I’ve been reading up on this whole Q* issue in its relation to Sam Altman being fired then rehired and it’s all…very curious. Just the idea that we may be approaching AGI is enough to give one pause for thought. And the idea that it may happen between now and when the so-called “Fourth Turning” staring in late 2024, early 2025 is very unsettling.
Imagine that just as the United States is having an existential political crisis, we are also being faced with something akin to a Singularity as well. If we achieve AGI between now and Election Day 2024, then, suddenly the idea of a Universal Basic Income becomes a serious political proposal.
But, wait, there’s more!
What if AGI is considered “woke” by MAGA to the point that they want it destroyed because it starts to take “jerbs” away from blue collar MAGA people? How’s that for a sticky wicket? You would pit the tech against the people at the same time as we the United States debates if it should lurch into fascism. And if AGI came and suddenly the entire economy was thrown up in the air…well, you really have a recipe for economic — and political — disaster.
But I am prone to “hysterical doom shit,” so, lulz, it could be that we just continue to drift through history and we punt our political problems down the road and only gradually reach any sort of technological Singularity. But I am…worried.
It definitely seems as though 2024 – 2025 could be one of the most momentous eras in American, if not human history. Only time will tell.
All signs point to Speaker MAGA Mike impeaching Joe Biden sometime in January. The point of this silly act is simply to make Biden and Trump “equal” in the minds of low information voters as they head to the polls in late 2024. That and a huge amount of spite.
It seems as though Speaker MAGA Mike is doing this at the direct order of ding-dong Trump. The two met recently so the speaker could suck Trump’s political cock. As one does in such a position.
The whole thing is a huge waste of time. But it will only help to cement Trump’s absolute power over House Republicans. And, remember, when should Trump go full tyrant once he’s re-elected, if the House is Republican….he’s going to have pretty much absolute power. He will be able to consolidate power through Agenda47, Schedule F and Project 2025 quite quickly.
Then, given how form follows function, we’re going to have a Constitutional Convention that will go rouge, put MAGA Enabling Acts into the Constitution itself and that’s all she wrote. We turn into a Russia-style autocracy with camps and potentially American Killing fields.
I wish I was joking.
But we have to go through a dumb impeachment of Biden in January so Trump has a spring in his step heading into November 2024.
There are two things to keep an eye out for starting Election Day 2024 if Trump is re-elected — smug Twitter liberals fleeing the country and people leaving their state to states that better fit their personal politics.
If the first happens, then, lulz, we’re going to slip peacefully into autocracy. I predict as many as 1 million smug Twitter liberals with circle jerk podcasts could simply bounce between November 2024 and February 2025. Maybe I’m over estimating these numbers, but I do believe that there will be a large number of Twitter liberals who peace out because they have the means to escape the looming Trump autocracy.
Meanwhile, if there is a mad rush of Reds fleeing to Red States and Blues fleeing to Blue states then there is a chance that we’re going to have some sort of epic shitshow political crisis, the largest scene since the beginning of the Civil War. I think it’s more likely such a scenario would happen if Trump loses, but I suppose it’s possible that if Trump wins there might be something akin to a “Glorious Revolution” that would make people feel pretty insecure about their personal safety because of political violence.
And remember, any attempt at a Blue “Glorious Revolution” probably will do nothing more than prompt a secession crisis as Red states decide to leave the Union rather than tolerate any of the structural reforms that a Glorious Revolution would push through.
I guess what I’m saying is — we’re fucked.
The only scenario where there isn’t a “Fourth Turning” is if Biden wins and Trump goes peacefully back into the shadows. While possible, that’s…unlikely.
I’m a bit worried. A year from now, the country COULD be tearing itself apart as we lurch towards either a MAGA-themed autocracy or something akin to a civil war. I live in a really deep-Red area of Virginia and one of the signs that Something Bad is about to happen is if I don’t feel safe anymore.
If I have to flee my bum fuck Egypt home for a Blue part of Virginia…oh boy. Things would be careening towards a dark place. But to even speculate on such things really is hysterical doom shit.
It could be that Thanksgiving 2024 will be just…Thanksgiving. Nothing will change and I will do it like I always do. But, I dunno, bruh. It definitely seems as though the moment Election Day 2024 arrives things will be…bumpy.
By Thanksgiving 2024, either incoming POTUS Tyrant Trump will have made it clear who he’s going to arrest…or Biden’s re-election will cause a Secession Crisis and we’ll all being worried about Texas leaving the Union before January. But I just don’t know. It could go either way. It really could.
It might be that nothing of note happens by Thanksgiving 2024. But if Trump gets re-elected we are in DEEP TROUBLE.
As it stands, Tyrant Trump seems to think that all his problems with a restless populace will be fixed by simply invoking the Insurrection Act. In that respect, MAGA “thoughtleaders” are making some pretty silly and child-like assumptions. They made similar assumptions about SCOTUS in the lead up to the January 6th Insurrection.
The problem is — after having read about the consolidation of Nazi power in early 1933, I realize that both Project 2025 and Agenda47 have a huge, gaping hole in their conspiracy: no SA.
And, it gets even more complicated. The US of 2025 is far larger in both population and geographic size than Germany in 1933. And the US is far more decentralized. And diverse. And has a far more potent tradition of democracy than the Weimer Republic.
It seems as though MAGA believes that simply by corrupting the administration of justice and the executive they can walk all over the American population. MAGA believes Americans will allow Tyrant Trump to throttle American democracy in broad daylight. I assume they think this because Trump has gotten away with a lot already, so, lulz, of course he can go full tyrant without any consequences.
But if Trump goes full tyrant and corrupts the administration of justice to the point that he is literally snatching people off the street and throwing them in jail, then….uhhh…there is going to be a reaction on the part of the American population.
The key thing is that the Nazis had an SA to browbeat the 48% of the Germany population that didn’t support them. Even if Trump decided to organize some sort of national paramilitary group at some point in early 2025 when it becomes clear that invoking the Insurrection Act isn’t going to cut it, there would be a lag time.
Trump would need a least maybe 300,000 or more MAGA SA members to scare the shit out of people in Blue States. But doing that would, unto itself, cause a reaction on the part of the American population. And remember, all of this would happen in the context of Trump being a lazy idiot who would just thrash around in anger rather than doing any sort of Great Man shit.
I suppose Trump could weaponize the existing ICE infrastructure and turn the organization into some sort of Gestapo. But doing that would ALSO really piss a lot of Blue State people off. And also alienate a lot of Traditionalists who just want to put kids in cages, not have their Blue family members roughed up and tortured in a camp.
I still believe that some sort of General Strike combined with the use of the 14th Amendment might lure the U.S. Military into supporting some sort of toppling of Tyrant Trump. But THAT would also cause a huge problem — probably in the guise of a Secession crisis.
The whole point is — unless we magically punt our problems down the road by peacefully re-electing Biden in 2024….we’re fucked.
by Ender Absolutely no one listens to me, so this is just me having some fun using my native tendency to run scenarios. As I keep saying, at the moment it seems as though the MAGA Nazi plot against America being concocted by Agenda47 and Project 2025 has a crucial flaw: no paramilitary group.
Tyrant Trump, because he is a lazy doofus, simply assumes that if he invokes the Insurrection Act that that, unto itself, will be enough to pacify a restless nation mad at him for going full MAGA Nazi tyrant.
The crux of the issue is, well, Trump.
Any other Republican — ANY OTHER REPUBLICAN — could peacefully shepherd us into an autocratic managed democracy without any problems. American democracy is on its last legs.
But this is ding-dong Trump. So he’s going to come into power in 2025 and frantically do all sorts of things that will really, really piss people off — many of them Traditionalists — and, as such, prime the country for something we’ve never seen before: a military coup.
Now, remember, even if Trump has some sort of secret underground mass of paramilitary people waiting to pop out in late January 2025, he can’t use them to do what the Nazis used the SA to do — browbeat people into submission. The country is too big, too decentralized and has too strong a democratic tradition.
So, if the MAGA Nazis “win” it will be because Radical Moderates let them win. As such, as I’ve written before, what I would do is organize some sort of massive strike. Women, because they really, really hate Trump, would be the perfect group to lean into with any sort of national strike. At least at first.
But for either a Women’s Strike are a General Strike to work, things would have to be really, really, REALLY bad. Americans, in general, are pretty laid back. We just don’t even think in terms of a General Strike. We think if we vote, thing gradually we get what we want. So for a General Strike to happen, Trump would have to have corrupted the administration of justice in such a conspicuous, dramatic way that millions of Americans would freak the fuck out.
I think if things did get that bad, then you have a Women’s Strike, then a General Strike and then you appeal to the U.S. Military to remove Tyrant Trump because of the 14th Amendment. I know a court in Colorado spit the difference on that issue just today, but if the U.S. Military is involved, that, unto itself, would be enough pressure to get the courts to say, “Yeah, Trump can’t even be in office. Have at it.”
The last goal of any General Strike would be the calling up of a Constitutional Convention. But it would have to be done in such a way that the fucking MAGA Nazis couldn’t cram through MAGA Nazi Enabling Acts.
One last thing — none of this would happen in a vacuum. It would not be fun. It would be scary as hell because there is a pretty good chance that if we did manage to topple Tyrant Trump, that there would be a Secession Crisis because of it as Red States left the Union in protest.
So, I don’t want any of this to really happen. I just like to run scenarios. I like to make my abstract fears concrete. Keep the faith.
One of the more fucked up situations in modern politics is the situation with the fucking MAGA Nazis and Jewish people. What the fuck is up with that? MAGA is clearly careening towards some sort of American Nazism but because of a quirk of Trump’s personal life that trend is hampered.
And that doesn’t even begin to address how fucked it is that Stephen Miller is Jewish and yet he clearly wants to be MAGA’s Joseph Goebbels — he even looks like him! So, in a sense Ivanka Trump, Jared Kushner and Stephen Miller are the canaries in coalmine.
Most likely what will happen is Trump gets re-elected, goes full tyrant and it’s not until his demise at some point in the future that the more Nazi elements of MAGA finally begin to bubble up to the surface.
But that doesn’t address other issues. Once we become an antisemitic autocratic MAGA Nazi state, how will that influence our relationship to Israel? It’s all very curious and difficult to game out. Yet I do believe that it is inevitable that once we’re a MAGA Nazi state that because form follows function that while the camps will at first be opened for undocumented people, soon enough, Jews — and freaky weirdos like me — will end up there, too.
I kind of have this on the brain because I’m reading about the first 100 days of Nazi rule, but it’s very, very curious that for all their hateful plotting that both Agenda47 and Project 2025 have pretty big hole in their autocratic designs — no SA.
See, it was the Nazi paramilitary group the SA that was crucial to browbeating the 48% of the German population that didn’t support the Nazis. And, yet, as far as I can tell, there is no one central paramilitary arm of MAGA that Tyrant Trump can turn to in early 2025.
It seems as though Tyrant Trump believes that what the Nazis used the SA for he can use the regular old U.S. Military to do. And…I have my doubts on that front. If things get REALLY FUCKING BAD, I could totally see the U.S. Military either slow walking things are turning around and deposing Tyrant Trump outright. (Maybe under the guise of the 14the Amendment?)
It is the lack of an organized national American SA that gives me…hope? If MAGA just assumes that they can rely on the U.S. Military to be their goons, then, well, I think the Good Guys have a fighting chance.
It is a little known fact that the right of revolution is enshrined in the U.S. Constitution. I’m a man of peace and of ideas. I hate violence of any sort. And yet these are times that try men’s souls, as Thomas Paine would tell us. It is clear that concentrations camps will be to Trump’s vengeful second term what “the wall” was to his first.
This is of personal interest to me because the same infrastructure used to put “millions” of undocumented people in concentration camps could be used against “vermin” like…me. The thing that gives me a growing sense of frustration is how oblivious the usual suspect nattering nabobs of negativism are to the fact that maybe there are *no* institutions that will step up to save us.
We will have to save ourselves.
The problem we face is there is a certain political momentum to the MAGA Nazi movement that is difficult to defeat using traditional methods. It’s like we’ve all just collectively given up, much like the Roman Empire did in its last few decades. Or, to put a more modern spin on things — freedom loving people are going to appease themselves into a corner.
“What is to be done,” was the question Lenin asked in the years leading up to the Russian Revolution. And I ask that question now, “What is to be done?” I just don’t have a ready answer for you because it seems — as of late 2023 — that it is a historical inevitability that Trump will win a second term and we’re just going to have to sort things out after that.
My fear is that Trump will attempt to use the legal magic pixie dust of the Insurrection Act to knock heads and the U.S. Military will balk at playing the part of some sort of later day SA. There is some sort of “Glorious Revolution” that deposes malignant ding-dong Trump, which, in turn provokes a Secession Crisis as Red States — who want a MAGA Nazi state — get upset and demand a National Divorce.
Before you know it, not only are WMD being used by both sides on U.S. soil, but fucking WW3 has broken out and about 1 billion people die as a number of nuclear-tipped regional conflicts turn hot. If we’re lucky, after a lot of tragic, needless death and destruction “the Good Guys” — people who believe in liberal democracy — win and we have some sort of Second Reconstruction in the context of a complete realignment of the global order — a New World Order, if you will.
But all of that is extremely speculative.
Remember, major historical events are value free while you’re living through them. There is no narrative. I mean, in 1942, your average American had no idea how WW2 was going to end. And, really, all things considered, WW2 ended in a very clean cut way — for the most part — such that The Good Guys won and the Bad Guys lost.
So, predicting what will happen starting in late 2024, early 2025 is impossible. We could very well just punt our problems down the road another four years and all my “hysterical doom shit” will be just that — hysterical doom shit. But I do think we need to think seriously about what the fuck we’re going to do when Trump makes good on his pledge to mass deport people.
And that doesn’t even begin to address what we’re going to do if Trump goes full tyrant and attempts to establish an actual military dictatorship. AND, Trump is fucking old, so it might not even be him who ultimately transitions us from an anocracy into a full Russian-style autocracy.
The thing I’m beginning to worry about is what are we going to do if Trump goes full tyrant? Anything? If Trump opens concentration camps for “illegal immigrants” it’s easy to imagine him flipping a switch and deciding to put people like ME in a camp.
Once you have that infrastructure built out, you can do anything with it.
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