Tag: Autocrats Never Lose

Trump Is Not Hitler, America 2025 Is Not Germany 1933 — But We’re Still In Danger

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

It’s comical to try to make some sort of 1-to-1 between Hitler and Germany 1933 and Trump 2025 if he wins. I’m not saying it’s not POSSIBLE that Trump might somehow peacefully transition us into autocracy, just that if it’s Trump doing it, things might not go according to plan.

I have a lot of reasons to believe this.

People keep telling me to read up on the rise of the Nazis….and I have already done it and continue to do it! And the more I read and learn, the more I just don’t see there being a direct 1-to-1 between Trump and Hitler. So the fact that people who claim to have read ever so much more than me about this situation would claim some sort of 1-to-1 is very, very curious — and very annoying — to me.

But let’s go through some reasons why I believe that we can’t just assume that America will peacefully transition into a fascist state if Trump becomes POTUS again.

First, in general terms, Nazism was an expansionistic political philosophy, while MAGA is one of retrenchment. Some of these next differences are pretty obvious.

Germany in 1933 was a smallish, pretty centralized nation that had only become a democracy about a decade before after a horrible loss as part of WW1. America, meanwhile, is a very prosperous, very decentralize and diverse nation where we have a very strong sense of ourselves as being a “free country.”

Furthermore, Hitler was a Great Man of History. He bent history to his will. He was willing to knock heads — using the SA — and he was also, just in general, willing to put in the hard work necessary to transition Germany into a fascist state.

Trump, meanwhile, is a complete lazy idiot. And, what’s more, he’s not a Great Man of History. He’s just an avatar, a vessel for some pretty severe issues in American politics and culture. He just assumes that if he invokes the Insurrection Act that somehow, magically, that will be enough to subdue the Blue parts of a nation of 335 million people.

If it was anyone else in Trump’s historical position, then, yeah, I might be willing to believe America will soon be a true fascist MAGA state. But this is Trump we’re talking about. If Trump just pushes America straight into the cold dark waters of fascism overnight…there will be some sort of consequences.

I’m not advocating anything! I’m just saying if you do a back-of-the-envelope scenario, it just doesn’t make any sense that Trump could whip out his fascist MAGA cock and get freedom loving Americans to willfully suck on it. It’s just not going to happen.

One last thing — a key element of Hitler maintaining control in the early days was the SA making it clear to the average German that they had better be Good Germans…or else. And just from my discussions with my far more conservative relatives, it seems as though if Trump started to come after cranks like me that even Traditionalists in America might sit up and taken notice at such tyrannical behavior.

But I can’t predict the future. Who knows. But I still have hope that, in the end, we will save ourselves because no one else will.

I’m Just Not Prepared To Give Up On America

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

The thing about having a discussion on Twitter is everyone is running around with scissors and even when you agree with someone, sometimes, they feel obliged to disagree with you.

That’s what happened to me recently when I got into a debate about what might happen if Trump wins this year. There were all these people who telling me that if Trump goes full tyrant on us, then, that’s it. We’ll just become Nazi Germany Redux and no one is going to do anything about it.

I have some serious doubts.

But my doubts are so nuanced that it’s just not possible for people on Twitter to comprehend that I actually agree with them, with a few caveats.

The issue for me is if it was anyone else but Trump in charge of our transition into autocracy, then, yes, we would become an autocratic state without much trouble. But this is Trump we’re talking about.

There is a real risk that rather than him gradually guiding us into what seems inevitable at this point — autocracy — that he will thrash around and be so ham-handed in his efforts that he will make a lot of Blue America very very angry.

I’m not advocating anything, but if Trump just overnight turns himself into a dictator, that will bump into America’s self-perception. And that is why I think there is a chance that Trump, specifically, might be deposed in some way if he does all these crazy dictatorial things he is proposing.

America 2025 will not be Germany 1933. In 1933, Germans were ready and willing to embrace fascism. In America 2025, we’re talking about a huge, diverse and decentralized nation where not only is the military a foundation of our democracy, but the forces of fascism don’t have an SA to run around and knock heads.

And it will take time for an SA to be built out, even if the fascists wanted to create enough storm troopers to round up 20 million people to deport them. And that would be a window of opportunity for, say, a General Strike. But, of course, there is a real possibility that about 1 million wealthy Blues will simply flee the country rather than be the core of any sort of effort to topple ding-dong Trump.

I can’t predict the future, but I do have hope.

Oh, Jesus

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

I was accused of “optimism bias” on Twitter by someone who should know better simply because I believe it’s within the realm of possibility that Trump might be deposed.

JESUS FUCKING CHRIST.

I just can’t believe that if Trump does all the fucking bullshit that he is planning that the entire country is just going to shrug and let him do it. Really? Someone thinks that?

I know that, in general, Americans are pretty laid back, but if Trump starts to literally round up 20 million people and to go after his political rivals in a direct way… SOMEONE, SOMEWHERE IS GOING TO NOTICE.

I simply refuse to believe that Trump could go full tyrant and there wouldn’t be consequences of some sort. The US is too decentralized, too big, too diverse and has too much a tradition of democracy for Trump to go full tyrant without there being an effort to depose him.

But, who knows. It hasn’t happened yet.

Now That Stephen Colbert Has Mentioned The Federal Stand Off With Texas, We Lurch Forward

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

One thing that has kept the lingering standoff between the Feds and Texas at a low, inconspicuous simmer is it really hasn’t caught the attention of the national press. Yes, Fox News and the rest of the outrage-fueled MAGA media have been all over it, but, in general, the center-Left MSM has been rather meh about it all.

There’s a chance that may change — last night, Stephen Colbert devoted a sizable chunk of his monologue to the stand off, going so far as to mention that the whole thing might cause another civil war.

Now that we’ve reached that milestone, we need to think about what happens next. I think it’s possible that Seth Meyers might devote his Closer Look feature to the stand off, which will add to the political momentum for Biden to do something about the situation.

But I think the key thing to think about is the immigration deal that’s ping-ponging around Congress at the moment. Once that deal is officially dead, then the Biden will be in the clear to escalate the situation with Texas by, say, Federalizing the Texas National Guard.

So, we’re not out of the woods yet. Add to all of this the looming possibility of another major regional war, this time in the Middle East, and….oh boy. I think we need to hunker down and maybe have a bug out bag handy in case the absolute worst happens.

I’m A Survivor

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

These days, I often find myself thinking the unthinkable. Namely, what am I going to do if, well, the world ends. Now, obviously “the world ends” is something of a spectrum ranging from simply becoming a domestic political refugee to something far more severe like living through the aftermath of a DPRK H-bomb attack on DC or NYC.

I keep thinking about food. I keep wondering how I will eat in such a situation. I can’t cook and I can’t hunt. And while I have a downlow survivalist relative who wants to camp out in the middle of the woods armed — he lives in the wrong place. AND, he kind of misses the point — the state is going to be involved in any collapse of the US and, as such, I need to head to a safe Blue state should the worst happen.

In general, if the worst happens, I’m going to grab a few essentials and head north. First to Richmond than maybe see if I can get to NYC. Now, obviously, I’m working on the assumption that I won’t be alone leaving. I probably won’t even be able to leave until some sort of infrastructure exists that will allow me to live until I find succor somewhere safe.

But I do think a lot about this. I just don’t know how things are going to work out going forward.

At Least House Republicans Are Being Honest With The Mayorkas Impeachment

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

Impeachment, by definition, is a political process. That’s why President Andrew Johnson was impeached by Radical Republicans without there even being any articles — they filled them in later, after the vote.

So, I find the looming impeachment of Homeland Security Secretary Alejandro Mayorkas rather honest and refreshing — it’s being done by House Republicans for no reason but spite. They don’t even pretend that it has anything to do with “high crimes” — they just want to “send a message” to the Biden Adminstration.

And so, I wish they would do the same thing with Biden himself. Spare me the Hunter Biden bullshit. The only thing President Biden is guilty of on that front is of loving his wastrel son too much.

House Republicans should impeach Biden because of the “crisis at the border” and be done with it, rather than some sort of sham influence peddling charge.

But Republicans can only function in bad faith, so, lulz.

Civil War & WW3, Oh My!

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

The stand off between the Feds and Texas and the stand off between the US and Iran share one thing in common: they both risk uncontrollable escalation that might lead to some pretty insane things happening.

With the Fed – Texas situation, this is exactly the type of situation that members of the American Far Right have longed for for decades. It doesn’t help, of course, that the Russians are using social media to egg the situation on. One false move or misjudgment by either side and there could be, at least, a severe insurrection, and potentially a secession crisis.

Meanwhile, WW3 could break out if ANOTHER regional war broke out, this time in the Middle East. And such additional destabilizing event on the globe might push the DPRK over the edge and the next thing you know, the nukes are whizzing around.

As I’ve written before, one way to re-elect Joe Biden would be a Black Swan event like WW3 or a Secession Crisis. Hopefully, of course, none of this is going to happen and we can fight Trump politically on the merits.

Even though, of course, if he loses, he might start a civil war by demanding a National Divorce so he doesn’t go to prison.

Trump’s Proposed Tyrannical Moves Should He Win Won’t Happen In A Vacuum

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

I hate to even contemplate this, but ding-dong Trump is setting himself up for a pretty astonishing turn of events if he wins this year. He really thinks he can go full tyrant on us in 2025 and there not be any political consequences.


At a minimum, he might get (successfully) impeached.

At worst, something wild might happen that might lead him to be…disposed in some way. I have no idea how that would happen — it would be completely stunning if it happened — but I could imagine some combination of a General Strike and a very fed up U.S. Military using the cover of the 14th Amendment causing it to happen.

Or something. Something huge and dramatic that would be a Day The Earth Stood Still level of bonkers.

Of course, that opens the idea that Trump might pick a veep who was so totally and completely unacceptable and bonkers that he / she would be an “insurance policy” against such machinations.

Seems to me that Gen. Mike Flynn would be just the type of person to be such an insurance policy.

I just don’t know what to tell you, folks. We seem to still be on track to late 2024, early 2025 being totally and completely insane on a political basis.

It’s Not Even A Good Scenario

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

Maybe it’s not so bad that Russian spies and trolls might be reading this blog to get tips — at least they might come up with a post-civil war America scenario better than this one.


This is not at all what would happen to the U.S. If there was some sort of collapse, it would totally be a Red V. Blue situation, not a collapse into regions. And it would be far, far more messy than the map above might have you believe. There would be millions — MILLIONS — of domestic political refugees as people bounced around, look for someone to live that better fit their personal political views.

Anyway. I would suggest the Russians slow their roll with their drooling at the possibility that the US will collapse. It could be that we just turn into an autocracy.

Welp, WW3 Would Be The Type Of ‘Black Swan’ Event That Would Re-Elect Joe Biden

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

One of the reasons why Trump lost in 2020 was something none of us could have predicted in the years leading up to the event — a pandemic. The pandemic — combined with how dumb and lazy Trump is — was enough to jiggle the political dynamic to produce a Trump loss.

As such, we may find ourselves with another such “black swan” event — something akin to WW3.

We already have one major regional war in Europe and a minor one in the Middle East — if the US struck Tehran because of today’s death of three solders by a Iranian proxy group, then, well, all bets are off. Because if, say, Iran used one of the three a-bombs it apparently has access to on, say, Israel, then, yikes, that would so destabilize the globe that soon enough the DPRK and China would probably start lashing out as well.

There would be a rally round the flag affect and, there you go, Biden is re-elected. Of course, if, say, the simmering conflict between Pakistan – India — China also got hot….things might grow rather awkward.

It could be that rather than the US having a civil war / revolution or turning into an America First autocracy, the whole globe just collapses into chaos and…saves American democracy.

It would be surreal.