by Shelt Garner @sheltgarner I’m old enough to remember how before MySpace, there was Prodigy. That was the online service, back in the day, that caused itself serious problems when it decided to charge users for its most popular feature — email. The service never fully recovered.
All the talk on the part of Elon “Space Karen” Musk about charging users a basic fee to use the X / Twitter service reminds me of Prodigy. The key issue for me is social media is very much old news. Everything is about AI now. In fact, rather than charging users for X, I would suggest Musk figure out a way to organically add AI into X to the point that it’s something that users of the service use everyday.
Social media has no buzzy these days and it’s dumb to try to re-invent the wheel, or, even worse, to charge for something that plenty of other companies are willing to give away for free. It’s all very curious.
But Musk has managed to pull a rabbit out of a hat before. So, I suppose it’s possible that he’ll manage to turn X into an “everything app” like he apparently wants to do so bad. I’m just leery. If this was 2012, then, yeah, maybe he might be able to pull it off.
But it’s 2023 and everyone’s mind space is dominated by AI. Only time will tell, I suppose.
I honestly don’t know why I continue to use Twitter or “X.” It is now nothing more than just a sewer of MAGA disinformation and bots that like my tweets in a weird attempt to catch my attention.
Or, if they’re not bots, they’re catfishing me. I say that because I seem to attract the putative accounts of way too many cute Asian girls who just got onto Twitter in the last month or so and have almost no followers. It’s enough to make me a little bit paranoid.
It makes me wonder if people with ill-intent read this blog and are for some reason trying to fuck with me. Maybe it’s a co-ordinated effort at a mind fuck from whomever that person in California who is obsessed with this site is. But, hopefully, that’s just me being paranoid.
I’m really — at the moment at least — all that important. That’s why anyone who gives me sudden, unexpected attention is suspect. I think that may be my age showing, if nothing else.
It’s too bad that that it’s now impossible for any real innovation in the social media space that doesn’t involve AI. Unless Space Karen unexpectedly pulls the plug on X, we’re stuck with Twitter as a very shitty global town square.
As I always say — I simply can not predict the future. And, yet, I have an obsession about making my abstract fears about the future concrete. So, here are some ruminations on what life during either a Second American Civil War (Reds) or a Second American Revolution (Blues) might be like.
There are a few things to remember off the bat — one is in either scenario, there would be mass chaos. There would be mass chaos to the point that the most basic elements of modern life like food, water and communication would be put into doubt.
If ever there was a way to end the “woke” era, it would be everyone being faced with some pretty fucking existential issues on a daily basis rather than if a CIS white male used the right pronouns or not. No matter how fucking woke you may be, if you’re worried about dying from an artillery shell in the middle of the night you just don’t have the mental processing power left over to be offended if someone gives you the “ick” by saying “female.”
As part of that chaos, there would be a lot — A LOT — of domestic political refugees as people fled to states that better fit their personal political views. And, of course, there would be the issue of Blue Cities in Red States that might be emptied Pol Pot-style. American Killing Fields, here we come.
Also, both sides would be greatly radicalized once either a civil war or revolution broke out, to the point that all the headquarters of all the major conservative media in NYC might be gutted by angry Blue mobs. This doesn’t even address the fact that Trump Tower might be “taken” at some point during either one of the worst case scenarios.
The darkest element of either a civil war or a revolution would be race relations in the South. It’s easy to imagine a fucking race war breaking out in the South as white conservatives try to rearrange the political order in a rather vicious manner, prompting African Americans to fight back.
Overall, a civil war or a revolution would be very messy and very, very bloody. You would have to take into account the fact that WW3 would probably break out and the DPRK might take America bombing itself into oblivion over “vibes” as an opportunity to lob a few nukes our way.
I just don’t see how we thread the needle like we did in 2020. But, like I keep saying — I can’t predict the future. Maybe everything will turn out the way that Mueller, She Wrote believes and all my fears are just “hysterical doom shit.”
The thing that so many nattering nabobs of negativism are completely and totally oblivious about is the cold, hard fact that about 38% of the electorate hates democracy and wants a MAGA-themed autocracy of blood and soil. They want a theocratic, fascist state and they see malignant ding-dong Trump as the vessel, the avatar that will give that dystopian hellscape future to them.
It’s hard for well-paid talking head pundits to give anything but shitty hottakes when they make the basic mistake about the intentions of one of the two major parties. To be a modern Republican is, by definition, to be a fascist who wants to eliminate all but consumption taxes and while replacing the “administrative state” with the “moralistic state.”
That’s what people voted for with Trump in 2016 — he sold himself as an autocrat and that’s what people wanted. The quirk in our transition into autocracy was — surprise! — Trump was too dumb and too lazy to do even the most basic of autocratic things to stay in power forever. He waited until the very last step in the process to try to stay in power.
This proves that Trump is not a Great Man, but rather just an vessel, and avatar, for the severe rot within the modern day American political system.
Once we get past the final death rattle of our dying democracy, all taxes will be replaced by a 30% VAT. Meanwhile, abortion will be 100% illegal nationwide. Being gay will be illegal. The already existent ICE camp system will be weaponized and people like yours truly will find myself in a camp, if I’m not just shot by a MAGA neighbor during the transition to autocracy.
Now, for me, the issue is the United States is a big and diverse nation. So while the hellish agenda on the part of MAGA would probably be easy to peacefully make a reality in a small, more homogenous country, there is a greater-than-zero -sum chance that if Republicans screw up there MIGHT be something akin to a “Resistance Revolution.”
I’m not holding my breath, though.
Smug wealthy Twitter liberals already have a second passport. They are already gaming out how they can continue to produce their circle jerk podcast outside the United States once we’re an autocracy. I just don’t see them giving enough of a shit about we “Poors” to risk their lives and sacred honor on something as abstract and unprofitable as “democracy.”
Meanwhile, I DO think there is a pretty good chance that if Biden — or whomever — wins in 2024, that Trump will demand a National Divorce in a personal effort to stay out of prison. So, soon after we all congratulate ourselves for having defeated MAGA for another election cycle, the monster will come for our throats in the guise of a Secession Crisis.
Probably starting with Texas first.
So the key issue is I just don’t see us managing to find a “Third Way” like we barely did in 2020. This coming 2024 election cycle IS IT. Either America is no longer a democracy, or we have a civil war (Reds) or a revolution (Blues) depending on who wins and who loses.
I can not predict the future. No one can. But all signs point to either the United States becoming a MAGA-themed autocracy starting in early 2025, or the entire country going tits up because of either a civil war (Reds) or a revolution (Blues.) As such, I find myself contemplating what I am going to do if I simply can not live in my rural MAGA-loving area anymore.
But, first, I have to think about what might cause me to actually leave my home in the first place. The thing about Virginia is, it’s two states — one Red, one Blue — fused together who fucking hate each other. As such, I can totally imagine a scenario whereby Virginia is one of the first states to implode into severe intra-state political violence if there is any sort of National Divorce or Blue Revolution.
Give my nature, I suppose I will wait until it’s clear that people around me know that my politics don’t fit the vibe of the area and I get the sense that maybe I should flee. But it would have to be real. It couldn’t just be some vague, abstract sense of unease.
I have long believed that if the End of the World came, I would either be the first person to die or the person who helped bring back civilization. So, lulz, it could be that I just open my front door one day in late 2024, early 2025 and I get shot in the face.
But who knows. I guess if things get too hot for me I will grab some essential in a bug out bag and head north one way or another. I have a well-meaning relative who wants to hide out in the woods, but he’s south of me and that sounds rather fatalistic. Once states begin to leave the Union, the the force of the State will be involved in things and it makes no sense to stick around.
I have some relatives in Richmond, so I guess I’ll drive in that direction? But that’s an iffy situation if things really are collapsing, so I may just using whatever infrastructure has developed to facilitate Blues in Virginia getting to safety in Maryland and beyond and use that.
One sign that we are totally fucked in 2024 is the absolute insistence on the part of people like malignant ding-dong Trump that the center-Left wants to murder babies. This is not true. Everyone knows it’s not ture, and, yet, here we are with millions of rabid MAGA people wilfully believing this awful blood libel because of confirmation bias.
The Nazis never met a blood libel against the Jews they didn’t like and if you stir in some dumb Qanon ideas into the mix of what MAGA is up to, well, that’s a tragedy that writes itself.
It’s all part of a surge in some tectonic forces that are tearing the United States apart. I will again state that if the absolute worst happens in the United States, be in civil war (Reds) or revolution (Blues) it will be the single biggest geopolitical even in real terms since the French Revolution.
Everything will be different once everything is sorted out. Either America will be all MAGA, divided or all Blue. No matter what the outcome, there will be MILLIONS of American who will flee the re-imagined area of the United States, which will spread America ideas across the globe.
What’s more, the likelihood of World War Three increases significantly in late 2024, early 2025. The moment the United States is too distracted because it’s imploding is also the moment that a number of simmering hotspots across the globe will explode into violence — some of it nuclear tipped.
And MAGA’s Blood Libel against, well, people like me, is the tip of the spear of some potentially astonishing geopolitical events. There are any number of pretty fucking dark scenarios to contemplate if we don’t manage to just punt things down the road another four years.
I just don’t know what to expect. I just can’t predict the future. But things like the MAGA Blood Libel against people who support abortion rights is extremely alarming!
One thing I’ve noticed is a certain level of clueless, oblivious naivete on the part of some people who should know better when it comes to what a Second American Civil War might be like.
I’m working on the assumption that if there is an actual 2ACW, it will be because Trump loses in 2024 and, in a desperate attempt to evade prison and starts to rant about the need for a National Divorce and, lo and behold, states like Texas take him up on the idea.
There is a far small chance of a Blue “Resistance Revolution” if Trump wins and is incoming agenda is just too radical for Blues, but I have serious doubts that Blues, by nature, would have it in them to do such a thing.
But the issue is that any National Divorce would lead to a 2ACW because of how Purple the country is, in general. A lot of Red States have a dollop of Blue in them in the guise of their major cities. As such, if a state like Texas or Tennessee secedes, their Blue Cities will probably be the site of some serious fucking flashpoints.
There is a real risk that America will go all Cambodia on itself, with the rural areas of the country rising up and emptying the cities to establish American Killing Fields. Or something, something gruesome like that.
Way too many members of the nattering nabobs of negativism have STILL yet to come to grips with how dark our future is. American politics are collapsing before our very eyes and once we finally reach the Singularity — we’re probably going to fight it out in the real world with real weapons, instead of just being fucking keyboard warriors.
And, remember, once you crack the egg of civil war or revolution, things usually get out of control –just as the French. Once MAGA finally goes septic, loudmouth cranks like me will be right behind Jewish people when it comes to being packed up and sent to a weaponized ICE camps.
The main thing to remember is the United States is a lot less stable, in general, than we would like to think. It definitely seems as though 2024 will be the most significant election in American history since 1860. The only thing that spared us the symmetry of 2020 being it is, well, Mike Pence decided to destroy his political career by doing what he was supposed to.
But the issue remains –we are careening towards a potentially catastrophic near future. I, of course, can’t predict the future, so there is always a chance that some how, some way, we’ll do what we did in 2020 and find some sort of “third way” that allows us to punt our severe structural problems down the road another four years.
I just don’t know. They say you go bankrupt gradually, then all at once, so it could be one of those things where we just don’t know what is going to happen…until it happen.
There are a number of scifi franchises that have been so strip mined over the years that they just need to be left alone for a little while. But the time will come when they can finally be hard rebooted for a new generation.
Here’s an idea for how to do it with the Terminator.
The movie ostensibly is simply a near shot-for-shot remake of the original, but with a far bigger budget. Maybe get someone like Jason Momoa to be the new Terminator.
But there would be a trick ending — Sarah Conner dies at the end of the second act!
The remainder of the film would be an exploration into an error on the part of the people who sent Kyle Reese back in time. They thought they were sending him back to the same timeline as their own, when, in fact, by definition, time travel causes a new timeline to be spawned the moment you appear in the past.
This is a way to bring new life into a very old and beat up franchise. I think Gen Z would really dig the use of the multiverse concept.
The social media era is over. There’s just no buzz around it anymore. After a lot of crypto hype, we’re now fully in the AI Revolution. But occasionally, I find myself mulling what could have been, especially given how fucked up Twitter is now because of Space Karen.
There are a few key elements that could have been included in a new social media service that I think would have made it a success. One is, having some sort of paid editorial staff. If you had people who were paid by your social media service specifically to churn out high quality reporting, I think that would be a key advantage over other, similar services.
Also, I continue to believe that could have be useful is the idea of Groups. Now, of course, some will say that was tried with Google+’s “Circles” but that’s not at all my vision. In my version of things, everyone would have the ability to create as many “Groups” as they liked and even be able to manage who might be able to Post in each Group.
You would have a full page Post to work with and threaded discussions of those Posts.
But, alas, I just don’t see any of this happening. The moment is over. We’ve all moved on.
A few days ago, I was talking to someone about the “old way” one would get information about a movie. You would flip open the local newspaper, find the ad for the newspaper you might be interested in and go from there.
Well, this conversation crossed my mind again recently and lo and behold, that very same day I was pushed a video on Tik-Tok that detailed that exact process. It was so specific to what I had talked about that I was taken aback.
Now, obviously, there are three possible explanations for this odd situation.
One, it’s just a coincidence. I’m reading into all of this a lot more than I should and let’s move on to something else.
Meanwhile, there is also the idea that Tik-Tok is actively listening to our conversations using our phone’s mic. If this was happening, it would be alarming for a number of reasons, least of which would be the national security implications of a Chinese company with ties to the CCP listening to the conversations of millions of Americans. (Not that I don’t think American Big Tech isn’t doing the same thing as well.)
The THIRD, most bonkers idea, is digital telepathy — Tik-Tok is reading our minds. I don’t believe this is happening — don’t believe it’s even possible to do — but these weird “coincidences” involving Tik-Tok seemingly knowing my inner monologue happen again and again to a surreal degree.
Anyway. Something unusual is going on, I just don’t know what.
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