Tag: Big Ideas

Assessing The Next 12 Months

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

The issue of what might happen in the next year could be rather profound in hindsight. The issue first and foremost that no one can predict the future. So, I can write all dystopian hellscape verbiage I want, in the end, only the good Lort knows for sure what is going to happen.

Now, in January of 2024, it definitely SEEMS as though Trump is either going to win and turn us into a very unstable autocracy, or he is going to lose and demand a National Divorce to save his sorry ass on a personal basis.

But there is always a chance that either Trump loses and just slinks off into oblivion, or some Black Swan event happens that no one can predict that gives us an off ramp from a very dark future that none of us can now predict.

And, yet, we have to take seriously at least the possibility that some fucked up shit is going to happen in late 2024, early 2025. It could very well be that the United States as we current conceive of it will no longer exist in a year. It could be that we either are just about to transition into a full-blown MAGA autocracy, or we’re just about to depose Tyrant Trump.

I am growing more and more nervous that because of where I live, I may become some sort of domestic political refugee in about a year. That I will be forced out of my home and forced to move somewhere that better fits my center-Left political views.

But at the moment, that’s kind of out there. It could be that lulz, none of that happens and we’ll somehow — somehow — punt our political and social problems down the road another four years.

Should I Be Worried?

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

I’m extremely harmless. I sometimes get drunk and worked up about MAGA and write some…provocative things…but I always calm down and move on to the next thing. I have a novel to finish.

And, yet, I occasionally get pings to this Website from people who are from the base of the ATF in West Virginia and that makes me EXTREMELY NERVOUS. I don’t mean any harm to anyone, I just have some very strong opinions. I understand why the AFT or FBI might be interested in me because I do rant a lot, but if they read this blog on a regular basis, it would also be clear that it’s just me letting off steam.

I hate violence. I hate guns — I really, really hate guns.

I just get worked up because I want to live in a traditional liberal democracy and it definitely seems at times that that thing — my American birthright — is at risk at the moment and I just don’t know what to do about it.

Anyway, please FBI and AFT, believe me when I say I’m a harmless nobody. No one listens to me and usually when they do they get mad. But I will note that when people DO listen to me — cool shit happens.

A 2024 Black Swan: What Am I Missing?

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

If 2020 proved anything, it’s that I just can’t predict the future. As such, I keep searching my mind to think up what I could possibly be missing about late 2024, early 2025 that would somehow give us an offramp from all my “hysterical doom shit.”

At the moment, I got squat.

It seems we’re going to lurch into a very dark and turbulent fate starting around November 2024 and things could be pretty rough for a number of years after that.

Or not. I just don’t know.

The most obvious thing that might throw everything up in the air is some sort of “health incident” that one or both of the old codgers who are running for president might experience. As for Trump, I don’t wish physical ill on him for no other reason than if ANYTHING happened to that fucker, the country might collapse into severe political violence not seen since the death of Martian Luther King Jr — only this time it would be red necks burning things to the ground because they believe the “deep state” did in their false prophet.

I suppose maybe a war — DPRK, I’m looking at you — might throw things up in the air. Then Biden would be a War President and he MIGHT be able to unite the country just long enough to defeat Trump.

If — God forbid — Something Happened and Biden was no longer the nominee, that would REALLY scramble things a great deal and things could go in directions no one — least of all me — could predict.

As an aside, I will note that it definitely seems as though Republicans may lose the House this year, which would que up Trump being impeached sooner rather than later if he went “full tyrant” on us. Throw in an actual effective General Strike and it’s at least possible THAT would be how we got rid of that malignant ding-dong.

But all of that is VERY speculative.

I have no idea what is going to happen. I just want to live in a peaceful, prosperous America that has a functioning democracy. That should not be too much to ask.

The Fire Next Time: ‘Implosion’

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

The issue with Trump going full tyrant should he be re-elected is there is a real chance that the whole political infection that is MAGA is the risk it might go septic, that it might cause a real fucking catastrophe.

So, let’s think about how that might play out. We’re going to go most likely to least likely when it comes to people MAGA might try to put in Trump-branded camps.

Undocumented People
This is the gimmie. This is the thing that Trump will use as cover to build out the infrastructure for all the OTHER bad things to happen. But, remember, Trump is dumb and lazy so there will be a window of opportunity between the time he says he’s going to round everyone up and when he actually does it.

Gay People
If you just follow the current trends of the Gay Scare that the US is undergoing, it seems logical that gay and transgender people will eventually, inevitably, be rounded up and put in the camps that were originally built for undocumented people.

Various Other People
I think, in the end, because of Trump’s personal prejudices, that MAGA will soon enough come after the mentally ill, alcoholics and the handicapped. It’s all a matter of time.

The big question of course, is what the reaction by Blues will be to such tyrannical behavior. That, I’m afraid, I can’t answer at the moment.

When MAGA Fascism Becomes Personal

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

Talking to my conservative relatives — whom I love dearly — I am taken aback by how while in general they’re all-in for rounding up 20 million undocumented people and their families and forcibly removing them from the country, they…really haven’t thought through the implications of doing such a thing.

They just, in general, want brown people out of the country so white people can be on top again. Or something. Something like that. I have tried my best — to little success — to make this extremely abstract issue (in their minds) as concrete and personal as possible. I point out that a lot of the people who would be deported would have adult children who are Americans and they just wave this concern away.

“Oh, I haven’t really thought about the specifics,” is what they tell me.

And Trump has specifically said he wants to do away with birthright citizenship as soon as he’s in office again. I’ve pinned my conservative relatives down NOW to establish that at least as of early 2024, they believe that if you’re born in America, you’re an American citizen.

I have a feeling despite having done that, that once the MAGA propaganda and talking points of the issue are issued once Trump does do away with birthright citizenship, they will just chuckle and not answer when I point out that they have had a change of heart.

The ONLY THING that gives me some hope is how ill-thought out much of the tyrannical MAGA agenda is. First and foremost, there’s no MAGA SA. And any of the various options that MAGA might use to create such stormtroopers will take time to build out. Also, the moment people married to brown men and women find themselves stopped an interrogated about the citizen status of their mate….there is going to be a lot of hell to pay.

As I keep saying, maybe some Black Swan event will give us an exit ramp that allows us to not to have to worry about MAGA fascism in the United States…but I dunno. I’m just not one to not at least game out various scenarios. I like to make my abstract fears, concrete.

Blues Need To Get ‘Woke’ About The Dangers of MAGA Fascism In The USA

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

Now that it’s mainstream Republican orthodoxy that the insurrectionists of January 6th are “hostages,” I wish members of the center Left would gird their loins for the battle royale we face. My fear is that it won’t be until Trump is re-elected and he goes full tyrant that a lot of center Left people will stop being keyboard warriors and start to think about how they can address MAGA fascism in the real world.

I’m not advocating anything. I hate violence. I’m a man of peace, a man of ideas. But I am saying that just telling people to “vote” or “pass it on” on Twitter won’t mean jackshit when 500,000 armed, weaponized ICE agents are running around snatching people off the street if they don’t have their “papers” or if they’re “an enemy of the people” because they wrote that Donald Trump can suck their cock on their little blog that no one reads.

I just want center Left people to get “woke” in the real sense of the word — they need to change their mental frame of reference. Center Left people need to realize that we may be going to the show in the sense that all my hysterical doom shit may be just….the reality that we’re going to have to live with in just a few months.

How likely is all that? I don’t know. I can’t predict the future. All I know is the center Left can’t allow itself to be sucker punched in January 2025 when Trump does exactly what he has been saying he will do for years now — become a tyrannical dictator who rules over Blue portions of the country as a king.

Imagining The Implosion Of Virginia Starting In Late 2024, Early 2025

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

As I often say, Virginia is actually two states — one Red, one Blue — fused together who hate each other. The divide is pretty much rural versus metropolitan. The thing about a National Divorce, should it happen starting in late 2024, or early 2025, is what happens to states like Virginia?

If Red States really do start to leave the Union, there will be a massive rush from rural MAGA counties for Virginia to follow suit. Meanwhile, the urban areas of the Commonwealth will remain loyal to the Union. I think we would see coups and counter coups in Richmond if the things really got bad.

On a practical basis, if Virginia imploded, I would have to figure out what I would do on a personal basis. I think I would head to Richmond where I have some relatives. But that would probably be just a makeshift solution. Even Richmond would not be safe to stay in very long. I would, I fear, have to leave Virginia altogether for a more stable state north of the Mason – Dixon line.

I would like to think an infrastructure will have been built out by the point that I have to leave RVA, but, who knows. I know I can’t predict the future, so it’s very possible that all of this is just me and my usual hysterical doom shit. But who knows.

All I do know is the United States is a lot less politically stable than we would like to to think. The MAGA Right grows more and more radical by the day and should the time come, I have no doubt that states where MAGA Republicans control the governments will begin the process of leaving the Union.

I suppose what will happen is roadblocks will begin to pop up between Red and Blue states as the process of collapse begins in force. I suppose that Red States — who at this point I think will be the ones leaving the Union — will issue their own passports. And the new Trumplandia government will have to attempt to seek recognition from other countries, probably with our enemies like China and Russia being the first to rush to do so.

But, again, let me stress, all I’m trying to do is make my abstract fears concrete. It could be that some sort of Black Swan event will happen and we’ll simply punt our severe structural political problems down the road another four years. But I do believe, in general, that our next Republican president — whomever that might be — will ben autocrat.

You’d Think I Was Napoleon Escaping Elba When It Comes To A Return To South Korea

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

The key thing is — as of right now, there is zero chance of me ever returning to South Korea. I just have the idea of one day returning on the brain at the moment since I’m not getting any younger. And, really, the world is so big that who knows, maybe I might have the means to return to South Korea, only to get distracted and go to Europe instead.

Back when I was a DJ at Nori bar.

At the moment, I just don’t know.

I only bring all of this up because something mysterious happened in my Webstats — someone went specifically to the post I did of me dwelling on what I would do if I went back to South Korea for a little trip. I have no idea what that means. They were in Canada, so it could very well be someone who knows me and is interested in any plans I might have to return to the Land of the Morning Calm.

The thing about me ever returning to South Korea is I would go back without knowing the context of my return.

It could be that it will be a nostalgic, uneventful little journey and I will return home to go on my next adventure somewhere else. OR, it could be a massive clusterfuck with all these people who remember the Bad Old Me giving me jump scares as they “accidently” run into me and confront me for all the crazy shit I did between late 2006 to early 2008.

The late Annie Shapiro and me, back when I was cute.

But I haven’t been in South Korea for a very long time. While I know I was really fucking weird at times while I was in South Korea the first few times….I’ve changed. I really have. All I’ve done the last decade or so is dwell on what went wrong with ROKon Magazine and how I could have done things differently.

And, what’s more, the person at the center of most of my fucked up behavior — Annie Shapiro — has shuffled off this mortal coil. So, really, everyone should just move on and let me visit my old stomping grounds in South Korea without giving me any grief.

I am very curious if Nori Bar is still open. I’m sure everything has changed if it is. It’s not like I could DJ there again for a night like I used to. I’m sure they just use something like Spotify to pick music, no need for a DJ. I had a lot of good times at that bar, I have to say.

Is The Fourth Turning Really ‘Here?’

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

Because I’m weak, I bought the book The Fourth Turning Is Here so I could read more about astrology for dudes. There are some severe problems with the whole notion of “The Fourth Turning,” but I will give the authors of the notion credit — it definitely SEEMS as though something along the lines of a “Fourth Turning” will happen in late 2024, early 2025.

It’s all very curious because it’s pretty clear that the whole idea of a Fourth Turning is complete and total bullshit. They just got lucky. The whole premise of The Fourth Turning just makes no sense.

But as I write those words, in the back of my mind, I find myself low-key gaming out some sort of massive clusterfuck starting in late 2024 early 2025.

I just want to live in a liberal democracy. AND, I would just like the opportunity to get into the querying process because the country I live in and love so much goes tits up.

January 6th Counterfactuals

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

I really struggle to imagine what would have happened had Trump force the Secret Service to take him to the Capitol on January 6th like he wanted them to. I don’t think he would have been any more success with Pence certifying the vote, but I do think the January 6th clusterfuck would have been a quantum leap worse.

The more I think about it, the more I think we came very, very close to going to the show with January 6th. If Pence had done as Trump wanted him to do — not certify the vote — there is a pretty good chance that there would have been the revolution then civil war that I have been predicting for much of the last three years.

All the conditions were there for the United States to buckle had Pence not found the guts to simply do a very ceremonial job. The country would have probably had a something akin to a Glorious Blue Revolution the moment Pence balked at certifying the vote. Too many people weren’t paying attention to what was going on with Trump and Certification at the crisis was taking place.

So, if Pence had successfully allow Trump to stage a coup….Jesus Christ would things have gotten hot really quick in the United States.

I’m just grateful that they didn’t. We still have time to save ourselves, not that we will.