While I’m not prepared to go full prepper, I do think that we have to take the idea of Something Big happening between now and, say, spring 2025 seriously. I don’t quite know what that Something Big might be, but, whatever it is, it will be pretty bad.
To the point that I — and millions of other Americans — may become domestic political refugees. I’m really concerned that the hyperpolarization we’re experiencing at the moment is precursor to a National Divorce and, as such, a Second American Civil War. And if it happens, it’s going to happen like a thunderclap.
In fact, if I had the means, I would already be back in South Korea living as a long-term expat again. I’m that concerned about what’s about to happen to the United States. Though, I have to admit that if the United States goes belly up that WW3 would probably break out and being in South Korea when that happens probably isn’t ideal.
If the worst happened, I would use the existing refugee infrastructure that would have sprung up by that point to head north. My ultimate goal would be somewhere like New York City where I think I would be able to make the most difference. U.S. Grant did a whole lot of nothing for most of the 1850s, who knows, The Finger of God might point at me as part of a Second American Civil War and I might be able to make the best of a very bad situation.
That’s me being extremely delusional, I know, but it’s better than moping about how it’s possible that instead of struggling to get my first novel published soon, I’m going to be struggling just to survive.
I really don’t know what to make of Marjorie Taylor Greene. If there was ever a ping from an extremely dark future, it is the rise of MTG on the political scene. Apparently, MTG has Speaker McCarthy by the short ones and he is something of her plaything.
The thing about MTG is she seems just a tick or two away from being just as bonkers as Trump. And, yet, she also far more focused and power hungry in an actionable way than Trump. While Trump pretty much just flails around, not really doing anything, it seem as though given actual power that MTG might be actually be the autocrat that Trump wants to be.
As I have often said, the issue of the moment is not so much Trump as who he will pick to be his veep in 2024. Trump is so old and fat that if he manages to become POTUS again without causing a fucking civil war, then whomever is his veep could very well be on the fast track to becoming POTUS.
As such, I’m growing more and more alarmed with MTG. It could be her, not Trump or DeSantis who will be our first autocrat. But she would have to win the veepstakes first. There are any number of fucking would-be autocrats who Trump could pick. Everyone from Pompeo to Hawley are chomping at the bit to be Trump’s veep and, as such, our first autocrat.
I don’t think people really appricate who primed and ready the United States is for the type of legalistic autocracy that Russia has. In my mind, by definition, our next Republican president will be our first autocrat. A sizeable chunk of the American population — mostly white Christian men, natch — are all-in on the idea of autocratic MAGA fascism. They may not really articulate it that way, but from my conversations with my Traditionalist relatives — they want autocratic MAGA fascism.
What’s so comical about all of this is, of course, that when you press them on the consequences of what they want — that I would inevitably run afoul of the autocrat they want so much — they get really upset. They don’t seem able to connect the fact that while they would be Good Germans under the Fourth Reich, I, alas, am such a drunk loudmouth crank that it is inevitable that I would endup with an ICE bullet in the back of my head.
While I believe the historical concepts posited by the book The Fourth Turning to be nothing more than astrology for men who listen to Joe Rogan, I definitely get why the some people have really bought into the idea. I occasionally find myself walking around, say, buying groceries, when I think about what it would be like to walk into the store in the middle of a civil war.
I imagine some day in the near future where I’m scavenging for what food I can find in a trashed and ransacked store. I think this because I see how, on a macro level, the conditions for a Fourth Turning or Great Reset are floating around. I was alarmed to see a young man wearing a shirt advocating extreme guns rights.
I was reminded of how America is cleaving into two waring camps, one Red, one Blue. The issue is, of course, will we manage to muddle through this particular problem like we have since 1865 or if we’re going to implode into a Second American Civil War.
The idea that there is such a thing as a “Fourth Turning” plays into how a lot of other people are seeing what I’m seeing. The human mind is designed to see patterns and, as such, the idea that there is a regular pattern to history “feels true” and we use it as some comfort that the world around us isn’t as completely random as we fear.
But, as alas, the world, in general, really is random. Even the writers of The Fourth Turning admit that their all-powerful theory doesn’t explain why the American Civil War happened when it did. A charitable explanation would be a few Wig presidents died and, as such, the Civil War happened earlier than it might have happened according to the book’s historical dictate.
Or, you could say that the whole thing is bullshit and the authors of The Fourth Turning are giving meaning to the pretty meaningless ebb and flow of macro historical forces. We know the general movement of those forces, but we don’t know their destination. The interaction between Great Men (and Women) and macro historical forces is what makes it impossible in real terms for anyone — least of all the authors of The Fourth Turning — to predict what the fuck is going to happen.
The key thing when thinking about a Fourth Turning in the United States is it actually possible that Blue States, when faced with the prospect of being forced to “bend a knee” to autocratic MAGA fascism will actually be willing to secede from the Union? That is pretty much the whole shebang when it comes to how likely a civil war is anytime soon.
Given how politically ascendant they are, there really isn’t much reason for Red States to leave the Union. If it happens, it’s going to be Blue States. But I’m always wrong. Aways. So, as such, I think we’ll just muddle through and gradually transition into some sort of legalistic autocratic fascism like they have in Russia at the moment.
The only thing I worry about is America’s original sin, race. If the United States turns into an autocratic fascist state, there is every reason to believe it’s very possible we may zoom past Russia and turn into a Very American Fourth Reich. But I still don’t know — it could go either way at the moment.
There is a famous anecdote from the very end of the Civil War when a former slave is claimed to have told a bunch of white people that, “bottom rail is on top now.”
Ok, here’s my movie pitch.
The movie opens with a montage about a virus that wiped out much — but not all — of humanity. After a lot of chaos, death and destruction, humanity manages to bounce back. But here’s the twist — white people are now in the minority and pretty much the entire globe is run by black and brown people.
You would have to be very careful how you approached this story, but in general, the point would be to confront white people in the audience with how systemic racism is real TODAY. The movie would be an excuse to highlight the macro social injustice that POC have to endure in our modern world.
You might suggest that white people in this future world are blamed for the the destruction of the old world and that only adds to the prejudice that they face. Now there are obvious risks to this move in the sense that Right wing nutjobs might completely miss the point of the story and latch on to it as a parable about the perils of illegal immigration.
Ugh.
This is why we can’t have nice things.
Anyway, it’s an interesting idea. It’s a more realistic end-of-the-word scenario than is in most fiction these days.
No matter how much people like Peter Thiel may believe they are going to be immortal by regular blood infusions from fucking virgins, we all eventually kick the bucket. The interesting thing is, we’re just about at the moment when a number of really old, really powerful people are probably going to shuffle off this mortal coil all at once.
Just a back-of-the-envelope survey of Silent and Greatest Generation people in the public eye suggests that the next few years could be quite dramatic for no other reason than nobody lives forever. We haven’t reached the Singularity yet, folks.
Take, for instance the two remaining Beatles. Both Paul and Ringo are now in their 80s and just because they’re rich and active doesn’t mean they can escape basic elements of human existence. There’s a reason why they say death and taxes are the only two things that are inevitable in the world.
And, remember, we may be about to experience a Petite Singularity in conjunction to a moderate to severe recession in which AI causes the economy to shed an unprecedented number of jobs in a very short timeframe.
The is all happening in the context of the looming so-called “Fourth Turning.” I still think the Fourth Turning is astrology for dudes, but is definitely a thought provoking concept given how the United States is careening towards a very dramatic 2024 – 2025.
We’re definitely are heading towards something akin to a Perfect Storm. A part of me believes that 2024 – 2025 could be a historic period equal to 1917 – 1918. A lot of things we take for granted on a macro scale could very well collapse into chaos. Even though I’m always, always wrong, the case could be made that there really could be a Second American Civil War in late 2024, early 2025 that will, in turn lead to WW3 as the post-WW2 global order is destroyed because the United States is too busy destroying itself to do anything about the rest of the world.
I am well aware of how hysterical that sounds. But, lulz, that’s just a possibility at this point. The conditions are there for such things to happen, it doesn’t mean they actually will.
At the moment, we’re experiencing something of a lul. Not a lot is going on one way or another. There are a few blips here and there, like the Biden secret documents screw ups, but in real terms…meh.
It seem as though the main reason for his is the Congressional Republicans are kind of laying low. They’re not screaming at the top of their lungs — yet — about how much most of the Biden Administration needs to be impeached. It makes you wonder how long this moment of tranquility is going to last.
Some of it could be this is the last gasp before there’s a frantic shitshow with Trump coming back to Twitter at the same time that the economy begins to tip into a moderate to severe recession in the context of the Chatbot Revolution. Or not.
It could be that much of this year could be far less eventful than I have gamed out and it won’t be until 2024 that everything collapses into chaos and despair. But things are very quiet right now. Very. Spooky quiet.
Long ago, my dream was to work at either Media General or The Richmond Times-Dispatch. Sadly, it took me about a decade to realize I was being extremely delusional to think that was a possibility for me. I’m just too creative and don’t have the intense, introverted personality that most successful journalists have.
The great irony of it all is that being a successful journalist — or someone in the media — isn’t really that hard. You often have to take something akin to a vow of poverty to pursue the career starting off, but many people go straight from college into a job at a daily like The Richmond Times-Dispatch. That makes me sad that I wasted so much time being oblivious that if I ever become a success, it will be through telling the “truth” through a novel or screenplay rather than the “facts” of journalism.
Over the years, I have seen plenty of cases where people went straight into a daily newspaper environment out of college, grew disillusioned and moved on to something else. This smarts because they so casually were able to drop my dream because they saw what it really took to be a journalist and even though they could do it, just didn’t want to.
I monitor the chatter within the publishing industry through chatter and it’s shocking how bitter people who are far more advanced in their novelist career than I am. Many of these bitter people are “mid-list” authors who have had some success and now are being screwed over in various ways. I totally get that, but I’ve been an aspiring novelist for so long that I would be grateful at this point to be a mid-lister.
All of this happens in the context of me being concerned that not only am I too much of a drunk crank to ever get a literary agent to begin with but that cold, hard fact that I simply can not, will not abide by the strict orthodoxy of the “woke cancel culture mob” that seems to be mainstream among many successful novelist these days.
I know my truth north and if you don’t like it — fuck you. I try to be as empathetic and understanding as possible but when people tell me they will ding my storytelling ability because I don’t have two women having a conversation among something other than a man — Jesus Christ.
I fucking hate this test.
While I don’t support or defend JK Rowling’s anti-trans stance, the mentality of the people who would “cancel” her for having concerns me because, as I keep saying — it’s shit like that that drives Traditionalists in the arms of fascism.
Anyway, I just hate how hysterical both the far Right and the far Left are these days. They have a symbiotic relationship at the moment because they force “radical moderates” like myself to defend the most extreme policy aims of whichever side I am forced to align with.
Since I fucking hate MAGA fascism, I have to defend some pretty kooky woke ideas to my Traditionalist relatives whenever we discuss politics. But, as I keep saying, we all have to pick a side, or a side will be chosen for us. To be a “centrist” is to be complicit in the rise of fascism. Post-truth is pre-fascist and all that.
There are no easy answers and all I want to do is give my audience the best possible story with most fleshed out an interesting characters possible. It will be interesting to see if me being a “delusional jerk with a good heart” will get in the way of that dream.
I’m far more anti-MAGA than Leftist and, as such, sometimes I’m aghast at the hot takes emanating from “cultural Leftists” who Right wing nutjobs would call the “woke cancel culture mob.”
All of this is happening in the context of the United States cleaving into two nations, one Blue, one Red. Usually, Leftist bullshit is a rationalization for why some of the more extreme behavior of going on within Blue circles is a lulz. All of this is very corrosive because it makes it way too easy for my Traditionalists relatives to lean into the extensive permission structure surrounding supporting American fascism.
Everything from “drag queen story hour” for little kids to men wearing skirts is dismissed by the Left as something we all must accept without any question. It’s that inflexible orthodoxy that alarms me because it allows Traditionalists, the bedrock of any functioning democracy to “both sides” things to the point that when the time comes they will willingly vote to give up their American democratic birthright.
I am growing more and more concerned that Something Big is going to happen in late 2024 — early 2025 between Election Day and Certification Day. All the conditions are there there to be a National Divorce which will, in turn cause a Second American Civil War.
Of course, it will only be hindsight that we will look back and go, “Well, OBVIOUSLY there was going to be a 2ACW.” Some of what Leftists cling to so tightly is just dumb. While gender has always been a fluid thing over the generations, everything is happening so fucking fast these days that I continue to fear that 2024 – 2025 could see autocracy, civil war or military junta.
But these are macro issues. I still believe it all boils down to income inequality. One might make the case that the current crisis of masculinity that we’re experiencing in the Western world is pretty much the result of how difficult it is for men to get a good education and, as such, a good enough job that they are seen as valid mates for women who are growing in economic freedom.
One thing I struggle with is the rise of “hot lesbians.” I am well aware that on a basic level women are by default bi-sexual. My own theory on this is that the biological imperative is so absolute when it comes to raising babies that evolution would go so far as to want women to have sex with other women if that ensures that children have a loving home and support.
That’s probably delusional bullshit on my part, but it definitely makes a lot of sense. To me, there is a connection between “hot lesbians” like the singer Fletcher and the model Cara Delevingne and the fact that women demand some very specific metrics when it comes to sperm donors.
Fletcher and Miley Cyrus
Growing numbers of modern women are tired of the bullshit of broke fuckboys and they would rather be treated right by another woman. And since there is little or no taboo surrounding lesbianism (especially among elites) an eye-popping number of traditionally attractive women just don’t find their male counterparts all that attractive.
All of this spooks Traditionalists who see any form of homosexulaity as a “sin.” So, as such, the rest takes care of itself. People like fucking fascist Ron DeSantis demagogue the “gay agenda” of the “woke cancel culture mob” in an effort to goose the base and get votes.
Again, these are macro issues, things beyond the control of any one individual. And to my mind, it all comes to a head in late 2024, early 2025. There is, of course, the possibility that I’m wrong and we’ll punt all these structural problems down the road one more election cycle.
But the conditions are there for something very, very dramatic to happen to the most powerful democracy humanity has ever seen. And, as such, the likely of a “Fourth Turning” or “Great Reset” is real.
No one can predict the future — least of all me –but I am feeling an unease about the next few years.
I don’t know what to tell you folks. I’m of an age where I so jaded that I automatically assume that anything that seems too good be true — is. But you just try to be the best person you can be, I suppose.
I look at what’s going on with American politics these days and I can’t help but be alarmed that my predictions of the United States having the existential choice of autocracy or civil war in late 2024, early 2025 will come true. And here I am, trying to get my first novel sold.
But, lulz, nothing matters.
The novel is getting better by leaps and bounds. At the moment at least, I feel like I have a pretty good handle on how to step up the pace when it comes to writing the second draft. I say this all the time and then I reach a crucial point where everything falls apart and I have to pick up the peices.
But, who knows, maybe this time things will work out and I will get back on track to querying as early as this fall, no latter than about a year from now.
I think of sex work the same way I do pot — I think it should be legalized, regulated and taxed. And, yet, I know OTHER people think about sex work and…oh boy…I think Tik-Tok has a prostitution problem on its hands. I am getting a growing amount of conspicuous videos from call girls who provide their “clients” the “girlfriend experience.”
Shit like that is only going to add to the growing chorus of people in the government who want to ban the service altogether for various national security reasons.
I continue to find Tik-Tok very addictive. I love it and I feel a bit sheepish how many videos of hot chicks doing hot chick shit I get pushed. I’m flooded with videos full of T&A and am very pleased that I do. I may be old, but I’m not dead.
Anyway, having said all that, I do agree that the service is too close to the CCP and should either be banned or sold to a Western company. The fact that Tik-Tok not only has a back door for the CCP but also has been known to track specific journalists in the West is just too much. But our politics are so broken — and Tik-Tok is so popular that it’s either going to be years before we address the situation or ultimately nothing happens.
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