Tag: Autocrats Never Lose

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

We know that Cassidy Hutchinson’s testimony has MAGA Republicans alarmed because they are using the current controversy over her claim that someone told her that Trump attacked member of his Secret Service detail to dismiss EVERYTHING she said.

It was inevitable that something she said would be quibbled with. But, here we are. It’s all so depressing. While 60% of the electorate will continue to be appalled by Trump, that core 40% of the electorate will say everything she sais was “bogus” because of the Secret Service issue.

But, wait, it gets worse.

The Angry White People I’m related to — who I love dearly — have already said they “like Trump’s policies they just don’t like Trump.” So, even if we were magically able to stick a stake in the heart of Trump’s political career, there are a dozen — a dozen! — would be autocrats waiting in the wings to finish the job he started.

The issue is — there is something seriously fucked up with American politics right now. You have otherwise good people, who happen to be conservative, all but demanding the establishment of A Very American Autocracy…because they think liberals are annoying.

That’s it. They want to destroy America because liberals are annoying. I mean, that’s all liberals have is soft power. It’s not like they can shoot straight when it comes to gaining power and passing laws — even popular ones!

There are macro, tectonic forces at work in American politics right now, things I struggle to understand. But, in the end, as I keep saying we either have a civil war (Trump) or we slip peacefully into autocracy (DeSantis.) There is no middle ground and you have a few years to figure out which side of history you’re on. No amount of earnest, angry Twitter ranting is going to save you — nor will the system.

We’re fucked. Totally and completely fucked.

The sooner you pick a side or figure out how the leave the country, the better,.

In the end, all the shocking Cassidy Hutchinson testimony will be dismissed by most conservatives because there is some debate about the sexxiest element of what she said: that Trump attacked his Secret Service detail.

That’s it. What could have been a John Dean moment will be brushed aside and dismissed by the Right because of that one thing. As such, no consensus will develop about what to do with Trump, we won’t develop the political will to finally hold him accountable and we lurch ever closer to autocracy or civil war.

It’s all very disappointing.

And, what’s worse, even if we did magically gather the political will to do something about Trump, there are half a dozen younger would-be autocrats — Ron DeSantis chief among them — who would finish the job that Trump started.

We’re beyond the event horizon of autocracy or civil war. As I’ve written before, it’s like we’ve given up as a nation. The Right absolutely believes they’re being oppressed by the woke cancel culture mob that is turning everyone gay that they use their Hard power to punish anyone they find…annoying. American politics has collapsed.

Most of the Right wants autocracy through white Christian minority rule and as such the dispute over the Trump-attacked-a-Secret Service-Guy is all they need to dismiss everything else she said that isn’t in dispute or in any way contested. They have their hook, their talking point and now the two sides go back to their silos, their echo chambers.

And when inevitably my Traditionalist relatives demand I talk about politics with them, they will wallow in that dispute and say everything she was “bogus” and a lie. And we lurch closer and closer to autocracy or civil war.

But, really, it was inevitable that this would happen. And that’s why we’re totally fucked. The rot within our political system is so extreme now that the momentum for us to either become an autocracy or have a civil war is so powerful that there is no turning back.

I suppose if there was some sort of very clear cut tragedy — one that was absolutely impossible for the Right to spin — that we might, might punt this crisis down the road one more political cycle. But it would have be a 911 sized tragedy that was extremely clear-cut. Something impossible to muddle, that forced the more extreme elements of the MAGA New Right to cool it for a little while.

One last thing — the Right is very agitated and they’re ascendant. If anything happens where they actually lose that momentum, watch out. They’re going to burn the country to the ground. All the psycho “Night of Rage” bullshit that they were so sure the Left was going to do, THEY will DEFINTELY do.

Things are dark and getting darker. There’s no going back. Something’s gotta give. Pray.

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

The thing I struggle with the most these day son a political basis is why, exactly, white conservative men are so…angry. They’re so angry, in fact, that they’re comping at the bit to be Good Germans. They want to be Good Germans, damn the consequences.

They are quite vocal about how they want Trump without Trump in the guise of Ron DeSantis. They want autocracy. They sometimes talk around this issue by saying the United States is a “constitutional republic” and not a democracy, but what they mean is they want white Christian autocratic minority rule. It’s not like they’re hiding this desire.

But the issue that I keep wondering about is, why? What has changed in the last few years to make white conservative men so fucking angry that they’re will to trade their American birthright — living in a Western democracy — for autocracy.

Sometimes, I wonder if they even know.

They get really worked up about the woke cancel culture mob trying to turn everyone gay and yet when you mention that this is soft power and not the hard power that MAGA has, the deflect, conflate or just don’t say anything. Which makes you wonder even more — why are they so angry?

Are they really willing to burn everything to the ground…because liberals are….annoying?

It makes you wonder what the real cause of it all is. I think about this all the time and I have yet to come up with an explanation that doesn’t involve racism or bigotry. There are macro forces at work in the United States which are tearing the country apart.

We’re fucked. Good luck.

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

As you may know, during Watergate one of the more memorable moments was when Alexander Butterfield acknowledged the existence of a taping system in the Oval Office. It was a bombshell that ultimately led to the fall of the Nixon Administration.

It sure would help if the January 6th Committee Hearings managed to pull off something similar before they were over with. Something that would strike at the heart of the Trump Administration’s efforts to illegally stay in office. It’s still possible that might happen, but I have very low expectation.

And, yet, the MAGA cancer has grown so powerful in the American body politic that even if we managed to end Trump as a political force — however much this would make Twitter liberals spooge their pants — the overarching problem would not be solved.

America is fucking doomed. We’re past the event horizon for the existential choice of autocracy or civil war in 2024 – 2025. We’re fucked. An even if we bring down Trump politically, there are a dozen younger, more focused would-be autocrats chomping at the bit to finish the process he began.

As I keep saying — figure out what you believe in. Pick a side. A side will be chosen for you if you don’t. Good luck.

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

Despite what the person searching for that term above in the subject believes, the US is far from “open civil war” at the moment. But we are in danger of one in a few years. I have been writing for some time that America is open to a civil war at some point between now and Certification Day 2025. What the Dobbs decision does is give the already existing divisions within the United States a new, dangerous economic element.

Or, put another way, we are now, once more, a nation half free and half slave. In some states a woman has economic control over her body and in some states she doesn’t. Now, what complicates things is MAGA would tell you that the opposite is true — they’re the free states and Blues are the slave states. They would say that now because “every life is precious” a fertilized egg is “free” to be born and fuck you lib.

One thing I have to note is there’s a huge amount of slack in on the Right as to their expectations as to what happens next. Even though they’ve been demanding the overturning of Roe for 50 years, they clearly see it as nothing more than speed bump on their way to their final destination: a nationwide, complete ban on abortion in all 50 states. A number of Republican leaders have said this openly in the last few days since the Dobbs decision came out.

And that’s the crux of why it’s at least possible that instead of the United States slipping peacefully into autocracy around late 2024 – early 2025 we have a national divorce and, as such, a civil war. Blue States will simply refuse to have the MAGA knee on their necks for generations to come and they organize snap secession conventions. They might even do it en masse, in a coordinated effort to make it more difficult for the U.S. Military to do anything about it.

But all of that is very speculative. It could go a lot of different directions, some of them variations on a theme. It could be that the U.S. Military steps in and we have a military junta for a little while while we try a last-ditch effort to keep the country together. And, remember, all of this would happening in the context of the global order fall apart, too, so it’s possible we really could have something akin to a “Great Reset” — WW3.

All I say is — be grateful you have a few years to prepare. Get your affairs in order.

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

One of the theories about the decline and fall of the Roman Empire is that it was gripped by a sense of long term defeatism. Given what is going on the United States right now, I sometimes wonder if we’ve similarly just…given up. It’s like we collectively know that we’re probably going to slip into autocracy and we just don’t have it in us to do anything about it.

Because, make no mistake, the United States is fucked. We’re careening at an alarming rate towards a very, very dark future. And, for the moment at least, there is no apparent endgame, which, by definition, makes it a crisis. Are we going to slouch into autocracy or are we going to have a national divorce and start killing each other for political reasons?

I don’t know. Could go either way.

It’s all very sad. It’s sad that we are just too divided to do anything about our impending doom. There will be no Unity Ticket. Or reform. Or anything. We’re just letting macro trends follow their course and winging it.

Good luck.

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

I’m pretty good at both making an abstract concept concrete and running scenarios. What I’m bad at is persuasion. I can’t get anyone to open a door for me, much less heed any warnings I may have about the fate of the United States. And, generally, I’m always wrong. Always. I have a knack for taking a little bit of information and running with it to the point that I embarrass myself. Repeatedly.

But now that the Dobbs decision has been handed down, even I have to admit that maybe my hysterical dystopian predictions about the United States between now and 2024 – 2025….might be….right?

Now, some context. I have no idea if we’re going to have a civil war or turn into autocracy, but I do know that in 2024 – 2025 those will be our two options. There will absolutely be no middle ground. The country is either going to become an autocracy with all that entails — or we’re going to start murdering each other for political reasons.

In other words, something’s gotta give. We can’t keep this drift towards autocracy up without there either being a secession crisis or we just give up our democratic birthright.

But let’s go back to the issue at hand — will anyone notice if I’m right? I don’t think so. I’m just a random nobody in the middle of nowhere. I might — might — get noticed by a few Powers That Be types but it’s not like they’re going to allow me to sit with them at the cool table. I’m a nobody loser crank drunk and always will be, though, I guess, I do manage to follow in the foot steps of my literary hero Stieg Larsson (without the dying of a heart attack part) then…maybe someone will think I’m, at last, cool?

What is more likely to happen is the base case scenario is some Thinker for New York Magazine or The New York Times will crib ideas off me and then get all the credit without mentioning that little old me influenced their thinking.

Such is the fate of people like me who are too colorful and non-conformist for our own good. They tell you to be “just be yourself”….and then here I am. Alone and unloved. But I’m content. Or, even more importantly, should I be proven “right” I will have that to make me feel good while I’m in a Trump branded ICE camp.

Ugh.

I really don’t want a civil war. But that is the other option. If it happens, I guess I head north. Virginia is going to be very, very unstable and some form of infrastructure to accommodate domestic political refugees will be established to help re-locate people like me fleeing the MAGA New Right death squads.

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

Why, yes, anonymous Internet searcher, you came to the right Website. Here’s the theory of the case — macro trends are such that Something Big is going to happen to the United States in late 2024 – early 2025.

We have two options — autocracy or a “hot civil war.”

At the moment, I have no idea which one we will pick. But there definitely is a chance — and if Trump is the Republican 2024 nominee a really good one — that there will, in fact be a hot civil war in the United States sooner than you might think.

And, contrary to what the bonkers, rabid MAGA New Right people believe, it will be Blues who ultimately call for a “national divorce” and, as such, principate a Second American Civil War. As the Dobbs ruling shows, the MAGA New Right is ascendant and, as such, it would be a huge clusterfuck of a political force error on their part if they somehow were the ones to start a Second Civil War. They have no need to — they’re getting everything they want through politics and having a 6-3 majority on the SCOTUS.

At the moment, I don’t think we’re going to have a civil war — we’re just going to become a Turkey-Hungary-Russia style autocracy. The center-Left has no leadership and what leadership it has is too young or too ineffectual to have the guts to organize a National Divorce in the first place.

But we still have a few years. We can’t rule out that something I can’t predict might force the issue and cause Blue States to begin to leave the Union, probably starting with California.

Any such hot war would happen in such a way that it would leave all of us agape at what was happening. It would be like the historical equivalent of living through the sinking of the Titanic. Or, put another way — there would be no narrative or value to it until well after it was over and settled. While it was happening, it would be scary as shit.

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

First, because there are so many known unknowns at the moment, I can’t even be sure that there will be a Second American Civil War. There is every reason to believe that the United States will simply give up on democracy, our birthright because Traditionalists are afraid the woke cancel culture mob is going turn everyone gay.

But, let’s say a civil war did break out, probably in late 2024 – early 2025 as part of a Certification Crisis caused by Steve K. Bannon’s “spiritual shock troops” effectuating a “administrative coup.” There is a lower possibility that such a civil war might happen earlier if Trump becomes House Speaker and starts ranting on Truth Social that Red States should leave the Union if his multiple attempts to successfully impeach and convict Biden and Harris don’t work out. Let’s focus on the more likely possibility of it happening later.

If a Second American Civil War started, where, exactly, would it break out? Off the top of my head, it seems as though the first spark of a civil war would occur when it becomes clear that Republicans are going to brazenly steal the 2024 election and big Blue States like California grow restless to the point that they begin to have meetings with other Blue States about potentially seceding.

This would all be happening in late 2024 – early 2025 and it would be pell mell and chaotic. The few months between Election Day 2024 and Certification Day 2025 could be totally bonkers and chaotic to a point that no one has any control and everything moves so fast that we’re all overwhelmed. I suppose there is a possibility that there might even be some sort of Blue “Stop The Steal” Insurrection around Certification Day and that would precipitate Trump or DeSantis invoking the Insurrection Act and that would cause California to pull the trigger on secession.

One thing to remember is, Trump being the incoming POTUS by theft person at the center of all of this will greatly increase the possibility of a “national divorce” breaking out which would, in turn cause a civil war. A President-elect DeSantis would be way too smooth to cause a civil war — even if the Republican theft of the 2024 election is egregious and brazen.

Even though it is extremely difficult to game out this far out, probably the Second American Civil War would start in California when the U.S. Military decided to force the state to stay in the Union. This would be happening in the context of other Blue States breaking away as well. There’s an issue of what happens to the U.S. Military — does it implode or does it make a last gasp attempt to keep the nation together via some sort of coup then installment of military junta.

But let me be clear — barring a massive screw up on the part of Republicans, I just don’t see Reds starting a civil war. They be riled up by the far Right about how they need to start murdering liberals for political reasons all they want, but, lulz, Republicans are ascendant. All Republicans have to do is be patient and they will turn the United States into an autocracy and that will be that — they will get everything they ever want and more.

It’s really wild, in fact, how many obvious MAGA people come to my dark hysterical ranting about the possibility of civil war thinking that they’re going to see how Reds are going to start one.

So, the answer to the question is — if a Second Civil War starts, it will probably be California. But it will happen in the broader context of the country imploding into political violence. States like Virginia and Texas will collapse into coup and counter coup.

But, again, I can’t game out what is going to happen. And, for the time being, I think we’re just going to slip peacefully into autocracy.

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

As I keep saying, I’m the red headed step child of my family on a political basis. Everyone else in my family is a bed rock conservative. I call them Traditionalists.

For centuries, American Traditionalists have been the bedrock of our democracy because they believed that we were a democracy. But, alarmingly, my Traditionalist relatives — whom I love dearly — no longer believe in democracy. They get all worked up making it clear to me that we’re a “constitutional republic,’ NOT a democracy.

In other words, American Traditionalists are pretty much waiting for A Very American Autocracy so they can become Good Germans. American politics right now is very, very, very fucked up.

Traditionalists, because of extreme negative polarization and an extensive permission structure are now, are waiting with baited breath to support the suffocation of American democracy because they’re deeply concerned with being canceled by the woke cancel culture mob. The Traditionalist I know are completely consumed by the cancer that is MAGA, even though they’re reluctant to support Trump himself. They want Trump without Trump, which would be, of course, fucking Ron DeSantis.

Now, what is all very abstract to my Traditionalist relatives is very concrete to me. They simply want to burn everything to the ground to avoid the risk of an off color remark being recorded and then going viral so their life is ruined. They’re also very concerned about how the woke canceled culture mob is trying to turn third graders gay by “grooming” them. This is, like, at the very forefront of their mind, the thing they jump to the moment politics is brought up.

And, what’s even more alarming is there just is no middle ground anymore. Either your Red or your Blue. This is not the recipe for a very stable government. As such, the United States is careening towards a dramatic historic event of some sort in the coming years, probably in late 2024 – early 2025.

We’re past the event horizon. Because of macro trends we’re either going to implode into autocracy or explode into civil war. And, honestly, I still don’t know which direction we’re going to go.

Regardless of which existential choice we make, all of our lives will be greatly affected.