America is growing more and more unstable. The sad thing about it is, that instability boils down to something a nebulous and vacuous as “vibes.” Both Red and Blue have reason to resent the union that we find ourselves in. I will note, of course, that Reds are far bigger crybabies than Blues when they don’t get their way or if they feel slighted.
What’s the most surreal element to all of this is Reds are ascendant politically on a macro basis. But they are totally oblivious to this fact. They are so shortsighted and angry at any perceived slight — even though all the political momentum is on their side — that they’re chomping at the bit to start a civil war.
That’s probably the biggest mistake I’ve made when trying to game out potential civil war scenarios — Reds are acting irrationally. They have no political patience and they could very well shoot themselves in the foot and start a civil war even though they are well on their way to getting everything they want if they’re just take a long-term approach to their goals.
It’s interesting when talking to my center-Right relatives how they perceive the center-Left. They seem to think that center-Left people hate Apple Pie and motherhood. They believe that all center-Left people are gay or trans people who hate want to commit infanticide then crow about it on social media.
It’s deeply weird and based almost exclusively on vibes generated within the Right-wing echo chamber of podcasts and Fox News. (Even though a lot of Right wing people like to poo-poo Fox News, the network still sets, a general way, the agenda of the Right wing echo chamber.)
Anyway, I really, really hope that we just muddle through things like we always do (at least have in the past.) But I’m starting to have my doubts.
A sign that the United States is growing more and more unstable is it’s growing more and more difficult for people who disagree on policy to talk to each other. It’s difficult to say what is obviously true when talking to some conservatives, which is, “Hey, you’re a bigot.”
You just can’t do it. If you mention racism or bigotry being the core reason why this or that thing is generating so much fear and hate within someone who should know better, it would instantly end the conversation.
But, here we are — sexism, bigotry and racism are now generating a huge amount of political power within conservative ranks. That’s one of the reasons why the two sides are receding from each other at such an alarming rate — conservatives are very touchy — maybe even a bit delusional — whenever the issue of why, exactly they’re so upset about the “crisis at the border” or abortion.
I don’t know what to tell you — either we collectively dodge a bullet and just muddle through another four years….or we don’t.
Now that the Senate immigration deal is dead in the House, Biden can go ahead and Federalize the Texas National Guard.
The question, of course, is will he?
Talking to my far more conservative relatives — whom I love dearly — it definitely seems as though if Biden does something so obvious and justified, that on a political basis we may be going to the show.
One of the absolutely bonkers element of any second Trump Administration is the fact that he will be gunning for something we all taken for granted — birthright citizenship. This make me both very angry and very alarmed because the first thing fascists — like the Nazis — do is start to fuck with who is a “citizen.”
I have conversations with my far more conservative relatives — whom I love dearly — and their reaction to the potential demise of something as fundimental as birthright citizenship is a real life shrug emoji. They just don’t care. All they care about is “securing the border” to the point that when you press them about how they plan to deport 20 million undocumented people — they just laugh.
They don’t care, they just want it to happen, damn the consequences.
So, it definitely seems as though if Trump is re-elected that many of my dystopian fears for his first term will come to fruition. I just don’t know what to tell you folks. It definitely FEELS like I may very well lose my citizenship and find myself in a Trump-branded concentration camp at some point after 2025 if I can’t manage to sell the novel I’m working on and get the hell out of the country.
It is growing more and more apparent to me that should, God forbid, Trump get re-elected that there is only one Red Line for most Traditionalists — the personal. Otherwise, they will be so happy that brown kids are again being torn from their mothers and put in cages that it will all be a lulz.
But when things get personal, then, yeah, Traditionalists might stop being Good Germans.
The only reason why I even bring such a thing up is Trump is so dumb and lazy that he is the only person who might thrash around in such a tyrannical manner as soon as he has power again that the people who should be the core of his support — center-Right Traditionalists — might actually become “Radical Moderates” just long enough for him to be successfully deposed.
Even this is very iffy.
Maybe I’m wrong. Maybe we really are going to go straight into a dystopian MAGA Nazi future where people like me are snatched off the street an no one — no even Traditionalists who are related to me — will care or notice.
And, yet, at least now, in early 2024, I’m not prepared to assume that that is the case. I’d like to think that if Trump really does go full tyrant on us that because of the Red Line of the personal that Traditionalists might, just might, look the other way if Trump has to be deposed. (Not that I’m advocating anything.)
It definitely will be interesting to see how, exactly, things play out going forward. Just from my conversations with my far more conservative Traditionalists relatives — whom I love dearly — we are in a lot — A LOT — of trouble if Trump is re-elected.
They just don’t believe that Trump is going to do all the shit that he has made very clear that he is going to do if he’s re-elected. I keep talking about Agenda 47 and Project 2025 and they look at me like they have no idea what the hell I’m talking about.
All I can say is, yet again, that late 2024, early 2025 is going to be VERY INTERESTING.
In yet ANOTHER sign that the country is tearing itself apart, the fact that Saturday Night Live is trying its usual thing of trying to threat the political needle is causing people on the center-Left to pitch a fit.
The thing about SNL — which is the Bob Hope of TV entertainment shows — is while it definitely leans Left, it has a long, long history of pretty much just picking on whomever happens to be in power. It’s just that Trump stirred the pot to such an extent that the two sides have really, really hardened their views.
As such, people who are too young to remember how things used to be, think it’s the end of the world if SNL features Nikki Haley or brings back the very, very popular Right wing comic they fired even before the season began a few years ago.
It definitely seems as though all of this is yet more sign that the greatest nation in the world is tearing itself apart over “vibes.”
My personal view on any sort of violence can be evoked by what Napoleon did when he landed in the south of France after escaping from exile on Elba. When confronted by the army sent to stop him, he was able to use persuasion to get them to join him and the 100 days had begun.
I would much rather use my wits to get what I want than do something a declassee as us a fucking gun.
One of my earliest memories is how I totally agreed with Hawkeye Pierce on M*A*S*H hating guns. Even then I was like — Yep, that’s me.
Rather than collect guns, I collect books. A lot of books. I have a small library of books I’ve collected over the years. And rather plot the overthrow of the government, I put all my energies into writing what I hope will be a six novel project that, using subtext, rants about how much I hate extremism.
All my writing about a Blue “Revolution” in 2025 is just me refusing to have some sort of abstract fear about what might happen if ding-dong Trump becomes POTUS again. That’s it. I just need to, for my own sanity, prove to myself that we, as freedom loving people, at least have options and that America 2025 is NOT Germany 1933.
I can’t predict the future — no one can — but I have a personal compulsion to make my abstract fears concrete. As such, I just don’t think malignant ding-dong Trump can go full tyrant on us in a really haphazard way and there not be consequences.
If Mad King Trump really tries to rule the Blue parts of the US a tyrant as it seems clear that he does, then…oh boy. It just makes absolutely no sense to me that Mad King Trump could do all the tyrannical things he plans to do without any SA-like stormtroopers.
That is the key element of Hitler’s consolidation of power.
All these people who are aghast that I think there might be some reaction to Trump going full tyrant are making a basic mistake — they are assuming that if Trump starts to corrupt the administration of law and of justice that Blues are just going to roll over and let it happen.
As I always say at this point — I’m not advocating anything. I just believe in freedom loving Americans to refuse to live as slaves under MAGA tyranny. That doesn’t mean that a lot — A LOT — of smug Twitter liberals won’t flee the country.
They will.
But simply invoking the Insurrection Act isn’t some sort of MAGA fascist magic pixie dust. Rather than having “optimism bias” by proposing all of this, I think I’m being rather radical, clear minded and realistic.
I’m proposing that when pushed into a corner by MAGA fascists that Americans, en mass might rise up against the MAGA Trump regime in a stunning, historic way.
Just broaching this type of radical proposal is rather ironic coming from me, someone who hates any form of violence at all. But even the Constitution enshrines the right of the populace to revolt if need be. It’s weird that that particular provision of our founding document hasn’t gotten more attention of late, given all the bullshit that’s going on at the moment.
I have no idea of the specific of such a dire situation, but you, gentle reader, have to remember that not only is Trump NOT Hitler, but he also doesn’t have the SA to do his bidding. AND, what’s more, the US is far bigger, far more decentralized than Germany in 1933 and it would take time for ding-dong to build out the infrastructure necessary to knock heads the way Hitler did in early 1933.
That would be a window of opportunity for Blue forces to fight back against Mad King Trump. If we are VERY LUCKY, we might be able to co-ordinate some sort of General Strike that might cause such chaos in the country that the U.S. Military might step in and depose Trump in some way.
I know, I know, that’s pretty crazy sounding at the moment, but stranger things and all that.
The key thing for me is Traditionalists. These are people who are MAGA-friendly and they just want to see brown children torn from their families and put back in cages. When things get personal for them — say, when Trump uses a weaponized ICE to snatch their (white) relatives (like me) off the street then all bets are off.
The moment Mad King Trump loses the Traditionalists, then the lock is ticking. If we’re absolutely lucky, then Trump is successfully impeached because of the pressure of a General Strike. If we’re NOT lucky, then there is some sort of “Glorious Revolution” that doesn’t involve much violence, but does result in Trump and his veep being forceably deposed from power.
Now, obviously, this is the point where you say, “But won’t Traditionalists just become modern day Good Germans?”
That is very possible. But, remember, as I mentioned, Trump won’t have any SA shock troops as he enters power again. He’s dealing with 335 million Americans, most of whom have a basic assumption that the rule of law will be fairly and equitably administered.
Without an SA to remind Traditionalists to keep their heads down, there is a chance that their principles might kick in and they might, if nothing else, kind of look the other way as the more radical elements of the center-Left take charge.
I don’t want any of this to happen. But this is kind of personal for me because I’m a loudmouth drunk crank who simply will not, can not shut the fuck up about what a fucking cocksucker Trump is.
I will never, ever fucking shut up.
I would rather die on my feet than live on my knees a slave.
I was put on blast by a Twitter liberal because I pointed out that if Trump goes full tyrant after his possible election then there will be consequences. She called my comment “optimism bias.”
As is so often the case when trying to debate a complex situation on Twitter, what I was trying to say was lost in the argument. I don’t think I’m being optimistic to suggest that we might have a fucking revolution if Trump goes full tyrant.
That seems anything but “optimistic.”
Seems pretty fucking dark to me.
Her argument, it seems, is this — we just have to give up if Trump wins re-election. We can’t even game out what we might do as a nation if Trump wins. We just have to cling on to rainbows and unicorn farts and put all our chips on “voting harder” and, as such keeping Trump out of office.
Jesus Christ does this confusion make me angry.
Rather than pinning all my hopes on “voting harder,” I think we should start to think seriously about the consequences of Trump being a tyrant in 2025. I just don’t think that the US will go the route of Germany in 1933. The two nations are just too different.
The US is huge, diverse, decentralized and has a strong tradition of democracy. And, if anything, I’m embracing the idea that there won’t be any guardrails if Trump is re-elected.
In fact, it is the very lack of political guardrails that might lead to the very dark scenario of a Blue Revolution that would, in some way, depose Trump.
Jesus Christ did that dumb argument on Twitter make me angry.
It definitely seems to me that the lingering and simmering stand off at the Texas border may lurch forward into new and dangerous territory at some point in the near future.
It seems to me that once it is absolutely clear that the immigration bill now in Congress is officially dead that Biden is going to do something like Federalize the Texas National Guard. The center-Left media echo chamber is slowly beginning to get woke to what’s going on down there and there is building pressure for Biden to act.
The question, of course, is what is going to happen when he does.
I honestly don’t know. But I do think that the US is a lot — A LOT — less stable than any of us would prefer. On a basic level, the Right has crossed the Rubicon when it comes to being willing to commit political violence to “hold the line” against the Federal government.
The fact that Nikki Haley in a craven effort to win votes in a primary she is going to 100% lose has said that states have a right to secede doesn’t exactly help the situation any.
But we’ve not reached a tipping point. Things could still go either way.
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