Now I’m worried that deep in the bowels of the Internet aether I’ve annoyed the liberal white women that make up most of the literary agent class, even before I’ve begun to query my first novel. All I can say is — I mean well. And I’m generally a fan of liberal white women. (Even if I do sometimes use them as a class as something of a comic foil in some of my drunk political rants.)
But what I’m NOT a fan of is being attacked for being a smelly CIS white male writing from a female POV. Or being forced to debate how many of my characters can dance on the head of the Bechdel Test pin. And I am who I am. Come what may.
I don’t MEAN to annoy anyone, but I’m not going to fake who I am. And, in general, I think literary agents will find me endearing, thoughtful and interesting — if they’re willing to give me a chance.
And, yet, who knows. I still have a few more months before I finish a stable third draft of the novel. Then there will be the struggle to find — and afford — a manuscript consultant to take the novel to the next level. And all of this will be happening in the context of a Petite Singularity / Fourth Turning in late 2024, early 2025.
We live in strange times. My far more conservative relative — whom I love dearly — really lives in a totally different universe than I do. They have a pretty well thought-out series of talking points that he has been fed through all the Right-wing podcasts they listen to.
They think all the investigations into Trump are nothing more than “lawfare.” They think the economy is horrible. They think the armies of Russia and China are soooo much more powerful than ours because they’re not “woke.” I tried my best to point out how wrong all of that was on a strictly factual basis, but I don’t know how successful I was.
The point remains — the proof will be in the pudding should Trump get re-elected and he start to do things that are so totally bonkers that even Traditionalists who are “MAGA curious” will sit up and take notice. If Trump goes full tyrant to the point that Traditionalists — who otherwise love, love, love his policies — throw up their hands in disgust…everyone, not just Trump, will have a real problem on their hands.
That is crux of the issue going forward — is there *any* red line that Traditionalists will have should the time come? Is there *any* tyrannical thing that Trump might do that will cause them to say, “enough is enough” and support whatever last-ditch direct action might be thought up to get rid of Trump?
The entirety of the American democratic experience hinges on what Traditionalists decide at that point.
Another holiday season, another polite, but heated, debate with my far more conservative relative. It is clear to me that the center-Right and the center-Left in the US live in totally different realities now.
While I’m not suggesting that the U.S. economy is perfect, in general, it’s doing quite well in relative terms. But to hear my conservative relative talk, you’d think we were in the middle of a Second Great Depression. I finally had to make it clear that I actually had facts to back me up, if need be, just like they had all these fact about how horrible COVID lockdowns were.
This is a prime example of how fucked we are going into the 2024 election. It could be that we’re so divided that even though the economy is doing generally well enough people on the center-Right will be wrapped up in the “vibesession” that Trump will come roaring back.
And I don’t think we really appreciate how fucking bad a second Trump administration will be. It will far, far worse than any of us could possibly imagine. The key issue is, of course, what the reaction of the average person will be when Trump starts snatching people off the streets.
New York Magazine is one of those establishment liberal publications that gives you some insight into what the “conventional wisdom” of the Costal Elites is. And I’m very annoyed by their belief that SCOTUS shouldn’t, well, read Section 3 of the 14th Amendment for what it say — Trump is disqualified from running again.
Any normal human being reading the 14th Amendment would say Trump is banned from office. And, yet, apparently, New York Magazine thinks that because of the risk of fascist violence on the part of MAGA, SCOTUS should punt the problem or do whatever necessary to allow Trump to run.
One argument that New York Magazine makes that I agree with is No One Is Going To Save Us. I totally agree with them on that. Trump is a symptom, not a cause and, as such, we have to prepare for the worst — either autocracy or revolution / civil war.
But at the same time, I believe we should follow the law, and the actual words of the 14th Amendment bans Trump from office. We can’t be intimidated by the threat of MAGA fascist violence into bending to their will. That sort of appeasement didn’t work with Hitler in the 1930s and it won’t work now.
At the moment, now, in late 2023, I’m not prepared to predict that all of my hysterical doom shit might actually happen starting in late 2024, early 2025. It’s just not easy to comprehend that the greatest nation in the world might collapse into civil war / revolution because malignant ding-dong Trump goes full tyrant.
The only reason why I think it’s possible is the Republican Party has so radicalized that any additional pressure on our political system might be enough for the whole thing to come crashing down. We’re dealing with macro demographic and political trends that definitely SEEM to all be heading towards some sort of climax in late 2024, early 2025.
But it could that, just like in 2020, we manage to punt our problems down the road another four years and all my dire predictions will look rather silly. And that’s the outcome I want. It’s not like I *want* the United States to turn into a MAGA-themed autocracy or have a revolution / civil war.
All I can say is, wait and see. Everything is still up in the air and could go either way.
The thing that so many well-meaning Traditionalist miss about their dreams of deporting several million undocumented people from the US is if you build out that much infrastructure you can use it for OTHER people as well.
That is the crux of how delusional so many conservative Traditionalists are. They live in a la-la land where only brown people they don’t like will be put in concentration camps and deported. They are willfully ignorant of how gays, Jews, the mentally ill and “liberals” will ALSO be put in these camps simply because the means to do so will exist.
And that will be the moment when the “Good Americans” will have to make a decision, at last, as to if they have *any* Red Line when it comes to Trump. I hope I’m wrong about all of this. I really do. I hope everyone gets to laugh at me for my “hysterical doom shit” when Biden wins re-election and, lulz, Trump just drifts into historical obscurity.
But…oh boy. It definitely SEEMS as though late 2024, early 2025 is IT. Some really fucking disturbing things may happen on a macro scale that we simply have never seen before.
For some time now, the MAGA Right has lobbed the threat of a “civil war” at anyone who dare oppose them. Then, of course, they turn around and claim it’s Blues who want a civil war. It’s all very curious.
The issue of a Second American Civil War is difficult to game out because what idiot MAGA people mean by using the term and what will actually happen are two different things. What MAGA MEANS by using the term “civil war” is “I’m so worked up about the browning of America and the increased economic, sexual and political agency of women I’m daydreaming about being able to murder people I disagree with politically without being charged.”
But in reality, I….just don’t know. As I’ve said before, there are two ways we’ll have a civil war — either because Trump loses and he demands a National Divorce because he wants to stay out of prison, OR Trump is re-elected and he’s so ham-handed in his tyranny that he gets deposed….which leads to Red States leaving the Union.
There is a HUGE difference between blathering on about a civil war on Fox News and actually risking your life for what you believe in in the real world. And, at this point, I just don’t know.
There are just too many different ways things could work out. It could be that even if Trump does lose and he demands a National Divorce, no one will listen to him and, lulz, we punt our structural political problems down the road another four years.
And it could be that so many smug Twitter liberals leave the country when Trump is re-elected that, welp, that’s it. Trump will be a Red King over Blue states and that will be that — America will join Turkey, Hungary and Russia as an autocratic state.
Fox News is at it again. They definitely seem to want to spark a civil war for no other reasons than “vibes.” They — and the rest of the MAGA Right — spend all their fucking time blathering about how Blues are going to “force” them into a civil war and then they come out with bullshit like this.
Ugh.
I don’t know what to tell you. It definitely seems as though we’re careening towards a very dark future in late 2024, early 2025. The seeds are being sown for a civil war or revolution at some point within the next 18 months or so. I definitely don’t want any such thing to happen, but we have to accept that it’s very possible.
I’m reading a lot about the rise of the Nazi Party these days — as one does — and the most telling thing about it all is what a Great Man of History Hitler was. He did not just drift through history, he bent it to his will. Even though he was unfocused and sometimes lazy, when the time came to strike, he was willing to do the hard work necessary to further his greater political ambition.
MEANWHILE, malignant ding-dong Trump is nothing more than a vessel, an avatar for white Christian (male) rage over the browning of America and the increasing sexual, political and economic agency of women. He really doesn’t have to do anything. His followers imbue him with their hopes and dreams because they see him as a “fighter” who will “own the libs” every single opportunity he has.
But, if you’re not a member of the MAGA cult, it’s clear that Trump is very very dumb and very very lazy. He is so lazy and has a such poor abstract cognitive abilities that he had four years to consolidate autocratic rule in the United States — that was what he was elected to do by his supporters in the first place — and he waited until the very, very, very, very last moment to actually do anything.
That is not at all what someone like Hitler would have done.
And, now, we have Trump’s second attempt.
If — and this is a big if — Trump wins re-election in 2024, then he will have thousands of toadies willing to be a MAGA “deep state” that will corrupt the administration of justice and power to the point that the United States will join Turkey, Hungary and Russia as just another autocratic state.
But there two issues when thinking about this.
One is, while I fear if Trump loses that he will demand a National Divorce — and, as such a civil war — to keep his sorry ass out of jail, he is so unpredictable, and so lazy, that it could be that for all his ranting about the need for a National Divorce in late 2024 if he loses…nothing happens. We punt our severe structural problems down the road about four years and all my “hysterical doom shit” will be laughed at. (I really want this outcome!)
Meanwhile if Trump WINS, things really get unpredictable because he won’t be smooth about the implementation of autocracy like a President DeSantis might be. He will go for the jugular of American democratic institutions in such a way that he will piss of A LOT of people who would otherwise just shrug and let him slowly consolidate power.
If Trump literally starts to snatch political opponents of the street in early 2025 there will be a lot of people — many of whom even voted for him — who will sit up and take notice. A lot — A LOT of Traditionalists just want brown kids put back in cages and they would be horrified if Trump used the weaponized ICE infrastructure to put Jews, the gay and the mentally ill in camps as well.
A lot of Traditionalists mean well but when things get personal, they will, at last, reach a red line that they simply haven’t had to date. When a Traditionalist’s bonkers relative is sent to a camp to “make sure they take their medication” without due process then Trump is going to have a problem.
This brings up an interesting situation — if Trump really does try to deport 20 million undocumented people in the United States, that is going to cause a massive amount of political, social and economic chaos. And without anyone to stop him trying to do this, all that chaos is going to not only rile a lot of Blues and Traditionalists up, but it will give rise of Radical Moderates who won’t just rant on Twitter about how upset they are — they will take direct action like General Strikes. (NOT ADVOCATING ANYTHING!)
Another issue — what the fuck is going to happen with the U.S. Military? That’s the thing I keep learning about with Hitler. The SA were instrumental to his consolidation of power in 1933. Trump coming into office in 2025 won’t have any sort of build-out paramilitary group at his disposal. He’ll have the U.S. Military, but the American military is, at its heart, a democratic institution and I struggle to believe it will be all that happy with being Trump’s goons.
Of course, it’s possible Trump will lean into weaponizing the existing ICE infrastructure, but even then the US is a huge, decentralized nation with a well established democratic tradition. Trump’s dream of ruling Blue portions of the country as a Red King will take time to implement, even under the best of conditions.
So if Trump wins in 2024, I simply can’t tell you what might happen in 2025. It’s very possible that Trump could be his own worst enemy. He will be so hateful and excited to strike back and everyone he feels has slighted him that he will make a sizable portion of the American population very, very upset.
But I can’t predict that future. I’m just *trying* make an educated guess.
There is something very curious about the reasoning of the anti-anti-Trump popinjays who blather on about how horrible it is that the Colorado Supreme Court took the wording of the 14th Amendment at face value and banned Trump from the ballot.
It really seems as though they think Trump should be above the law. They rather wanly use the fall back position of, “let the people decide,” and, yet Trump keeps breaking the law so they tie themselves into a logical pretzel to explain why what we all know to be true, isn’t true. Yes, Trump broke the law. And yes, Trump incited an Insurrection on January 6th.
But to according to anti-anti-Trump conservatives, holding Trump accountable is The End Times. All of this leads me to wonder if they have *any* red line. Is there *anything* Trump could possibly do that would make them side with small-d-democratic forces in opposition to Trump?
And it gets worse.
What happens should Trump be re-elected and he goes full-tyrant on Blues? Are they going to sit on their hands when Trump weaponizes the existing ICE infrastructure to put not only undocumented people in camps, but Jews, the mentally ill and gay people?
Will even that be acceptable? Will they just shrug and say, “Well, that’s what people voted for.” It’s all very sad because most anti-anti-Trump people are smart and well educated.
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