Tag: Autocrats Never Lose

Why Do Some People Think The United States is a ‘Constitutional Republic?’

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

I see the term “constitutional republic” is trending again on Twitter so let’s talk about what that means in the context of the United States continuing to careen towards the existential choice of autocracy, civil war or military junta. Being so absolute in your belief that the United States is a “constitutional republic” is a tell.

What you’re really saying is you’re tired of the constant hand wringing on the part of Twitter liberals about the imminent demise of America’s democracy to the point that you want to nullify the debate altogether. You generally have a series of talking points that have been fed to you by Right wing podcasts to the point that you don’t even listen to anyone who disagrees with you.

The idea that the United States can be both a constitutional republic AND a democracy at the same time simply does not enter your mind. You dismiss all the democratic traditions and norms that have developed around our constitutional republic over the years and focus on the least democratic elements of it in hopes that you can get your dream of a white autocratic Christian ethnostate.

First of all — fuck you, you autocratic peice of shit.

Second, all this talk on the part of Reds about the United States being a constitutional republic is dangerous because Blues still believe we’re a democracy and, as such, when the final Red power grab happens and they finally extinguish American democracy, there is a greater-than-zero sum possibility of a National Divorce with Blue states being the ones serving the papers. This will, in turn cause a civil war that probably will not only bomb the United States into oblivion but start WW3 along the way, too.

I don’t think that will happen — Blues just don’t have it in them. I think the United States is going to become an illiberal democracy as Reds lean into the idea that our government is a constitutional republic not a democracy to the point that we’re not even a republic anymore, but rather an autocracy.

And that will be that. Wealthy Blues who still believe in American democracy will flee the country en masse, voting with their feet. And for all the glee that Reds will have for finally winning the idiotic argument about constitutional republic versus democracy, there is going to come a moment at some point in the future when they’re going to regret it.

It’s the nature of autocracy to go to extremes. Anyway, good luck, I guess. And fuck MAGA.

Here’s how a National Divorce — a civil war — might play out, staring in late 2024, early 2025.

So, here goes. Here’s how the individual states would handle A Second American Civil War, probably starting in late 2024 when it becomes clear that Reds are going to brazenly steal the election. I don’t think this is going to happen — I think we’re just going to slip peacefully into autocracy — but it is at least possible. I’m NOT going to do every state because, lulz, I don’t know the internal politics of each state well enough to do it right.

California

If Blues really decide to have a National Divorce, it will be California that probably is at the forefront serving the papers. And the key issue is — war aims. I think at first the war aims of the Blues will be to simply start, say, the United States of Canada. It will only be much later in any conflict that Blues get sucked into fighting the longer-term goal of maybe establishing the United States of North America. And that would happen because Trumplandia could possible begin a Final Solution for POC within its territory and, as such, the second phase of the civil war would be one of liberation. But that’s extremely speculative on my part.

Everything will hinge on what California wants to do. If it simply wants independence for itself, that’s a lot different war than if it joins with other Blue States to establish a new, larger state. But whatever happens once the 2ACW starts, California will be the “Arsenal of Democracy.” If they want to establish a Blue Union, then California would put itself on a war footing. It would call up a few million young men and women into a new Blue Army and away we go. A lot would depend on the state of the US Military, but the case could be made that it might implode, leaving the individual states with the ability to fend for themselves.

California would quickly secure Oregon and Washington then swoop through the plains states to link up with major Blue States in the old Upper Midwest. They would crash into Texas in the south and that would be a Battle Royale, though it’s possible because Texas is shifting blue that Texas might simply implode into an intra-state civil war and Blues could secure the state a lot easier than one might otherwise expect.

But the point is — as goes California, so goes the Blue Union cause.

Texas
Texas is a state that is really difficult to game out because while MAGA has turned into a Red stronghold, on the ground, the state is shifting Blue long term. As such, when our national politics finally collapses and we’re dealing with the existential it’s possible that Texas will simply implode. There could be a massive intra-state civil war that leaves it open to Blue Union forces from the West to swoop in and take it over. Or, at least, a lot of it over. But between when the civil war starts and when Blue Union troops come to the rescue, we could all be talking about the Siege of Austin as MAGA surrounds that particular blue dot in a purple state and want to wipe it off the face of the earth.

In a sense, Texas probably has the most to loose from a 2ACW. Texas would probably be the site of a huge amount of fighting as the difference between the Blue shift in the state’s practical politics slams up against the autocratic state government. Or, put another way, Texas is a lot less stable than you might think. It will likely be the source of a huge amount of domestic political refugees who will either endup in camps, or simply flee the state altogether, only to return when (hopefully) Blues win the civil war and there’s a Second Reconstruction.

Oregon
The thing about this state is it’s ripe for a huge clusterfuck. Of all the places in the Union in the lead up to any potential 2ACW, Oregon is the state I could most likely see some sort of “Troubles” taking place. There could be a pretty bloody Battle of Portland as all the crazed Far Right Militia’s swoop down on the city and decide to end the “Antifa Problem” once and for all. Then, of course, there’s pretty good chance that all of that will be for naught when California troops come from the south and consolidate Blue control over the state. Not that it won’t come at a very, very blood cost. But California is just too powerful not to be able to seize both Oregon and Washington in the early stages of any 2ACW. Even if California simply wants to go it alone, the mass chaos of Oregon might pull them into the state for some sort of peacekeeping mission.

The Plains States

Outside of Texas, the Plaines states may see their fates during a 2ACW largly out of their hands. They could shift from Blue to Red and back again as the two sides fight it out. They have small populations and economies and if California wants to link up with Blue States in the old Upper Midwest, then, they may see their extremely Red politics change in a rather abrupt, violent manner. These states are an example of why it would be so dumb for Red States to want a civil war — the values of small plains states are being forced upon Blue States and Blues aren’t really doing anything about it. But if there was a civil war, the Red Plains States would be forced to change their ways rather quickly.

The Old CSA (At least some of it.)
At first, a number of states of the old CSA would explode into joy if there was a 2ACW. States like Mississippi, Alabama and South Carolina would have you believe they are already half way out of the Union as it is because of the evil libtard “groomers” and, as such, if Blue States left the Union the populations of the old CSA states would be very, very happy. But. And this is a big but, as the war progressed and everything went to shit there would be a natural inclination on the part of white Christians in these states to make POC scape goats. There would be a rapid radicalization of the politics of these states to the point that something akin to a race war might break out. Or, if not that, then at least Nazi-style concentration camps would be established with the aim of enacting a Final Solution once and for all. This would, in turn freak the Blue States out to the point that even if they were free of the United States, they might rejoin the battle simply to stop the Final Solution from happening. This is all extremely speculative, of course, but I’m simply gaming out what already exists and then assume the worse.

Florida
I used to think that Florida would break up into about three states, given how diverse it is, but no more. I think it would be a fully autocratic state under DeSantis — even if he was POTUS at this point — and a lot of young men from Florida would face up against young men (and women) from California as the war progressed and got worse and worse for everyone concerned. The already fucked up politics of Florida would grow significantly more radical to the point that it was a one party fascist state.

Georgia
The thing about Georgia is Atlanta. If there was a 2ACW, then it’s possible that within the state it would be Atlanta versus everyone else. Atlanta would be a very Blue stronghold and the rest of the state would be so Red that it could all get very bloody. Of course, Blue forces from outside the state could swoop in at some point and help take stabilize the situation.

Virginia
As I’ve said the last time I wrote this scenario up, Virginia is two states that hate each other. Of all the states of the Union that might find destruction as part of a 2ACW, Virginia is at the top of the list — even more so than Texas. The state would collapse into coups and counter coups. The rural Red parts of the state would go all Pol Pot on the Blue parts of the state and there would be a lot of political scores settled by extremely radicalized rural Reds who wanted to make sure drag queens of the woke cancel culture mob could never teach their kids critical race theory again. I wish I was joking or exaggerating, but I’m not.

Heartland

The so-called “American Heartland” is where the worst fighting of any 2ACW would take place. States like Ohio and Indiana would be diehard supporters of Trumplandia and they just would not go down without a fight. It would be the type of fighting not seen since the end of WW2. And it would be happening in what was once the most stable country in the world. As I’ve mentioned, a lot would depend on what Blue war aims were. If they just wanted to start the USoC, then my dark fears probably won’t happen. But if, for some reason, those war aims change and the issue becomes bringing the US back together again (probably with Canada by this point) then, well, all bets are off. It would be a very bloody pitched battle.

New York City

A 2ACW might be a tale of two cities for NYC. On one hand, there’s a chance NYC could become something akin to a Free City and on the other it could get nuked by Trumplandia. Any 2ACW would probably see the city flooded with refugees, maybe even including yours truly. But one thing is for sure — the long term tension between Upstate New York and NYC will grow in the event of a 2ACW to the point that NYC may break away politically in some way. Update New York has a lot of room for political refugees and, as such, you could see the population of some of the Update New York cities might balloon as a result.

New England
I think in the even of a 2ACW that New England would be flooded with political refugees to an unprecedented extent. People fleeing all parts of Trumplandia would go to New England, potentially in hopes of getting across the border to Canada. Should the Blue Union unite with Canada, then, of course, that dynamic would change.

In closing, I would note three things. There’s not going to be a 2ACW if Blues don’t have any leadership. They currently have no effective leadership, so a lot of abrupt heroes would have to bubble up to the surface once it became clear that Blues had to leave the Union. Also, all of what I’ve described above has to be taken into the context of very real possibility that WMD would be used by both sides as the war progressed. And, remember, if the United States is too busy bombing itself into oblivion, then the prospect of a “Great Reset” in the guise of WW3 is a very, very real possibility.

Wargaming The Secession Crisis of 2024 – 2025

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

The one thing that I can’t figure out is what Blues will do between Election Day 2024 and Certification Day 2025 when it becomes clear that they face the existential choice of bending a knee to fascist MAGA autocracy or they simply leave the Union at the state level like what happened with slave states in 1860 – 1861.

Here are some reasons why we may have a civil war, starting around late 2024, early 2025.

  1. Republicans have come to glorify political violence
    Something you see a lot these days within the bullshit echo chamber of the MAGA New Right is the belief that because “liberals won’t leave us alone” that they are being “driven” to extremism. There’s a lot of leading not-so-vague talk as to what all this would ultimately mean. But it’s clear that for a number of “thought leaders” within the MAGA New Right that they have accepted that at some point in the future, they’re going to have to resort to violence to get what they want.
  2. Republicans no longer believe in democracy
    It is now clear that like any good fascists, Republicans no longer believe in democracy unless it’s for the specific purpose of gaining and keeping power. This view of the system they’re supposed to a part of leads them do extremely destabilizing things that help push the country to the brink.
  3. Trump 2024
    Just Trump being the 2024 nominee would, in itself, be enough to cause a civil war at some point in late 2024 – early 2025. He just has a special knack for “owning the libs” in such a way that if he stole in 2024 election and said the “quiet part outloud” that Blue States would grow so enraged that it would be they, not Red States, that left the Union and caused a Second Civil War. But Ron DeSantis is polling exceptionally well at the moment, so either Trump politically shivs him at some point, or he co-ops him, making him his VP, opening the door to DeSantis becoming America’s Putin at some point down the road a little bit.
  4. Steve K Bannon.
    Bannon and his toadies are actively working to destroy the framework that we use to administer free and fair elections. So, it’s very easy to imagine a situation where this gambit works in ways that Trump himself is too idiotic to pull off personally and it will be so egregious that, again, Blue States leave the Union and we have a Second American Civil War.
  5. Extreme negative polarization
    We’re in for a bump four or so years, no matter what, because negative polarization, on a systemic level, has reached a critical mass. When one of your political parties is fascist and would rather crash the global economy instead of even appear to work for the good of the nation — you got a problem.
  6. A lack of shared values
    As the big blow up on Twitter in the last 24 hours about a Stephen Colbert song and dance gag about getting vaccinated proves — we can’t even agree on what’s funny. A combination of this and negative polarization is leading to the United States being two nations, one Red, one Blue and when we get around to attempting to elect the next president, the system simply won’t be prepared for the passions it will stir up.
  7. A potentially historic miscalculation on the part of Republicans
    It’s possible that, much like European powers in the lead up to WW1, when the time comes and Republicans have a choice between peacefully transitioning us into autocracy or fucking with us all so we want to take up arms, they will choose the latter not because they have to, but because they want to. It’s possible that by the 2024 — 2025 period, Republicans will see a civil war as their only choice to consolidate power, even if it’s clear that they could get everything they ever wanted within the system they so obviously loath.
  8. SCOTUS sides with MAGA on the “Independent Legislature” concept.
    I really don’t know that much about this idea other than it would pretty much give MAGA free reign to ignore the popular vote and use its power over state legislatures to deny Democrats the White House for, well, forever. Once it dawns on Blues that they simply will never be allowed to take the White House again, that might be the final breaking point.

We’re too far out to game out what will happen, but there are a number of different options. One is, nothing happens other than a lot of wealthy liberals flee the country — maybe 1 million or more — and they all start doing their “Resistance” podcasts in the south of France.

At the moment, that seems the most logical outcome. American democracy ends not with a bang, but with a lot of one way tickets out of the country by people who are wearing MeUndies.

So, it seems safe to say that if there is any secessionist crisis in late 2024, early 2025, it’s going to be because there is a popular groundswell of support all across Blue America for that to happen. And if that happens, then….what? I don’t know. The farthest I can get in this wargaming is maybe a summit of Blue governors is held somewhere….and then….what? Is that when they agree to hold the Secessionist Conventions?

Things quickly grow murky. If Blue States begin to leave the Union, what does the outgoing Biden Administration do? What happens with the U.S. Military? What do they do in the face of such a crisis? Do they simply follow the orders of our new MAGA fascist overlords to crush the secession or do they step in and overthrow civilian rule long enough for the two sides to cool it?

I just don’t know.

But what I do know is something’s gotta give. We can’t keep punting these existential problems down the road anymore. MAGA is so politically ascendant that, by definition, if they have the power to turn us into an autocracy, they will. The only question is, will we endup being like Hungary and Turkey or will we be closer to Russia? Or, even, God forbid, Nazi Germany?

Again, I just don’t know.

And I think this could be one of those things where we won’t know until it happens one way or another. Remember — the first signs of violence will come from coups and counter coups in swing states that really don’t know if they’re a Blue or Red state to the point of leaving or staying in the Union.

For instance, states like Virginia are really two states — one Red, one Blue — fused together who hate each other. And if Virginia was forced to pick a side, it would collapse, probably with there be a coup, then counter coup as each side tied to force the state to go one way or another. Virginia would definitely be a flash point in any National Divorce. We’re talking Yugoslavia levels of clusterfuck.

If what happened in 2020 is any indication, the first sign that we would have that something was amiss would be on the local level. Instead of people who simply do their job as Americans and do the rather perfunctory duty of certifying the win of A Democrat, this doesn’t happen. In crucial voting districts all across swing states, Bannon’s “spiritual shock troops” either refuse to certify the win of A Democrat, or they go so far as to YOLO things and switch the win to Trump.

As this happens, the tension in United States escalates day by day. The very rallying cry of MAGA in 2020 — “Stop The Steal” will be adopted by the center-Left when it becomes clear that the MAGA New Right is hell bent on brazenly stealing the 2024 election in broad daylight.

But remember, the center-Left has a very different personality than the MAGA New Right. The center-Left, for all it’s problems with “cancel culture” and being “woke” is still actually connected to reality. So, there would be a struggle between the natural inclination of centrist Liberals to let the “process work” and Leftists who would want to burn everything to the ground given how corrupted everything had become.

All of this turmoil on the local level would find elections in crucial states thrown into the political realm where MAGA state legislatures and Secretary’s of State would begin to actively ensure that A Democrat is prevented from winning. Every day between Election Day 2024 and Certification Day 2025 things would grow more and more unstable in the United States as it became clear that Bannon’s long-planned “administrative coup” was actually going to work.

There would be mass confusion. Lots of lawsuits

And, remember, if Trump is involved, as all of this is going on, he would do everything in his personal power to rile up both sides. If his ongoing, progressive cognitive decline has gotten bad enough, he might even go transactional.

It would be around this point that I could see Blue governors begin to make serious plans to leave the Union. A lot would depend on what California was willing to do. But it would definitely make sense that California would be the first state to call a Secessionist Convention in preparation of leaving the Union if the 2024 election is, in fact, stolen.

But by some point between Thanksgiving and Christmas, you could see some sort of summit of Blue Governors where they debate their plans to leave the Union if the very thing that the MAGA New Right wants — to turn the United States into an autocracy — actually happens.

And as we approached Certification Day in January 2025, the last step in the crisis would happen. If you thought Certification Day 2021 was bad, just wait until Republicans are actively going over and above what they did then when it rolls around in 2025. So, the system will have been corrupted at both the local and state level. And then if that doesn’t work, Republicans will again try to throw the election into the House and Senate to buy time, if nothing else.

So, let me be clear — anyone who thinks we’re going to have some sort of MAGA New Right revolution a la The Turner Diaries — is a fool. Any Second American Civil War we have is probably going to be started by Blue States leaving the Union out of disgust that the fix is in.

Therefore, by the time Certification Day 2025 rolls around, it could very well be a foregone conclusion that we’re going to have a pretty organized civil war. Republicans have no shame and don’t apparently care about the consequences of their actions, so, lulz, we could find ourselves in the absolute worst of worlds because not only are states actively thinking about leaving the Union around this time, but the whole process of figuring out who is POTUS will be languishing in Congress. Republicans, because they are politically blood thirsty and will cheat, will win the power struggle, but there’s a chance states will begin leaving the Union.

It won’t be deranged, individual MAGA New Right blowing stuff up in some sort of rearguard action. It’s going to be a Blue Nation verses a Red Nation. A lot of the same things that happened in the First American Civil War will happen in the second. The U.S. Military will implode as people from Blue States leave it to establish a new Blue State military.

But one thing we have to expect in late 2024 to early 2025 is a mass migration of people across the country as people no longer feel safe living in an area of the country that doesn’t fit their politics. It could be rather frightening.

If it were, God forbid, to happen, I would guess that a Second American Civil War will begin between Certification Day 2025 and Inauguration Day 2025. In other words, as Trump is being sworn in, mass chaos will have erupted across the United States.

Once the hollowed out American military turns it attention to the Blue rebellion at the behest of Trump, it won’t be too long before WMD are sized and used by both sides. Not only would America bomb itself into oblivion with its eyes wide open, but it will be done in the context of WW3 definitely breaking out across the globe because the US will be too busy imploding to ensure the continuation of the post WW2 global order.

So, here goes. Here’s how the individual states would handle A Second American Civil War, probably starting in late 2024 when it becomes clear that Reds are going to brazenly steal the election. I don’t think this is going to happen — I think we’re just going to slip peacefully into autocracy — but it is at least possible. I’m NOT going to do every state because, lulz, I don’t know the internal politics of each state well enough to do it right.

California

If Blues really decide to have a National Divorce, it will be California that probably is at the forefront serving the papers. And the key issue is — war aims. I think at first the war aims of the Blues will be to simply start, say, the United States of Canada. It will only be much later in any conflict that Blues get sucked into fighting the longer-term goal of maybe establishing the United States of North America. And that would happen because Trumplandia could possible begin a Final Solution for POC within its territory and, as such, the second phase of the civil war would be one of liberation. But that’s extremely speculative on my part.

Everything will hinge on what California wants to do. If it simply wants independence for itself, that’s a lot different war than if it joins with other Blue States to establish a new, larger state. But whatever happens once the 2ACW starts, California will be the “Arsenal of Democracy.” If they want to establish a Blue Union, then California would put itself on a war footing. It would call up a few million young men and women into a new Blue Army and away we go. A lot would depend on the state of the US Military, but the case could be made that it might implode, leaving the individual states with the ability to fend for themselves.

California would quickly secure Oregon and Washington then swoop through the plains states to link up with major Blue States in the old Upper Midwest. They would crash into Texas in the south and that would be a Battle Royale, though it’s possible because Texas is shifting blue that Texas might simply implode into an intra-state civil war and Blues could secure the state a lot easier than one might otherwise expect.

But the point is — as goes California, so goes the Blue Union cause.

Texas
Texas is a state that is really difficult to game out because while MAGA has turned into a Red stronghold, on the ground, the state is shifting Blue long term. As such, when our national politics finally collapses and we’re dealing with the existential it’s possible that Texas will simply implode. There could be a massive intra-state civil war that leaves it open to Blue Union forces from the West to swoop in and take it over. Or, at least, a lot of it over. But between when the civil war starts and when Blue Union troops come to the rescue, we could all be talking about the Siege of Austin as MAGA surrounds that particular blue dot in a purple state and want to wipe it off the face of the earth.

In a sense, Texas probably has the most to loose from a 2ACW. Texas would probably be the site of a huge amount of fighting as the difference between the Blue shift in the state’s practical politics slams up against the autocratic state government. Or, put another way, Texas is a lot less stable than you might think. It will likely be the source of a huge amount of domestic political refugees who will either endup in camps, or simply flee the state altogether, only to return when (hopefully) Blues win the civil war and there’s a Second Reconstruction.

Oregon
The thing about this state is it’s ripe for a huge clusterfuck. Of all the places in the Union in the lead up to any potential 2ACW, Oregon is the state I could most likely see some sort of “Troubles” taking place. There could be a pretty bloody Battle of Portland as all the crazed Far Right Militia’s swoop down on the city and decide to end the “Antifa Problem” once and for all. Then, of course, there’s pretty good chance that all of that will be for naught when California troops come from the south and consolidate Blue control over the state. Not that it won’t come at a very, very blood cost. But California is just too powerful not to be able to seize both Oregon and Washington in the early stages of any 2ACW. Even if California simply wants to go it alone, the mass chaos of Oregon might pull them into the state for some sort of peacekeeping mission.

The Plains States

Outside of Texas, the Plaines states may see their fates during a 2ACW largly out of their hands. They could shift from Blue to Red and back again as the two sides fight it out. They have small populations and economies and if California wants to link up with Blue States in the old Upper Midwest, then, they may see their extremely Red politics change in a rather abrupt, violent manner. These states are an example of why it would be so dumb for Red States to want a civil war — the values of small plains states are being forced upon Blue States and Blues aren’t really doing anything about it. But if there was a civil war, the Red Plains States would be forced to change their ways rather quickly.

The Old CSA (At least some of it.)
At first, a number of states of the old CSA would explode into joy if there was a 2ACW. States like Mississippi, Alabama and South Carolina would have you believe they are already half way out of the Union as it is because of the evil libtard “groomers” and, as such, if Blue States left the Union the populations of the old CSA states would be very, very happy. But. And this is a big but, as the war progressed and everything went to shit there would be a natural inclination on the part of white Christians in these states to make POC scape goats. There would be a rapid radicalization of the politics of these states to the point that something akin to a race war might break out. Or, if not that, then at least Nazi-style concentration camps would be established with the aim of enacting a Final Solution once and for all. This would, in turn freak the Blue States out to the point that even if they were free of the United States, they might rejoin the battle simply to stop the Final Solution from happening. This is all extremely speculative, of course, but I’m simply gaming out what already exists and then assume the worse.

Florida
I used to think that Florida would break up into about three states, given how diverse it is, but no more. I think it would be a fully autocratic state under DeSantis — even if he was POTUS at this point — and a lot of young men from Florida would face up against young men (and women) from California as the war progressed and got worse and worse for everyone concerned. The already fucked up politics of Florida would grow significantly more radical to the point that it was a one party fascist state.

Georgia
The thing about Georgia is Atlanta. If there was a 2ACW, then it’s possible that within the state it would be Atlanta versus everyone else. Atlanta would be a very Blue stronghold and the rest of the state would be so Red that it could all get very bloody. Of course, Blue forces from outside the state could swoop in at some point and help take stabilize the situation.

Virginia
As I’ve said the last time I wrote this scenario up, Virginia is two states that hate each other. Of all the states of the Union that might find destruction as part of a 2ACW, Virginia is at the top of the list — even more so than Texas. The state would collapse into coups and counter coups. The rural Red parts of the state would go all Pol Pot on the Blue parts of the state and there would be a lot of political scores settled by extremely radicalized rural Reds who wanted to make sure drag queens of the woke cancel culture mob could never teach their kids critical race theory again. I wish I was joking or exaggerating, but I’m not.

Heartland

The so-called “American Heartland” is where the worst fighting of any 2ACW would take place. States like Ohio and Indiana would be diehard supporters of Trumplandia and they just would not go down without a fight. It would be the type of fighting not seen since the end of WW2. And it would be happening in what was once the most stable country in the world. As I’ve mentioned, a lot would depend on what Blue war aims were. If they just wanted to start the USoC, then my dark fears probably won’t happen. But if, for some reason, those war aims change and the issue becomes bringing the US back together again (probably with Canada by this point) then, well, all bets are off. It would be a very bloody pitched battle.

New York City

A 2ACW might be a tale of two cities for NYC. On one hand, there’s a chance NYC could become something akin to a Free City and on the other it could get nuked by Trumplandia. Any 2ACW would probably see the city flooded with refugees, maybe even including yours truly. But one thing is for sure — the long term tension between Upstate New York and NYC will grow in the event of a 2ACW to the point that NYC may break away politically in some way. Update New York has a lot of room for political refugees and, as such, you could see the population of some of the Update New York cities might balloon as a result.

New England
I think in the even of a 2ACW that New England would be flooded with political refugees to an unprecedented extent. People fleeing all parts of Trumplandia would go to New England, potentially in hopes of getting across the border to Canada. Should the Blue Union unite with Canada, then, of course, that dynamic would change.

In closing, I would note three things. There’s not going to be a 2ACW if Blues don’t have any leadership. They currently have no effective leadership, so a lot of abrupt heroes would have to bubble up to the surface once it became clear that Blues had to leave the Union. Also, all of what I’ve described above has to be taken into the context of very real possibility that WMD would be used by both sides as the war progressed. And, remember, if the United States is too busy bombing itself into oblivion, then the prospect of a “Great Reset” in the guise of WW3 is a very, very real possibility.

A World Turned Upside Down

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

One of the more sensitive issues in society today is LGBTQ rights. It’s so sensitive that it’s difficult to even address it without either people yelling at each other or someone getting “canceled” before it’s all over with.

And, yet, it’s definitely something that is tearing the country apart in its own way because the Blues have a very strict orthodoxy about the subject that really alienates people who might otherwise join forces with them to keep our fragile democracy alive.

The issue of LGBTQ rights — and the topsy-turvy world of center-Left expectations about gender — is something that Reds love, love, love to wallow in because it helps push people who might otherwise support democracy into their arms and, but extension, the arms of fascism.

It’s gotten to the point where my center-Right relatives have the notion that the “woke cancel culture mob” wants to “turn everyone gay” at the VERY forefront of their mind. That’s all they want to talk about. It’s their go-to talking point, especially when they might be losing an argument about something else. And Traditionalist conservatives are so all-in with the anti-gay orthodoxy of Reds that they’ve completely bought into the notion that the “woke cancel culture mob” is “grooming” little kids whenever it’s not engaging in infanticide.

The whole thing is loopy and corrosive to the point that it’s like nations of the mind that Blues and Reds live in are totally different. And, soon enough, it could be that they live in two different political nations as well. Only time will tell. We may implode into a MAGA Republican fascist state instead, who knows at the moment.

The issue of gay rights is one of a number of hot button topics — abortion, global climate change and gun control to name a few others — that are now so totally loaded that’s its impossible to have any type of conversation about them with someone you disagree with. The two sides have very strict orthodoxies and that’s that. Neither side will compromise, neither side will budge or even listen to what the other has to say.

And it’s things like that which makes me think we’re careening towards a very dark future — one of autocracy, civil war or military junta. Something’s gotta give. We can’t keep this up. The two sides are too far apart and our politics no longer function.

Either we become all Red (autocracy) or Blues tell Reds to fuck off and leave the Union on the state level. What the U.S. Military will do is very much up in the air and there is at least a chance that we may endup with a military junta for a while instead of the other two choices.

Anyway, get out of the country if you can. Things are dark and getting darker by the moment.

Imagining The Very American Autocracy of MTG’s ‘Velvet Fist’

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

I have long mulled the idea that someone like Ivanka or Lara Trump might somehow find themselves as POTUS, only to be a figure head for their deranged, autocratic veep like Mike Pompeo or Josh Hawley. This would be par for the course for an autocracy because it would give the autocrat the ability to consolidate power and serve, in real terms, a minimum of around 16 years before they had to either become Speaker or change the Constitution to serve longer.

So I sat up and took notice when I learned that everyone’s deranged, power hungry MAGA idiot, Marjorie Taylor Greene, is growing in esteem in Trump’s eyes to the point that he’s even thinking of naming her his veep. This, of course, would put her in the driver’s seat to become POTUS.

I honestly don’t know enough about MTG to know if she would be nothing more of a figure head as she would be in the Velvet Fist scenario or if she has the wearwithal actually be an autocrat unto herself. It’s very curious. In one way, MTG is very Trump-like and would probably not be centered enough to consolidate power like a true autocrat, but at the same time, from what I can tell, she wants to be a power player and so she might be able to pull it off.

The idea of MTG being America’s first Very American Autocrat is loony, but I guess in it’s own way it’s better than having an autocrat named JOSH of all things. But there remains the issue of how politically blood thirsty the fight to be Trump’s autocratic successor is going to be when that moment comes. I just don’t know if MTG is up to that type of fight.

Jesus Christ, Is America In Fucking Political Denial

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

The Traditionalist conservatives I know love Trump because he’s a fighter. They feel “oppressed” because the “woke cancel culture mob” wants to “groom” little kids and otherwise turn everyone gay.

They feel they risk having their life ruined — or “canceled” if they should happen to do or say something that doesn’t follow the “woke” media agenda. They think all their favorite stars are having their lives ruined by the “woke mob.”

They are aghast at the potency of the transgender movement — especially when children are involved — and the feel the “what are your pronouns” issue to be as alarming as it is ridiculous.

Throw in a heaping helping of negative polarization and you have a recipe for disaster in the guise of the United States turning into an autocratic white Christian ethostate pretty much the next time Republicans have it in their power to do so.

In short, the United States is fucked.

The center-Left is too divided, too wrapped up in quibbling about how many genders can dance on the head of a pin, to do anything preemptively about the dangers we face. And, really, at the moment, I just don’t see there being a National Divorce.

Blues will ultimately bend a knee to fascism and those who have the means will vote with their feet by leaving the country. That, at the moment, seems to be our immutable fate. The only reason why I don’t absolutely believe this is I can’t predict the future and, as such, we might either have a civil war or some sort of military junta.

And, yet, the fix is in for Something Bad to happen. We’re past the event horizon for “the Fourth Turning” if you want to invoke that astrology for dudes brand.

In the end, I think we’re just going to shrug and give up our American democratic birthright because we don’t realize the true implications of becoming a MAGA-themed autocracy. Good luck.

The Abstract Fear of Traditionalist Conservatives of Being ‘Canceled’ By The ‘Woke Cancel Culture Mob’ is Destroying American Democracy

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

What bothers me the most about the concept of the “woke cancel culture mob” “canceling” someone is I honestly don’t really know what being “woke” is and I don’t know what it means, in real terms, to be “canceled.”

I hate the idea that two abstract concepts are at the forefront of the minds of Traditionalists, who are bedrock of any traditional, stable democracy. When you lose Traditionalists, you endup with Good Germans who keep their head down in a fascist autocratic state.

Of course, some of the abstract nature of being “woke” and the power of being “canceled” is by design. The Fox News – Right wing podcast axis goes out of its way to bludgeon Traditionalists with these two concepts in such a way that they live in abject fear of having their lives ruined simply because they’re conservative.

If we all know what “woke” and “canceled” meant, if we could agree on a meaning, then our fears wouldn’t be abstract and, as such, not nearly as scary. But it serves the purposes of the fucking autocratic fascist MAGA Republicans to keep these terms abstract, so, lulz.

Just as MAGA Republicans get frustrated over people like me saying they’re a “threat to democracy” to the point that they don’t believe in democracy anymore, I’m so angry over the rise of fascist MAGA Republican autocracy that I’m really beginning to find the idea — on paper — of a National Divorce rather appealing.

But for the whole bombing ourselves into the Stone Age element of it all – sorting out what constitutes a Blue or Red state alone will be very, very violent — I would be all for it.

Wait, what?

Give me a prosperous, secular Blue Union anyday over an inward looking autocratic fascist MAGA State that was very undemocratic in nature.

I don’t think it will come to that, however. The center-Left just doesn’t have it in them. In the end, wealthy liberals will flee the country — vote with their feet –and get all their My Undies that they hear advertised on Crooked Media podcasts shipped to them in the south of France.

My Personal Case For A ‘National Divorce’

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

The more I think about it, the more I believe this Union can’t be saved. I hate conflict, hate violence and consider myself a man of peace, a man of ideas. And, yet, I grow more and more alarmed as a center-Left person about the raise of autocratic MAGA Republican fascism in the United States.

So, on paper, there is a very strong case for Blues to serve Reds papers on a National Divorce at some point in late 2024, early 2025 when it becomes clear that either Reds are going to steal that election or they’ve won it fair and square and their incoming agenda is simply too radical for Blues to remain in the Union.

But all of this is on paper. I would far rather at least try to figure out some way to punt the ascendant nature of autocratic MAGA fascism down the road a few more election cycles. Yet, I fear late 2024, early 2025 is going to be it — the Fourth Turning, if you’re into that particular astrology for dudes bullshit.

It just seems — on paper, that if Reds finally catch the car, that maybe Blue States should collectively agree to bounce. If Reds want to establish a white Christian ethnostate so bad, then have at it — but without the tax base associated with Blue States.

We may all be antifa one day.

There are so very many problems with this idea.

I just can’t imagine a scenario where Reds would let Blues leave the Union without a Second American Civil War. What’s more, if the United States buckles, then the post-WW2 liberal order will, too, and WW3 will break out. There are all sorts of nightmare scenarios you could think up at this point, including the DPRK throwing a few H-bombs towards the United States while we were preoccupied with bombing ourselves into the Stone Age.

But something’s gotta give. America is going to reach a point between Election Day 2024 and Certification Day 2025 when it becomes clear that the jig is up. We are either going to be all-Red (autocracy) or split into two nations that hate each other. Or, I supposed, some sort of murky middle ground could occur whereby the U.S. Military steps in and keeps the country together until, maybe, passions subside a little bit.

All of this is still too far out, I can’t game out any scenarios that make much sense at the moment. The first big milestone will be the 2022 elections and when Trump announces for 2024. Those two events will definitely lurch us closer — one way or another — towards the Certification Crisis of 2024 – 2025.

But I’m always wrong. Maybe somehow we’ll sort things out and my dark, dystopian fears of autocracy, civil war or military junta will just be hysterical. And, yet, to be a Republican in good standing at the moment means to be an autocratic fascist, so lulz.

Should Bill Murray Be Canceled?

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

I really like Bill Murray — as do a lot of other Americans — and the idea that we would “cancel” a national treasure like Murray is something I struggle with. The reason is, we all have a dark side, we have all “fallen short of the glory that is Christ,” as The Bible teaches us.

And yet.

We are in a new age where seemingly no one is safe from the wrath of the “woke cancel culture mob.” And there have been some pretty disturbing alligations lodged against Murray over the years, from his ex-wife accusing him of abuse to whatever it was that caused him to fight with Lucy Liu on the set of Charlie’s Angels.

I suppose what bothers me, though, is it’s all kind of murky. So he problematic, it’s not like he married his step daughter, you know? I think the question at the moment is if the current trouble he finds himself in is a mortal blow to his career, or if it will just blow over and be forgotten.

Some of all of this is we don’t even really know what being “canceled” means in the first place. All your typical conservative knows is they fear they risk, an abstract way, their entire life being ruined simply for being conservative. Even though, really, the whole thing is generated by the hot air of Fox News and Right wing podcasts than anything else.

I mean, if you can’t tell me what you’re afraid of, aren’t you really telling me that you just don’t like, in general, the mentality of center-Left people who you don’t understand don’t really want to? You want things to go back to the way they used to be when you were young, only with wifi and Netflix.

But the key thing to remember is many, many of the people who are allegedly “canceled” either haven’t been canceled in real terms — Dave Chappelle, Louis CK — or what they did was REALLY BAD and they deserved it (name any number of cretens who were exposed because of the #MeToo movement.)

My gut tells me that Murray is down but not out. He’s always been a unique fixture in American pop culture and I just can’t see him being totally excised from American life because of what’s going on. At least, I hope not?

Red October: Of Wokeness & The Power Of The Marketplace of Ideas

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

All the Traditionalist conservatives in my family want autocracy. They don’t come out and say this, probably because they don’t really think in those terms, but that’s what they want. They want a white Christian ethnostate so they can relax, knowing at last, that they don’t risk being “canceled” by the “woke cancel culture mob.” If they can stop libtards from “grooming” children and demanding everyone be gay, all the better.

The interesting thing about all of this is they stress that they “just want to be left” alone while also saying how much they support the marketplace. There is the marketplace of ideas, you know, and that’s where things get interesting in regards to all this abstract fear about the “woke cancel culture mob” ruining their lives simply because they’re conservative.

A lot is being conflated about “wokeness” because it serves the purposes of Fox News and all those myriad of Right wing podcasts that breathlessly give their listens the latest talking points to “own” libs like me. What is “wokeness” but the marketplace of ideas working quite effectively to decide what is, and isn’t acceptable behavior?

But that’s now how my Traditionalist relatives see things. They conflate the growing hard power of MAGA Republicans with the nebulous soft power of the “woke cancel culture mob.” They are so overcome with the abstract fear that they will be “persecuted” simply because their views don’t follow the conventional wisdom media narrative that they are gleefully willing to give up that most basic of American rights — democracy. They don’t like how things are changing and they want to go back to when there was no doubt that white Christians were on top.

They don’t know exactly what the problem is, but they do know that they are enraged by the “crisis at The Border,” how powerful the “gay agenda” is and how it seems no one plays by the rules anymore and everyone expects a handout, to boot.

All of this is very, very murky because there are a lot of moving parts to all of this. Not only have there been a lot of people who have been justifiably “canceled” for doing some pretty shitty things — especially to women — but there have been other, Hollywood types, who have been “canceled” simply because they have been outspoken conservatives.

I think the thing that really bothers one of my Traditionalist conservative relatives is the corporate “sensitivity training” that they apparently have to undergo on occasion. They blame Biden for how much they hate this, even though, lulz, sensitivity training is the free market doing it’s thing. A private company decided that it was in its best fiscal interests to make sure its employees were aware of the changing sensitivities of the modern age.

If we are honest with each other as a nation, I think we would all come to the painful conclusion that we need a National Divorce. I don’t want one, and definitely don’t want a civil war that would result, but I also know I don’t want to live in a fascist MAGA Republican autocracy. As such, should the time come that Blues face a choice of autocracy or National Divorce, I don’t think the latter should be entirely off the table. It’s definitely something to think about seriously in late 2024, early 2025 when it becomes clear that Republicans are going to strangle what’s left of American democracy with a gleeful, deranged look in their collective eyes.

I do not think it will come to that, however. I don’t think there will ever be a moment — even if it’s absolutely clear that MAGA is going to turn us into a Russian-style autocracy — when Blues will be willing to put on their big boy pants and honestly think about secession. We just don’t have it in us. We don’t have any leadership and what the moment it’s clear as to what’s going to happen in the United States in 2025, the liberal intelligentsia is going to be the first out the door for Canada and beyond.

It happened when the Nazis took over Germany and it’s going to happen with the United States.

The only reason why it’s not a foregone conclusion is it hasn’t happened yet. There are too many variables that I can’t game out. A lot of unexpected things could happen that may change the context — or even punt the problem down the road a little bit. We were very, very lucky in 2020 because of a combination of the political consequences of the pandemic and Trump being a lazy moron who was too stupid to pull basic autocrat plays.

A prime example of what I’m talking about.

So, I suppose, it’s possible we might be lucky again.

But I doubt it. I can’t predict the future — no one can — but my mind keeps coming back to how all the macro metrics point to something pretty dramatic happening in the United States in late 2024, early 2025. What that might be — autocracy, civil war or military junta — I just don’t know at the moment.

Regardless, the point is — a lot of what is considered “wokeness” is simply a concrete manifestation of how Blue states and Red states interpret the American experience so differently as to be two different nations, at least in their minds.

The great irony is, of course, that the process of having a National Divorce — civil war — would be so horrific that it would burn off “wokeness” by the time it was all over. People on both the Right and the Left would probably appreciate what’s really important in life and neither side would have to fear being “canceled.”

A few million people might have done in order for us to gain that “freedom,” but lulz.

Now, before I end this rant, let me be absolutely clear — I’m probably a prime candidate to be “canceled” if my dream of selling my first novel becomes a reality and it’s as big a success as I hope. I’m a very flawed person who has done things that probably wouldn’t pass muster with the “woke cancel culture mob.” Despite that, I sure would rather live in a free Blue Union and the white Christian ethnostate of Trumplandia.

Was 2020 America’s Last Free And Fair Election?

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

Occasionally, I’ll be reminded of the wistful idea about relationships — that when you have sex with someone for the last time, you don’t know what you’re doing. That that will be the last time you have sex with them.

MAGA Republicans are politically ascendant. Now what.

I think about this because we may look back on the 2020 election as America’s last free and fair election. I suppose it’s possible that the 2022 midterms may be the REAL last free and fair election, but we haven’t had it yet, so I just don’t know for sure.

I say this because it’s self-evident that fascism in popular in the United States and that MAGA Republicanism is ascendant. And it definitely seems — at the moment — that Republicans are going to at least take the House, if not the Senate, too in a few weeks.

Congressional Republicans are so fucking fascist, so fucking radical, that them taking control of any house of Congress will, in effect, be a severe, reactionary revolution. They have a singular focus — to destroy the Biden Administration and, if necessary, to crash the global economy if they can’t gut the social safety net under his watch.

Republicans are notorious for causing a problem then blaming Democrats for it, who then have to turn around and solve the very problem that Republicans caused in the first place.

There are many, many metrics to point to that indicate 2024 is going to be put up or shut up time for Blue States. Everything from a general corruption of the administration of elections to the “independent legislature ” concept could very well force Blues to make the existential choice of “bending a knee” to fascist MAGA autocracy or, well, leaving the Union.

At the moment, I just don’t think Blues have it in them to demand a National Divorce. Wealthy liberals will just flee the country — vote with their feet — and all my favorite podcasts will be recorded in the south of France. But there does remain a greater-than-zero chance that there could very well be a Second American Civil War. It’s just too far out still to game out.

It could go either way. And, of course, there is the military junta option.

But I think any sort of military junta would be a frantic last gasp before the country collapsed. Or, I suppose it’s possible that the U.S. Military might become completely unmoored from both Red and Blue. That would be interesting.

I love a good scenario, so if you want my hot take on how the Secessionist Crisis of 2024 – 2025 would go down, it would be something like this. The first indication that things were going to be different would be that local MAGA controlled election boards in swing states would simply not do their job. They would balk at certifying the election of the 2024 Democratic presidential candidate.

The reason why this is so important to what happens next is would introduce a level of uncertainty into the process that could easily be exploited by because so much of the Federal bench is now made up of young MAGA hacks who will do the bidding of MAGA when the time comes. I’m well aware that this did NOT happen in 2020….but we were very lucky. It’s very possible that the process of the corruption of the administration of elections will be much farther along by 2024 and, I don’t know, the election might be closer.

Each election has a personality of its own, if you will.

Once MAGA controlled election boards simply refuse to do their jobs because they don’t like the result, then one of the great ironies of the modern age will happen — suddenly, it will be Blues who will be screaming at the top of their lungs about “Stop The Steal.”

Let me pause here to note that America is tearing itself apart in ways big and small to the point that I just don’t see us making through the passions of another presidential cycle without Something Bad happening. That Somethng Bad could be, as I mentioned, autocracy, civil war or military junta.

But back to the scenario.

Once election boards in swing states balk at doing their jobs, the clock will begin to tick as to what the fuck is going to happen. And if SCOTUS validates the “independent legislature” concept this would be the point where everything would go off the rails. MAGA controlled legislatures in swing states could simply take control of the administration of elections that that point and pretty much just do whatever the fuck they wanted.

This is the point when we would reach a crisis. Just a few days after Election Day 2024, there would begin to be talk amongst a lot of Twitter liberals about either simply voting with their feet and leaving the country for good or even giving up on trying to “Stop The Steal” and having states call up Secessionist Conventions to give at least a thin cover of legality to trying to leave the Union.

Now, remember, all of this would be happening in the context of an old as hell POTUS who could very well just drop dead in the middle of this crisis, making an already very bad situation even worse.

The key element as to any Secessionist Crisis would be, of course, California and maybe New York City. If there was such popular outrage in Blue states that the 2024 election was going to be stolen in broad daylight that election officials in the deep blue states simply could not ignore the demand to leave the Union, then well, we’re going to show.

Meanwhile, NYC would be important because that’s where Trump Tower, Fox News, the Wall Street Journal and the New York Post are physically located. If hordes of enraged New Yorkers sacked those places in the middle of any Certification Crisis, then, well, that would be very bad as to the continued unity of the country.

If we turned on CNN in late 2024 and saw Trump Tower in New York City in flames, then, well, that would probably prompt retaliation on the part of Reds across the country. Which would would cause a cascading series of events that would definitely turn a Certification Crisis in to a Secessionist Crisis.

And all of this would be happening in the context of Trump freaking the fuck out and demanding blood. He might go so totally nuts that he, unto himself, could push the country into not just “chaos” but an actual civil war with two governments fighting it out.

There is just so much about this scenario that I can’t game out. I’m not an expert and I can’t predict the future. So, take that into consideration.

At this point, all eyes would be on California. Either they maybe call up a Secessionist Convention just to placate enraged liberals in the state or they maybe call some sort of emergency summit of Blue governors to discuss what happens next.

Then we bump up against two crucial questions. What about “purple” states and what happens with the U.S Military?

There are a number of states, like Virginia, which are purple. Virginia, specifically, is actually two states who fucking hate each other fused together because of history and geography. So this is when something that would make a lot of people sit up and take notice would happen — not only would there potentially be coups and counter coups in state houses across the country, many, many Reds would leave Blue states and Blues would leave Red states.

All this happening virtually overnight would put ever-more pressure on the Federal government. It would begin to dawn on people that the United States, the richest most stable country in the world was about to collapse into not just “rolling political violence” like The Troubles in Northern Ireland but an honest to God civil war like the one that happened in 1861 – 1865.

This brings us to the other issue — what the fuck would the U.S. Military do?

Well, I simply can’t game this out. There is a spectrum of things the U.S. Military might end up doing. Everything from simply collapsing as the Red enlisted go one way while the Blue officer corp goes another way to some sort of martial law / military junta happening. (If you really wanted to be paranoid, the fact that bonkers Gen. Mike Flynn’s brother is in control of the U.S. Pacific Command might suddenly become VERY IMPORTANT at this point.)

I really can’t game out what happens now. Either Blue States leave the Union en mass, establish their own Federal government and military or the U.S. Military steps in and we have a military junta for a little while until passions die down.

Or Blue States could choke and we slide into autocracy, with millions of wealth Blues leaving the country for good.

So, here goes. Here’s how the individual states would handle A Second American Civil War, probably starting in late 2024 when it becomes clear that Reds are going to brazenly steal the election. I don’t think this is going to happen — I think we’re just going to slip peacefully into autocracy — but it is at least possible. I’m NOT going to do every state because, lulz, I don’t know the internal politics of each state well enough to do it right.

California

If Blues really decide to have a National Divorce, it will be California that probably is at the forefront serving the papers. And the key issue is — war aims. I think at first the war aims of the Blues will be to simply start, say, the United States of Canada. It will only be much later in any conflict that Blues get sucked into fighting the longer-term goal of maybe establishing the United States of North America. And that would happen because Trumplandia could possible begin a Final Solution for POC within its territory and, as such, the second phase of the civil war would be one of liberation. But that’s extremely speculative on my part.

Everything will hinge on what California wants to do. If it simply wants independence for itself, that’s a lot different war than if it joins with other Blue States to establish a new, larger state. But whatever happens once the 2ACW starts, California will be the “Arsenal of Democracy.” If they want to establish a Blue Union, then California would put itself on a war footing. It would call up a few million young men and women into a new Blue Army and away we go. A lot would depend on the state of the US Military, but the case could be made that it might implode, leaving the individual states with the ability to fend for themselves.

California would quickly secure Oregon and Washington then swoop through the plains states to link up with major Blue States in the old Upper Midwest. They would crash into Texas in the south and that would be a Battle Royale, though it’s possible because Texas is shifting blue that Texas might simply implode into an intra-state civil war and Blues could secure the state a lot easier than one might otherwise expect.

But the point is — as goes California, so goes the Blue Union cause.

Texas
Texas is a state that is really difficult to game out because while MAGA has turned into a Red stronghold, on the ground, the state is shifting Blue long term. As such, when our national politics finally collapses and we’re dealing with the existential it’s possible that Texas will simply implode. There could be a massive intra-state civil war that leaves it open to Blue Union forces from the West to swoop in and take it over. Or, at least, a lot of it over. But between when the civil war starts and when Blue Union troops come to the rescue, we could all be talking about the Siege of Austin as MAGA surrounds that particular blue dot in a purple state and want to wipe it off the face of the earth.

In a sense, Texas probably has the most to loose from a 2ACW. Texas would probably be the site of a huge amount of fighting as the difference between the Blue shift in the state’s practical politics slams up against the autocratic state government. Or, put another way, Texas is a lot less stable than you might think. It will likely be the source of a huge amount of domestic political refugees who will either endup in camps, or simply flee the state altogether, only to return when (hopefully) Blues win the civil war and there’s a Second Reconstruction.

Oregon
The thing about this state is it’s ripe for a huge clusterfuck. Of all the places in the Union in the lead up to any potential 2ACW, Oregon is the state I could most likely see some sort of “Troubles” taking place. There could be a pretty bloody Battle of Portland as all the crazed Far Right Militia’s swoop down on the city and decide to end the “Antifa Problem” once and for all. Then, of course, there’s pretty good chance that all of that will be for naught when California troops come from the south and consolidate Blue control over the state. Not that it won’t come at a very, very blood cost. But California is just too powerful not to be able to seize both Oregon and Washington in the early stages of any 2ACW. Even if California simply wants to go it alone, the mass chaos of Oregon might pull them into the state for some sort of peacekeeping mission.

The Plains States

Outside of Texas, the Plaines states may see their fates during a 2ACW largly out of their hands. They could shift from Blue to Red and back again as the two sides fight it out. They have small populations and economies and if California wants to link up with Blue States in the old Upper Midwest, then, they may see their extremely Red politics change in a rather abrupt, violent manner. These states are an example of why it would be so dumb for Red States to want a civil war — the values of small plains states are being forced upon Blue States and Blues aren’t really doing anything about it. But if there was a civil war, the Red Plains States would be forced to change their ways rather quickly.

The Old CSA (At least some of it.)
At first, a number of states of the old CSA would explode into joy if there was a 2ACW. States like Mississippi, Alabama and South Carolina would have you believe they are already half way out of the Union as it is because of the evil libtard “groomers” and, as such, if Blue States left the Union the populations of the old CSA states would be very, very happy. But. And this is a big but, as the war progressed and everything went to shit there would be a natural inclination on the part of white Christians in these states to make POC scape goats. There would be a rapid radicalization of the politics of these states to the point that something akin to a race war might break out. Or, if not that, then at least Nazi-style concentration camps would be established with the aim of enacting a Final Solution once and for all. This would, in turn freak the Blue States out to the point that even if they were free of the United States, they might rejoin the battle simply to stop the Final Solution from happening. This is all extremely speculative, of course, but I’m simply gaming out what already exists and then assume the worse.

Florida
I used to think that Florida would break up into about three states, given how diverse it is, but no more. I think it would be a fully autocratic state under DeSantis — even if he was POTUS at this point — and a lot of young men from Florida would face up against young men (and women) from California as the war progressed and got worse and worse for everyone concerned. The already fucked up politics of Florida would grow significantly more radical to the point that it was a one party fascist state.

Georgia
The thing about Georgia is Atlanta. If there was a 2ACW, then it’s possible that within the state it would be Atlanta versus everyone else. Atlanta would be a very Blue stronghold and the rest of the state would be so Red that it could all get very bloody. Of course, Blue forces from outside the state could swoop in at some point and help take stabilize the situation.

Virginia
As I’ve said the last time I wrote this scenario up, Virginia is two states that hate each other. Of all the states of the Union that might find destruction as part of a 2ACW, Virginia is at the top of the list — even more so than Texas. The state would collapse into coups and counter coups. The rural Red parts of the state would go all Pol Pot on the Blue parts of the state and there would be a lot of political scores settled by extremely radicalized rural Reds who wanted to make sure drag queens of the woke cancel culture mob could never teach their kids critical race theory again. I wish I was joking or exaggerating, but I’m not.

Heartland

The so-called “American Heartland” is where the worst fighting of any 2ACW would take place. States like Ohio and Indiana would be diehard supporters of Trumplandia and they just would not go down without a fight. It would be the type of fighting not seen since the end of WW2. And it would be happening in what was once the most stable country in the world. As I’ve mentioned, a lot would depend on what Blue war aims were. If they just wanted to start the USoC, then my dark fears probably won’t happen. But if, for some reason, those war aims change and the issue becomes bringing the US back together again (probably with Canada by this point) then, well, all bets are off. It would be a very bloody pitched battle.

New York City

A 2ACW might be a tale of two cities for NYC. On one hand, there’s a chance NYC could become something akin to a Free City and on the other it could get nuked by Trumplandia. Any 2ACW would probably see the city flooded with refugees, maybe even including yours truly. But one thing is for sure — the long term tension between Upstate New York and NYC will grow in the event of a 2ACW to the point that NYC may break away politically in some way. Update New York has a lot of room for political refugees and, as such, you could see the population of some of the Update New York cities might balloon as a result.

New England
I think in the even of a 2ACW that New England would be flooded with political refugees to an unprecedented extent. People fleeing all parts of Trumplandia would go to New England, potentially in hopes of getting across the border to Canada. Should the Blue Union unite with Canada, then, of course, that dynamic would change.

In closing, I would note three things. There’s not going to be a 2ACW if Blues don’t have any leadership. They currently have no effective leadership, so a lot of abrupt heroes would have to bubble up to the surface once it became clear that Blues had to leave the Union. Also, all of what I’ve described above has to be taken into the context of very real possibility that WMD would be used by both sides as the war progressed. And, remember, if the United States is too busy bombing itself into oblivion, then the prospect of a “Great Reset” in the guise of WW3 is a very, very real possibility.