The Proof is In The Pudding When It Comes To Civil War

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

For some time now, the MAGA Right has lobbed the threat of a “civil war” at anyone who dare oppose them. Then, of course, they turn around and claim it’s Blues who want a civil war. It’s all very curious.

The issue of a Second American Civil War is difficult to game out because what idiot MAGA people mean by using the term and what will actually happen are two different things. What MAGA MEANS by using the term “civil war” is “I’m so worked up about the browning of America and the increased economic, sexual and political agency of women I’m daydreaming about being able to murder people I disagree with politically without being charged.”

But in reality, I….just don’t know. As I’ve said before, there are two ways we’ll have a civil war — either because Trump loses and he demands a National Divorce because he wants to stay out of prison, OR Trump is re-elected and he’s so ham-handed in his tyranny that he gets deposed….which leads to Red States leaving the Union.

There is a HUGE difference between blathering on about a civil war on Fox News and actually risking your life for what you believe in in the real world. And, at this point, I just don’t know.

There are just too many different ways things could work out. It could be that even if Trump does lose and he demands a National Divorce, no one will listen to him and, lulz, we punt our structural political problems down the road another four years.

And it could be that so many smug Twitter liberals leave the country when Trump is re-elected that, welp, that’s it. Trump will be a Red King over Blue states and that will be that — America will join Turkey, Hungary and Russia as an autocratic state.

All I know is that 2024 – 2025 will be lit.

Is Trump Supposed To Be Above The Law?

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

There is something very curious about the reasoning of the anti-anti-Trump popinjays who blather on about how horrible it is that the Colorado Supreme Court took the wording of the 14th Amendment at face value and banned Trump from the ballot.

It really seems as though they think Trump should be above the law. They rather wanly use the fall back position of, “let the people decide,” and, yet Trump keeps breaking the law so they tie themselves into a logical pretzel to explain why what we all know to be true, isn’t true. Yes, Trump broke the law. And yes, Trump incited an Insurrection on January 6th.

But to according to anti-anti-Trump conservatives, holding Trump accountable is The End Times. All of this leads me to wonder if they have *any* red line. Is there *anything* Trump could possibly do that would make them side with small-d-democratic forces in opposition to Trump?

And it gets worse.

What happens should Trump be re-elected and he goes full-tyrant on Blues? Are they going to sit on their hands when Trump weaponizes the existing ICE infrastructure to put not only undocumented people in camps, but Jews, the mentally ill and gay people?

Will even that be acceptable? Will they just shrug and say, “Well, that’s what people voted for.” It’s all very sad because most anti-anti-Trump people are smart and well educated.

Anyway. Who knows what will happen.

A Civil War / Revolution Because of Ding-Dong Red King Trump Would S U C K

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

The issue about any sort of civil war or revolution because of ding-dong Trump thrashing around history is how much it would suck, suck, suck. It would be not sexy or fun. It would be a horrible tragedy.

And the more I think about it, the more I realize that we could very well be on the cusp of nothing short of the most powerful nation in the world bombing itself into the stone age because of…vibes. Once you start things like revolution and civil war, it is very, very difficult to stop it.

So, it’s very possible that we could have a solid decade of death and destruction starting in late 2024. Now that really sounds hysterical, but there is an air of inevitability when it comes to Trump coming to power again that is very eerie. It’s like we’ve just decided that we all have to “go through some things” to get it all out of our system.

And remember none of this catastrophic tragedy would happen in a geopolitical vacuum. If the United States is imploding, that will mean that the greater world is exploding into WW3. At least a billion people could die specifically and directly because of ding-dong Trump because he will have caused the US to implode into civil war / revolution.

I know how hysterical that all sounds, but we have to start taking shit like that seriously. We have to sit up and take notice about where things are heading. And part of that is taking seriously how bad this new, war-torn America would be for the everyday person.

The chief thing is how any form of communication would probably be a premium. Command and control would be the first thing each side of any war in the United States would try to knock out and, as such, there’s a good chance that once the ball started rolling most of us would have no idea what the fuck was going on outside of our immediate neighborhood.

And if the absolute worst happens, we’ll all be so busy struggling to eat and avoid various explosions that we just won’t have time to worry about what our pronouns are any other form of identity politics — it’s hard to be “woke” when everything is very, very existential on a daily basis.

But only time will tell. It could be I’m overthinking all of this and we’ll either drift peacefully into a MAGA themed autocracy or Trump will lose and he’ll just slink away into the political darkness.

We have about a year to find out.

What The Nattering Nabobs Of Negativism Aren’t Telling You About A Second Trump Term

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

It is becoming apparent to me that the usual suspects of the American intelligentsia are willfully hiding from the American public how fucking bad it will get if ding-dong Trump wins re-election.

The more I learn about Trump’s plans for his second term, the more alarmed I grow. The reason is — he wants to rule as a Red King over the Blue States. And somehow thinks that simply invoking the Insurrection Act will make all his dictatorial dreams come true.

And that is just not how these things work.

So, the smarty pants of The Atlantic are saying everything but the obvious — America is probably going to descend into civil war / revolution if Trump wins a second term for the simple fact that America 2025 is NOT Germany 1933.

Trump will have no MAGA SA at his disposal. The USA has a long history as a strong, stable democracy — it’s not the Weimar Republic. The US is far bigger and far more decentralized than the Weimar Republic of 1933. And, in general, the tool that Trump thinks he can use to knock heads — the U.S. Military — is a foundation of the American democratic tradition.

So, if it is Trump, rather than, say, Ron DeSantis, who gets the opportunity to become America’s Republican autocrat — shit is going to hit the fucking fan pretty quick. And the fine folks at The Atlantic apparently want to dance around this fact, rather than shake the American population by the shoulders and tell them DO YOU REALIZE WHAT IS GOING TO HAPPEN IF TRUMP WINS IN 20204????

I guess the nattering nabobs of negativism simply don’t want to scare people because at the moment it’s all rather abstract. I mean, we don’t KNOW what will happen in a Trump second term, we can only speculate. It definitely *seems* as though Trump will try to subjugate Blue States as a Red King, they will fight back and the country has something akin to a Blue “Glorious Revolution,” which, in turn causes a Red Secession Crisis and…we’re going to the show.

Blues may turn into Blue Meanies before 2025 is over with.

The greatest country the world has ever seen will implode because of…vibes? Because Red Alpha Males are strangely so insecure in their masculinity that they hate gay people? What the what?

But, here we are. It could be that in about a year the final bolts will fly off the United States and some rather dramatic events may happen. Or….Trump loses and he somehow has a brain transplant and slinks into the political night without demanding a National Divorce so he stays out of prison?

I just don’t know. I can’t predict the future. No one can. But I’m growing more and more alarmed!

The Political Rhetoric On The Right In The United States As We Enter The 2024 Election Cycle Is Beyond Bonkers

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

Some of the political rhetoric spewing out of the MAGA Republican right these days is so insane that it’s hard not to see how all of this ends in civil war / revolution or some sort of Pol Pot American Killing Fields. I mean, it is a tenant of faith at the moment in most Republican circles that Democrats personally kill a baby at least once a day.

And it continues to get worse. Trump keeps cribbing off of Nazi ideas in his speeches in a way to telegraph exactly what he plans to do. Now, there is something interesting to think about.

If Trump is re-elected, I assume he’ll go after undocumented people by dramatically building out the existing ICE infrastructure. But it definitely seems as though once things get going that MAGA is coming for gay people in a big way. But it won’t stop there — because form follows function, the Jews will inevitable be put in the camps along with the undocumented, the gay, and the mentally ill.

But, of course, none of this is going to happen in a political vacuum. And never forget that Trump doesn’t have an American SA to knock heads. He doesn’t have a nation-wide paramilitary group of a few million men to swoop in after he’s re-elected and bash the heads in of Blues to “persuade” them to keep their head down while Trump establishes Trumplandia.

The United States is just too diverse and decentralized for anyone — much less ding-dong Trump — to establish a military dictatorship without the assistance of an SA-like paramilitary group. So, even if 1 million smug Twitter liberals flee the country starting in late 2024, there will still be PLENTY of Blues who refuse to kowtow to Tyrant Trump.

What that will mean in real terms for the future of the country, I just don’t know. But we can all point to the bonkers Right wing rhetoric that’s being pumped out at the moment, a year before, as a sign of things to come.

Pondering How Trump Would, In Practical Terms, Be An American Dictator

When You Reach A Fork In The Road, Take It: America’s Political Choice In Late 2024, Early 2025

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

Here are my personal opinions as to why each one of the potential endgames might happen.
Civil War (Right)
* Trump simply will not accept defeat.
* As such, faced with the possibility of going to prison, Trump might demand a National Divorce to keep his sorry ass out of it.
* They say you go bankrupt gradually, then all at once, so the moment Trump begins to rant about the need for a National Divorce, it’s possible that states — probably starting with Texas — will take him up on it.
* Because of corrosive issues like abortion and guns, it’s possible that the whole system will collapse given some added pressure.

Punt

* Something unexpected could happen like happened in 2020.
* It’s always possible that even if Trump demands a National Divorce after losing, Red States may choke and not initiate a Secession Crisis.
* There’s no evidence that we’re actually on the cusp of a civil war.
Revolution (Left)

* Trump is so stupid and so lazy that rather than do basic autocratic moves, he could go full tyrant — in Blue States at least — in such a way that pisses people off so much that they want to overthrow Trump.
* It’s possible that Trump could be so brazen and chaotic in his tyranny in Blue States that people who would otherwise be pretty chill with an *autocrat* will freak the fuck out if Trump is actual *dictator*.
* Any sort of “revolution” against Tyrant Trump would be extremely risky and might only serve to make him more powerful in the end.

*It’s possible that because so many smug liberals have left the country after election day that there won’t be any leadership left to direct any sort of “revolution” against Tyrant Trump


The Red King: Trump Will Rule Blue America As a Tyrant

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

It is clear to me that Trump’s “dictatorship” will actually be more of a hybrid than a true dictatorship. He essentially wants to use the power of Red States to force Blue States to submit to his will. This is, of course, a very volatile situation with no apparent endgame.

It’s not like Trump is hiding what he wants to do, though. In the now notorious Sean Hannity interview, it went out of his way to use the word “dictatorship.” I can only imagine that this is a bit of FUD on his part. He wants to stoke the energy of the base while scaring the shit out of, well, people like me.

Trump says there are two things he wants to do for his “one day dictatorship.” He wants to close the border and “drill baby drill.” Why he couldn’t do either one of those things by using the traditional governance in the United States is something of a mystery. (America is pumping out oil at an unpreceded level.)

Given what we know how ding-dong’s mind works, by the time the election rolls around, he will pretty much be saying “I WILL BE A DICATOR” at the top of his lungs. And people will still vote for him.

I just don’t see how this is going to work. Yes, he could re-imagine the U.S. Military in his own imagine. But for two things — one, the American Military is a democratic institution on an existential basis. And two, what ding-dong really wants is an SA to knock heads. And the Blue portions of the US are so huge and populated that…oh boy. He would have to organize and build out an American SA of no less than 500,000 shock troops.

It would take time to do that. And the whole country could be collapsing into political chaos as he was calling up the “good old boy reserves” in rural Red States. It would just take time. The Nazi SA was built out over the course of a decade. Tyrant Trump has made it clear he wants to be a dictator from the get-go, so, I dunno.

It will be a curious time in American politics and history.

King Trump For a Day

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

What are we to make of this? There are two things to take into consideration. One, Trump lies all the time, so it seems as though it may be more than just “one day’ that he wants to be a tyrant.

Meanwhile, in the past at least, Trump was too dumb and lazy to actually do some pretty basic autocratic things. That may have changed, however, for various reasons. It could be that Trump could very well do all the autocratic things that he promises to do — “on day one.”

This brings up the issue of my own personal exposure. While I think I’m *fairly* safe — at least at first — my concern if we really are transitioned into a military dictatorship that things could get…hot…for me where I live. I could become one of millions of American who flee my home to somewhere that better fits my own personal politics.

But, it gets worse.

Virginia where I live is actually two states one Blue, one Red, fused together who hate each other. If there is any sort of “National Divorce” or even a “Glorious Revolution” Virginia is going to implode into intra-state civil war. The whole thing would be a massive clusterfuck with no ready endgame.

And, yet, here we are — it definitely seems as the moment that a Trump second term, with all its hellscape elements, is now inevitable.

I’ve Figured Out Trump’s 2025 Strategy

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

Some scenarios for the day after tomorrow:

  1. Trump Loses — gives up
    It’s a real possibility that all the wet dreams of earnest, well meaning liberals like Mueller, She Wrote will come true and lulz, not only does Trump lose, but he just gives up. The “Good Guys” win and that’s it. We punt our structural problems down the road another four years.
  2. Trump Loses — demands a National Divorce
    In this scenario, Trump loses, but instead of just slinking away, he frantically demands a National Divorce. A lot — A LOT — would depend on, say, Texas in this scenario. There is a greater-than-zero chance that Texas could very well call up a Secessionist Convention if Trump demanded a National Divorce. This would, in turn, cause a civil war.
  3. Too Close to call (1876 / 2000 endgame)
    If this happens, then, holy shit are we in trouble. The country would collapse into civil war and revolution. If we just didn’t know who the next president was going to be…whoa buddy. Chaos. Violence. Collapse. Fourth Turning.
  4. Biden Loses — It’s a Lulz
    If Biden loses and 1 million smug Twitter liberals leave the country ASAP, then, lulz, we turn into an autocracy and that’s that. We wake up in a few years and President-for-Life Trump is invading Canada for some dumb reason.
  5. Biden Loses — Glorious Revolution
    In this scenario, Trump wins but goes full Tyrant in such a way that Blues stand their ground and organize things like a General Strike and or a Women’s Strike. The U.S. Military, rather than being Trump’s SA goons, stands down and maybe uses the guise of the 14th Amendment to overthrow Trump and we have President James Mattis for a few months until a Constitutional Convention can be called up.
  6. The 1872 Election Endgame
    Look it up. It’s bad

Here’s how malignant ding-dong Trump plans to rule starting in late January 2025 if he wins re-election.

On a basic level, his animal brain knows he can rely upon Red States to give him free reign to be a more traditional autocrat. As such, he realizes he has two things standing his way — Blue States and the “Deep State” found lurking within the Federal government.

So, what he believes he can do is purge the Federal government of anyone who opposes him, knowing that he can rely upon the MAGA hacks of SCOTUS to back him up. He will also use his pardon power in a gratuitous manner to allow his fascist toadies to do any number of otherwise illegal things.

Then what he does is “crush” opposition in Blue States using the U.S. Military using the Insurrection Act. So, in Blue parts of the country Trump plans to rule not as an autocrat, but as a military dictator. Meanwhile, he will browbeat the national press so no one will know how bad things have gotten in Blue States. Remember — in an autocracy, communication can be a weapon. I could even see domestic social media being regulated to an unprecended extent as 2025 progresses.

Ok. There are some weaknesses to this plot. The key one being the United States is pretty porous to the point that if the U.S. Military was killing thousands of people in Blue States, it would inevitably be discovered in Red and Purple States. ALSO, I’m not 100% sure that the U.S. Military is totally prepared to be Trump’s MAGA SA-like goons.

But I have to give Trump credit, he’s a lot closer to being the type of autocrat he admires. But there are at least two issues he simply can not avoid — the whole setup will be EXTREMELY UNSTABLE and he’s fucking old.

I feel better now, though. I have figured out what we’re up against should Trump win in 2024.