Category: Cold Civil War

We Continue To Overestimate Trump The Man & Underestimate Trump The Idea

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

The thing about Trump is he is, on a personal basis, a very weak malignant ding-dong. He continues to prove day after day that he’s an idiot who is just an avatar who rides the wave of history, rather than bend it to his will. The *idea* of Trump, however, is very, very powerful.

As such, Trump is very dangerous on a political and historical way, but he as a person is so lazy and dumb that he could very well bring the country to its knees if he’s re-elected because of what he represents to the people surrounding him. That’s why even though Trump is a idiot and lazy, the forces around him are smart enough to generate ideas like Agenda 47 and Project 2025.

So, the thing is — Trump is an embarrassing idiot, but a very dangerous embarrassing idiot. Too often, we conflate Trump the man with Trump the political idea. I still continue to worry that Trump in his stupidity could destroy America because he will thrash around in his tyranny in a way that the American people won’t be able to stand.

That, at least, is the nightmare.

If anyone else was in Trump’s position, they would be able to peacefully guide the United States into a Russian-style white Christian ethnostate autocracy. That’s my real nightmare at this point — that Trump will literally snatch people off the street in 2025 and that will lead to America being pushed beyond its political limits and some pretty fucking weird things will happen.

What that might be, I don’t know — and I’m not advocating anything.

But I still have some hope that it’s possible that Biden will win and we’ll punt all of these structural problems down the road for another four years. (I’m still worried that no matter what happens with the 2024 election we will face severe political violence, but that’s just me being paranoid.)

We’ve Given Up

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

What the fuck are we going to do about Trump. He tectonic demographic and political history forces that have put him in the situation he’s in are so powerful, so potent that it definitely seems he’s going to become POTUS again, no matter what.

Then the shit is REALLY going to hit the fan.

A second Trump Administration would be a total, fucking catastrophe in a way not seen since 1865. It would be truly ironic if we found ourselves caused by a civil war that Lincoln wanted to prevent in 1860 and one that Trump wanted to cause in 2024.

It’s really going to be interesting to see how bad things get. Everything is so fucked up and there doesn’t seem to be any ready way to fix things going forward. Trump is so dumb and yet so powerful as an idea to the MAGA fascist New Right that, lulz…virtually ANYTHING could happen between now and early 2025.

Sometimes, I Do Agree With Marc Andreessen

By Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

Marc Andreessen retweeted the above image from I assume Reddit and I have to say I agree. There does seem to be some bad juju in the air at the moment. It does seem as though Something Bad is about to happen in the near, near future.

Now, obviously, my interpretation of this potential Bad Thing is different than his. He thinks some sort of woke DEI hellscape is about to happen, while I think the exactly opposite — I think there’s a real risk the United States is going to lurch into an autocratic state.

Sigh.

Marc Andreessen is an very interesting guy. He’s obviously been Red Pilled and he’s so rich that should the absolute worst happen — the United States decend into anarchy because of fucking ding-dong Trump, he can just hop on a jet and flee the country.

But, alas, Poors like me don’t have that option.

So…lulz?

We Continue To Overestimate Trump The Man & Underestimate Trump The Idea

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

Trump, besides being a malignant ding-dong, is something of a political terrorist. And he get his power from how people conflate his political power with actual power as a person. Politically, because he is an avatar for some pretty messed up shit in our political system, he is something of a God King.

But as an actual human being, he’s just a lazy, dumb piece of shit.

The point is — if he becomes president again, it will say more about us as a nation than him as a political leader.

He’s not a Great Man. He doesn’t warp history to his personal needs, he just rides its trends. And, at the moment, there is a macro trend towards the United States become a white Christian ethnostate — or being forced to decide if it wants to become one — and, as such, Trump could very well become POTUS again.

This, despite what a fucking idiot he is.

So, I dunno. It really could go either way this fall. And if Trump becomes POTUS again, we will have only ourselves to blame.

Never Meet Your Heroes

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

Marc Andreessen changed my life. And, but for the hard wiring of my synapsis, could have made me a billionaire. “I was there,” as the song goes, in the early days of the Web when the first web browser Mosaic, that he designed, was released. I was in college and I immediately realized the potential of this new technology.

If I had a different type brain, I probably would have become a programmer and made my billions in some Web startup as part of the general dotcom boom of the mid-to-late-90s. But, alas, I’m a big old doofus and just know how to write and take pictures.

So.

Why do I bring all of this up?

Well, Andreessen implied tonight on Twitter that the “woke cancel culture mob” is analogous to the excesses of the Chinese Cultural Revolution. There is so much to unpack there.

First, it’s clear that Andreesen has turned into one of those Red Pilled fascist tech bros who would are obsessed with the culture wars to the point that they would give up their American birthright of democracy in exchange for low-to-no-taxes.

Ugh.

Having said that, let’s look close at what he suggests — does he have a point?

Hmmm. This is an interesting question. The issue is, social media has made the weaponization of shaming on a mass scale for the stupidest shit really easy. And, yet, Andreesen is being an asshole to suggest that the “woke cancel culture mob” can be equated with the weird, fucked up shit of the Cultural Revolution.

The two are just not the same.

Oh no, something woke!

The worst that happens to someone who is “canceled” for having views that don’t fit the media narrative is…they become a talking head on Fox News as a martyr to the cause? And sometimes, they face NO accountability other than they don’t get to go to the cool cocktail parties at Martha’s Vineyard anymore. It’s not like the “woke cancel culture mob” is killing people in public.

Now, this is the point where I say I am WELL AWARE of how suspectable I, personally, am to be “canceled” should, for some reason, I blow up with my novel money and become any sort of prominent public cultural figure. I have done plenty — PLENTY — of things over the years in my drunken dissipation that might get me canceled.

And, what’s more, I’m writing a novel that may never get published because I write about things in a way that the “woke cancel culture mob” may blanch at.

So…lulz?

But I still think Andreessen is being a dick. He wants to score culture war points by muddling and conflating things that might SEEM similar, but upon any sort of nuanced reflection definitely aren’t.

Some More Idle Musings About Trump & Hitler From A Political History Standpoint

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

The 2024 election could very well give political historians a great deal more insight into Hitler’s democratic assumption of power in 1933. I say this because Trump is demonstrably a weak candidate at this point. And, barring some Black Swan event, he should be in line to lose to Biden in a pretty dramatic way.

But because of two issues, Trump could STILL become POTUS.

One is how fucked up our political system is. Even semi-functioning democracies like ours have a political ebb and flow to them on a macro basis and as such, Trump remains 60,000 votes in five swing states away from being POTUS, no matter what the fuck he does.

The man is above the laws of the state and of politics. He could eat someone. He could murder someone. He could marry Ivanka. He. Can. Do. Anything and STILL be 60,000 votes in five swing states away from being POTUS again.

The other issue is Trump’s supporters like the “idea” of Trump. They want a white Christian ethnostate where there those sweet, sweet white babies are plentiful and gay people know to be quiet and stay in the closet. Which makes you wonder if that’s what happened with Hitler as he rose to power. To this date, people continue to debate how inevitable it was that Hitler, specifically would become the leader of Germany.

And if Trump is re-elected this year, then the case could be made that the two men are a lot more similar than you might think. Both had a certain momentum to their rise to power and, as such, when the time came, History Found A Way to part the seas so they could take over their nations.

But we’re not there yet. It could go either way. On paper, at least, Trump should lose. But, then, on paper, there was no reason to believe Hitler would be named Chancellor in January 1933.

And yet he was.

As such, I think there is a 50 / 50 chance at the moment that Trump will become POTUS again and all hell will break loose. Some stunning events could happen starting in late 2024, early 2025. Things that we’ve simply never seen before in American political life.

Political opponents might be snatch off the street or flee the country. Thousands of wealthy, well educated people might vote with their feet and leave the country. The idea of “show your papers” might be the central issue of the day. A Constitutional Convention might be a very real possibility.

What’s more, it’s possible that Trump will be so bad at being a tyrant that the Poors in Blue States who don’t have the means to leave the country might actually pull of a General Strike the crashes the economy and forces the U.S. Military to do something about Trump. (Not that I’m advocating anything.)

Anyway, I’m waiting for some future historian to write “Hitler And Trump, a Dual Biography.”

Am (Almost) Querying: Worrying About Liberal White Women Literary Agents & What They Will Think Of My Novel

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

The worst thing anyone else said about me was that I am a “delusional jerk with a good heart.” That was said to me by the late Annie Shapiro while we were in the process of untangling our hearts and minds from each other at the end of ROKon Magazine.

The late Annie Shapiro and me in better days back when I was cute.

She had a point.

But, I’ve had a brain transplant since that statement, said many moons ago. I’m a much more humble, stable person.

And, yet, here I am, about to plunge into the cold, dark waters of querying — in a few months, maybe more — and I am worried about what the liberal white women who make up the vast majority of agents will think of me and my novel.

The novel itself is problematic because even though it’s really good, the idea that a smell CIS white male would write such a novel might make some liberal white women blanch.

My novel is about a part-time stripper obsessed with owning a rural community newspaper in Virginia.

Or not. I just don’t know. I can’t help how the story I worked itself out of my emotional system. It has a lot of spicy scenes but it does, in fact, tell a compelling story about one woman’s obsession to own a small town community newspaper.

It tells a complete, compelling story. And, what’s more, it leaves you wanting more. It is written in such a way that the audience will want to know what happens next. I have a second novel in the series in the hopper — I just have to write the third draft. So it’s at least possible that I may have TWO novels done this year, ready to query.

But that’s a little bit down the road. I need to chill out for a little bit today then sit down and start writing again. It sucks so bad that I have to do all of this sober, and yet, that’s the reality I face.

Ugh.

Wish me luck.

Ethel Cain Is So Good

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

It took me a bit longer than I’d like to admit to realize that Ethel Cain is transgender. It’s difficult to realize this given how soulful and feminine her songs are. And, I have to admit also that because of how much I love Cain’s music that my views on the transgendered have changed.

Ethel Cain

Even though obviously she didn’t have to prove shit to anyone, her ability to sing the type of songs she does with such conviction definitely forces one to accept the validity of transgender people.

She’s probably one of my favorite artists out there at the moment. She’s so interesting and different that she really makes one not only enjoy her music, but think, too.

It is interesting that the pop press hasn’t really mentioned the transgender angle when it comes to her. Now, obviously, I have to acknowledge that I only learned about Cain through Tik-Tok and she’s really not gotten any mainstream press as far as I can tell.

Burn Hollywood Burn — Hollywood May Be About To Be Severely Disrupted By Sora

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

It seems as though the Petite Singularity is careening towards a reality just about when I predicted — at some point in late 2024, early 2025, just as political Fourth Turning is also taking place.

So, it’s possible, we’ll have something akin to a Perfect Storm of disruption in which we kind of lurch forward with a Vibe Shift where we come out the other side in a totally new political and technological era.

Or not, who knows.

But it does seem as though after about 20 years of being in one era — the post 911 era — that we’re about to enter a new, unknown era. It could be that a lot sooner than any of us could have possibly predicted, the movie Her will just be our reality.

We will have AGI and instead of there being *any* humans involved in the production of *any* entertainment, it will all just be AI generated. As an aspiring novelist on the cusp of wrapping up my first novel in a few months….I don’t quite know what to make of that.

The New Republic’s Post-Election Scenario 4: ‘Boring & Tolerable’

This is the fourth post-election scenario recently published in The New Republic and my response.
Trump wins the popular vote and the Electoral College.

If Trump wins the popular vote, he will also almost inevitably win the Electoral College, given how much it favors Republican candidates. If he wins this way, it will remove most discussion of whether his presidency is legitimate, when it clearly is based on the rules set forth by law and the Constitution. Certainly, his actions will be highly unpopular, but this outcome minimizes the antibodies raised against his administration. Certainly there will be protests, but as long as he doesn’t massacre protesters, it will be hard to convince anyone in Democratic leadership to reject the legitimacy of the federal government. Even most Democratic voters are likely to grudgingly admit the legitimacy of his second term, and this will dampen willingness to resist, even as Christian nationalism seeps in and democracy dies.

Perhaps the best modern example of a dictator riding out postelection protests is Alexander Lukashenko of Belarus, who arrested only protest leaders and just waited for the anger to subside. Trump would be wise to follow this model. Given Trump’s ties to Russia and respect for all things in the Russkiy Mir, he might be convinced to ignore his first instincts to crush protesters violently.

Trump will almost certainly do the things he promises regarding women’s rights, immigrants, LGBTQ people, the environment, and weaponizing the Department of Justice and FBI against Muslims, Dreamers, and anyone else against whom he’s promised vengeance. His government will absolutely spread this to all 50 states, but the perceived legitimacy of the regime, and the belief that “we’ll get ’em in 2028,” will prevent any real resistance. Republicans will pretend that free and fair elections in 2028 will absolutely happen, until they don’t. The government functionally becomes a competitive autocracy, much the same as Russia’s or Hungary’s. Elections are meaningless, other than serving as an anesthetic to public grievances.

For most people, life will be boring and tolerable. For the people targeted by the regime, it will not be easy to survive in the U.S. It will also lead to a wave of people (particularly trans individuals) attempting to flee to other countries. Corruption and graft will run rampant. The government will primarily serve the interests of Christian nationalists, and a tiered system of justice will become more and more apparent. Most people will decide that getting ahead in life (or keeping your head down) is better than asking pesky questions about where your transgender neighbor went. The result is a mix of the modern Hungarian political system, Russia-like apathy, and Nazi-esque zeal for creating a pure culture. As happened in all three of those countries, democracy dies with barely a whimper in this scenario.

By Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

It seems as though the author is really going out of their way to avoid addressing the obvious — if Trump wins re-election there is a really good chance we’re going to have a revolution / civil war.

I say this only because Trump is such a chaos agent that it’s difficult to imagine that he would be able to peacefully transition us into autocracy. He’s just too dumb and lazy — and impatient — and he’s far more likely to thrash around as tyrant than he is to allow history to work its course and have us drift peacefully into autocracy.

Any other Republican in Trump’s position would do exactly as propose in this scenario. But this is Trump we’re talking about — he’s a complete idiot.

Here are my own thoughts on this general scenario.

The issue is, the United States is at the moment a huge nation that has a strong democratic tradition and is pretty decentralized. Many — many — people have some pretty basic assumptions about their relationship to the government and if as we transition into an autocracy that were to change in a quick, dramatic fashion….holy shit.

It could be, however, that I’m over thinking things. The core group of people who would otherwise be the ideological tip of the spear against autocratic “Magdonia” will slip out of the country and move to the south of France where they will continue to the smug liberal celebrity podcast grift without blinking an eye. Those “Smartless” episodes aren’t going to produce themselves, you know.

So, at the moment, I think Trump wins re-election and that’s that — America begins its transition into an autocracy. And, in the end, it will be not Trump but his successor who is our “Augustus.”

In fact, I will be quite stunned if Blues can get their act together enough to really try to put a stake through the heart of the autocracy that is beginning to grow within the American political system. In short, we’re fucked.