlike, say, Hitler, Trump is just playing himself. He can’t bend history to his will like Hitler did. As such, for the time being, at least, I think we’re fairly safe. There will be a lot of talk about a civil war, but, in the end, we’ll just slip into autocracy. Millions of wealthy liberals will flee the country and the country will circle the autocratic drain.
So, last night, Right Wing talking head Charlie Kirk popped a gasket over the fact that Dark Brandon called MAGA, “semi-fascist.” Now, this is hilarious for a number of reasons ,chief among them being it’s very self-evident that there’s no “semi” about it — MAGA is fascist.
It’s a testament to how fucked up our political system is that just because Biden said was is patently obvious –MAGA is fascist — people like Kirk are even more determined to be…fascist. It’s all yet another sign of how the country is lurching towards some sort of Great Reset or Fourth Turning no later than late 2024 – early 2025.
We just can’t keep this level of political uncertainty up forever. Something’s gotta give. There has to be a point when we either slip into autocracy or we collapse into civil war. The more the center-Left wakes up to the fascist dangers of MAGA and the more we gird our loins for how to address American fascism, the more this only serves to enrage MAGA.
So, either Blues throw down the gauntlet when MAGA steals the 2024 election and begin to leave the Union, or we just give up and all the wealthy liberals who might otherwise help the Blue cause abscond to the south of France.
One day, we all may be Antifa.
MAGA thinks the American center-Left is communist and the center-Left thinks MAGA is fascist, then, well, then there’s your sign that American democracy is finally dead and we’re either going to start murdering each other for political reasons or slide into a Russian-style autocracy. There is no middle ground. Pick a side. Or a side will be chosen for you.
So, I’ve been ranting about the existential choice of autocracy or civil war in the United States starting at some point in late 2024, early 2025 for some time now. And the general drift of the country on a macro level definitely seems to indicate I might — gulp — turn out to be right.
The question for me is — will anyone notice or care?
I don’t think so. I think the best I can expect is some writer for The New Yorker or The Atlantic will read some of what I’ve written as part of their overall research into the issue and THEY will get all the credit. I’m a nobody loser crank in the middle of nowhere. There’s absolutely no reason for anyone to care enough about me to give me any credit for it
So, ultimately, if what I fear happens, I’m probably going to be just another nameless either victim of weaponized ICE or a political refugee who flees north to try to get to at state that better fits my Blue political point of view. Nothing of note will happen because I was right.
As I often mention, they say you go bankrupt gradually then all at once. As such, the “all at once” part of any Second American Civil War will be when there’s a sudden surge of domestic political refugees as Blues in Red states and Reds in Blue states flee for their personal safety.
If that happens, we’re going to the show — we’re going to have, at a minimum a National Divorce and probably a 2ACW. Of course, this would happen in the context of most of your wealthy liberals simply fleeing the country altogether. It’s already happening, to some extent — wealthy liberals are getting second passports if they can.
So, if the final collapse into civil war happens, you’re going to see a huge amount of wealthy liberals simply leave the rest of the country to its own devices. Meanwhile, those who have the means will simply flee to a state that better suits their political beliefs. This would probably be happening in the context not only of a shit ton of political violence, but either Red or Blue states actively beginning the process of secession. I would also keep an eye on the major conservative media outlets in New York City — and Trump Tower. IF things were really getting really bad, there’s a good chance that there would be a popular revolt in NYC to the point that Fox News, The Wall Street Journal and The New York Post might be physically attacked — as would Trump Tower. That would be a clear sign that the shit was hitting the fan.
The big issue is when all of this will happen. Will it happen sooner — when Trump goes transactional to avoid criminal accountability — or will it happen later when Blue states realize they are faced with either bending a knee to MAGA fascism, or bouncing.
But, as of right now, I still don’t think we’re going to have a civil war. Something rather dramatic will have to happen, some sort of catalyst for either side to seriously being the process of a National Divorce. What that might be, I have no idea. But I do know its possible.
In general, however, I think we’re just going to slouch into autocracy with the only wildcard being malignant dingus Trump.
I’m always wrong. Always. But, just for the sake of argument, let’s think about what might happen if Trump was held criminally accountable. Would there be “riots in the streets” as Sen. Lindsey Graham suggests? This is one of three ways that Trump might start a Second American Civil War.
An Effort to Stop Criminal Accountability This is the one scenario whereby the MAGA New Right people who keep coming to this Website looking for a sooner-rather-than-later timetable for being able to murder people like me without criminal recourse might happen. If Trump really felt he might, at last, face some criminal accountability, he could very well begin to rant that Red States need to leave the Union because of how unjust it all is. I suppose he might, in general, demand in his usual dog whistle kind of way general political violence, but I doubt it. When you have an entire party — the Republican Party –with a cult-like devotion to you, why go for general violence when you can get entire states to leave the Union at your behest?
A Ploy to Convict Biden / Harris in the Senate In this scenario, it’s 2023 and Republicans have gone nuts. They have impeached both Biden and Harris out of spite. Now, for Trump to actively be trying to destroy the country, he would, of course, need to have some personal investment in it. So, this one only really works if he is the Speaker of the House and he thinks he can become POTUS again early. So, in a bid to scare the living shit out of the Senate, he, as Speaker, begins to demand Red States leave the Union in order to get what he wants. He says this just as a rhetorical flourish, but MAGA legislatures take him seriously and states, probably beginning with Texas, begin to convene Secessionist Conventions. An away we go.
A 2024 Clusterfuck — MAGA Counter Revolution This endgame was two parts to it. It could be that at some point in late 2024, after Election Day, it will be obvious to Blue States that the election was stolen and they have no recourse but to begin the process of leaving the Union. By the time Certification Day 2025 rolls around, we are in a full fledged Secession Crisis. The other possibility is that Trump wins outright — even though he’ll cheat no matter what — and by late January it becomes clear that Trump’s second term agenda is so fascist and radical that Blue States begin to leave the Union.
Well, I will admit that the country is on edge. And I will admit that there the conditions are there for severe political violence to happen pretty at any moment. But it takes a lot for even the most bonkers fascist MAGA New Right person to risk life and limb to protect a dingus like Trump. Or, put another way, as much as MAGA New Right people have murdering people like me in cold political blood on the brain, they want a civil war to officially start to do it so they won’t be held criminally accountable.
The events of January 6th were very specific to that moment. It helped a lot that Trump went transactional and told the crowd in front of him that they were going to march down the the Capitol together. (Of course, the shock troops of the Proud Boys were already there, waiting for the rest of the mob to arrive)
So, as such, I think ultimately a lot would rest on what Trump did. It wouldn’t be so much that Trump was indicted or otherwise held accountable, it would be that he went transactional and TOLD the MAGA New Right to burn the country to the ground. Or, even more dire, he might demand that MAGA state legislatures to convene Secessionist Conventions for the specific purpose of putting pressure on the Federal government to protect his sorry ass. Then, things might get out of control and the next thing you know, you have an honest-to-God National Divorce on your hands.
Of course, there is the other option that maybe we might have a 1968-type event, like what happened after Dr. Martin Luther King was murdered, only with white people. There might be some sort of spasm of violence on the part of MAGA New Right cocksuckers.
I honestly don’t know if there would be riots if Trump was held criminally accountable. But I do know that the prospect of such violence is going to be a talking point we hear a lot — A LOT — from the usual suspects of the MAGA New Right going forward.
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