Tag: Autocrats Never Lose

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

From talking to my Traditionalist relatives, I’m alarmed at how popular the prospect of white autocratic rule in the United States is. Now, obviously if you ask them if they want a fascist state, they’re going to tell you’re being hysterical and that’s not at all what they want. But, then, they make it clear that they think democracy is “mob rule” and they are willing to vote for anyone who will end the tyranny of the “woke cancel culture mob.”

So, yeah, they want autocracy.

Now, while this is bad, the key issue is if we become an autocracy there is the problem of ME refusing to shut the fuck up, no matter what. I just don’t have it in me to be quiet once we fully transition into autocracy. I’ve been a loudmouth crank my entire life — often a drunk, loudmouth crank — and I’ve had the luxury of living in a Western democracy my entire life.

As such, I have to accept that there’s a real chance that should we become an autocracy I’m going to cross our new autocratic overlord and either find myself in an ICE camp, have to join some sort of real-world Resistance group or have to figure out a way to get out of the country.

I still don’t think we’re prepared for the reaction on the MAGA Right when all those liberals they hate so much actually do, in fact, leave the country en mass. Initially, they won’t know what to do with this turn of events. In fact, they’ll probably be pretty smug about it. And, then, when it starts to be a real brain drain — with a million or more well educated, well trained liberals leave the country — they’re going to freak the fuck out.

Some members of the Far Right will even go so far as to demand that it grow more difficult for people to leave the country. Form follows function, after all.

It will be interesting to see which direction we ultimately go. It seems, as least, to be growing apparent that we’re going to just become a Turkey or Hungary-style autocracy and that will be that. We’ll leave NATO (or be among the least democracy of the alliance). Given the America First nature of MAGA, America becoming Fortress America could spark a “Great Reset” of the world order because the United States is going go all Doctor Manhattan on us.

But their remains the possibility of a civil war. It’s not very high, but it exists and the crux of it happening would be if Trump or DeSantis is the 2024 Republican nominee. Trump is so stupid and lazy that he could, single handedly, spark a civil war by pushing Blue States into a corner. Meanwhile, DeSantis is far smoother and could pull off a peaceful transition into autocracy without a shot being fired.

Speaking of DeSantis, it is very interesting how my Traditionalist relatives address the difference between DeSantis and Trump. They say Trump “won because of all the press coverage of him” and, yet, they say, “DeSantis will win despite the press hating him.”

Which the fuck is it? Is the “liberal globalist cuck” Press all powerful, or is it not? I find this particular contradiction extremely aggravating. Get your story straight.

Anyway. Good luck, I guess. If you can the means to get out of the country, go for it. I may be up to poor people like me to fight the autocracy when it comes.

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

After Cassidy Hutchinson’s shocking testimony that Trump was only barely prevented from going to the Capitol on January 6th, it raises the question: what would have happened had he gone?

The key thing about such a clusterfuck happening is it would have dramatically escalated what was already a bad situation into a historic tragedy. There is a real chance that the presence of the sitting president at the front of a crazed, armed angry mob would, at a minimum, delayed the Certification of the vote for at least 24 hours.

Which, in a sense, would have been the whole point of him going to the Capitol in the first place: delay the process as much as possible to give Mike Pence as much time as possible to to contemplate what he was going to do when the time came. So, the case could be made that if there had been bloodshed because Trump went to the Capitol and that, by definition, delayed the Certification of the vote then there’s a chance Mike Pence would not have done his job.

So, there is a real risk that Trump’s coup attempt would have worked for no other reason than there would be such chaos that it would provide cover for it to work.

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

It definitely feels like we’re in the montage leading up to the United States either turning into a full-blown autocracy or…having a “National Divorce,” and, as such a civil war. To me, it’s clear that should there be a National Divorce, it will be Blue, not Red, states that serve the papers. Reds are ascendant and they’re getting everything they could possibly want through a combination of politics and a corrupt SCOTUS.

But, let’s suppose a civil war happens and Blues are successful in their war aims of leaving the Union and establishing an independent Blue United States. What would this strange new world look like?

The key thing to ponder is — which side got which states? There are a number of states that have a real difference between the governed and the government. The upper old midwest, “the Rust Belt,” is a prime example of this .There are a number of states there that would probably be flash points for a civil war. I mean, Michigan almost had a coup in 2020 and we were no where near to a civil war like we may be in 2024. And that doesn’t begin to address places like Texas which are politically shifting Blue in a macro way but are being held back by the autocratic politics of the Texas Republican Party. And, what’s more, states like Virginia are two states, one Red, one Blue, fused together who hate each other and would probably be the site of significant bloodshed if a National Divorce happend.

But, let’s imagine a time 10 years from now when all that is sorted out. After a violent collapse of the country, we have two nations where the United States once stood — the rump state of Trumplandia (USA) and some sort of Blue State, maybe the United States of Canada? What would life be like there?

On paper, the United States of Canada in 2032 would be a prosperous, forward looking nation. It would be a part of NATO and would be a part of whatever New World Order was established after the entire world went tits up during WW3 that happend as a result of the Second American Civil War. The USC Constitution would likely be much like Trumplandia’s but for things like the ERA being in it as well as the abolition of the Electoral College. There might be something akin to National Service. Abortion rights would be protected. Plutocrats would be expected to pay their fair share and there might have been an overall reform of the tax system. In fact, a whole host of much-needed reforms would likely have been enacted in the USC — including a rewriting or elimination of the 2nd Amendment.

I could see on July 4th, 2032 that one of the biggest issues facing the USC would be immigration — from Trumplandia. Or, even worse, the could be a lot of concern about the fate of African Americans in the Deep South as Trumplandia grows more racist and radical on the issue of race. It could get so bad, in fact, that either there’s something akin to a race war in the Deep South that would cause the conflict between the USC and the USA to linger, or millions of African Americans would be forced to emigrate to the USC.

One interesting thing is where all the useless Twitter liberals would be. Would they be still be smug in their big cities or when they left the country to its own devices during the National Divorce, did they say in the south of France to drink white Russians and smell their own farts? I think by 2032 they would have returned, still as useless as ever.

Once the USC got rid of the Electoral College, the Democratic Party would devolve into its component parts and there might even be an actual Social Democrat Party that was a serious contender. It’s possible that there might also be a Green Party that would force the other main parties to take global climate change even more seriously than they already were.

Meanwhile, in Trumplandia, things would be getting very dark indeed. Without any counterweight from Blue States, the USA would become very inward looking and the worse tendencies of MAGA would become enshrined in law. In fact, as I mentioned, things would suck so bad that Trumplandia’s large African American population might revolt on a regular basis, leading to renewed conflict between Blue and Red. I don’t think we give this element of the clusterfuck that would be a National Divorce enough thought.

Trumplandia would align with other autocracies like Russia, Turkey and Hungary. As I mentioned — any world where the United States has been split into two would be dramatically different because the transition would be very violent and very disruptive. A few billion people could have died in WW3 because of starvation caused by a few regional wars going nuclear.

And, of course, there is a real chance that WMD would have been used by both Blue and Red as part of any National Divorce and, as such, both the USC and the USA in 2032 would be recovering from that massive destruction.

Because of the issue of race, specifically in the Deep South, I fear any National Divorce would not be nearly as clean cut as either side would prefer. In fact, it’s even possible that during any Second American Civil War, Blue war aims could drift from simple independence to reuniting the country into something closer to the United States of North America.

It would be horrific. Millions would die. If it became an apocalyptic rock fight to the end between Blue and Red to see who got the USA “brand” then all bets are off. It could be that the United States could go from the wealthiest, most powerful nation in the world to something closer to modern day Afghanistan. It could take generations for the USNA to fully recover from such a colossal clusterfuck.

But one thing is for sure — in 2032 we either celebrate as Red and Blue, or we celebrate as an autocratic MAGA Trumplandia over the entire country. There is no middle ground. Something’s gotta give. Get ready. Pick a side, or a side will be chosen for you.

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

For some time now, it’s been a talking point of the Far Right that they want a “National Divorce.” This is, of course, completely bonkers given that the Red movement is ascendant. What they can’t get through the courts, they will get politically eventually via how elderly and weak willed the Blue leadership is.

So, logically, should it happened, it will be Blue States who serve the papers of any National Divorce. And if there was a National Divorce, it would cause a civil war that would be extremely destructive for both sides. But let’s suppose that Blue States leave the Union and Red States — after a spasm of panic trying to keep them in the Union.

What would this new, rump USA (Trumplandia) look like?

Well, the key thing I think for us to realize is how many people with center-Left leanings provide that Trumplandia economy with critical education, talent, training and knowledge. Millions of Blue Americans in Trumplandia will flee to Blue States should there be any National Divorce.

In short, the Trumplandia economy would — at least initially — implode if there really was a National Divorce. And, what’s more, there is the issue of race. The natural inclination of Trumplandia would be to disenfranchise African Americans to the point that they would face the choice of either fleeing to Blue States or revolting. This would lead to a severe amount of instability in Trumplandia, especially in the Deep South, to the point that that, in itself, might be a flashpoint between the newly independent Blues and Trumplandia.

So, a National Divorce between Blues and Reds — even if initially successful — could simply be the prelude to an even bigger clusterfuck. So, again, anyone — Blue or Red — who wants to National Divorce should think long and hard before they support it.

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

As we approach the 4th of July, I find myself thinking more and more about how Blue States have a growing case for secession. Now, obviously, this ironic given how it’s the far Right who STILL rant about how much they want a national divorce. But, as I have written repeatedly, if there is a National Divorce, it will be Blue States that serve the papers.

Now, in the abstract, I’ve finally decided the United States needs a national divorce. But strictly in the abstract. The reason is — any national divorce would, by definition, be a civil war and I hate violence. Or, put another way, any such divorce would be messy, bloody and extremely destructive. And not just domestically — WW3 (a series of simultaneous regional wars) would probably start if the United States had any sort of national divorce — billions could die.

States like Virginia and Texas would implode in to violent chaos. NATO would be dragged into it all and there are no assurances that WMD would not be used by both sides during the process of divorce.

So, as such, any desire I have for a national divorce is, as I said, strictly abstract. On paper, Blue States should leave the Union as part of the coming 2025 Certification Crisis. But we’re probably going to just slip peacefully into autocracy and it won’t be an issue.

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

It’s finally gotten to the point where it definitely seems clear that my “terribly negative” speculation about the United States facing autocracy or civil war in late 2024 – early 2025 is just being realistic.

This is the point where I wish VOX would do an explainer as to how people like me can prepare for either becoming a domestic political refugee (civil war) or becoming a victim of a weaponized ICE (autocracy.) Now, my Traditionalists relatives — who I love dearly – think I’m being hysterical or that my fears on this matter are “bogus.”

But it’s becoming more and more clear that one way or another, my future Good German relatives are going to face an existential problem – ME — when they get everything they want and I simply will not, can not, shut up when we’re no longer a Western democracy.

They’re going to tell me to shut up “for the sake of the family” and I’m just not going to do it. They had their chance to prevent autocracy and they lulzed it because they wanted one, not thinking about the concrete implications for me. So, there you go. I’m on my own. Should we pick the autocratic route instead of civil war I suppose my only option will be to figure out how to get out of the country, or, I don’t know, join some sort of real-world underground Resistance movement and take my chances that way.

All of that is, obviously, very, very speculative on my part but my time in South Korea as an expat taught me never to grow too complacent — an expat in South Korea can lose everything in a heart beat, your time in the country is never 100% assured. That whole experience left me kind of paranoid.

Meanwhile, there is the civil war option. I’ve decided that if that very dark scenario happens instead of autocracy, that I’ll figure out some way to head north, out of my deeply Red portion of Virginia. My gut tells me two things. One, Virginia is going to be the site of coups and counter coups. Two, there’s probably going to be some sort of infrastructure built out for people like me to escape Trumplandia when the time comes.

But, at the moment, I’m of the opinion that we’re just going to slip peacefully into autocracy. It will be a “light touch” Very American Autocracy at first. Nothing will really change and my Traditionalist relatives will smugly tell me that I have nothing to worry about.

And, yet, form follows function and, soon enough at some point after 2025, I’m going to have A LOT to worry about — as will they.

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

I’ve always been more anti-MAGA than Leftist or even liberal. I see MAGA as American fascism and, as such, I oppose it with a white hot rage. But, occasionally, someone comes at me on Twitter from the Left and I don’t quite know what to do.

This happened to me recently and I’m still rattled by it. It all began when I off-handedly tweeted something about you know the world is fucked up when the new Barbie movie looks like it’s going to be really good. Well, someone responded that, essentially, I was being a misogynist for saying that “women’s entertainment” might be good.

And it was quickly down hill from there, with things escalating to a bizarre level. It’s rare that I see the mythical “triggering” event happen, but, there you go. It happened to me. What makes it all so annoying is I wasn’t even thinking about the “women’s entertainment” element of the Barbie movie — I was just thinking that usually legacy IP movies aren’t exactly all that great.

But my “triggered” Leftist interlocutor was determined to paint me someone who says “not all men” whenever subjects touchy to feminists come up. I kept trying to make it clear that I was on her side, but she made it clear that because of woke identity politics I was shit out of luck.

I was a man, and by definition, I was wrong.

And that, my gentle reader, is how we got Trump. The Left is so determined to paint any white man as the enemy that they actively alienate people like me who would otherwise be allies. I don’t know what to tell you, folks.

Woke identity politics is extremely corrosive. What happens is Leftists and liberals get conflated by the MAGA New Right press and the extreme touchiness of Leftists is used as a wedge issue to get conservative Traditionalists to support autocracy.

That’s where things stand at the moment. The center-Left is dominated by the squeaky wheel of easily triggered Leftists who want to alienate anyone who doesn’t fit into their orthodoxy, while the MAGA New Right is organized, focused and determined to burn everything to the ground using their hard power.

It’s all very sad.